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I was just telling my son…

I was just telling my son tonight about Randy Kinder. Watched him when I was in middle school and my older brother was in the marching band. All we did was run every play. But if Kinder got 4-5 yards past the line of scrimmage, he went all the way. Too bad he didn't make it at Notre Dame. Very talented athlete.

Also, ELHS is not total Spartyville, contrary to what one might assume. Plenty of us went to UofM every year. And I'm told that the football coach of my era, Jeff Smith, played at Michigan. Go Trojans, and go Blue!

I've had a similar thought…

I've had a similar thought before. It would make kick-offs more interesting and many of them less dangerous since return teams wouldn't actually get to return as many kick-offs.

But I think it would better to award 1 point, not 3. Without looking up hard numbers (don't have time to go looking for data at the moment), I'd guess a team kicks off on average between 4-7 times per game. That's a lot of points that could be scored on kick offs if 3 points are awarded. 1 is still more interesting and rewards kickers, but doesn't drastically alter scoring.

My 2 cents.

I am interested, and would…

I am interested, and would take my 3 sons, ages 9, 6, and 3. Very sorry to hear about ok it your dad's battle with Alzheimer's. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

Correction: we "lost" the first 4 minutes of the 2nd half

Beilein said it in the post-game interview, Ace reiterated it on the podcast, even going so far as to correct Brian: "We won every 4 minutes of the 2nd half"

Not so.  We lost the first 4-minute segment (20min - 16min) and we tied the final 4-minute segment (4min - 0min):

  • Halftime score: UL-36, UM-28
  • 16 minutes remaining: UL-45, UM-36 (-1)
  • 12 minutes remaining: UL-49, UM-44 (+4)
  • 8 minutes remaining: UL-53, UM-53 (+5)
  • 4 minutes remaining: UL-59, UM-63 (+4)
  • Final score: UL-69, UM-73 (+/-0)
It was BronxBlue who called

It was BronxBlue who called Staudt a hack, not the OP. Did you read the article? He's coming off as level-headed.

Link

Article: http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/2015/05/23/staudt-ripof…

Who's the "hack"?

Double post

Who's the "hack"?

Tim Staudt is the antithesis of a "hack" journalist. This is an internet message board so I guess I should expect the lowest common denominator, but I'm calling you out and up to a higher (better) standard. Here is Tim Staudt's bio from wilx.com, his employer:

"Tim Staudt has been a mid-Michigan broadcaster for over 40 years, the longest tenure of any sportscaster on television in the state.

Known as the "Dean of Sports" , Tim has anchored the sportscasts at WILX in Lansing, since 1980. Prior to that, he was the Sports
Director at the former WJIM-TV in Lansing from 1970-1980.

Tim has won several awards in the industry and serves on numerous area charities.

Tim also hosts the popular "Staudt on Sports" radio program each weekday at noon on Sports Radio 730 WVFN (The Fan).
Debuting on March 8, 1993, the show has grown to become the most widely listened of its type in Michigan.

Tim has hosted a number of coaches shows over the years and has hosted Big Ten Basketball play-by-play for more than 10 years.

Tim is married to Cathy and they have three sons, all residing in Okemos.

He graduated from East Lansing High School in 1967 and Michigan State University with a journalism degree in 1971."

+1 and ditto

I logged in to make the same kind of comment. This is a law enforcement thing, and universities can't and shouldn't handle it. Perhaps they should proactively collaborate with local law enforcement to figure out how to reduce the incidence of rape on campus. But the schools can't play judge and jury.

Brian wishes Hatch will be medicalled?

Is it just me or does it seem like Brian can't mention Austin Hatch without mentioning that Hatch might get a medical scholarship. Brian, give it a rest. Stop being a wet blanket on a great story. We don't need that scholarship so badly that we should be wishing Hatch won't be able to suit up the maize and blue anymore. It comes off as heartless, let the kid have four years of a dream come true in the face of terrible tragedy after terrible tragedy. Let Beilein be a class act. It's what you like about him and Michigan, as do I.

iPhone auto-correct!!!

Medicated should read "medicaled"

Austin Hatch

Austin Hatch is worth mentioning. I know conventional wisdom is he gets medicated, but don't count him out. He's got an offer, he's verbally committed, and if Beilein thinks there's any chance he could play at this level he'll honor that commitment.

B2G (c)?

The real question is: do Jim Delany and Co have "B2G" copyrighted yet?  

With the trend towards super-sizing conferences, I suspect he's gonna need it in the near future.

I Like Pods

I like the pods idea and was talking with a fellow M alumn about something like this.  For me, I'd rather the pods be all about geography/traditional rivals rather than "competitive balance" because more and more I'm interested in seeing good football games week after week.  So I'd Pod the teams up like so:

POD A: Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

POD B: Northwestern, Illinios, Purdue, Indiana

POD C: Michigan, MSU, OSU, Notre Dame

POD D: Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse/UConn/Etc

Keep everything else you said about pairing up pods into divisions, play one team from cross-divisional pods per year at random.

If Notre Dame is a pipe-dream (which, probably), then shift Penn State into POD C and let POD D be an East Coast leftover Pod.

Seriously, the more guarenteed interesting football each year the better.  Who cares about competitive balance if it means we have to play Maryland and Rutgers every year, and Wisconsin once every 5 years?

 

Flip ND and IU

Flip ND with IU and I'm with you.  Who cares about so-called "competitive balance".  Wouldn't it be better to gaurantee seeing UM play OSU, MSU, and ND every year?

Competitive Balance Overrated

I think the practical outcomes of "competitive balance" makes it an overrated value.  I'd rather see good matchups every week, every year than have "balanced" divisions resulting in lots of games I don't care about every year.  So, taking your four clusters, I'd rather see Michigan-MSU-OSU paired with Nebraska-Wisconsin-Minnesota-Iowa than Northwestern-Illinios-Purdue-Indiana.  That's four boring conference games every year counterbalance with two interesting ones every year.  Wouldn't it be better to see MSU, OSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin every year?

ACC Poaching

So we're definitely poaching the ACC then.  I don't know what to think.  I guess our main priorities are TV markets and AAU membership.

So, add UCLA to the short list!

/ducks

My own math

Based on scoring averages, I'm predicting the experts will say OSU -4 for the spread and a final score of 31-27 OSU.

But we have the best QB they've faced all year, and they've narrowly escaped several games.  Their luck will run out.  Devin and Denard steal the show.  M 35-28 ...

BEAT OHIO!

Good stuff

Interesting metric, seems like a quality one. One thing people have said in other comments regards whether a team is in the top or bottom half of all FBS teams, and then valuing them either good or bad. A binary evaluation isn't as good here as a gradient one, IMO. Dividing all 124 FBS teams into thirds or quarters is better.



Taking quarters to your metric, the B1G passing has 1 Q1 team, 1 Q2 team, 7 Q3 teams, and 3 Q4 teams.



Rushing has 4 Q1 teams, 3 Q2 teams, 4 Q3 teams, and 1 Q4 team.



So, again, the B1G is below-average-to-bad at passing; average-to-above at rushing.

Maybe

Maybe YPA is better than YPG on the whole, I definitely see what you're saying.  Total yards passing doesn't tell the whole story, especially in terms of efficiency.

On the other hand, the top YPA teams in the Big Ten have QBs who don't throw much because they're good at running and not great at throwing.  Your unweighted YPA 1-2-3 is Denard Robinson, Taylor Martinez, and Braxton Miller.  They are followed up by Wisconsin's duo of Danny O'Brien and Joel Stave, then Minnesota's duo of Marqueis Grey and Max Shortell.  I wouldn't consider any of those guys good passing QBs.

In each of their cases, it seems like they average a lot of yards per passing attempt because they don't throw very often, because they're really good at running (or their RB is) and not great at throwing.  Throwing is a known weakness, so you don't throw often, but when you do you have a higher level of efficiency.  See Denard Robinson before they Bye week and after, where his passing efficiency has gone up directly because he's throwing the ball less.  And why is he throwing the ball less?  Because he's still not a great passer, demonstrated by the Notre Dame interception bonanza.  So YPA doesn't seem to tell the full story either.

Also, it's interesting to see that the Big Ten features 6 teams at 100+ nationally in YPG and 5 teams at 100+ nationally in YPA.  So whichever metric you choose (probably a combination is best), the conference is not very good at throwing the ball.

7th in QB rating

Yards per attempt might be the best metric, but QB rating might also be, for which Denard is 7th. INTs are INTs, and Denard amasses them in large numbers every year. Not convinced by your argument ... Yet. But I am hoping you're right. And I can see that Denard is a better passer this year as I watch the games.

Catholic is not "ethnic"

Catholic is a religion, not an ethnicity.



Enjoyed the post and agree with what you're saying. I hope and expect we'll continue to play ND for years to come.

Careful research

I researched each team, compared complex statistical data, plugged each team into NCAA '13 and simulated 1,000,000 seasons, looked at the rules of the Snark Draft ... 

"Rules: Inverse snake. Everyone drafts a full team of 11 offensive/defensive players, two kickers, a FB/HB type (assuming 3 WR), and a nickelback. You can move people around within reason (OL, DL, LB) but those moves will be looked upon skeptically by your fellow drafters and viciously attacked when it comes to make a case for your teams. Once the three other players have drafted a position, the last to go must pick the last player at that position within two rounds*.

When we are done we put the thing to a user vote after making our case. Whoever has Denard wins."

and can say conslusively, beyond a shadow of a doubt that Seth has Denard, therefore Seth wins.

Denarded by Seth

Except that Seth got Denard (see rules), therefore game-set-match.

Excellent idea

Seriously, this is an excellent idea.  Seems like it would never happen, but here's hoping.

Deal precedes Brandon

The deal was done by Martin, so Brandon apparently feels no allegience to the fact that we agreed to play in Storrs CT (or wherever their stadium is).  I get asking about moving it, I get pushing back a little.  But I'm with the "honor the deal" folks.  I know it's about the brand and it's about the money, but the "Michigan Brand" more and more just means "money for Michigan".  Show some respect for UConn and play at their place.  DB, if you don't like the deal, be sure not to make one like it on your watch.

Class of 2025?

Of the three guys pictured above, what position is the guy on the left being recruited for?  And for what class I wonder?

Needs a new Top-3

If his top-3 is indeed Florida, Auburn, and Michigan, he needs a new top-3.  Doubtful Saban would let him transfer within the SEC.  And unless he's thinking about transfering after Week 1 of this year, then Saban won't let him transfer to Michigan either ... since, you know, we are gonna play each other.

When is he thinking about transfering?

Co-sign

Co-sign. Great modification, perfectly addresses the ticketing issue.

Point taken, but more viewers possible

I think Minnesota and Indiana fans would have enjoyed that match-up. Which makes me think more Big Ten fans would watch Big Ten football the first weekend in December in this format. Each fan base has a game to watch, probably 2 or 3 to see what the outcomes will be. Last December I made myself watch the MSU-WISC game at first, but couldn't stay engaged in it. I didn't care who won, and I probably was in good company across the Big Ten football fan base.

Same simple explanation

... that dads have been telling their kids for years (until last year): the team with the best record is the champion.



Tie-breaker #1: head-to-head

Tie-breaker #2: least-recent champion

Oops

You're right.  I was just actually trying to edit it and was told I didn't have access to do that.  88 scholarships, so we are over by 3.

Scholarship Math

First, best of luck, Mr. Carter.

Second, the maths:

  • 76 currently on scholarship
  • (minus) 13 are in their final year of elegibility*
  • (plus) 23 currently committed
  • (plus) 2 yet-to-be committed
  • (equals) 86 scholarship players for 2013

So a 25-person incoming class of 2013 means we need exactly one more person to not get a 5th year, choose to leave on their own terms, or get booted.

 

* D.Robinson, V.Smith, R.Roundtree, B.Moore, E.Mealer, P.Omameh, R.Barnum, W.Campbell, C.Roh, K.Demens, B.Hawthorne, JT.Floyd, J.Kovacs

Harder 2012 Schedule

Great work here.  I expect a major confounding factor to be the relative difficulty of our schedule.  2011's schedule was very favorable (8 home games, didn't play Wisconsin, got OSU at home when they were terrible).  The 2012 schedule is much more difficult (6 road games including vs. Alabama in Dallas, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State).  It could be that the defense is as good as last year but is worse statistically because of the big jump in schedule difficulty.  It would be interesting to see whether this was a factor between Mattison's first and second years at WMU.

 
Shocked and saddened here.

 

Shocked and saddened here. Never thought Smotrycz would transfer. He's a Beilein 4-man all the way, had contributed some good play, had afew things to work n, and was likely to be a contributor going forward. Where did that come from?

I also thought Brundidge had said to a newspaper in the last month that he would definitely be back next year. We have minutes to be won in next year's backcourt ... What happened?

I get Christian trying his luck elsewhere, but still sad to see him go. I appreciated his play when he got on the court. That was just overly often and looked unlikely going forward, so i guess that makes sense.

Seriously, best of luck to each. Thanks for what you've given. You will be missed.

Early v Late

The starting 5 will probably evolve through the season next year, mostly because we have a lot of talent coming in who will need to learn the offense. I think the coaches will start the more experienced guys initially, but i expect the freshmen will crack the starting line-up eventually. We've seen several freshmen come right in and start recently (Burke, Hardaway, Morris, Morgan, even Douglass and Novak). But they did so because there was no one else competing with them for the starting roles. Next year there will be a lot of competition at every position except PG, so I expect a lot of movement in the first part of the season. Still, here's a guess:

1 - Burke (obviously)
2 - Hardaway (not great ball handling, but he's pretty much just a shooter at this point)
3 - Robinson (we need a new focal point for the offense, GR3 has the most weapons)
4 - Smotrycz (for the offensive "fit" only, probably won't be the starter later into the season)
5 - Horford (he started the first game or two this year, has more potential upside than Morgan)

Not gonna happen

The last time Beilein lost an opening round game in the NCAA tournament was 1996 at Canisius. The last time in the NIT was 1994, also at Canisius. He has won 9 consecutive opening round games in those two tournaments, going back to 1998 at Richmond. Sorry, Ohio.

Be careful ...

... I'm just saying, we know he'll take you down without warning.

Classy

That was classy on your part, Dan. I'm excited to see MSU and Michigan competing at the top of the B1G in both football and basketball. That's how it should be. Congrats on the tourney title and the 1-seed. Good luck, brother.

Everyone

The best answer is "everyone". Every player would have done better under Beilein because he is. Ash superior in (1) developing talent and (2) game-planning than either Ellerbe or Amaker. We play an offense that just plain gets guys open, and in a variety of ways. Beilein has coached not only the famous 1-3-1 defense, but also stout man-to-man, 2-3 zone. Every player would have benefitted from playing for a much better coach.

Colorado

Bill McCartney was the HC at Colorado 1982-1994. He was national HC of the year in 1989 and shared the National Champoinship in 1990. In his last year, he came to the big house and beat us on a last second 64 yard Hail Mary. It was epically crushing. He left coaching to oversee a ministry he founded called Promise Keepers.

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McCartney

Dull Road Blowout represents progress

Fellow fans,

This dull road blowout represents progress.  We didn't do this the first four years of Beilein ball because we just weren't good enough yet.  But the beauty of what's happening is easy to miss.  

Michigan is 3rd in the Big Ten (top conference RPI in the country) and it's reasonable to predict that's where they'll finish the year.  That would be one slot higher than last year, but probably a whole standard deviation better than last year.  Remember that last year's Big Ten was 3 teams at the top (OSU, MSU, PU) and 4 teams in the middle (MICH, ILL, MSU, PSU), all of which went 9-9.  We are presently 8-3 in conference.  [EDIT: ... having played KenPom's #3 toughest schedule in the nation thus far].

They are accomplishing this with seemingly unglamorous wins. They are accopmlishing this while going only 6-8 guys deep most games, 3 of whom are in the midst of major shooting slumps: Hardaway, Smotrycz, and (until last night, perhaps) Vogrich.  

We have just three 4-star players on our current roster (Smotrycz, Burke, and Brundidge), only one of whom is getting substantial and productive playing time.

And it looks like this team will make a Sweet 16 run.  Let that sink in again.  THIS team will make a SWEET 16 run.  We last witnessed that in 1994, friends.

This is a great year of Michigan basketball.  It's the last year of Zack Novak and Stu Douglass, who both unexpectedly took big steps forward in their individual games (I guess staying for 4 years DOES make a difference).  It's a year in which we don't/shouldn't have wildly high expectations for what the team will accomplish, which makes it fun to root for them because we aren't constantly disappointed that they didn't win by 40.

So enjoy this year, fellow Wolverines.  This is a great year of Michigan basketball.  And we can look forward to even greater things when next year rolls around ... but that's next year.  Let's savor this moment.

Big impact

As you said, Green will likely be out or severly limited in this game due to the injury.  Obviously, that's a big loss for MSU.  He's their emotional leader, their leading scorer (14.9, Appling is #2 at 12.0), leading rebounder (10.3, Dawson is #2 at 4.6), and #2 assist man (3.5, Appling is #1 at 3.9).  Their team goes through him, so on the face of it, this should be a big boost for Michigan.

On the other hand, this presents a game-planning problem for UM.  We've been effective limiting Green in the past three match-ups, which has really helped us win each time.  If he's scratched from their line-up, we need a new game plan.  I like Beilein as a game-planner, so I expect this to be "advantage Michigan".

I'm guessing that Austin Thornton will get the nod to take Green's place as a starter.  But it could be Gauna, Kearny, or Byrd.  On the whole, it looks like MSU will have to play "small ball" on Sunday.  It'll be interesting to see what effect that has on us, since that's the strategy we've used against them to good success of late.

Basically, it drastically changes the game.  How exactly is unclear.  Is it a big advantage for Michigan or an opportunity for Michigan State?  Looking forward to Sunday!

1. Wisconsin

2.

1. Wisconsin

2. Michigan

3. Nebraska

4. Michigan State

5. Illinois

6. Iowa

7. Northwestern

8. Penn State

9. Ohio State

10. Indiana

11. Purdue

12. Minnesota

Like it

First of all, I like what you're doing here.  You've thought through some good options, gave good analysis.  Well done.  It sparked my thinking on the topic and had a couple ideas to throw on the pile:

 

COLOR theme, based on the team's primary color; a bit like the blacks and blues split

Red Division: Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, OSU, Michigan State  (the B1G powers that be could claim actual color-blindness on that last one)

Black-and-Blue Division: Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Penn State

 

ANIMAL KINGDOM theme, based on the mascots

Man Division: Cornhuskers, Fighting Illini, Boilermakers, Hoosiers, Spartans, Buckeyes  (I told my 2-year-old son about this and said it didn't quite work because the Buckeyes are a nut, to which he said, "No nut" ... amen, son, amen)

Beast Division: Hawkeyes, Gophers, Badgers, Wildcats, Wolverines, Nitany Lions

You could also call the divisions "Warriors" and "Beasts", but that's about as bad as "Leaders" and "Legends".

 

Speaking of which, how did the B1G powers-that-be decide on a terrible logo AND come up with division names that are both incredibly pompous and hokey at the same time?  I mean, I didn't know that latter was even possible.  But, congratulations, they did it.

Divisions = Disgusting

So, if it is indeed Nebraska and only Nebraska, the most obvious set-up for divisions is East-West, looking like so:

EAST

  • Penn State
  • Ohio State
  • Michigan
  • Michigan State
  • Indiana
  • Purdue

WEST

  • Northwestern
  • Illinois
  • Wisconsin
  • Minnesota
  • Iowa
  • Nebraska

Terribly lop-sided in favor of the East.  North-South requires a fairly arbitrary line to be drawn.  This is clearly a football-and-money decision.  It's not good for college sports and it's not good for the Big Ten.  But what does that matter?

#3 QB

One thing we learned from this game is that our third-best QB is definitely ... CONER! He looked totally gumpy trying an option pitch, but his throws looked good. He had good touch and good accuracy. I mean, it WAS D-State, but still ... he looked better than Sheridan.

Also, as was mentioned by Enjoy Life, I was totally against this kind of game, but changed my mind afterwards. It was good to have a mid-season scrimmage for all the reasons already mentioned.

It still might be better for all of college football if FBSvFCS games didn't count in the Win-Loss records. I mean, why are the two division separated if they can play one another in the regular season? These games are usually an embarrassment to the FCS teams and simply pad the records of the FBS teams.

There are plenty of low-level FBS teams to invite to the Big House for a lighter week: Florida International, Florida Atlantic, Temple, the Mountain West Conference. Of course, the only place one can make this kind of statement as an M fan is here. The rest of the nation simply responds with, "You're just upset about App State."

EDIT: I just noticed something in the box score, which I missed when I watched them game live: WE NEVER PUNTED. Zoltan had the day off. Bryan Wright, however, is going to be sore all week after 10 kick-offs.

I'm guessing 8-4

It would be very sad for this team to finish 6-6 (B10: 2-6) or 7-5 (B10:3-5). We really need the psychological edge of finishing at least .500 in the B10. We had our chances against MSU and Iowa, and couldn't pull it out. So this team needs to dig deep, keep making improvements, and get 3 more conference wins. Best bets: @Illinois and vPurdue. The other three (vPSU, @Wisconsin, vOSU) could each be won, but none emerges in my mind as a clear front-runner. I think we'll get one or two of them, though.

And besides, the players are talking about going 10-2. Let's get on their bandwagon!

Reality Check

I'm a through-and-through UM guy. Class of '01, grew up in East Lansing with Maize-N-Blue parents driving me and my brothers to the season ticketed seats at Michigan Stadium. Don't discount my loyalty.

Why are we ranked?

Why are we ranked at all? I've watched every game (form overseas, no less) and we can't possibly be one of the 25 best teams in the country. I'm stoked about the 4-0 start and I think we have some great years ahead. I'm rooting for more clutch wins from this on-again, off-again team. No defense? No worries. Tate saves the day, etc. But are we really better than 90 of the 110+ teams in FBS? Are there only 20-some teams better than ours? I can't believe that's possible.

CBs

One other potential step forward was the coaches throwing in the towel with Cissoko. He's very fast and can keep up with any WR ... but he's too short to make his speed matter.

The coaches yanked him somewhere in the 1st Qtr, I think, and that was a good move. Giving the JT's (Floyd & Turner) some playing time will pay divedends down the road IMHO. They can't do any worse than Cissoko, and may develop into decent compliments to Warren.