THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: By the time Michigan plays Notre Dame again the people who write for this site will be in our 40s and 50s, our kids will be starting college. Where will you be? Have you thought about your financial situation at that point? Okay then look: you've got time, but you might want to use this time between football rivalries before hoops starts to sit down with Nick Hopwood from Peak Wealth Management and figure some of that out.

…

Okay, despite another reminder you didn't just do that did you? You're going to put it off again, and tell yourself later on that you were too busy. Tell you what: follow him on Twitter now, and one of these days when he comments on a WSJ article about the tax loophole you should be in on you'll be like "okay yeah, I'm getting this done."

Legal disclosure in tiny font: calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

--------------------------------------------

Nick's question:

So... Big Ten basketball, folks? Should be some yeah?

The Responses:

Seth: Is there basketball after basketball dad?

Brian: I think we're in a sitcom situation where two divorcees with a zillion kids get married, basketball dad 2.0.

Ace: This is actually my The Story, please stop with the spoilers.

Brian: Last year's format was a bunch of questions laid out in order and let's keep doing it. The first Q is very boring this year. Who wins the league?

1. Michigan State

Ace: Yeah, it’s Michigan State.

Alex: Michigan State.

Tillman's back is back. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Ace: Cassius Winston is a defensive stopper badge short of being the ideal college point guard, Xavier Tillman unlocked a lot for them, and they’ve got a lot of talented dudes filling in for the departures.

Alex: Winston is the reason they're the consensus #1 but I think their depth could be kind of bad this year. Tillman's fantastic and should be excellent in a bigger role, but the rest of their minutes at the four and five are big question marks.

Alex: Aaron Henry could emerge as a really good player but the two and the three are a little unsettled too with Langford out.

Ace: I’m expecting Rocket Watts to be pretty good from the jump.

Alex: But still: returning First-Team AA PG, Hall of Fame coach... they're an obvious Final Four contender. Watts will be interesting with Izzo... not sure how those styles will mesh. He's really talented though.

Seth: Ohio State football except more expected.

Brian: Right, boring, moving on. Favorite Icelander in the league.

Ace: According to wikipedia: Þórir Guðmundur Þorbjarnarson. Aka Thorir Thorbjarnarson, aka the only returning player on the entire Nebraska roster.

Brian: Good luck, Nebraska!

Alex: This pretty much sums it up:

Poor Þórir.

Ace: You can tell they hired Fred Hoiberg.

Brian: Who else makes the tourney, in approximate order of your confidence in such?

Ace:

1. Maryland
2. Ohio State
3. Purdue
4. Michigan
5. Illinois
6. Wisconsin

I may have gone into some detail on this.

[After THE JUMP: As shall we, on these six]

--------------------------------------------

Alex: I think Maryland and Ohio State are pretty much locks.

Brian: Maryland, Michigan, OSU, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa.

Alex: Behind them: Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin.

Ace: Brian’s love affair with Iowa basketball continues unabated. I’d have them in there if not for the Jordan Bohannon situation but, uh, that’s an enormous hole.

Alex: Joe Wieskamp is gonna have a big year.

Ace: Also: they do not defense.

Brian: They scraped in last year, Wieskamp, got another McCaffrey, think they're barely bubble-in.

Alex: Once you get to the Wisconsin / Iowa / Penn State / Indiana Maybe tier things start getting a little grim.

Brian: Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Ace: They also lost Tyler Cook and Isaiah Moss. I’d lean closer to the league getting six bids than eight.

Brian: Cook was a 95 ORTG player in league play, Moss 99. You have to consider that the Pac-12 is going to be an utter wasteland again.

Ace: ORtg is not everything.

2. Ohio State

It may be our faith in Chris Holtmann (and his recruiting) more than their returning players. [MG]

Brian: But I want to go back to something Alex said: Ohio State is a lock? They were 8-12 in the league last year.

Ace: They dealt with injuries last year and they were pretty young. Guessing they’ll have a significant upgrade at point guard going to DJ Carton from CJ Jackson and pretty much everyone else is back. Holtmann is a good coach, too.

Seth: I guess it comes down to how much you like Wesson.

Alex: They also have CJ Walker, which is confusing, coming in at point guard. Wesson is probably one of the three to five most important players in the league.

Ace: Kaleb Wesson is better than Brian is going to say he is. Because offense matters more than defense. Also he’s a legit scoring/passing post with three-point range.

Seth: He is better than most Michigan fans are going to believe because all we remember is when he lost his shit and his mom made up something about getting spat on to concoct a narrative for her sons' misbehaviors that hatin'-ass Buckeyes might buy.

Brian: Wesson is a no-switch 5 with a 2.9 block rate who shot 53% from 2 and attempted about 2 3PAs a game last year. He's fine, but I don't get when people pump him up as a big star.

Ace: Because when you have to carry your offense, you have to sacrifice a certain level of efficiency?

Alex: I mean, a 270 lb center doesn't fit the ideal of where basketball is going but he was efficient (107 ORtg in B1G play) on high usage (#7 in the league) as the only decent scoring option on his team last year. They were solid defensively, especially with him out there.

Ace: He was inconsistent last year but I totally get why he’s preseason all-conference. Centers tend to break out in stages and he might have another level.

Alex: And the supporting cast should be better. Carton and Liddell are talented enough to start right away. Walker would be an upgrade at PG and a more experienced option. Muhammad and Washington should see freshman-to-sophomore bumps.

Ace: I’m closer to putting OSU second than I am to dropping them down.

Alex: During Wesson's suspension late last year, they lost by 18 to Northwestern.

Seth: Second as in above Maryland?

Ace: Yes.

Brian: The CJ Walker M saw in the tourney is a replacement level B10 PG.

Alex: That was Northwestern's only win after January

Ace: Last year’s OSU would’ve killed for a replacement-level Big Ten point guard.

Brian: At FSU he had a TO rate higher than his assist rate. He's not good. Carton is their upgrade hope.

Ace: Players get better, I feel like this is a consistent theme when we try to predict basketball. But I agree Carton is more likely the dude.

Alex: CJ Walker started all season at PG for an Elite Eight team.

Ace: As a sophomore.

Alex: I feel like that counts for something.

Ace: He’s better than CJ Jackson.

Brian: Jackson was not good but statistically he was about Walker plus 4 usage points and 7 points of assist rate. I know players get better but point guards going into year three who get run off and see their old team's offensive efficiency improve are not guys I'm banking on to be meaningfully better than a mediocre B10 PG, which Jackson was.

Citing Walker as the reason FSU was an E8 team is bad: he was both their least efficient and lowest-usage starter.

Alex: I didn't say he was the reason they were an elite eight team lol

Ace: That’s not what Alex was saying.

Brian: the worst starter on a team that went 9-9 in the ACC is not going to turn OSU around.

Ace: Context and defense matter. Jackson as a senior helped submarine a team that was worse than the one Walker started on as a sophomore. Players get better during redshirt years, too. Michigan fans should know this!

Alex: He might not even start at OSU.

Ace: They’ll be good.

Alex: A big reason why I think they're a lock is Holtmann. He's a really good coach. Maryland is a more talented team though. They're definitely getting more national hype.

3. Maryland

I think I know which guard I'd take in a hypothetical Hoopsageddon. [Paul Sherman]

Seth: Are we finally disabused of the Turgeon is a bad coach thing?

Ace: He has his flaws but he’s solid overall. Some guys are better at bringing in talent. He’s not a wizard tactician but his teams are usually quite good anyway.

Brian: I think he did a good job last year but I'm not exactly banging the table for him.

Seth: We used to talk about him like he's Big Ten Hugh Freeze.

I may just be speaking for myself.

Ace: They’ve been top five in the conference in four of the last five years.

Seth: They've also been top two in the conference in talent in that time.

Alex: Yeah ever since they joined the Big Ten, they've been pretty solid.

Ace: Ehhhhhhhh.

Brian: You're speaking for Ira at WTKA, certainly. I can get the frustration: Maryland hasn't ever ended up in the Kenpom top 20 under him and has had 1 S16 in nine years. He's in the Lloyd Zone: too good to fire, not as good as you want him to be.

Ace: They’re a solid program as long as you’re not a Maryland fan still waiting for Juan Dixon to lead them to another title.

Alex: They consistently do less with more but "less" is still easily in the top third of the conference since he was hired.

Brian: About 100% of Maryland fans think their program should be, long term, the top end of Gary Williams's tenure.

Ace: Which was a historical outlier for the program.

Brian: Yes.

Ace: Though I do get wanting to be better given the talent in the DMC area.

Alex: This could be the best team he's had since he's been there: senior four-year starting point guard, very talented sophomore class. Backup bigs could be an issue.

Brian: They do have a top 100 freshman C coming in. And Ricky Lindo! Jalen Smith is also the kind of big who can probably log major minutes without tiring; he's bigger now but still not exactly big and 3 fouls per 40 as a true freshman is great.

Alex: They could have the best wings in the conference with Ayala / Morsell / Wiggins too. They've shown up in a lot of preseason Top 10 lists, and Turgeon is probably the reason why they're not a legit Final Four team to me.

Brian: Maryland's defense is almost pathologically risk-averse—they were 352nd in TO rate on D--so he should stay on the floor.

Seth: Smith and Wiggins were supposed to be one-and-dones when they came in. Now we're projecting them to get better because it's been an offseason, but like Alex said, they never progress there as much as you think they should.

Alex: Maryland is Maryland: talented, lower ceiling than you'd think. And they did lose their best player.

Ace: I think that loss would hurt more if it didn’t open up the floor for their wings and Smith. Fernando/Smith was an awkward fit.

Alex: One of the Mitchell twins needs to be able to play.

Brian: They need Cowan to be better. He regressed as a junior; after his sophomore year we thought he was basically Carsen Edwards and then everything got worse.

Ace: Wait who’s we?

Alex: Melo Trimble is a sadly apt comparison in that regard.

Ace: On point.

Brian: You don't remember the game he had against X?

Alex: But Cowan is still a good college player when he's not being hounded by that guy.

Ace: Basically Carsen Edwards is a strong statement, I guess.

Seth: Now now Brian, it's not fair judging any college PG against X unless it's Cassius Winston.

Brian: You guys misunderstand. I mean the 24 points on 17 shot equivalents in the Stoneface MAAR game. All of which were seemingly off the dribble jacks. I thought he could be that guy over the long term, seems like no.

Alex: I would put him behind Winston, X, and Ayo at least.

4. Purdue

Players improve; hair rarely does. [MG]

Ace: Anyway, we need to figure out what to do with Purdue, the team the computers love and humans merely like.

Brian: This seems un-good.

Scrimmage: Providence 60, Purdue 53

Alpha Diallo - 22 & 12 reb
Emmitt Holt - 10 pts
____

Purdue - no one in double figures

Trevion Williams - 9 pts, 12 reb
Sasha Stefanovic - 9 pts
Aaron Wheeler - 8 pmts, 5 reb, 4 steals

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) October 27, 2019

Alex: Painter's gonna have his work cut out for him but I think he can maximize this roster if they find a few shooters / scorers.

They're going to look a lot different without Edwards and Cline. Back to the 99th percentile of post-up possessions they go.

Ace: This might be his toughest coaching job in a while. They don’t have much shooting outside of Stefanovic and Wheeler unless one of the bigs extends their range. Spacing could get very funky.

Brian: I dunno how their offense survives losing Edwards while playing Eastern 30 MPG, and I don't see an alternative.

Alex: If Proctor isn't good, their guard situation is gonna be rough.

Brian: Low major transfers have a bad track record.

Ace: And he transferred from High Point, so that’s a leap.

Alex: And productive low-major transfers d-- yep.

Ace: We planned that.

Alex: I'm glad we're in agreement.

Brian: Your best case there is a Duncan Robinson or a Ryan Taylor because shooting is shooting.

Alex: Williams - Haarms is a nice foundation but neither are go-to scorers and they're going to need to find one. That's asking a lot of Wheeler.

Seth: Haarms was so awful from three last year but Painter's been insistent that he can make them.

Ace: Their defense should be somewhere between good and excellent, though. Eastern is great on that end and they’ve got plenty of size. The guys they lost weren’t very good defenders.

Brian: I wouldn't bet against Painter conjuring up another back to the basket monster, and Haarms had flashes last year.

So did Williams, though he cannot approach Haarms as a defender.

Ace: They can just go big with Eastern at the point and try to overwhelm teams on the glass. He’s one of the better rebounding wing-sized guys I’ve watched.

Alex: They made 365 threes last year -- returning players only made 84. Gonna be a lot of shots for Sasha. Eastern is kind of like X insofar that there are very obvious limitations to his game but he's a positive player regardless.

Brian: Jae'Sean Tate at PG: this is gonna be weird.

Seth: I have to insert that Sasha was 5/16 from two last year because that broke my chart.

Alex: Purdue was top 5 in AdjO each of the last two years and that's gonna fall... a lot.

Ace: It’s hard to account for how much Edwards bent defenses.

Alex: Computers project inertia but I don't think this will be an offense that's even in the top half of the conference. Unless Proctor is way better than we think.

Ace: They’re in a similar place as Ohio State to me: I have serious questions but the coach makes me feel a lot better about them.

Brian: Yeah there's a lot of program assumptions the computers make that I don't think apply here even if they try to account for losing a 37% usage guy.

Ace: I think the Buckeyes fit together better and in a more modern-friendly way but Painter just finds a way.

Seth: A 37% usage guy who was unreal in the tournament.

Alex: Painter has also had experience building a team around post-ups.

Ace: Yeah, back to Haas/Swanigan-ball.

Alex: I think Williams could be a huge surprise if he's in shape and if there's enough spacing. Insanely productive in few minutes; way bigger role available. Looked like he had a great feel for the game as a freshman too.

Brian: But trying to score on Haarms+Eastern will not be pleasant. They're sort of like Michigan except Michigan has Livers, a third established ++ defender and excellent shooter.

5. Michigan

Upcourt faster, still not sure who's going to shoot it. [MG]

Ace: Speaking of which, Michigan comes in next for me, and in the same tier. Very similar questions, too. Mostly: who scores the basketball?

Seth: Michigan might have to come on late since the two guys we hoped would draw into the lineup start injured.

Alex: I think Michigan's maybe the biggest wild card in the conference.

Brian: Johns will be ready for the opener.

Alex: X - Teske - Livers keeps the floor relatively high but there are just so many unknowns otherwise.

Ace: Johns is minor. The Wagner injury really screws with a lot in terms of gelling before conference play, depending on how quickly he returns. The timing of that sucked.

Alex: I think at the very least it should be a top ten defense. Could be ugly at times but I think it's a tournament team, especially if Wagner comes back and is the guy we expected.

Ace: Yeah, they were going to be a much better team at the end of the season than the beginning of the season even before Wagner’s injury.

Seth: Plenty of reasons I'm mentally preparing for this to start rocky.

Ace: I’d have Michigan above Purdue if not for the coaching changeover, but… that’s a big deal and a complete mystery.

Seth: And he's a first-timer, whoever's around him. With nobody he recruited.

Brian: Yeah. Can Livers get to serious usage? Can Teske? Is there a left-handed hook? What does Michigan get out of Castelton/Johns/DDJ/Nunez?

Ace: This has the feeling of a transition year but the program has been lifted to a place where they’ll probably make the tournament in a transition year.

Alex: To answer your question, Ace -- I have no idea who's going to score. Livers is the obvious frontrunner to be the team's leading scorer but I think there are a couple more options there. It wasn't one of Beilein's best offenses last year and the top three scorers are gone. The X - Teske ball screen game can still manufacture points but... with the new staff and so many inexperienced players, who knows. The offense might be bad.

Ace: I was fully expecting Wagner to lead the team in scoring so I’m a bit nervous.

Brian: The other way to look at the top scorers being gone is that they weren't especially efficient top scorers.

Ace: I’d feel a great deal better about that if Eli Brooks weren’t in line for major minutes.

Brian: 111/98/108 ORTGs are less of a bear to replace.

Alex: There's a reason why they had to take a lot of shots though.

Ace: Also if the now-sophomores had hit, like, more than 10% of their garbage time threes, which I realize is irrational.

Alex: X - Teske - Eli were decidedly defense-oriented players.

Ace: Yeah, Matthews and Iggy had to take on a lot of tough offense. Who threatens off the dribble this year? Livers hasn’t shown that as part of his game. That’s where I really worry the offense bogs down.

Brian: They need a late clock guy and there's nobody who seems like a good or even decent option.

Seth: Have we tried calling DDJ white-collar?

These go in in theory [MG]

Brian: I'd say X but he was at 38% eFG on late clock shots last year and half of his attempts were threes.

Ace: It’s gonna be Livers, which I don’t think has a very high ceiling, or Franz, or [insert breakout sophomore here]. Colin Castleton at the four keeps feeling less and less crazy but for the lack of center depth that’d probably create.

Brian: You can get 10 MPG from him there, and Michigan will probably have to.

Alex: Especially if Johns still looks like a project.

Ace: If your offense is going to be limited, might as well go Monstars and make going to the paint very unpalatable.

Plus it sounds like Howard wants to turn up the tempo and play a little more Kentucky/UNC style bully-ball.

Alex: Michigan will lean on its defense and probably play much more up-tempo, crash the glass more, have a less rigid offense, etc. etc. So it could look a lot different but maybe be more effective in some ways.

Right.

Ace: If there was ever a year to switch to that after any Beilein season, this was the year. The defense should be somewhere between very good and great, which provides a nice floor, and from there I think you’re playing for NCAA seeding unless the Wagner injury completely tanks the offense in a way that lingers.

Alex: Shooting also looks like a pretty obvious problem.

Ace: The problem, some might say.

Alex: Livers can be expected to be a good three-point shooter on decent volume, Franz would be -- but the wrist injury makes me leery -- and... uh...

Ace: DDJ had a great secret scrimmage!

…yeah, I too am concerned.

Brian: It's never going to be a strength for a team that plays Simpson but once Wagner is back having Wagner/Livers/someone is probably all right. Castleton was a 38% shooter in high school and DDJ was cold-blooded, I'm not reading anything into FR garbage time.

Seth: We could probably spend all day on our Michigan preview takes which come down to Save us Franz/Someone while the vets play defense. Who's next?

Brian: Illinois?

6. Illinois

Our cameras couldn't catch Ayo so here's the beard. [Barron]

Ace: The Fightin’ Ayo Dosunmus. They bring back most everyone, including two good lead guards, and if Brad Underwood’s system is gonna take this better be the year.

Brian: There is a weird level of expectation for a team that didn't even make the NIT last year, but I am apparently on the bandwagon.

Ace: It helps that the middle of the league pack drifted back in their direction.

Alex: They look great on paper.

Brian: Having your two highest usage guys go from FR to SO is always nice even if Giorgi B is 37 years old and will always be the same player.

Seth: I always end up overrating Underwood teams because I like watching them.

Alex: Ayo could be in the NBA right now. Giorgi / Frazier / Cockburn should be a great combination of role players.

But yet...

If he's gonna have his 7', 290 lb freshman center giving up three fouls a game chasing ball-handlers thirty feet from the basket, I'm not sold on them. That aggressive scheme hasn't worked in the Big Ten and maybe Cockburn forces them to be more pragmatic but if Underwood insists on the Turnovers, But Horrible 2P% Defense And Fouling that we've seen.

I don't know.

That said I do think they make it in.

Ace: Yeah, Bezhanishvili can get better simply by being put in better positions and improving his rebounding, which you can do even when ground-bound. I also like Kipper Nichols as a glue-guy at the four—when I watch him he seems to make a bigger impact than the box score would indicate.

You’re damn right I learned how to spell his last name and I’m going to show it off.

Alex: I'm high on Ayo and think he'll be a legit top ten player in the conference. That first step is next-level.

Brian: Ayo needs to be more effective in the half-court--whole team does, really. The only guy they had who had a decent half-court eFG was Giorgi.

Ace: I’m expecting that to come. His finishing in transition is impressive and that should translate, plus his jumper looks okay. I have Wisconsin next in my rankings.

7. Wisconsin

Dad Bravison amirite [MG]

Ace: While they were a lot better than the Illini last year, they have to figure out life without Ethan Happ for the first time since Greg Gard took over.

Brian: and that looks ugly unless they find someone who can take the ball to the basket.

Brian: Trice: 10% of shots at rim, 34% on them. Davison: 28% of shots at rim, 44% on them. It feels like their best shot at a driver is Kobe King, and while I like him fine he had a 5% assist rate last year. Maybe that blows up post-Happ. I kind of doubt it.

Ace: I have serious doubts. They didn’t have anyone like that last year, didn’t bring in anyone who’s gonna make a big splash, and I don’t think Davison becomes a totally different player if his shoulder stays in place all year. I also really wonder how they’re going to even run their offense. Everything ran through Happ in the post—he had the usage of a high-volume point guard. I like Reuvers but he’s unless he’s got some skills he hasn’t shown he’s not at all that type of player.

Brian: Well, pre-Happ Wisconsin thrived on inverting basketball by posting giant guards and having their 5s shoot threes. Reuvers can do the latter, but Trice and Davison aren't posting anyone.

Alex: They'll still run the same stuff they've always ran but yeah I'm down on that roster and Happ is just a really huge loss in so many ways.

Brian: Losing Khalil Iverson is going to be bad for their D as well.

Alex: I'm imagining Tyler Herro averaging 12 ppg on this team and laughing.

Brian: They were already bad on O last year with Happ (62nd) and kept their head above water with helpside D from Reuvers and Iverson being a lockdown wing guy. If their D slips from 4th to... 20th they're in trouble.

Ace: I’m of the mind that Gard was riding the wake of Bo Ryan and Happ helped that a lot and now things might go sideways. He hasn’t seemed great when having to go to Plan B in games and his Plan A for everything is gone.

Brian: It's pretty hard to see their other guys step up. Ford and Pritzl are just shooters. Trevor Anderson is a UW-Green Bay transfer. Tai Strickland transferred to Temple.

Alex: Dad Bravison running into a wall for 40 minutes a game ASMR.

Brian: They get Micah Potter eligible after a redshirt but he's going to be a backup 5 with limited utility in terms of making shots.

Ace: They’re really trying hard to get him eligible immediately—he has to sit until December because he transferred mid-year—which is understandable but also doesn’t sound great.

Alex: I'll be interested in seeing how good Reuvers is in the post -- maybe it was just because Happ could handle all those possessions that we haven't seen it, but if he's just a shooter, their system could change a lot. At least in terms of where the scoring is coming from.

Brian: Historically that's been fine for Wisconsin bigs. He had about 0.5 unassisted buckets at the rim per game last year, so... yeah.

Seth: Certain things work at the Trohl Center that have never worked anywhere else, at least in this galaxy. So next, are we in Annually Overhyped About Iowa stage now?

Ace: [looks at Brian]

…to be continued.