Trying to Calculate Improvement
I've always looked at Phil Steele's returning starters as a guide to help betting early in the year. As we have struggled the past couple of years I have found myself continually waiting for next year as we have so many people coming back(I still think 2011 is the year for us to move back into the BCS permanently).
There was a post a while back summing up the returning starters in the Big Ten and I was surprised how many teams had similar amounts returning. Looking at say an Illinois who loses their 4 year starter at QB and their top WR I thought boy those 2 losses of returning starters sure hurt more than us losing G. Matthews and D. Moosman.
On the flip side saying Michigan returns 8 starters on defense sounds good until you mention the 3 we lose. So I tried to quantify the losses in my chart below. Obviously this has a lot of subjective analysis to it, but I think it helps quantify where a team is potentially headed.
I think it would be interesting to try and chart the other Big Ten teams in this way, but I don't think I have an intimate enough knowledge of their 2 deeps to make a thoughtful analysis, if anybody does I'd love to see you take a shot at it. Well here's my chart. Let me know what you think
- 10=Brandon Graham
- 8= All Big Ten
- 6=Pretty solid starter, helped more than hurt
- 4=Ok, but message boards are pretty fed up
- 2= Can someone plant dope in his room so we can go Saban?
- 0= Why are we playing walk ons??
Offense | |||
---|---|---|---|
Position | 2009 | 2010 | Remarks |
QB | 5 | 7.5 | Tate and Denard showed flashes last year, Frosh to Soph is biggest jump |
RB | 5 | 6 | Hard to vote here, we should have been a 8 last year, but injuries killed us |
WR | 5 | 5 | Replacing Stonum with Matthews seems like a push |
WR | 5 | 7 | Time for Hemingway to shine |
Slot | 5 | 7 | Depth, experience and some potential Odoms, Roundtree, Gallon, Trob should be good |
TE | 5 | 6 | Koger was an 8 to start year and a 2 to end it. Between the 3 they'll find someone to step up if Koger falters |
LT | 6 | 5 | Ortmann was solid..now who knows but talent is there. |
LG | 6 | 7 | Last year for Schilling, usually you get real focused |
C | 5 | 7 | Molk was hurt and Moosman was ok, it'd be an 8 for Molk but I'm not sure he'll be a 100% |
RG | 4 | 5 | Moosman was ok but he was moved for most of the year |
RT | 3 | 5 | A problem area all year, we have talent we just don't know how ready it is |
TOTAL | 54 | 67.5 | I really like where this offense is going, RB's are a question mark and the OL hasn't quite matured, but I think the fact all these guys were able to grow in this system over the last couple years will help them be better than their individual talent. |
Defense | |||
Position | 2009 | 2010 | Remarks |
LE | 10 | 6 | You can't replace a Gary Bartere….RVB will try hard we know that |
NT | 6.5 | 6 | Martin was solid, but I think he was dinged up much of the year, I was hoping for more. Renaldo and Will should be ok. |
DT | 5 | 7.5 | I think Martin for last years RVB will be a Big Step up |
DEATH | 4 | 7 | Playing as a true Frosh at that spot is ridiculous, I expect him to explode this year |
LB | 3 | 5 | Horrid has to be better, just because of continuity in system and competition |
LB | 3 | 5 | Horrid has to be better, just because of continuity in system and competition |
QUICK | 6 | 4 | Stevie was good for us last year, this year is unknown though I'm more hopeful than 4 (love Hawthorne) I'm trying to be realistic |
CB | 7.5 | 5 | Warren was good, hopefully Turner lives up to the hype |
CB | 3 | 4 | Boo Boo, Floyd, me, you, Troy whoever it was it didn't help us. I'll bump it to 3 since Troy held it for half the year, but it could have been a 1 |
BOX | 2 | 4 | Williams and Kovacks struggled it can't get worse they are back and have another year, if they get beat out even better |
DEEP | 4 | 6.5 | Woolfolk should solidify this spot this year |
TOTAL | 54 | 60 | I'm a big believer in actually knowing what you are supposed to be doing helping out, so I'm thankful we have Greg back. |
Team Totals | |||
TOTAL | 108 | 127.5 | (See Below) |
I'm a little surprised I had the offense and defense tied last year and figured I must have made a mistake, but Graham and Warren skew things a bit so I think it holds up as useful analysis. If anyone is intimately familiar with another Big Ten team, I'd be curious how it would shake out. I did this exercise to go inside the numbers of just returning starters to see if there was something more meaningful because Tate and Roh returning as starters is more important than Mike Williams and Perry Dorrenstein.
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I miss my old job, hanging out with Blue Durham, drinking wine and surfing the internet... sigh.Work?
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