The 2012 season draws near. This topic may have been more appropriate in the winter or spring, but I’ve only just now taken the time to type it all out. Hopefully it will be one more way to get excited about the football year to come. Go Blue!
A Better Big Ten Conference Championship
2011 was the first year of the Big Ten Football Conference Championship game, and as a Michigan fan the first time I’ve really paid attention to a college conference championship game. When the teams were decided (Michigan State and Wisconsin), my immediate reaction was, “A rematch? How boring. What a waste.” I don’t agree with everything sacred to the MGoBlog-osphere, but I do agree with the value of “the regular season should mean something.” Wisconsin of course won the rematch in Indy, reversing the outcome of the regular season thriller in East Lansing, which served as a foreshadowing of the All-SEC rematch National Championship game. Whoop-dee-doo.
Also, I was curious to see how common rematches are in conference championship games in other conferences. The Big Ten is 1-for-1; what about the other conferences with championship games? It turns out that more than 1-in-3 conference championship games are repeats from the regular season.
CONF.
|
YEARS
|
REPEAT FREQ.
|
REPEAT YEARS
|
ACC
|
2005-2011
|
4 of 7 0.571
|
’07, ’08, ’09, ‘11
|
B10
|
2011
|
1 of 1 1.000
|
‘11
|
B12
|
1996-2010
|
6 of 15 0.400
|
’99, ’00, ’01, ’02, ’05, ‘07
|
C-USA
|
2005-2011
|
2 of 7 0.286
|
’06, ‘07
|
MAC
|
1997-2011
|
5 of 15 0.333
|
’99, ’00, ’03, ’04, ‘05
|
P12
|
2011
|
0 of 1 0.000
|
|
SEC
|
1992-2011
|
5 of 20 0.250
|
’00, ’01, ’03, ’04, ‘10
|
TOTAL
|
|
23 of 66 0.348
|
|
There must be a better way to determine the conference champion.
What if, instead of just two teams meeting up to play a 9th conference game, all 12 played a 9th game? What if the 9th game was guaranteed to not be a rematch, but also was dynamic enough to get intriguing year-end match-ups? The better way I’d like to propose is a “plus-one” 9th conference game, which we’ll call the “8+1 Conference Schedule.”
Each of the 12 Big Ten teams plays 8 of their 11 conference opponents, leaving 3 teams they don’t get to play. The “plus-one” conference game would be against one team you didn’t play, determined at the end of the 8 conference games, with priority given to sorting out the conference champion and intriguing match-ups. The “plus-one” game would be hosted on campus by the team with the better conference record through 8 games. In the event of a tie, whichever team was on the road the last time would host the game.
Practically speaking, this would probably work best if the 8 games finished the weekend before Thanksgiving, each Big Ten team then had a bye on Thanksgiving weekend, and then played the “plus-one” games the first week of December. That would allow sufficient time to make the pairings and sell tickets, plus give the players a breather and a holiday. Also, whether this would be a 13th game or would replace one non-conference game (keeping a 12-game schedule) is open for debate..
Okay, so here’s what it would have looked like in 2011. The Big Ten Conference standings turned out as follows:
LEADERS
|
WINS
|
LOSSES
|
DID NOT PLAY
|
Wisconsin
|
6
|
2
|
Mich, Iowa, NW
|
Penn State
|
6
|
2
|
MSU, Mich, Minn
|
Purdue
|
4
|
4
|
MSU, Neb, NW
|
Ohio State
|
3
|
5
|
Iowa, NW, Minn
|
Illinois
|
2
|
6
|
MSU, Neb, Iowa
|
Indiana
|
0
|
8
|
Mich, Neb, Minn
|
LEGENDS
|
WINS
|
LOSSES
|
DID NOT PLAY
|
Michigan State
|
7
|
1
|
PSU, Pur, Ill
|
Michigan
|
6
|
2
|
Wisc, PSU, Ind
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
3
|
Pur, Ill, Ind
|
Iowa
|
4
|
4
|
Wisc, OSU, Ill
|
Northwestern
|
3
|
5
|
Wisc, Pur, OSU
|
Minnesota
|
2
|
6
|
PSU, OSU, Ind
|
Michigan State at 7-1 gets first consideration, and could play Penn State (6-2), Purdue (4-4), or Illinois (2-6). Best Match-up: Penn State
Wisconsin is next since they shared the top record in Leaders division with Penn State, but won head-to-head. They could play Michigan (6-2), Iowa (4-4), or Northwestern (3-5). Best Match-up: Michigan
Nebraska is the next team remaining after Penn State and Michigan got snatched up. They could play Purdue (4-4), Illinois (2-6), or Indiana (0-8). Best Match-up: Purdue
Iowa is the best team remaining, and they didn’t play Wisconsin (7-1), Ohio State (3-5), or Illinois (2-6). Ohio State is the best match-up, but then Northwestern would have no one left to play. Best Match-up: Illinois
Northwestern didn’t play Wisconsin (7-1), Purdue (4-4), or Ohio State (3-5). Best Match-up: Ohio State
Minnesota didn’t play Penn State (6-2), Ohio State (3-5), or Indiana (0-8). Battle of the basement-dwellers! Best Match-up: Indiana
2011 “Plus-One” Conference Games (home team in CAPS)
· MICHIGAN STATE (7-1) v. Penn State (6-2)
· WISCONSIN (6-2) v. Michigan (6-2)*
· NEBRASKA (5-3) v. Purdue (4-4)
· IOWA (4-4) v. Illinois (2-6)
· OHIO (3-5) v. Northwestern (3-5)**
· MINNESOTA (2-6) v. Indiana (0-8)
* Michigan last hosted v. Wisconsin, in 2008
** Northwestern last hosted v. Ohio, in 2008
So, on the first Saturday of December, would you rather have the line-up above? Or Wisconsin-Michigan State, The Rematch in Indy!!!
In this scenario, Michigan State would probably end up the undisputed champion, with a home win over Penn State. The only confusing scenario is if Penn State and Michigan win their games, and then three teams end up with 7-2 conference records. For the top bowl bid, we would then go to traditional tie-breakers. The head-to-head results give the edge to Penn State, by virtue of beating Michigan State who beat Michigan (Michigan and Penn State didn’t play each other even with the plus-one). In the event that head-to-head can’t break the tie, the next tie-breaker would be least-recent champion gets the top bowl bid. Simple enough.
8+1 Conference Schedule Benefits:
· No underwhelming repeat conference championship game
· Values the regular season games already played
· On-campus rather than neutral-site means most tickets will be sold to fans who care about the match-up
· The whole Big Ten is playing in December, raising our end-of-season profile against other conferences
· More interesting way of determining the conference champion AND unique to the Big Ten “brand” (sets us apart from the SEC, ACC, P12, and B12)
Thoughts? Critiques?