OK, this isn't a hard-core statistical analysis like the Mathlete would do, just some fun with numbers.  We have a rather bipolar team this year (Offense #5 in TO, Defense #105 in TD), and I thought it would be interesting to look at what our opponents' Total Offense and Total Defense stats would look like if they hadn't played us - and what kind of a difference it would make in their overall ranking of NCAA stats. 

The NCAA stats are not linear, of course, and a difference of 1 yd/gm can be a large or small difference in rankings depending on how closly spaced everyone is.  So as I cautioned, this isn't a hard-core statistical exercise.  It is interesting to look back at the early games and see how well we did in comparison to what other teams ended up doing against them - what seemed like a good or bad performance at the time may look different in retrospect.

 

Part the First: Offense

We know our offense is great, but what kind of damage has it done to the Total Defense (TD) ratings of our opponents?  Here they are thus far:

Opponents' Total Defense, Season

Opponent	Games	Yards Yielded	Yds/gm	NCAA Rank
Connecticut	9	3277	364.11	56
Notre Dame	10	3803	380.30	66
Bowling Green	10	4205	420.50	94
Indiana	10	4116	411.16	89
Michigan State	10	3279	327.90	28
Iowa	10	3070	307.00	16
Penn State	10	3567	356.70	52
Illinois	10	3448	344.80	38
Purdue	10	3644	364.40	57

 

What would these guys' defensive stats look like if they hadn't played Michigan?

Michigan Offensive Performances

Opponent	Total Offense, M	Opp. Avg - M, Yds/gm*	M Total Offense, % of Opp Avg - M**	NCAA Rank Without M
Connecticut	473	350.50	135%	46
Notre Dame	532	363.44	146%	56
Bowling Green	721	387.11	186%	77
Indiana	574	393.56	146%	78
Michigan State	377	322.44	117%	27
Iowa	522	283.11	184%	6
Penn State	423	349.33	121%	44
Illinois	676	308.00	219%	18
Purdue	395	361.00	109%	53

*Opponents' average Total Defense yards per game, minus the Michigan game

**Michigan's Total Offense in game as a % of the opponent's average TD minus the Michigan game

So Michigan has gained above our opponents' average yardage yielded in every game thus far, and their TD ranking has suffered as a result.  What's the damage?

The Michigan Difference, Offense

Opponent	TD Rank With M	TD Rank Without M	Difference
Connecticut	56	46	-10
Notre Dame	66	56	-10
Bowling Green	94	77	-17
Indiana	89	78	-11
Michigan State	28	27	-1
Iowa	16	6	-10
Penn State	52	44	-8
Illinois	38	18	-20
Purdue	57	53	-4

Average change in Total Defense ranking for all opponents:  -10.1 places.

 

Part the Second, Defense

So the flipside of this, then, is how much has our defensive suckitude helped out our opponents stat sheet?  Where would they rank in TO without having played us?  We'll run the same tables again, but from the opposite tack:

Michigan Opponents' Offensive Performances, Season

Opponent	Games	Yards Gained	Yds/gm	NCAA Rank
Connecticut	9	3057	339.67	87
Notre Dame	10	3874	387.40	49
Bowling Green	10	2883	288.30	114
Indiana	10	3915	391.50	53
Michigan State	10	4168	416.80	34
Iowa	10	4049	404.90	46
Penn State	10	3597	359.70	74
Illinois	10	3671	367.10	71
Purdue	10	3051	305.10	107

First thing that jumps out at me is that none of these are world-beater offenses thus far.  They're functional and solid for the most part, but even the best is merely above average.  We can't really blame our bad defensive performances on having come up against a bunch of awesome offenses.  Anyway, how'd they do against us?

                              

Michigan Defensive Performances

Opponent	Total Offense, Opp	Opp. Avg - M, Yds/gm*	Opp Total Offense, % of Opp Avg - M**	NCAA Rank Without M
Connecticut	343	339.25	101%	88
Notre Dame	535	371.00	144%	68
Bowling Green	283	288.89	98%	114
Indiana	568	371.89	153%	67
Michigan State	536	403.56	133%	50
Iowa	383	407.33	94%	44
Penn State	435	351.33	124%	78
Illinois	561	345.56	162%	85
Purdue	256	310.56	82%	105

* Opponents average offensive performance, minus the Michigan game

** Opponents TO as a percentage of their average offensive performance, minus the Michigan game

To summarize:

The Michigan Difference, Defense

Opponent	TO Rank With M	TO Rank Without M	Difference
Connecticut	87	88	+1
Notre Dame	49	68	+19
Bowling Green	114	114	0
Indiana	53	67	+14
Michigan State	34	50	+16
Iowa	46	44	-2
Penn State	74	78	+4
Illinois	71	85	+14
Purdue	107	105	-2

Average boost to opponents' Total Offense NCAA ranking: +7.1 places

So we've had four really bad defensive outings (ND, Ind., MSU, Ill.) and a four decent ones (UConn, Iowa, PU, BG).  The PSU game doesn't look so bad from this perspective - still not good, but far from our worst outing when compared to others.

Part the Third:  Summary

The Michigan Difference, Overall

Opponent	Michigan's O Difference on Opp TD Ranking	Michigan's D Difference on Opp TO Ranking
Connecticut	-10	+1	W, Good O, OK D
Notre Dame	-10	+19	W, Good O, Terrible D
Bowling Green	-17	0	W, Awesome O, OK D
Indiana	-11	+14	W, Good O, Terrible D
Michigan State	-1	+16	L, OK O, Terrible D
Iowa	-10	-2	L, Good O, OK D
Penn State	-8	+4	L, Good O, Bad D
Illinois	-20	+14	W, Awesome O, Terrible D
Purdue	-4	-2	W, OK O, OK D

Takeaways from these numbers (as opposed to other numbers or observations):

• We played well at Iowa and were beaten by a better team.
• We played badly against MSU on both sides of the ball; they might have beaten us anyway with good performances, but not likely.
• The loss to PSU doesn't look like such a bad outing from this angle.  Maybe PSU is better than we gave them credit for.
• Awesome offense wins, terrible defense doesn't necessarily lose.
• Our offense is better at offending than our defense is bad at defending.
• Winning is more fun than losing.