Don't bother indulging the trolls and giving their nonsense credibility. Most of us know RR's not going anywhere.
maybe i should have had greg howard write the brandon obit.
With the transfer of Threet and the potential for another mediocre season next year, it's become a bit of a common theme to say "OMG, if we go 4-8 next year RR won't be the coach in 2010".
Come on guys. Seriously? Do you really think Bill Martin wants to go through another coaching search? Do you think he would only give RR 2 years with a roster that is ill-equipped for his scheme? Only 1 year with recruits that he signed? Given the attrition and injuries that have occurred over that period?
Look at the history of this administration and athletic department as far as patience with coaches. Carr was clearly winding down for at least 3 years without ever receiving so much as a single criticism from the AD. When Lloyd left (after a couple of medicore seasons and constant losses to our bitter rivals) BM said he would hire a clone of LC if he could. Tommy Amaker was given SEVEN years to try to bring the Bball program back to glory. SEVEN! And that is in a sport where it's much easier to acquire a few players that can turn your program around. Do you really think that RR, the most proven winner of any of these coaches, is only going to get 2-3 years? Though people say that M is a cut throat place to coach, I think we have one of the most forgiving and patient athletic departments of any big time program.
To those of you thinking that RR might be canned in the next year or two if we don’t show immediate improvement: Do you actually believe that he SHOULD be fired, or just that he will because of today’s “what have you done for me lately” standards? And if you are in the latter camp, do you really think that BM is so ignorant as to throw away one of the highest regarded coaches in the game before he really gets a chance to make his mark on the program? Trust me, Bill Martin knows as much about RR and his potential for huge success as we do.
Personally, I think we could go 4-8 next year and 6-6 in 2010 and RR would still be the coach is 2011, though the leash would be short at that point. Of course, I don’t think any off this will matter, because I think we’ll be challenging for the Big 10 title in 2010.
That is, if RR isn’t fired first.
Don't bother indulging the trolls and giving their nonsense credibility. Most of us know RR's not going anywhere.
Why do you hate him so much? He took WVU to the sugar bowl to beat Goergia and was on game away from the NC game. He made WVU great and now that program is going downhill. He's a good coach and what the hell is up with coal minor's child? who cares that he was.
"Carr was clearly winding down for at least 3 years without ever receiving so much as a single criticism from the AD. When Lloyd left (after a couple of medicore seasons and constant losses to our bitter rivals)"
Yeah, that 2006 season (11-2) was mediocre?
I was glad to see LC go but making shit up is not right!
I was mostly referring to the 2005 and 2007 seasons, which were indisputably disappointing. We were solid in '06, but I think that team was overrated due to a weak schedule. The ND win made everyone think we were amazing, but it turned out that ND was way overrated themselves. I think we were exposed in the OSU game (in which I think we were clearly outplayed, but came up with turnovers to keep us in it) and the USC game. I don't think that team was on the same level as other Carr greats, like the '03 team.
Plus, the 4 consecutive losses to OSU would put most coaches of major programs on a hot seat, but LC never seemed to have any pressure from the AD at all.
No. We were widely regarded as a top team in '06, and rightly so. Our defense was vicious.
Don't give those 11 wins too much credit, though. The only really great wins that came out of that season were against a severely overrated Notre Dame, and Wisconsin (maybe count PSU there but I'd say that's a "good" win). The two really BIG games we played against USC and OSU we were clearly out-coached, and the reason OSU was so close is because of our D's outstanding ability. That team was stacked and probably should have won an MNC with so many great athletes, but LC's abilities to coach against the new elite (Tressel and Carroll) were deteriorating.
Maybe I'm being overly demanding, but with the strength of that defense, and the number of weapons we had on offense, the only reason that's not 13-0 is because of coaching, plain and simple.
What? That OSU game from 2006 was 39-42. That was not a defensive struggle. That game was two true heavyweights slugging it out, and the offenses took control that game. Had we played at home that year wee would have won. But don't blame that on the coaching, because that was just how the cards played out in that game. I can't think of any moment during it where I thought that a different call would have changed things considerably. If anything, Crable's hit on Troy Smith hurt us the most, as it kept their scoring drive alive.
I never said it was a defensive struggle, I said our D was able to keep us in it. Remember we were down 14 at half, and at one point the game looked hopeless. We were fortunate to be able to stop their production in the second half, but, once again, we had our backs to the walls.
The point is we were out-coached.
I think Bill Martin realizes that RichRod deserves no less than three years to get his system in place. But if Michigan Goes 6-6 in 2010, I think RichRod deserves to be on a short leash (barring crazy injuries or the unforseeable) from there on out. I think most of us hope to see improvement this year, but we're expecting another rough season if for no other reason that we're almost certainly starting a true freshman at QB. But by 2010, he will have many of his own recruits in, most of the players will be comfortable with his system, and Barwis Barwis Barwis. 6-6 in RichRod's third year would be a disappointment of arguably Weis-ian proportions.
That being said, I agree with you, and I don't expect 6-6 in 2010 (I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll reach that mark this year). I steadfastly believe that RichRod is a great coach, and will right the ship sooner than we think. But am I way off? Wouldn't 6-6 in year three be a pretty huge disappointment?
If we are 6-6 in 2010, that's when I start to get concerned. The circumstances of how we get to that point make a huge difference--were there injury problems? Or did we get to 6-6 starting the same QB the entire season?
But I'm with you--if we're not back near the top of the Big 10 in 2010, then I think you can start saying that RR needs to perform. Before that is out of bounds, in my opinion.
If RR leaves any time soon, it will be his own decision. We do have a cut throat fan base, but you're right that our Athletic Department is patient, which I think is a plus. Tommy Amaker may be a counter-example to that, but he was a class act to represent our school. We gave him more than enough time to build a program, but once he proved he was ineffective in winning any important games, we showed him the door. Some would argue we gave him way too much time, but I like the patience our AD shows in that type of situation. It shows that, despite the fan bases wishes, the athletic department doesn't jump on any band wagons and have a crowd-like mentality in those types of decisions (I think of the quote from Men In Black where Tommy Lee Jones says something to the tune of "the person is an intelligent and resourceful being, but people are stupid").
So yeah, my point is basically that as long as it's up to the athletic department, RR is here to stay.
In my opinion, we've landed a couple of top notch coached for football and hoops, and the only we won't be near the top of the conference in both sports is if screw it up by not giving them enough time.
I found the MIB quote: "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."
That's always stuck with me for some reason
I would NOT describe our fanbase as "cutthroat." In fact, I'd say we have about the most patient fans of any historical power, seriously. It's much uglier elsewhere.
Well the writers who cover our team are pretty cut-throat, and there seem to be a lot of fans who agree with whatever they say. The vibe in ann arbor feels pretty cut throat, at least with the fans I talk to
The AD will be patient as long as the stadium is full. If not, change will come quickly.
BTW, if we are 6-6 this year (under any/all circumstances) it is simply not acceptable. A record of 7-5 is the bare minimum.
(Not saying RR will be fired with 6-6, but the horde [myself included] will not be pleased.)
you may not be pleased with 6-6, but your expectations need to be lower than that.
TRUE FRESHMAN QUARTERBACK == lots of pain and suffering
"Don't worry don't do it, be happy
Put a smile on your face
Don't bring everybody down like this
Don't worry, it will soon past
Whatever it is
Don't worry, be happy"
TRUE FRESHMAN QUARTERBACK = NO PAIN, NO SUFFERING, ONLY JOY!!
"BTW, if we are 6-6 this year (under any/all circumstances) it is simply not acceptable"
Yes, actually, it is.
Anyone who sincerely believes that "a record of 7-5 is the bare minimum" is either (1) delusional, (2) completely in denial about the talent--or lack thereof--of the upperclassmen, (3) way too unrealistic in his expectations.
Personally, I would be thrilled with 7-5. A true freshman QB. A (still) young offensive line. Still only one receiver with good experience. A questionable (at best) set of safeties. Young linebackers. Likely a true sophomore and a true freshman starting at DT. In fact, the only undeniable positives are Brandom Graham, Zoltan, and the running backs. Every other position is rife with inexperience and/or question marks.
And you honestly expect AT A MINIMUM 7-5? I hope not too many people share your sentiment. Patience, young grasshopper.
So, then you're predicting a losing record in the Big10?
And, that is acceptable?
Not for me, this is Meeeechigan.
Is it acceptable to your family that your are a delusional fool? Probably not, but they will have to accept it. Likewise, when we probably go 5-7 you will need to accept it.
We will be EXTREMELY fortunate to have a winning record this year. Again, its not desirable, but those are the cards in RR's hand right now. And if anyone thinks that there is a better coach waiting to be hired, they are even more delusional than you are.
I love the WLA! You guys seldom actually read the post or respond to what was posted.
What I posted: "(Not saying RR will be fired with 6-6, but the horde [myself included] will not be pleased.)"
I never said RR should be fired at 6-6 (or even hinted at that). I said I (and IMO many others) will not be "pleased".
BTW, if we go 6-6: That is most likely 3-1 in non-conference and 3-5 IN conference. Not acceptable to me.
We go 3-1 in non-conference and merely 4-4 IN conference = 7-5.
But, please use your infantile name calling to try and convince me otherwise.
Well "Gilry-man football" won the Big Ten this year and OSU has been kicking our asses with it. Oregon almost put 700 yards on us and Appy State beat us during the Carr era. Since you more old-school, you do know that Bo really liked "Coal Miner's Child"
My comment that you took exception to was the following:
"Is it acceptable to your family that your are a delusional fool? Probably not, but they will have to accept it. Likewise, when we probably go 5-7 you will need to accept it.
We will be EXTREMELY fortunate to have a winning record this year. Again, its not desirable, but those are the cards in RR's hand right now. And if anyone thinks that there is a better coach waiting to be hired, they are even more delusional than you are."
While being rude, it is accurate. You are delusional. And in much the same way families must accept other family members for who they are, fans of the football team are going to witness a very challenging season, and whether or not they claim it "unacceptable" it is irrelevant, because it is what we are going to receive.
You can try to claim some form of superiority, that you deserve better, or that this result is unacceptable to you, but your disgust has no means to positively influence the outcome on the field. If you don't believe that watching the current team is worthy of your time, that is entirely your choice. If so, please sell your tickets or read a book instead of turning on the TV on Saturday afternoons.
But your comments here portray you as a spoiled child who fails to understand the facts of the current situation, or a troll who is just trying to rile up the natives.
With regards to your comments:
"BTW, if we are 6-6 this year (under any/all circumstances) it is simply not acceptable. A record of 7-5 is the bare minimum.
(Not saying RR will be fired with 6-6, but the horde [myself included] will not be pleased.)"
"So, then you're predicting a losing record in the Big10?
And, that is acceptable?
Not for me, this is Meeeechigan."
--- Your sense of entitlement is one of the most disgusting traits of the stereotypical Michigan fan. There is no guarantee that Michigan has a winning record. In 2005, Michigan lost three conference games, won one on the last play of regulation on a go ahead TD (PSU), won two games in OT (MSU and Iowa), and the other two wins came against terrible Northwestern an Indiana teams. And this was with a team that had gone to the Rose Bowl the prior year, returned its starting QB and RB and had a much more experienced OL. The season was only rescued by the return of a sophomore tackle, Jake Long.
There is nothing guaranteeing Michigan success other than a roster full of talented players who have been well coached. And right now, the roster has some serious holes that will take the recent recruits years to fill. This was the situation RR inherited. To state that the results generated by one of the most highly regarded coaches in college football with one very flimsy roster are unacceptable is simply myopic and placing blame on the coach when the roster is the issue.
Wow, that was quite the diatribe!
How in the world does saying that a 3-5 record in-conference is unacceptable relate to: "Your sense of entitlement is one of the most disgusting traits of the stereotypical Michigan fan."?
I would hope that any fan of any team in any sport (hyperbole) would not be satisfied with that record.
If I was an Indiana fan I would say a 3-5 in-conference record is unacceptable.
BTW, I have sat through more losing seasons in the Big House than 99% of the folks on this blog. Most of you have no idea of what that is like because you have only experienced one losing season in your lifetime (and that was last year).
How many losing seasons have you sat through?
in a previous thread, I would say 6 ('59, '62, '63, '65, '67, '08). That's 5 more than most of us.
It was a serious question. I didn't see the reference to '59, or I wouldn't have asked.
Ah, the fabled "this is Meeeechigan" comment. Perhaps the rationale is logical; after all, Meeeechigan boasts the most wins of any college football program.
The problem is that historical success does not equate to current prosperity. Yes, Michigan SHOULD win at least seven games every year, at least in theory. But that overlooks the realities on the field.
The facts are that the team finished 3-9 last year, is only in the second season of installing a completely different offensive scheme (with freshmen and sophomores no less), and will be starting a true freshman QB. A four-win swing would be nothing short of impressive. And I did not even mention the defense or that only 13 players are slated to graduate this year. Oops, I guess I just did.
Expectations should be tempered by the personnel on the field, not based on the program's brand name.
The fans can negatively impact the program as well. The ND fanbase was trying for two years to run Willingham out of South Bend and it impacted his last recruiting class and Weis' first class.
The AD has shown patience in the past, but Amaker is a bit of a separate issue given the state of that program prior to his arrival and the sanctions that came down while he was in AA. Also, the football team drives the revenue of the entire department, if that money making machine slows down, he may have his hand forced.
I think that we need to stick with RR for at least 4 years, but the rest of the fanbase needs to understand the damage they can cause.
Realistic plan for the AD:
Scenario 1: RR wins 0-4 games next year with losses to ND, MSU and OSU, RR needs a big year (~8+ wins) in 2010 to keep his job.
Scenario 2: RR wins 5-6 games next year, but misses a bowl game in 2010, he'll be fired. If he makes a bowl in 2010, he'll get a fourth.
Scenario 3: RR wins 7-8 games next year but loses to major rivals, he'll get at least 2 more years.
Scenario 4: RR wins 9+ games with wins over major rivals (or 8 wins with a win over OSU) he's off the hot seat indefinitely.
I think if we were to go 4-8 or 5-7 next year, freshman QB aside, the pressure would be intense, not simply hot, on Martin to fire RR. There is currently no real pressure on Martin right now despite our awful year. But I think an under .500 record next year changes that quite a bit, because many would take that, rightly or wrongly, as a sign of no progress in the program (IMO this won't happen as I think even with a Frosh QB we go at least 7-5). And unlike Amaker, I think the anti-RR faction would have traction this time for two reasons: 1- it's football, and 2- because of the loud minority that look down on RR for the "family values" thing and bigotry (the drawl, etc.). Under .500 changes the game completely.
but RR is not lucky to be at UM. UM is lucky to have him. You trolls that are putting him on a short leash should consider that we all know the talent level (offensive line, receivers, secondary, need I go on) had dropped over the last few years, last year he had no QB and this year he will have true freshman QBs. RR on a short leash is something you might say after too much to drink at a loss to MSU. It is not something that should see the light of day in February after that first season. I think RR made mistakes his first year. But there was never a lot of upside for that team. Let's give this a break and get back to trashing Stevie Brown (just kidding).
Maybe I need to read more closely, but I saw a guy say 6-6 would be "unacceptable", and that was about it. He may be wrong (and I think he is) but I don't really see trolls on this thread. Or is the definition of troll changing to someone who disagrees with us?
Back to the question posed. I read it as a purely speculative one, and most of the responses to it (including my own earlier) answering what would, not what should, happen. I don't think anything should be done if we were under .500 but IMO what would happen, is a tremendous negative pressure on Martin from media and alumni to fire. Sub .500 with a freshman QB and other factors is a possibility, but many would in fact read that as the program not making progress (recall the vitriol when RR said "we're making progress Sunday through Friday e.g.).
"Or is the definition of troll changing to someone who disagrees with us"
Naw, never happen on this site.
Troll: The term is often used to discredit an opposing position, or its proponent, by argument fallacy ad hominem.
Ad hominem: Consists of replying to an argument or factual claim by attacking or appealing to a characteristic or belief of the source making the argument or claim, rather than by addressing the substance of the argument or producing evidence against the claim.
What's this "fallacy" word?
RR will be granted as much time as he needs to put his system in place plus two years(worst case: five years total).
I do not see MI switching coaches even if RR has another horrendous year this upcoming season. Two true freshman QBs and a backup in walk-on Sheridan...who are you kidding? Even the Urban OMG COWBOY Meyer himself couldn't do anything with that offense.
Give RR his time and his due. He made some changes during the offseason now that he knows what he is in store for and he will adapt accordingly.
Patience my little minions...PATIENCE.
I agree, but I'm just one voice among many.
RR is going nowhere. If he's fired, we'll all be calling for a return to good ol' smashmouth Bo-style UM football. But, now our roster is stacked with guys who play a wide open spread and a 3-3-5 D. So, we fire RR and hire a Lloyd/Bo-like coach. Back to square one...a coach with no players who fit into the system. What do you think our record would be in those first few seasons? We are heavily invested in RR at this point, and I'm good with that. 6-6 next year will be just fine.
..in which football coaches which cost $4.5 million to obtain should be fired and paid the rest of their contracts while the program tries to find a replacement. For that reason alone, RR will be here until 2012 at least.
Freshman qb aside, I would be stunned if we were worse than 6-6 this year. Easier schedule and at least the entire rest of the offense aren't true freshman too!
To answer the original question I say four years without a Rose Bowl/beating OSU the seat gets pretty hot, 5 or 6 years and he's gone. No less than five years though unless we're under .500 consistently.
I'm not sure what LJ's original intent was, but I DO think that "but I'm from Meeeeechigan"-types will put immense pressure on Martin if things are not picking up next year. A below .500 record would keep Rodriguez on a tight leash in 2010, I think, given how much irrational outrage was shown this year. Also, Lloyd is a special case because because Lloyd a) won a national championship b) had a great 2006 season, and c) was one of Bo's proteges. Not saying RR deserves that, but I think it's going to be a reality.
However, I think RR has been out of the national papers lately because of Lane Kiffin. Calling RR "soulless" and a "contract-breaker" has gotten old when Lane Kiffin is imploding, exploding and unloading all at the same time on the SEC with hilarious escapades of misfired accusations of NCAA violations and potshots at innocent coaches like Mark Richt. The sportswriters smell fresh blood and have moved on.
RR may yet get a more sympathetic ear from the media because he's been replaced as the national sportswriters' whipping boy by Lane Kiffin. Hopefully that will soften the blow of a likely .500 season for Michigan fans.
If you followed the coaching search, then you no doubt are still hearing the echos of West Virginians about what a snake RR was for leaving WVU (no matter the circumstances).
I personally doubt that RR will be fired for the duration of his contract, regardless of the record. The price of that contract is just too great. However, if his lack of success results in significantly reduced revenues and empty seats, I could certainly be wrong.
Perhaps the bigger worry..... RR turns things around fast, puts UM football in a BCS bowl in 2010 or 2011, then some "win-at-all-cost" SEC school comes along and pays big bucks to pry him away. People said the RR hire was the biggest decision of BM's career. Yeah, it was back then.... but I'd say an even bigger one looms if RR brings the program back to national powerhouse status. As supportive as I am of RR and looking forward to what he can really do when he's got what he needs personnel-wise, I am not (YET) convinced that he has aspirations for the long haul at Michigan. We could potentially find out that those WVU trolls were right all along. I sure hope not!
This could be a problem down the road, but we don't know if RR is willing to make a lateral move to another power based solely on a pay raise. We know that moving from WVU to UM allowed him a pay raise as well as the chance to work with better talent--but I think that there are few programs out there that have more intrinsic advantages than Michigan.
If he only cares about the dollars, we may have a tough time keeping him if his is majorly successful. But if primarily cares about winning, I don't see him leaving for an equally prestigious school where he has to do the rebuilding process all over again.
I just don't see him winning a bunch for a few years then leaving a "problem". If he comes in, coaches for 5-7 years, nettings us a winning record against OSU, puts us at least in the national title coversation, and nets a couple BCS bowl wins and decides he wants to leave, so be it. The man would have earned it. That is the one thing I never understood about the WVU crazies: RR did a hell of a job turning your program around then moved on to bigger and better things. If he did that here, then went to coach in the NFL or some other powerhouse, I would say "Hey, thanks for being awesome" and send him on his way.
And I would be entirely thankful to him and not feel any animosity--but obviously I would prefer that he stay in that situation. I wouldn't fault him for leaving at all, especially if it's a job in the NFL, but you're never happy to see a successful coach leave.
But if we're in that boat in 6 years and it's looking like he's leaving, trust me, we'll all see that as a problem. We might not blame RR or feel he's doing anything wrong, but it will be a problem.
UM is too cheap to fire RR as long as the buyout clause is there. So, even if they were stupid enough to think he deserved to be fired if the worst possible scenario happens again this year, they wouldn't do it.
So, I agree with the poster who said he will be here at least through the duration of his contract.
As for those who are branding RR as a carpetbagger(I know nobody actually used the word, but the stereotype is there), RR didn't move to UM just to change jobs or climb the ladder. He quit WVU because they made it obvious that they were not going to give him the competitive edge they promised him in the way of facilities, money to pay assistants, etc.
RR obviously isn't going to the pros, because they won't play his system. And if he wins NC's at UM, why would he want to go anywhere else?
As the system sits right now, the Big Ten is the path of least resistance to the NC game. If a UM team is truly elite, the only teams that have a legitimate shot to beat them are PSU and OSU.
Contrast that with an SEC schedule that can include UGA, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, and even Mississippi (don't underestimate Houston Nutt; FL did and we know what it got them), with Arkansas and Kentucky able to win sometimes.
UM is one of the two or three best jobs in the country if you are winning. No coach in his right mind would want to leave. Unless, of course, the administration decided to act like MSU's did when Saban was there, or WVU's did with RR.
Anyway, if RR is successful at UM, he will probably stay as long as they want him to. If he isn't, his leaving will be no great loss. I think he is going to be successful, and we may see UM in the NC game as early as 2010, but more likely in 2011.
I agree with those that think RR gets a few years.
Interestingly, if I remember correctly, Carr after back to back 4 loss seasons to start his career, hadn't exactly endeared himself to a lot of people (especially coming off of back to back 4 loss seasons from Moeller). What kind of saved Carr was two HUGE upsets of OSU at the end of his first two seasons.
I remember Carr stating that BM told him he wanted him to be the coach there as long as BM was there. TA was given plenty of grace. I think it would be a huge mistake to release RR of his duties before at least 4 years.
After 4 years he will have his kids in there and everybody will understand his ways. If at that point we are still struggling then yes let's talk about how to get Les Miles to move to Ann Arbor, until then leave him alone and let him do what he does. My guess though is that, that will not be an issue. I think 8 wins this year (maybe 9) and a BCS bowl in 2010.