OT: Lions Draft Summary
The NFL Draft is just one week away. Being a Lions fan, this is often the most exciting time of the year. I'm curious to see what other people think about the Lions (or their team's) draft--whom they like and whom they don't want to see on their squad.
Here's my pick-by-pick hope for the Lions:
Round One, Pick Two:
- Aidan Hutchinson. I believe he's a future hall-of-famer. Would not trade down unless the offer is tremendous if AH is on the board.
- Trade down. If Aidan is gone, the Lions should look to move back. This draft is deep where the Lions have needs, so I'd be open to trade back quite a ways if some value is there, particularly if it helps build draft capital for next year when we might be trying to draft our franchise QB. There are a ton of great edge rushers, so I'd even give value based on the trade chart to add picks this year and next.
- Kayvon Thibodeaux. I've gone back-and-forth on this, but I believe he's the second most valuable player in this draft. The Lions don't need an OT and while I like Kyle Hamilton, I don't like taking a safety with the #2 pick.
Don't want: Travon Walker. A workout warrior with below average production in college, Walker seems destined to be a good-but-not-great player. His pass rush win rate is pretty low. It should go without saying that I HATE picking any QB here.
Round One, Pick 32:
- Daxton Hill. This is pretty unlikely. Dax is not just a great player, he's versatile. The Lions like to be multiple on D and he's a near-perfect fit.
- Nakobe Dean. Once thought to be a fantasy, it seems more and more likely he's available here.
- Lewis Cine. I don't think Cine is much of a step down from Dax, if at all. He's not as versatile (true safety) but I'd love for him to be the pick here.
Other options: If these three are all gone, the Lions may have a trade partner who like a QB and want the 5th-year option (more on this below). Other players I like: Treylon Burks, Jaquan Brisker, Jalen Pitre, Jahan Dotson, Skyy Moore. If we traded out of the early pick and haven't gotten an edge guy yet, I like Ebiketie, Ojabo, Mafe, and Karlaftis if he's still on the board (unthinkable a few weeks ago and now plausible).
Don't want: Any QB. This obsession with the 5th-year option only makes sense if you really believe in the guy you're drafting. If the Lions took Corral here and Cine or Dean went at pick 33, I'd be furious. Also don't like: CB, OL, any other LB (assuming Lloyd is long gone).
Round Two, Pick 34:
- Assuming we got an edge and Dean, Cine or Brisker would be my picks here. I really like Skyy Moore and like Dotson only a little less, but we really need help at safety. Pitre is another pick that would work. Obviously Dean is the pick if he's here.
- If we got an edge, safety, and Dean is gone, I'm looking at WR. Moore, Dotson, Watson--in that order--are my preference here.
Other options: IFF the Lions love Corral and he's still on the board, I could probably cope with that pick here if we've already gotten an edge and safety. If we took Dean at 32, this should be a safety, IMO. The drop-off at safety looks pretty steep after Hamilton, Hill, Cine, Brisker, and Pitre.
If we've gathered extra picks in round two, I'd prefer to wait on a QB. I'm fine with a 2nd-round pick after this one being spent on Ridder or Howell if we've already addressed defense. If the trade-down means we're still after an EDGE: Ebiketie, Ojabo, Mafe. I LOVE Nik Bonnito, but would prefer to get him a bit lower as he's really only a pass-rusher.
Don't want: Leo Chenal, or really any other LB at 34. A popular pick to the Lions in some mocks and a PFF fave, I don't like Chenal's three-down potential in the pros. He tested well but watching tape he looks stiff and late in coverage. I like Walker, Muma, and Andersen, but later in round two or early in round three. Also don't want DL, unless Wyatt has fallen this far, and even then I'd rather address other needs, but the value would be insane. Don't want Travis Jones at any point.
Round Three, Pick 66: LIKE: WR--Pierce, Metchie, Tolbert (in that order) LB--Walker (doubt he's there), Muma, Andersen, Asamoah (in that order) S--Only the guys above EDGE: Bonnito, Josh Paschal is underrated and would be a steal here, Enagbare. QB: Strong would be fine here, I guess.
Don't like: S, TE (unless McBride falls this far), DL
Round Three, Pick 97: LIKE: TE--Jeremy Ruckert would be a great pick here, IMO. LB--Asamoah, Tindall, Smith WR--Austin, Romeo Doubs is a guy I think is undervalued but maybe not as safe as Austin, Shakir. S--Joseph, Cross (a bit early, but we've got a long wait before we pick again) if we haven't already addressed safety. Also okay with any extreme value pick here if someone unexpectedly falls at ANY position.
Here are other guys I like for the rest of the draft:
WR (hope we draft at least two total): Wan'Dale Robinson, Danny Gray, Bo Melton, Tyquan Thornton
TE: Duclich and Woods are likely gone, but I don't want them before round four. Otton, Bellinger, Kolar, Okonkwo, Ferguson, Likely, Wydermyer, and Turner are all fine with me later in the draft, and one of them is almost certain to be there, so I'd prefer to wait on (but still get) a TE.
S: Woods, Weatherford, and Markquese Bell (who I really like as a later pick) are my later guys, with Monday and Bolden as solid back-up plans.
QB: Zappe, Purdy, Coan, and Eleby seem worth a late flier if they're there. Don't know why, but I think Jack Coan will pan out into a serviceable NFL QB.
CB: We've spent too much capital here already, but later-round guys I like include Jones, Woolen, Mathis, Flott, McCollum, Taylor, Barnes, Jobe, Evans, Kendrick.
OG: If one of the top guys fall, I'm okay taking an OG as early as pick 66, since Vatai is probably on his way out. After that, Strange, Poe, Shaffer, and Ezeudu could all be decent later values.
OT: Only want one that could also play guard, like Goedeke. Kinnard, Rhyan, Bruss, Paul, Volson are other options.
RB: Only interested in extreme value here. Pierce, Cook, Zamir White, Strong, Allgeier, Robinson, Zaquandre White, Chandler, and Ealy are all guys I'd look at if they fall.
EDGE: This NEEDS to get addressed early, but later gems might be Malone, Barno, Thomas.
DL: Really like Eyioma Uwazurikie if he's available at 177 or later. Mathis, Butler, Eric Johnson, Noah Ellis are other potential late-draft options.
Please don't draft: FB, Center (unless extreme value), kicker, punter.
Hutch would be a home run. So pissed we dropped out of #1.
Walker > Thibideaux. I will take the workout warrior well before the guy who underperforms and has a questionable work ethic. Especially this high.
Dean would be huge at a position of need as would Dax.
Imagine the D next year if we could go Hutch, Dean, Dax 2,32,34.
WR is loaded and a game changer should be available at 34. Wilson, Olave, London, Pickens, Dotson,Williams, somebody is going to be there. Although drafting an OSU WR this high seems wrong when neither was the best WR on their team. David Bell could be a steal with one of two picks in round three.
Please don’t reach on a weak QB class.
April 22nd, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
When has a workout warrior with below-average college production ever worked out at DE?
April 22nd, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
Walker is more than that. He was fundamentally sound in a Defense where stats were shared.
Ezekiel Ansah comes to mind as a guy that was more measurables than stats coming out of college.
I am a believer in team locker room culture. Leaders, winners, workers. There are so many talented athletes to choose from why settle for less?
I feel like Thibodeaux is getting the Laremy Tunsil treatment in some ways and is getting a lot of negative publicity for somewhat undeserving reasons. I would take him over Walker 10 times out of 10. Most all of Walkers splash plays are running players down and making things happen in the open field when he is unblocked. For all of the underperforming talk revolving around Thib's his win rate on pure pass rushes in 2nd to only Hutch. Where as Walker's numbers there aren't at all impressive. Walker both lacks pass rush moves and bend. He looks like a 3-4 DE to me more than someone you line up on the edge to put pressure on the QB; that isnt his game. Walker was a late 1st early 2nd round graded player until he ran in a straight line really fast.
I see the OP likes a lot of slot WR, which I dont disagree that Dotson/Clark are plus players. But if the Lions are drafting a WR in the first 3 rounds he needs to be an outside guy who can make plays downfield. St-Brown is a solid slot player and you can find electric speedsters later in the draft.
April 23rd, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
Thibodeaux might be getting unfair publicity and his athleticism is awesome. Where there is smoke there is often fire.
I would be interviewing everyone including 2nd grade teachers to get it right if that’s the route you are going.
I am in agreement with most of your analysis. I agree a 2nd round QB is preferable to a first round QB in this draft IF they decide to draft a QB at all. The fifth year option is not a big deal since you're likely to be giving your QB a big extension before that final year anyway. If you're on the fence about it after year 3 or 4 then your QB probably isn't worth it.
I am having a difficult time understanding people's fascination with Ridder. He has HORRIBLE accuracy issues. Whenever he drops back to throw there is a good chance he skies the ball 10 feet over his receiver's head. Saw it happen multiple times in the Alabama game. What QB has ever panned out with accuracy issues? I can't think of a single one. Baker Mayfield is on his way out of Cleveland for this exact reason.
From what little studying I've done I'd prefer Sam Howell above anyone else in the 2nd round if they take a QB. Carson Strong would be an interesting choice in the 3rd, like you mentioned. I hope his knee holds up in the pros because if not for that he'd be getting talked about like an early 2nd/late 1st just like the other QBs.
Edge edge edge! Early and often! Getting 2 guys in this draft would be ideal! Getting 2 edges while also finding a good safety (preferably Hill/Cine, like you said) in the first 3 rounds would put me on the Brad Holmes bandwagon for life!
April 24th, 2022 at 11:41 PM ^
Seems like Josh Allen has panned out. He had accuracy issues at Wyoming.
Walker, Brisker, Dotson, Chenal.
Chenal is going to play solid football for a long time.
Great write up. The only thing I would disagree with is I think if any of the big DTs were to fall (Perrion Winfrey, Logan Hall, DeMarvin Leal) we may consider them at 66 and would definitely take one at 97.
Appreciate you're not one of the QB blind fools out there. I cringe at the idea that the Lions would spend one of their first 3 picks on a QB especially in this draft with seemingly no elite QBs to be had. Much better to build a team then add a QB than to do what the Jets have done with Sam Darnold and now Zac Wilson. Throwing a Rookie QB on a bad team seldom works out.
The one quibble I have with your board is the lack of secondary players. It's a passing league and getting sacks and QB pressure is one way to address that issue but as we saw in the CFP, pass rush can be neutralized. Our defense is bad everywhere and while we have spent a lot of capital on the secondary, it is still a major issue (last season we gave up 65% completions for 4k+ yards and 31 TDs). With Justin Fields (I expect he'll improve) and Aaron Rodgers in the Division for the foreseeable future, the path to wins and playoff berths (LOL I know, right) will require better CBs and Safeties. For that reason, I think Dax who can play deep or at the line would be a huge asset for this team at 32 if he's still there (unlikely, I think the Steelers will take him at 20) and might be worth trading up for or trading back for (my ideal scenario since AH won't be there at 2).
Final thought, Thibs ain't worth it at #2. Dude disappeared in the big games against OSU (injured), and both Utah games (For 2 games: 8 Tackles, 1 sack). Not a good run defender IMO, so all you're getting there is a guy who gets after the QB, and I don't think he will mesh with Dan Campbell's "win or die trying" approach to football. I don't think he's as big of a "doesn't want to work hard" guy as a lot of folks but I also don't think he would play football for free. Campbell wants the guys who would pay for free.
April 22nd, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
Oh, I still want at least 2 picks in the secondary. An early safety, and either another safety/nickel or a CB. I just don't want to pick a CB early. And I believe the Lions are much stronger in the secondary than many people do.
I get the Thibs hate. I don't love the pick. But workout warriors with limited college production almost never work out (pun intended). I don't see a better option at #2. I prefer Johnson to Walker, and wouldn't want Walker in the top 10.
The Lions were 30th in the league in sacks last year. They need DL help first and foremost. No question.
It is also extremely unfair to criticize a player for being injured. Especially when it was one game early in the season. He had 3 sacks against Utah in the 2019 Pac12 championship game so the narrative around him not showing up in big games is fabricated.
Also the guy seems like he's just being financially smart using football as part of a "30 year plan" to grow himself financially. He's from a really rough background and likely wants to ensure that he and his family never have to experience that life again. He's gotta know that in order to be able to execute his plan, it all starts with football and being good at it. He's also a physical freak and has good production to pair with it unlike Walker. Would I take him over Aidan? No. Is he the next best option at edge? Absolutely.
Yeah, in short, the Defense is bad everywhere. Easy to find a good numbers argument for addressing just about any spot on the defense. I would say that getting to the QB can be better if the coverage gives your DL guys time to get to the QB too. This is the thing about DL guys though, (as we saw with AH against Iowa and Georgia) other teams can scheme around a good pass rusher. In a Division where for at least the next 3-4 years where getting to the top means beating Aaron Rodgers, I'd address the secondary with more picks than the DL (go DL at 2 if AH is there and secondary with 32 and 34).
As for Thibs being better than I think, I am sure he is quite good. I think he is probably top 10 talent, but I'm not sold on him being top 3 talent. That he had 3 sacks in the championship game against Utah 3 years ago is impressive but also not something I'm hanging my hat on when the more recent 2 meetings we're pretty meh. At the same time, to judge his ability off 2 games is probably unfair, but I'd be more inclined to go for Sauce Gardner or a Safety at 2 than Thibs.
While a trade down from 2 would be nice, I think it's going to be too hard to pull off unless the Lions can convince a QB-desperate team that they're taking Willis. With that said, a trade down from our position is tough too, because you probably want to guarantee you still get one of Thibodeaux, Walker (I see him in a better light than you do), Kyle Hamilton, or one of the top CBs (Gardner/Stingley) which means you probably can't go out of the top 10.
I like your assessment of many of the position groups though. Agree that this LB class is deep and we should look for starters in day 2 unless Dean or (somehow) Lloyd is available at 32.
No QB necessary unless someone like Zappe or Eleby is available in the 4th/5th and you've traded down for extra picks.
Need to come down with one of Hamilton, Dax, Cine, or Brisker in my opinion. I'm really worried there will be a 1st round run on safeties and none of them are there at 32.
CB might require a reach for Coby Bryant (3rd/4th round), otherwise it doesn't seem to be a great class for that position which is unfortunate given Detroit's needs.
WR is deep and I don't mind if they do what they did last year (wait until day 2/3 to address it) because I think they're in better position there than what many people believe.
I agree about trading down, the Lions have been in this situation before where trading down make sense but you actually have to find someone to trade with. I don't see it happening this year, especially if they believe there is a realistic chance Hutchinson could drop to #2.
April 22nd, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
Agree with you on the WR position. I think the NFL is actually overrun with very good WRs and there are more and more coming with every draft (look at UM's WR room the last few years and going forward and multiply that out by all of College Football). No need to spend first 3 rounds draft capital on that position. This draft should be all about the defense.
April 22nd, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
Forgot to add later round LBs (there aren't many I like): Micah McFadden; Terrel Bernard; JoJo Domann; Jack Sanborn; Aaron Hansford
April 22nd, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
I like where you're going with this. I think the Jags are bluffing and Hutch is already going #1.
I would be ecstatic over Thibodeaux, Hill/Cine, Dean and Ojabo @ 2, 32, 32, 66.
Unlikely they don't grab a QB or WR, but for what's available I'd pass on offense here because that defense sucks so bad and no playmakers.
April 25th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
What purpose is bluffing when you have the first pick? If they were dead certain on who they were taking, they could already have worked out a contract. Can't sign it, but the details could be largely sorted out. I mean, with the standardization of contract slotting over the last few years, those details are already mostly worked out. Nonetheless, why bluff about it?
You bluff in order to maybe coax another team into offering you an advantageous trade. This is especially the play when there's no surefire No. 1 pick.
April 22nd, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
Wow! You put a lot of time into this, nice job.
I do not think the Lions are going to be able to trade out of any of their picks.
With the top four picks I want a pick for each level of the D. D-line, LB & a DB. Mix a WR in the top 4 and I'm good. Brad Holmes did a good job last year. I trust him to pick us up and good haul. We we have to pay dearly, but will get our QB of the future next year.
I get that a lot of M fans are Lions fans, but I wouldn't wish anyone I like to go to the Lions. That franchise is a cluster fuck.
Hutch is a generational talent that would simply be wasted in Detroit - just ask Calvin Johnson.
If Hutchinson is drafted by the Lions I will watch the NFL again BUT I don't know if we can call Hutch generational when Young, Bosa, and Bosa exist.
People who say this really don't follow the NFL much at all. New GM, coach, basically entire front-office, and "new" owner (Sheila Hamp took over from her mother before the 2020 season). The only hold-over is Rod Wood from the end of the Caldwell years. If you actually follow the team, they seem to be actually functional in not downright good (maybe a touch early to say they're good), which is a massive change from the Quinntricia years
All of that could also be written about the Jacksonville Jaguars.
All fair points.
April 22nd, 2022 at 10:48 PM ^
Actually saw a mock today with KENNY PICKETT AT 2. Lions have been epically poor drafting but that one would have to take the cake.
April 25th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
No. Just, no.
That would be on par with taking a TE (any TE) in the Top 10. It would be on par with taking a WR Top 10 so many years in a row. It would be on par with considering taking a safety at #2.
Sadly, all of these scenarios have one thing in common...
April 25th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
Good diary entry. Full of useful info.
I could hardly be in more agreement about everything written. The lone exception I have is that I'm not sure AH will be a HOF player. I think he'll be a very good player with a high floor. At the very least you are getting a true leader and a guy that will give you everything he has. I'm not quite sure that'll be game changing stuff at The NFL level. It can be! I'm just not that sure.
Literally everything else is spot on. If asked to give my assessment on this draft it would look eerily similar to yours here.
No QB is worth taking in the 1st. Not one. This isn't a draft for that and the difference between a top-5 pick and a top-25 pick isn't as big as most years. If AH isn't there at 2 you trade back for almost literally any value you can get. The problem being that I doubt anyone wants to be 2 in this draft, lmao. I don't buy that anyone wants one of these QBs enough to take them at 2 and if Detroit did I'd be pissed. Then people talk of taking a QB late 1st and that's even crazier as the only QBs worth half a shit will be gone by then. Ridder? MC? No. Not NFL QBs. Flat-out.
Also, the thought of taking a Safety at 2 that isn't the clone of Ed Reed is lunacy. You go QB, OL or Rush at 2 and if there is no value at those positions or you don't need them you take anything to move back in a draft like this. That said, I have also slowly become ok with taking KT at 2 if AH goes 1. I do not want Walker for the reasons listed. If he turns into an absolute league wrecker, I'd accept that miss. I won't take a workout warrior with limited production in college at 2. Every year we see it happen and teams still do it. It's like the QB that can throw the ball a mile but is pure garbage that becomes a top-10 pick every year when everyone knows he shouldn't be.
Totally agree with this write up.
You won’t be able to trade down. There is no “must get” player in this draft that teams will trade draft capital to move up to #2. There’s multiple high level EDGE guys who are relative substitutes in Hutch (he’s the best of the 3 but take the maize goggles off: he’s not the generational prospect Young or the Bosas were and I definitely wouldn’t project he’s a HOFer as you have), Thibbodeaux, and Walker in the top 10. At OT you can take one of Neal, Ekwonu, and Cross in the top 10. No one’s gonna trade up to #2 to take a safety or CB. No one’s trading up to #2 to take Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett. So the Lions kinda just have to take the best available at #2.
Defense weak, pick the best defensive players available through round 6. I just have a sinking feeling the Lions will pick a QB in the 2nd round. LOL, I could see these Lions taking Zappe in the 2nd round. I hope not.
The Lions aren't going to get any good offers to trade down, but unless the Jags pass on Hutch, they ought to accept a bad one if they get it. Say, a third round pick to move down four or five spots. Nobody else is worth a top-five pick.
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