UConn, last year and this year
Based on comments I've seen on the boards, it seems that not too many people are familiar with the University of Connecticut football team. A great deal of people believe that this game is an absolute must-win in order for Rodriguez to have any sort of credibility. While I do believe it would be an important win, UConn is by no means a cupcake opponent.
First, lets take a look at 2009.
Difference of 10 gets a 1 letter advantage
Difference of 50 gets a 2 letter advantage
Difference of 90 gets a 3 letter advantage
Final Sagarin Rankings:
Uconn: 28
UM: 81 (EEK!)
Now on to 2010!
Departing Contributors Offense:
UConn:
HB Andre Dixon: 2nd leading rusher on team. Start still in place.
WR Brad Canuch: 3rd leading receiver on team. Top 2 receivers still in place.
LT Dan Ryan: Followed by a RS Sophomore
RT Mike Hicks: Followed by a RS Junior
Top QB, 3 WR's, and HB all return
UM:
HB Brandon Minor: Leading rusher on team. Most likely replaced by a sophomore.
HB Carlos Brown: 2nd leading rusher on team. Most likely replaced by a sophomore.
WR Greg Matthews: 2nd leading receiver on team. Top receiver still in place.
OL Mark Ortmann: Replaced by ?
C David Mooseman (he played it most of the year): Replaced by original starter
Departing Contributors, Defense:
Uconn:
DE Lindsey Whitten: Replaced by a redshirt senior.
CB Robert McClain: Replaced by a redshirt sophomore.
CB Jasper Howard (deceased): Replaced by a redshirt sophomore
FS Robert Vaught: Replaced by a true sophomore.
UM:
DE Brandom Graham: Replaced by redshirt junior (RVB)
LB Stevie Brown: Replaced by true freshman (?)
CB Donovan Warren: Replaced by reshirt or true freshman
How was UConn last year?
Last year, UConn finished 8-5 after in a rather odd season. That record may not, however, be indicative of their talent level, as following the death of starting CB Jasper Howard, they went on a three game slide. During two of these games, the Huskies thoroughly outgained the opposing teams. The third, however, was a three point loss to top 5 Cincinnati after being statistically dominated. Like Michigan, the Huskies barely edged out Notre Dame, and munched on delicious cuppy cakes for many of their victories. Unlike Michigan, however, Uconn went bowling and beat the South Carolina Gamecocks in a strange and ugly game.
How will UConn be this year?
UConn is a team very similar to Michigan this year when it comes to personnel. They will be returning nearly all of their offensive firepower from a team which had a solid rushing attack and an OK passing attack in Big East play. Look for them to take a step up offensively this year, as UConn seems to be a program on the rise based on previous years. The similarities between Michigan and UConn don't stop on the offensive side of the ball. Like Michigan, much of the Connecticut secondary will be untested and young. Where Michigan lost players to the draft and team ejection, Connecticut lost theirs due to graduation and unfortunately, murder.
Prediction Based on ridiculously early evidence?
Michigan wins in a shootout. Many people are writing off this game as an almost certain win, but it very well could be one of the scariest games on the schedule. UConn will be a good team if their defensive players develop and the offense lives up to its potential. Still, I just don't see the Big East offensive linemen creating any holes against Martin and the boys for their pro-style offense. With our Freshman quarterback no longer being a Freshman, and our two best receivers finally being on the field at the same time, I see UM's offense improving more than Uconn's. Plus, Richrod owns Randy Edsall.
2004: WVU 27-6
2005: WVU 45- 13
2006: WVU 37-11
2007: WVU 66-21
First, lets take a look at 2009.
Difference of 10 gets a 1 letter advantage
Difference of 50 gets a 2 letter advantage
Difference of 90 gets a 3 letter advantage
Final Sagarin Rankings:
Uconn: 28
UM: 81 (EEK!)
Now on to 2010!
Departing Contributors Offense:
UConn:
HB Andre Dixon: 2nd leading rusher on team. Start still in place.
WR Brad Canuch: 3rd leading receiver on team. Top 2 receivers still in place.
LT Dan Ryan: Followed by a RS Sophomore
RT Mike Hicks: Followed by a RS Junior
Top QB, 3 WR's, and HB all return
UM:
HB Brandon Minor: Leading rusher on team. Most likely replaced by a sophomore.
HB Carlos Brown: 2nd leading rusher on team. Most likely replaced by a sophomore.
WR Greg Matthews: 2nd leading receiver on team. Top receiver still in place.
OL Mark Ortmann: Replaced by ?
C David Mooseman (he played it most of the year): Replaced by original starter
Departing Contributors, Defense:
Uconn:
DE Lindsey Whitten: Replaced by a redshirt senior.
CB Robert McClain: Replaced by a redshirt sophomore.
CB Jasper Howard (deceased): Replaced by a redshirt sophomore
FS Robert Vaught: Replaced by a true sophomore.
UM:
DE Brandom Graham: Replaced by redshirt junior (RVB)
LB Stevie Brown: Replaced by true freshman (?)
CB Donovan Warren: Replaced by reshirt or true freshman
How was UConn last year?
Last year, UConn finished 8-5 after in a rather odd season. That record may not, however, be indicative of their talent level, as following the death of starting CB Jasper Howard, they went on a three game slide. During two of these games, the Huskies thoroughly outgained the opposing teams. The third, however, was a three point loss to top 5 Cincinnati after being statistically dominated. Like Michigan, the Huskies barely edged out Notre Dame, and munched on delicious cuppy cakes for many of their victories. Unlike Michigan, however, Uconn went bowling and beat the South Carolina Gamecocks in a strange and ugly game.
How will UConn be this year?
UConn is a team very similar to Michigan this year when it comes to personnel. They will be returning nearly all of their offensive firepower from a team which had a solid rushing attack and an OK passing attack in Big East play. Look for them to take a step up offensively this year, as UConn seems to be a program on the rise based on previous years. The similarities between Michigan and UConn don't stop on the offensive side of the ball. Like Michigan, much of the Connecticut secondary will be untested and young. Where Michigan lost players to the draft and team ejection, Connecticut lost theirs due to graduation and unfortunately, murder.
Prediction Based on ridiculously early evidence?
Michigan wins in a shootout. Many people are writing off this game as an almost certain win, but it very well could be one of the scariest games on the schedule. UConn will be a good team if their defensive players develop and the offense lives up to its potential. Still, I just don't see the Big East offensive linemen creating any holes against Martin and the boys for their pro-style offense. With our Freshman quarterback no longer being a Freshman, and our two best receivers finally being on the field at the same time, I see UM's offense improving more than Uconn's. Plus, Richrod owns Randy Edsall.
2004: WVU 27-6
2005: WVU 45- 13
2006: WVU 37-11
2007: WVU 66-21
Odd, I hit preview and it posted...
do you think these numbers are skewed by toughness of schedule?
I hope so.
I absolutely think so... but on both ends. 60 of our points came against Delaware State. Still, I'd take your average B10 team over your average Big East team any day.
Crappy conference: overrated team. The undefeated Big East champion, Cincinnati, got blown out by the worst Florida team since Tebow's sophomore year.
They are a great basketball conference, but they aren't that great a football conference since RR left. UM will go back to being an upper-level Big Ten team this year. UConn will be a mid-to-upper level Big East team. UConn won't be a MAC walkover, but Michigan would have to play very far beneath their talent level for UConn to beat them.
I don't see that happening.
I get your sentiment, and might even agree with it but for that first line. "The worst Florida team since Tebow's Sophomore year." You mean two years ago? When they won 9 games. And I mean, worst is a really relative scale here. We are still discussing a team that went 13-1. It's not like they were a shocking disappointment of a squad, like say the Michigan team from Tebow's Sophomore year.
I totally agree that the UCONN game is not a cupcake. They've had some pretty decent rushing statistics the last few years, though I guess the question remains how the HB and OL replacements will fair. Hopefully our D-line will be up to the task and our LBs will show some substantial improvement in 2010.
I'm really hoping that 1 D-Coordinator over 2 years will have some impact! Come on Gerg! Do a Stevie Brown on them!
I will be honest, this game makes me nervous. I think this is a big game for lots of reasons and Michigan needs to be ready for them.
UConn is a somewhat favorable matchup for Michigan, since Randy Edsall isn't the type to air it out every down and take advantage of Michigan's extremely young secondary. But I still expect us to lose this one. Regardless, I don't think that it's necessary to point out that UConn isn't a cupcake anymore, since they might be a slight favorite in this game when the line comes out.
This is not Baby Seal U.
Have no doubt Coach knows how much we need a good old fashioned ass-whuppin' in the Big House.
We will be ready.
Sorry to nit pick but you do know that that animal is a coyote and not a husky right?
Yeah, but I'm pretty sure husky hunting is illegal since they are domesticated and all.
Thats a valid point. Hunting husky would be too easy, no sport involved.
March 11th, 2010 at 12:04 PM ^
Here boy, here boy! That's a good boy...BANG!
From anonymous Internet sources, the Freep has found that Rich Rod returns to his West Virginian roots, goes hunting, and kills dogs, possibly setting off a PETA demonstration on the Diag. He apparently consulted with Michael Vick first. In an exclusive interview with Terrelle Pryor, the former recruit offers support for Rich: "Not everybody’s the perfect person in the world. I mean everyone kills … murders ... whatever."
If this game were at UConn I think they would be favored. I think we'll have the edge only because we're at home and because teams coming off disappointing seasons often get way up for their first real game of the year. A loss wouldn't surprise me at all, but my best guess is that we win something like 31-24.
Even if this game were at UConn I think we would be favored. I think we'll have the edge because we're awesome and because 2010/11 is the year of redemption. A loss would tear apart the fabric of space/time, so my best guess is that we win something like 310 - -24.
Fixed your post. :)
You forgot to mention that UConn is losing Marcus Easley, who had 900 receiving yards last year and is projected to be a decently high NFL draft pick.
I believe this game will be a shootout, and the readiness of our young secondary players will determine whether it is a W or L.
March 11th, 2010 at 12:43 PM ^
I don't think Uconn will be able to run the ball. But in my thinking, they might not have to. Our secondary is extremely young. Uconn's secondary is also very young. Which secondary will get it together the fastest will be the winner. Anyone else worried about special teams? Freshman starting at punter and kicking field goals can't be a great thing.
i feel like Randy Edsel would be a good name for a character in the XXX version of "Cars."
Great. The trepidation on the board is reverting to the fear everyone had of Western Michigan, a 9-game winner in 2008.
Michigan is going to win this game. They will have too much talent on the field, regardless of age, and enough of the talent will have experience required to beat the Huskies.
Uh, Big East.
The Big East is the weakest BCS conference, but it is still a BCS conference. The MAC is not, and for very good reason. The top MAC teams routinely get smeared by BCS opponents. I'm not saying we're going to lose; I'm just saying that the arrogance some of us have with regards to who we 'will' beat is a bit off.
March 10th, 2010 at 11:11 PM ^
Yep, our main concern is overconfidence.
I certainly remember being quite nervous for that Western game. First time in 25 years of Michigan fandom was I nervous about a home opener.
I'm sure I'll be nervous for this one, too. Hopefully, when RR and company get this machine humming at 100%, there will be no more reason to be nervous.
I think the atmosphere is going to be crazy with the Big House being done and I think we have to much speed for Connecticut to be honest. I think we will get the win but I will be nervous watching the game.
Check out the ESPN big east blog from march 8th. There's an interview with Edsall and I gotta say that the guy and UConn scare me a bit. I know rich rod has dominated UConn in the past but these guys are gonna come to play.
I truly believe that Michigan is going to get back on track next year but if UConn comes in and beats us in the big house I'll be preparing myself for another season of misery.
This game scares the hell out of me . . . forget about how tough the Big East is, this isn't a bad team. And there will be so much pressure to win on both the Michigan coaches and the players. Going on the road to ND in week 2 and potentially starting 0-2 would create pressure like there's never been in Ann Arbor before.
Let's just hope the atmosphere and supportive crowd in the Big House along with superior talent are enough to make up for the pressure and Michigan's relative lack of experience. It should be a great home opener.
Honestly, Notre Dame doesn't scare me all that much next year. They still have no defense, and will be breaking in a brand new QB (Christe may or may not be healthy), and an almost entirely new offensive line.
If we were playing Notre Dame at the end of the season, I'd be a bit worried. However, there is just no way they are able to compete by game 2.
Having a starting QB out for spring practice while trying to learn a new system doesn't usually translate to early on-field success.
I read this and I know it makes sense, but that doesn't remove the images of Brian Kelly turning every QB he touches into gold from my head. I would not be surprised if I barfed from nerves before these games, and I never, never chuck it.
I'm not trying to belittle our opponent, but I think Michigan wins this game by 2 TD's.
I am all Blue but have lived in Connecticut for 20 years and have followed UCONN closely.
One point worth noting. UCONN didn't move to Division 1-A in football until 2000 and did not join the Big East until 2004. RR "owned" Edsall when UCONN was basically starting their program - wouldn't put too much stock in that one. Edsall deserves a lot of credit for sticking with the program while they obviously struggled and is reaping the rewards. UCONN's recruiting classes are ranked nowhere near the top teams they have either beaten or been competitive with. He is a very good coach and very popular here.
I believe we should win the game but they will show up to play.
UConn still tied for the Big East title in 2007 and went to bowls in two of those four years. I know they weren't really a big time program but they were further ahead than most when moving up to big time football.
I am terrified of this matchup. UConn will run the ball relentlessly, so our defensive line and linebackers will have to come together quickly. Campbell, Martin, Roh, and RVB will have the spotlight on them throughout fall camp as they'll be tested very early. My fear, though, is more about play action getting over the top of of the linebackers much like it did during the Wisconsin game.
In my opinion, though, there is a difference in physicality between Big Ten and Big East teams. I have hope in our defensive line and linebackers since we return a lot of experience in the front seven. If we aren't dominating the trenches by the second half I would be worried.
Real nice breakdown.
I thought this UConn game would be tough from the day it was announced, and nothing I saw last year from either team changes that opinion. UConn would well be a top-25 team at the start of next year, and will certainly not be afraid about playing UM to start the season. This will be the marquee OOC game for both teams, and I agree that it will be one of those shoot-out wins, hopefully with the good guys coming out on top.
I think we are going to come out firing on all cylinders, similar to the showing against Western Michigan. That being said, I'm still scared. We should win, but that means nothing.
As long as our offense improves as much as it should and we can HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL I think we should win this game. UConn will certainly be able to score on us, but from what I've seen they are the type of team that likes to pound the ball up the middle, and I feel like our defensive line should at least hold them in check. The keys will be Mouton and Ezeh not getting lost on play action or cutback runs and our young secondary containing big plays.
Not to be annoyingly sensationalistic, but Michigan will be playing against a team likely ranked in/near the top 25 and loaded with experience in a game that could not only have significantly crushing ramifications on the season, but also the future of RR at Michigan.
I can't help feeling this way. There is just so much riding on this game, especially with a young team more prone to being influenced by momentum.
I think Michigan wins in a close one. But because of what I think this game could mean, I will probably have post-rival-victory jubilation afterward.
I am also pretty worried about this game. A loss would be absolutely devastating since a lot of people see UConn as a cupcake, even though they definitely are not. People would be going after RR's head even more than they are now if UM was to drop this game.
On the other hand, I am excited beyond belief for this game. The stadium will be done, the offense should be better(please God don't hurt Molk), hopefully the secondary will step up, and most of all it will be my first game in the Big House as a UM student.
They're going to go after RR's head after any and every loss. Par for the course. Even if we go 11-1, somebody will complain about the loss.
It is reckless to take any opponent for granted, and I'm sure the troops on the field will take UConn very seriously. That being said, I love that UConn is ranked. Thumping a ranked Colorado team in '97 was one of my favorite season-opening Wolverine wins ever. I believe that with a ranked opponent come the opportunities not only to make an impression with the voters but also to build real confidence for the team. When the team thumps a cupcake, they know they've thumped a cupcake. Wins are good, but hollow wins against hollow opponents don't fool anybody, voters or players. I am more excited for an event almost 6 months from now than I've been in quite some time.
Go Blue!!
predicts a UM shootout win (albeit with reservation.) This is going to be a game. I don't see Mich coming out on top here as yet.
I can't wait to see progress at the Spring game. That said, I like the uptick in schedule difficulty. UConn is much better than Western Michigan. This will be a target game for the team. I'm sure the coaches and players are not going to take this for granted. These are all quality losses on UConn's part last year.
Straight up comparisons don't look good looking back to 2009.
While I do agree that UConn looks to be the favorite by the numbers from the previous season, you have to take the freshman quarterback factor into account, and the fact that UConn put up these numbers in the Big East, not the Big Ten. Also, in my opinion Michigan has a more physically talented team which will not be pushed around by UConn's power running game. The secondary could be very ugly for both teams, however.
UConn graduates their power back, and only has the speed guy left. He is definitely a good player, but I question how effective he will be without the power guy. UConn has a terrible secondary, so I imagine we will utilize the vertical passing game to set up the run.
The UConn defense struggled against mobile QB's last year. If Tate isn't getting the job done early, we might see Denard or Devin in the second half. Bottom line......we are adding a few weapons to the offense which teams will not be prepared defensively for. We should certainly be able to outscheme UConn's defense, and hopefully ours can get a few takeaways.
If we can shut down the running game and prevent a late game comeback, I think momentum carries us to a 10 point victory.
Part of my martial arts cirriculum includes some of the Filipino systems. The Filipinos were feared on the battlefield because they were deeply religious. They believed that the outcome of any battle was preordained by God, so they went to battle with a balls to the wall attitude. While it would not be wise to underestimate UCONN, I wont the boys in blue to go out with the same attitude and kick ass first and take names later.
There's a difference between the players having trepidation vs. a bunch of fans on a blog site in March.
March 12th, 2010 at 12:25 PM ^
...will play a major role here. Tate seems to thrive off the crowd, and I think the D will step up.
Final score: Michigan 31, UConn 24
several close games of the season that will make a difference between 8 wins or 4 wins. I think Tate will lead us on a last minute drive to win 31 to 28! A loss, as long as it is close, will not mean the end of the season. Though the teams confidence will be shaken. I'm a bit worried about the next game on the road at ND. An opening game loss at home will make the trip to South Bend huge!
Comments