WTKA Roundtable 3/2/2023: That's Just Pops
Things discussed:
- Basketball Watchalong tonight with Brian, David, and Alex.
- Been saying "Nice Help!" involuntarily. Better awareness.
- Defense has gone from awful to meh with more Tarris Reed, Dug is more of a pest.
- Real bad refereeing luck and a banked-in three got Wisconsin back in the game but Michigan outplayed them.
- Kobe Bufkin talk: Is playing his way into the NBA, but can stick around and be a lottery pick. Hey? Hey? He's got a real head on his shoulders, despite being younger than Jett.
- Getting Jett back: less Tschetter.
- Dug has a pullup now. Still not seeing the offense but isn't a hole anymore.
- Illinois: They're hit or miss. Got a couple of guys who might be out this game…PG concussion, SF went on an energy drink bender after OSU. Sometimes Meyer just disappears anyways.
- Now that Hunter's getting some help he's playing like he's got something to play for.
- Amorion Walker: He's probably the 2nd corner, sounds like it's real but also sounds like it's not great news for the rest of the CBs. Can probably streamline their defense and do more pattern-match, because both Walker and Johnson are tall enough to play outside leverage all day.
- Hockey: Turned it on versus Notre Dame and went chaos. Very close to getting everyone back, need to stop being the #1 team at taking majors.
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Segment two is here. You can watch the video here:
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— Sam Webb (@SamWebb77) March 2, 2023
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Who among us hasn't gone on a five-day drinking and videogames bender after a loss to Ohio State?
Is Hunter coming back?
If I was a betting man I'd bet Jett, Hunter and Bufkin are all gone after this year.
Come on Seth, you're a parent of small children. You gotta know sometimes it's better to lie and keep everyone happy than tell the truth and make everyone feel bad.
though seth is probably right, i offer this:
jett won't jet, he doesn't need the $. also, he hasn't had that magical of a season and with injuries and his inability to play D, he might not be all that just yet.
hunter has a girl involved. she stays, he stays. realistically, if he leaves he's on his way to europe and the girl almost certainly won't be with him and skeeps doesn't deliver to germany. or spain. or wherever.
bufkin, ahh, he just won't go. because. i dunno. just because.
I like the way you think XM!
There is nothing wrong with maze and blue glasses!!
XM, I choose to believe that your take is insightful and brilliant.
that would probably be the very first idea i'd ever had that was either of those two things, but i'll take it.
hopefully seth is being a bit pessimistic, which is easy to do and you can see the logic. i just think that we won't lose all 3, that's all.
I would think there's got to be some good NIL money to keep Bufkin here. Maybe even with Hunter as well.
Yes, a OneMoreYearFund for Kobe and Hunter specifically could make a big difference!
Woof
no-one that I can recall has ever mentioned it, but I assume that those reporters that follow the team know a lot more than they say. I've been to most home games this year, and frankly, Jett's non-verbal on court communication between himself and his dad is the worst I have ever seen between a player and coach. Jett barely looks JH in the eye, doesn't seem to take criticism/instruction well, etc. (although that has improved over the last month, just as the team has).
Im not criticizing Jett for that - he's 19+ years old! I have kids that age, and believe me, they wouldnt/couldnt play for their dad as a coach. It's got to be real tough.
that doesn't even get into the fact that he's a college freshman living on campus with mom and dad. seems like that limits some of the experience too.
I don't know mama Howard at all; I can imagine a scenario where she knows what goes on in the NBA and she doesn't want her 19-20 year old son running in those streets just yet. seems to me that's the best/only chance of him coming back
AS for Kobe, I think this is about the greatest in season growth we have seen in a Michigan player over the Bielien/Howard era. You could reasonably project him to be a lottery pick (10-15) if Michigan gets 6-7 more games between this week, the BTT and the NCAAs. he might end up going before Jett! I assume that if he gets evaluated that high, there isn't enough NIL to keep him, which is in the "why can't we have nice things" bucket.
with all that, lets go 2-0 and get to the second weekend in march again!
I'm not doubting you Seth, but if they're "gone" where at they gonna go? Jett is projected as a low lottery pick, but his stock is on a negative trend and could sky rocket with one more year. HD & Bufkin are not even close to a projected draft pick at this point. Not a negative of their abilities but the current market dictates this and NIL is a game changer.
Walker and Johnson are tall enough to play outside leverage all day.
Wait. . . doesn't this really mean inside leverage? My understanding is that tall corners hedge inside because they're not as afraid of getting a fade thrown over them.
I came here to ask that same question.
Craig is far too focused on just raw per game averages when he tries to compare Burke and Dug’s freshman years and say they were just as good. The advanced stats (I know Craig poo poos advanced stats but that’s just dumb) show Burke was much better as a freshman: 19.4 player efficiency rating & 4.3 win shares for Burke compared to 12.7 & 1.8 for Dug. Burke was better and it wasn’t close. There’s a reason Burke had to make a draft decision to come back his sophomore year as he was projected for the 1st round.
a rising tide floats all boats, and i think i'd take trey's frosh team over dug's, all things considered.
Valid points but I never said Dug is "just as good."
Dug's rebound numbers are identical. Steals, Assist/TOs favor Dug. But scoring and shooting numbers favor Trey by a significant degree. Certainly, Trey was a much better finisher at the rim. Not close there. And his usage was higher, though I have some quibbles with the vitality of that stat since it is a team game.
Advanced stats may prefer Trey by a significant margin. I think Burke's frosh year was remarkable. But when you juxtapose Dug's BT and Trey's BT numbers in frosh seasons they are not in different universes.
Plus, there is a good chance we get 4 years of Dug. I certainly hope so.
Regarding usage, it is a team game. But look at the post Matt D put up this week. The offense features a lot of 2-man game with three guys standing beyond the line, tucked in the corner. Kobe and HD are driving the bus. Dug is contributing, but he's not tasked with running the offense as much as Trey was. (I think. That was a long time ago.)
and looking at the specifics: 2011 trey/michigan had hardaway, novak, morgan, horford, vogrich and smotrycz.
dug has...jett (sometimes), twill (average to bad), bufkin (finally coming on), hunter (regressing but valuable) and finally reed and baker have shown up here this past couple of weeks.
point being, it's a lot easier to shine when there are a lot of weapons around and more experience to boot. i'd take trey, too, but dug has done a fine job with the cards he's been dealt.
I appreciate the info on the 2011 team. Aside from the PGs, perhaps this team looks better? Bufkin and Dickinson are certainly comparable to Hardaway and Morgan. The others from 2011 don't look all that good in retrospect (though they were all good in my book at the time!)
Novak, Horford, Vogrich, Smotrycz v Jett, Tarris, Baker, and Williams.
As Seth says, we don't really play a passing offense capable of exploiting a second outside corner until November. The best passing attack in the first 3/4ths of the schedule is?...Minnesota? We don't know what Matt Rhule's offense will look like in year 1 and MSU's passing offense is chuck it up to tall dudes, which Walker should be able to hold his own immediately.
If Michigan goes 1-1, there is a scenario where we are a top 4 seed and get two byes. If I'm using Torvik correctly, we would still need to win that game to get into the tournament. All this to say that if we are a lower seed and go 1-1 in the tournament, that is better than going 0-1 in the tournament with a higher seed. I like needing a win against the 9 or 10 seed rather than the 5 etc. Seems like byes are not our friend unless we plan to win it all. Which I like even more.
Teamcast for Michigan - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank (barttorvik.com)
I think the general consensus is UM needs 2 wins to make the tourney and so in a sense they're "punished" if they go 1-2 if that second loss is in the BTT. But at the same time practically speaking you'd be facing a team that has either played 1 or 2 more games in 2 days and thus might be more tired/prone to a loss versus playing an opening-round game against a fresher opponent. So it's a bit of a mixed bag either way.
I do agree that just winning the tournament is the preferred outcome.
UMhoops/Dylan posted a site that let you put the teams in, predict their reg season outcomes, and it would spit out the seeds. how we go 1-1 matters a lot. beat Illinois, we could still end up the 6th seed. beat Indiana, we could end up the 3rd. but of course, win both and we are the no. 2, without worrying about tie breakers. lets make it easy! (nothing has been easy this year)
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