2016 Recruiting: Defense

Submitted by ifis on

Ratings are on a 1(lowest) - 10(highest) scale.  (Edit: 5 is the mean.  Above 5 is a comparative advantage.  Below 5 is a comparative disadvantage.)  Relation to current depth chart and principal opponents is included throughout.  

Take-aways:  Rashan Gary is a coup, but Rashan Gary with David Long and Lavert Hill could lay the foundation for the most dominant defense in college football.  Neither ILB nor DT are as dire of concerns in the short or medium term as some folks seem to think.  OLB and the HSP are unkowns over the long term as Brown takes over and Peppers departs.  Brown as DC makes OLB one of the most intriguing positions in the class.  If you are looking for a sleeper of the year candidate, that is a good place to start.

#1)  defensive end

Michigan lands a generational talent in Rashan Gary.  The two Johnsons are both very good prospects.

Importance to scheme: 10.  

Importance to depth chart:  7.  DL is deep, but Gary fills a long sought need at 'elite pass rusher.'

Comparative advantage to the rest of conference: 8.  B1G boasts excellent pass-rushing DEs and recruited very well at the position again in 2016.  However, Gary has the potential to be a generational talent. 

Comparative advantage to national championship contenders:  8.   Rashan Gary has that much potential.  

#2) Defensive Tackle

Rashan Gary is elite.  Dwumfour will eventually be at NT/3T.  Onwenu might move over.

Importance to scheme: 8. 

Importance to depth: 6.  Might be critical to 2017, depending on whether or not Mone leaves for the draft.

Comparative advantage to the rest of conference: 10.  Ryan Glasgow was one of the best players on defense this year.  Bryan Mone might end up being better than Glasgow.  They will make our ILBs look better than they really are.   Rashan Gary is the best prospect in the country.  All of these players could probably start for any team in the B1G.

Comparative advantage to national championship contenders: 9.  The Glasgow/Mone rotation is the best NT/3T rotation in the country.  Gary is the best recruit in the country.  Onwenu is a very, very large man who will probably play OL.  We have the best DL in the country.

#3) inside linebackers

Devin Bush Jr. could compete for playing time immediately.  Elysee Mbem-Bosse and Dytarious Johnson provide solid options. 

Importance to scheme: 5.  Our monster DTs should keep blockers off the ILB.

Importance to depth chart: 7.  I’m not as freaked out about this as most fans are.  Gedeon, McCray and Furbush all have solid tools.  Between them and the three recruits, we should be able to find two capable starters.  I honestly think position coaching was a problem here last year and Brown is known for his LB coaching.  Hope I’m right about this.

Comparative advantage to the rest of the conference:  4.  Riley Bullough, a good, but not great B1G ILB, is far more proven than our LBs.  On the other hand, both Bush and Mbem-Bosse are higher rated recruits than any other incoming ILBs in the B1G.

Comparative advantage to national championship contenders: 1.  Compare our ILBs to Alabama’s Reuben Jones and Ben Davis.  We are hoping for solid, unspectacular play.  They expect All-American level play.

#4) outside linebackers/WDE

This is where it really gets wierd.  Carlo Kemp is an OLB/DE hybrid type that will probably red-shirt.  Josh Uche is a low ranked OLB prospect who is faster than all of our WR commits.  Devin Gil was originally a safety prospect and he is also faster than most of our WR commits.  Ron Johnson might fit this role.

Importance to scheme: 1/9  Very unimportant in the near-term.  Will eventually be very important under Brown.  Expect red-shirts with a schematic transition to more 3-4 and less Hybrid Space Player after Peppers departs.

Importance to depth chart: 8.  Important for Brown to bring in the type of athletes he will eventually utilize.  Expect this to become more important in future years.  

Comparative advantage to rest of conference: 2.  Very few OLBs on roster, hard to project current recruits.  Even so, it’s hard to beat MSU’s STAR LB and Ohio State’s players, including incoming 5-star Keandre Jones.

Comparative advantage to national championship contenders: 2, but give it time.

#5) Hybrid Space Player

Khaleke Hudson is a big hitter, but he’s not nearly as fast as Peppers.  Long and Hill are fast, but they’re almost certainly not going to be as good against the run as Peppers.  Take away: Peppers is sui generis.

Importance to scheme: 10/4.  Critically important in the near term, especially against spread offenses.  Likely to move away from it, as a matter of degree, when Peppers departs and OLB rises in importance.

Importance to depth: 2.  Come on man, Peppers screen-obliterating, slot-cancelling athleticism can’t be replaced.  All this heir apparent stuff is just crazy talk.  Bask in the fact that we are blessed to watch Peppers play in the Maize and Blue and don’t set yourself of for disappointment farther down the road.  We do need to identify solid nickel-backs who are capable run defenders, but that’s not the same as the pipe-dream of building HSP depth.

Comparative advantage to the rest of conference: 10.  Peppers is sui generis.  Enjoy watching him play while we can.  

Comparative advantage to national championship contenders: 10.  Peppers is sui generis.  Enjoy him doing his thing.

#6) cornerback

Michigan lands David Long and Lavert Hill, two elite athletes with the potential to be lock-down corners.

Importance to scheme: 9.  Second only to an elite pass rusher.  Especially devastating when paired with elite pass rusher.  

Importance to depth chart.  7.  Long and Hill are probably crucial to the 2017 depth chart, when Jourdan Lewis, and maybe Peppers, depart.

Comparative advantage to the rest of the conference: 10.  Both of Michigan’s top 2 prospects have more potential in this role than any other recruit in the B1G East.  They will have to vie for playing time behind arguably the best lockdown corner in the country (Jourdan Lewis).  UM’s comparative advantage over the B1G here is ridiculous.

Comparative advantage to national championship contenders:  8.   Long and Hill are comparable to the elite prospects pulled in by the SEC, Florida State/Clemson, and USC.  We have the potential to field the strongest elite DL/press coverage combination in the country by a significant margin.

#7) safety

Khaleke Hudson, Josh Metellus, Ahmir Mitchell, and Brad Hawkins.

Importance to scheme: 6, so long as level of play is adequate but unspectacular. 

Importance to depth chart.  9.  Other than 2016 and '17 recruits, its just Kinnel at S in 2017.

Comparative advantage to the rest of the conference.  5.  Our players and recruits stack up well against the rest of the conference, but we don’t have an obvious advantage.

Comparative advantage to national championship contenders.  3.  Our safeties won’t undermine our defense, but they won’t be All-Americans either.  

 

 

Comments

DukeSilver

February 4th, 2016 at 7:03 AM ^

Alabama seems to be able to rotate two complete defensive lines in and out of games at will if they want and just dominate up front.

I'm hopeful that with Gary and other guys we are trending toward that ourselves.

So happy we got the two corners as Hill and Long both look legit and have the potential to step in when we lose everyone.

Hudson's high school film is impressive and hoping that he can step in at safety and while he won't be Peppers, maybe a Peppers lite?

Been a fan of UM since the days of AC and can't remember a time when I've been this excited for UM football.

Go Blue!

ps. I live in Columbus and hate OSU so very much and tired of hearing their fans talk trash.

flashOverride

February 4th, 2016 at 9:15 AM ^

Well, we saw in both the AFC Championship Game and the CoFoPoff Semifinal what a game-controlling presence a dominant D-line can have. Two of the best QBs at their respective levels (emphasis to be clear I'm not putting Cook anywhere near the GOAT) couldn't do a damn thing because their O-lines were getting their doors blown off.

Michigan's LB corps may still be far from elite this year, but with a little more athleticism than last year's unit, combined with that D-line and corners and Jabrill Peppers...it's gonna goddamn hard to put points on the board against this team.  

ldevon1

February 4th, 2016 at 9:17 AM ^

According to Marcus Ray and Sam on the insider, Brown runs a true 4 - 3 and doesn't use a hybrid LB / safety the way Peppers was used last year. They claim Kemp will either play inside / middle LB or play with his hand in the dirt, depending on how much size he gains. He will not be and outside LB. Peppers will be a true safety, and our outside LB's will be smaller quicker athletes who will be blitzing and better in coverage. Corners will still play press coverage, and the safeties will roam and switch up blitzes.  

ifis

February 4th, 2016 at 9:39 AM ^

Good point.  My understanding is that Brown's been known to use all these as base schemes depending on the personnel available on any given team.  Last year, he used a 4-3 as a base but I expect him to use more 3-4, as a matter of degree, at some point.  

StephenRKass

February 4th, 2016 at 9:18 AM ^

I have one quibble:  I think that in several areas, Ohio State is comparable to Michigan.

  • Regarding your analysis in the secondary, I would agree that Long and Hill are very good, and were critical to this year's class. I think, however, that Fuller is comparable or better. And they have a second 4 star DB in Wayne Davis.
  • On the DL for Ohio State, Nick Bosa is a 5 star, supposedly better than his brother. Jonathan Cooper is also a 5 star DE, and Malik Barrow isn't far behind at 4 stars. When you put us at a comparative advantage of 8 and 9 to the rest of the conference, I think you underestimate Ohio State.
  • And in the area of LB, I think that OSU is also comparable or better, and that you underestimate the importance of strong LB play.

The loss this year to OSU galls me. Yes, we can blame it on the injury to Glasgow and Mone. 

But the fact is, they have had our number, and this was a humiliation. Once Glasgow went down, our DL was gashed in several games. I am ecstatic about the class that just came in. But I won't be doing any bragging until we actually, you know, win the games against MSU and OSU. And see dominant play.

flashOverride

February 4th, 2016 at 9:27 AM ^

I would agree with that. To be honest, I do not envy Jim's position going into this year. If he drops to 0-4 against the rivals, with serious attrition going into 2017, there's going to be a lot of (in the media and from dickbag fanbases, anyway), "Well, Michigan, you got your savior coach and still can't beat them...now what?". It's just a major gut kick how things played out last fall because now he's gotta win road games to avoid that. IF (and I take nothing for granted) we can get emergence at the QB position, I am confident with this defense that they can go into East Lansing and come out with a win. As good as I think this team is going to be, Columbus...is going to be tough. But I certainly write nothing off.  

ifis

February 4th, 2016 at 10:01 AM ^

good points. perhaps I'm being a homer, but here are my reasons:

-I consider Ohio State as the mean for national championship contender, but well above the mean for the rest of the conference.  I put the mean for the conference at about Penn State or Northwestern

-Fuller just is not as athetic as Long or Hill.  Fake 40 times and all that, but Long and Hill both have verified 4.40 and 4.41, respectively.  Fuller has a verified 4.59.  Davis has a 4.58.  That's a pretty big gap for DBs and I don't think an athlete can be an elite, shutdown corner with borderline 4.6 speed.

-I think Gary's potential is on a whole different level, so the gap between him and the other 5-stars is considerable.  He is in Fournette/Peppers/Clowney territory.

-completely agree about LB. 

-For our line to get gashed last year, we had to lose Glasgow AND Mone.  If we only lost one, we wouldn't have had the same issues.

I think Ohio State and Michigan now have comparable talent and have separated themselves from the rest of a strong B1G.  Next year, Michigan will have the advantage on defense and Ohio State will have the advantage on offense.  We should beat Michigan State next year and Ohio State should be a hell of a game.  

doggdetroit

February 4th, 2016 at 4:10 PM ^

The talent is comparable in the classes of 2012 (RS seniors), 2013 (seniors/RS Juniors) and 2016 (freshmen). Where OSU still has a huge advantage over Michigan is in the classes of 2014 (juniors/RS sophomores) and 2015 (sophomores/RS freshmen). While OSU brought in the 3rd and 7th ranked classes those years, Michigan brought in the 20th and 37th ranked classes as Hoke flamed out.



That's why 2016 is critical. Michigan's best players are seniors while OSU just lost 9 NFL early entrants from their would be senior class. In 2017 and 2018, OSU's senior classes will have a big talent advantage compared to Michigan's senior classes.



In short, it will take two more top 10 classes for the talent gap between OSU and Michigan to completely close.

ifis

February 4th, 2016 at 7:35 PM ^

It had Peppers, Mone, Cole and a bunch of top prospects who the jury is still out on.  The talent gap with Ohio State is mostly closed, with some concerns at a few positions.  I think we have a better defensive line, defensive backfield, wide receivers, and special teams.  They have better linebackers and running backs.  I'm not going to compare quarterbacks since the schemes are so different.  Same with tight ends.  Offensive line is the x-factor.  The offensive line that develops the most by The Game is probably going to win The Game.

Wolverine 73

February 4th, 2016 at 10:10 AM ^

We got a great class.  So did Ohio State.  With continued good recruiting, good coaching and good schemes, this means we can anticipate that games with them in the future will get back to what they always used to be--tight, close affairs, where great plays or players or performances make the difference. But let's not kid ourselves that we have achieved huge recruiting advantages over them with this class.  They did well too.

uminks

February 4th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^

really exposed our weak LB. The zone blocking totally cancelled our DL strength and the spread play with an option QB just ran circles around our LB. I would have brought our safeties up in the box. Once OS's RB and QB made it through our DL they picked up extra yardage with ease. Hopefully our new DC can come up with a better game plan to slow down OSU and our offense can out score OSU.

Kwitch22

February 4th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^

Brown does run an adaptable 4-3, but I think this year we will see Peppers play the same roll he did last year, after he leaves the hybrid space player will probably go away. That said having two fast linebackers will make a huge difference against spread teams.