Sponsor Note: TicketIQ has been our longest and best ticket partner—there seriously cannot be four people in the world who know the online secondary market better than Jesse Lawrence, and his Seth of the spreadsheets Greg Cohen. If you’re going to be looking on an online site, try the one that’s trying to support us instead of fleece you. TicketIQ’s whole thing is they’re on your side.

You can do your own comparison of their prices for the same ticket on Stubhub. It’s *significant*. Also because you guys use our links to them when you buy tickets, they keep sponsoring me to write these, and don’t ask what I’m going to write.

---------------------

Incredibly, gloriously, expensively, Michigan has finally made the college football playoffs, punching their ticket by beating Ohio State 42-27 and then won the Big Ten Championship. Not enough people talk about how Michigan beat Ohio State 42-27. I know numbers pretty well and that’s like a 15-point difference, Michigan’s 42 points minus 27 points scored by Ohio State equaling 15.

Acting Like We Haven’t Been There Before, Part II.

Michigan fans (clearly) are not used to this, and the prices of their semifinals matchup with Georgia are reflecting that. Recent Final Four trips for Michigan are still local legends about Wolverine attendance; this is like a Final Four run times eleven. It helps that winter has arrived up north; Michiganders get to Florida in high numbers around this time of year already, some were already planning to be in Orlando for the basketball game on December 30, and the rest of us are watching the sun go down from our office windows and need little more than that to open a new tab and pull up Kayak. My buddy who works for Delta (hubs in Detroit/Atlanta) said miles are moving so fast he’s thinking of hiring Matt Damon to sell them as crypo.

(Aside: don’t buy crypto.)

[After THE JUMP: Charts]

The difference in interest in this game versus the other is ENORMOUS. You can get into the Cotton Bowl right now for $145. That’s bad news for our hopes of the price coming down. The good news however is that we’re also way, way beyond the record for what a semifinals game has ever cost. In fact we’re currently sitting $222 over “Notre Dame goes to the Rose Bowl” prices. The history (via TicketIQ):

Year	Matchup	Cheapest	Venue
2021	Michigan vs Georgia	$625	Orange
2020	Alabama vs Notre Dame	$403	Rose
2017	Georgia vs Oklahoma	$306	Rose
2020	Clemson vs Ohio State	$261	Sugar
2016	Alabama vs Washington	$191	Peach
2014	Oregon vs Florida State	$157	Rose
2021	Alabama vs Cincinnati	$145	Cotton
2019	LSU vs Oklahoma	$144	Peach
2014	Alabama vs Ohio State	$132	Sugar
2018	Clemson vs Notre Dame	$131	Cotton
2017	Clemson vs Alabama	$108	Sugar
2019	Ohio State vs Clemson	$79	Fiesta
2015	Alabama vs Michigan State	$79	Cotton
2018	Alabama vs Oklahoma	$75	Orange
2016	Clemson vs Ohio State	$61	Fiesta
2015	Clemson vs Oklahoma	$32	Orange

.

Curse of the Curs

The bad news: Georgia is invited too. UGA too has quite a football-rabid fanbase, one that has yet to see their Bulldogs defeat any team better than Kentucky this season. They also live much nearer; the distance from Atlanta to Miami is similar to that of Detroit to New York City, which means UGA locals are on that border between flying and a very long drive, but also that many UGA graduates live in southern Florida. They are also primed to expect a championship, having soaked in four years of scouting on their elite recruiting, laid waste to most of their weak schedule, and sacrificed an SEC title so their Bama daddies could get a Heisman and a playoff berth. They’ve also been swimming in a sea of their own hype, plus years of Harbaugh negativity initiated because he had the gall to dangle Michigan degrees in front of local recruits. In course, Georgia fans are generally convinced they’re going to win in a blowout, and that sounds like a hella fun New Year’s.

Georgia’s fanbase shouldn’t be a problem for the Michigan team—the numbers should be close enough, if leaning UGA, that it won’t be a road atmosphere. But their confidence is a problem for us fans, because we’re all fighting for a heavily rationed ticket supply. The result according to TicketIQ’s Greg Cohen:

Prices have dropped 30% since they peaked on Sunday afternoon following the final CFP Standings announcement. There are also significantly more tickets available on the Michigan side of the stadium, and for the most part, prices on that side are about 10%-20% cheaper than comparable locations on the Georgia side.

The number is “Erp.” But this graph also shows after the initial “GOTTA BUY” slam after Michigan secured its spot, the market slowly came down until the first wave of seats that fans bought from their schools to resell were run through. When it rose again, the brokers released their first wave. It’s going to be like that.

Where are all the tickets?

Those of you who’ve tried to secure seats before booking a flight have seen the problem already. Inventory is very light, and interest is peaked. And yet I would bet not even half of the seats that will be sold have been yet.

Why? Ticket brokers.

As with the Big Ten CG, school allotments were pitifully small: the agreements in place are for maximizing prices, not rewarding fans. If you were in a position to get tickets from Michigan, you probably got as many as you’re allowed. Those seats appeared on the secondary ticket market earlier this week, and represent a sizeable proportion of what’s moving because individuals are setting those prices just under what the tickets around them are going for.

The rest of the tickets are in the hands of brokers who invested in them as soon as they could. These are being rationed but you can tell they’re out there because they’re in globs of 10 to 14 together. See if you can spot the swathes where the most recent broker dumps happened on this map of 9+ seats together:

I too noticed there’s a big difference in the types of seats available on one side or the other, and that this correlates with the stereotype of the super-rich Michigan fans versus the super-numerous Georgia fans. I don’t really buy it; I think it’s a matter of where the different brokers bought their seats—it’s too perfect to be a manifestation of fan culture differences. I would believe Michigan fans are slower to hit “buy” because we think we can outsmart the market. I don’t believe that explains the map above.

What I do believe is either fanbase could fill this lifeless grotesque of the iconic venues they play in thrice over, and that this means a big payoff for the brokers who invest in this sort of thing every year. A Michigan-Georgia matchup is the kind of thing they’ve been waiting for. They know the seats will get purchased, and know that fans want to get that done as soon as possible so they don’t have to worry about it. They have been planning for this day, while you were thrust into it within a week.

This is the market you’re going to be living in most of the month. If you don’t want to pay these prices, you need some steel in your belly.

Why risk buying late?

The trick to playing a seller’s market is to remember tickets are commodities, not stocks. The brokers can weather not selling a few if they’re selling the rest at a triple mark-up, but they are all playing the same game, and can’t collude with nor get enough of each other on board with keeping a slow drip going all the way. Your need is you have to get into this game, especially since as the date approaches Miami you are approaching as well. Their need is to sell their inventory before its value drops to zero. As that sell-by date gets closer, it’s you and other late buyers in a game of chicken with brokers fearing other brokers are going to jump ahead of them.

The difference is most of your side of the market can’t stand to play that way. The amateurism of your fellow fans becomes an asset the longer you wait. Some of us are going to say “screw it” and buy. Others of us are going to miss the window to secure travel and accommodations, gulp at the prices of that much more straightforwardly snooze-you-lose market, and drop out of the ticket market altogether. Even renting a car is surge-priced right now. The half-serious are not going to make it.

Also there’s a bit of a market left for people who bough four seats and are going to end up using two. You might even check around your friends or parents’ friends who are longtime season ticket holders. Hey, are you going? What are your plans? I’d like to go; I’m still looking for tickets. Lots of people afforded the opportunity bought more than they needed for face, and they have not come close to exhausting their list of people who might want them yet.

Why buy now?

For one, I would like you to attend. If you buy you’re committed, and there’s nobody Michigan should rather have in Miami more than the type of obsessive who reads this site.

For another, you’re going to be talking about marginal differences. Say the prices drop to $350—which is what last year’s (pandemic-suppressed) semifinals tickets were going for a few days before it. That’s a significant chunk of change. But are you going to wait that long, follow prices that long, worry that long? At what point is $100/ticket worth it to you to not jump? $50/ticket? You need to gauge how smart about your ticket price you want to be versus how much of your life you want to put into that. For me, $100 is a pretty big deal; I know our site demographics enough to know that’s not true for most of you. You shouldn’t feel ashamed to spend your own money to save your own time and peace of mind. That’s the service the brokers are providing.

If you’re going in a group of more than two, that’s also a big consideration. The brokers are going to keep putting big groups into the market through December, but they’ll make sure those prices remain high. Later on there will be 1s and 2s that pop up for lower prices. If you’re going solo, you should wait until the day of the game; not only will ones pop up, but you’ll meet people in town and some might want to sell to you directly instead of losing a substantial portion of its value to the online exchanges.

What’s your best guess?

I think prices will come down to about $450 within 24 hours of the game, and then there will be pocked opportunities for $350 online or $300 on the ground if you’re buying directly from people who didn’t end up selling their extra seats.

When do I think about championship tickets?

If you see a pair while browsing pick them off, but that market is going to be like the BTC’s on perfectly safe and legal vitamin supplements from George Perles. Once again, most of the inventory is locked up in the brokers.