[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Three Up, Three Down: Hoops Edition Comment Count

Matt EM February 11th, 2022 at 1:46 PM

On the heels of the strongest performance of the season in a victory over a top-5 Purdue team, Michigan is now number 26 to Kenpom and 30th per the NET ranking

Although the Penn State game can was a speedbump, the Wolverines have won 6 of their last 8 games, while having more consistent ups than downs for the first time all year. 

 

THREE UP

Defense, defense, defense. Michigan held the number one offense in the country to .94ppp on 44% from the field. Was some of that due to three-point luck? Yes, but Purdue also hit the jackpot with a few Trevion Williams jumphooks that hit back-heel before bouncing in. 

The possession above is undoubtedly one of Michigan's better defensive possessions of the year. Diabate and Houstan execute a perfect switch and Moussa top-locks Sasha to blow-up the first option. Purdue then runs a Williams/Hunter DHO as Jones gets lost initially so Dickinson has to rotate to deter an open lay-up. But look at DeVante re-engage to bump Eric Hunter before tagging Williams and forcing a deflection. That is a level of connectivity we haven't seen from this team. 

The individual defense was notable too. Two days after getting roasted repeatedly by Sam Sessoms of Penn State, freshman Kobe Bufkin was up to the challenge of defending a top-5 NBA pick in Jaden Ivey. In the clip below, he beats Ivey to the spot not once, but twice. That allows Moussa to rotate over and get a deflection.

 

Not to be outdone, DeVante Jones had his moments as well. On an island against Ivey, Jones bumps him off his driving spot near the FT line, which gives Dickinson the time to rotate over for a blocked shot. The Wolverines are then playing 5 vs 4 on offense, which leads to a triple for Eli.

Raise your hand if you had Kobe Bufkin and DeVante Jones getting stops on an island against a college version of Ja Morant. Effort and intensity mean a lot at the college level and Michigan had a level of connectivity that hasn't been there until last night. 

 

Class with Professor Howard. Seriously, Juwan Howard ran circles around a HOF level coach in Matt Painter. Early in the first half, Howard was going with Chest action with the addition of another ballscreen for Jones that lead to open looks as seen below.

Michigan had three viable options on each of the possessions clipped above. Diabate as the roll man against Gillis with the soft show in the first possession with the corner shooters lifting to negate help/stunts from Purdue guards. On the second possession Gillis makes the adjustment and sticks with Moussa, but now Trevion has to show which leaves Dickinson open on the roll + Houstan open on the wing. Pick your poison, Painter. 

 

Coach Howard has been going to Ghost screens (basically a fake screen) with more frequency of late to punish non-drop coverages against ballscreen action.

Johns dives at the same time Diabate sets a ghost screen to negate any help from a Purdue big on the roll by Moussa. The result is getting the ball to a great athlete on the move for an easy finish with only an undersized Purdue guard in the way. Bucket. 

 

By the time the late first half rolled around, the leading man for Michigan was toying with Painter. Dickinson and Houstan clear out as Diabate sets a ballscreen for Jones. Gillis blitzes the ballscreen as Trevion tags Moussa. What you see next is pure genius. Hunter sets a weakside flare screen for Caleb and Purdue clearly thinks this set is designed to get Houstan an open three..............only Dickinson pops up for an open catch + shoot triple. 

It's baffling that some folks legitimately think Juwan Howard is challenged in terms of offensive acumen. There's a large distinction between kids missing open shots and the coaching staff failing to generate open shots. Recognizing that distinction is critical to coaching evaluations. 

 

The schedule, home games in particular. Thursday marked the first game in which Michigan hosted a conference foe currently in the top-half of the B10 standings this season. In a parity-driven college basketball landscape without much high-end talent these days, the lack of home games against quality opponents has hindered the resume. 

The Wolverines have upcoming home games against Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State and Rutgers. Win three of those four games while stealing one of the remaining three road contests, and the Wolverines are probably on the right side of the bubble. 

[AFTER THE JUMP, only two down!]

TWO DOWN

 

About that. Michigan won at Penn State, but it certainly wasn't the most gracious performance. The Wolverines shot an abysmal 31.5% from the field and 5/21 from beyond the arc. Michigan came out victorious for one reason, dominating the offensive glass. Reeling-in nearly 38% of their misses allowed Michigan to keep the shot attempt war even while drawing more FT attempts.

I'd rather win ugly if the alternative is a moral victory, but those kind of offensive funks simply cannot happen down the stretch if this team is going to go on a run. 

 

The Bench, still. Wolverine subs have scored a combined 22 points...........over the last three games in over 100 minutes of non-garbage time. I touched on this last week and it's still a huge issue. When Dickinson/Diabate are the only players on the team capable of collapsing the defense, it's a huge issue when one is in foul trouble and/or not playing well. We simply need more from the bench in terms of scoring. 

 

 

 

Comments

TheCube

February 11th, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^

Great write up. Glad the blog is showing how Howard consistently designs great sets defensively and offensively for this team.

Miss me with that “I miss Beilein” and “Phil is the real coach” nonsense. 

East Quad

February 11th, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^

Matt - love your write-up. 

I can no longer silence my pet peeve, however.  It is "beyond the arc" and not "beyond the arch".  An arch is a vertical supporting structure and an arc is a segment of a circle.

jmblue

February 11th, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^

We need to get four more wins.  Who they come against doesn't really matter.  Beating OSU would be very nice and solidify our position on the good side of the bubble, but if we were to lose, it wouldn't be the end of the world.  OSU is a Quadrant 1 opponent, so playing them is basically all upside.

Right now the closest thing to an individual must-win game is Rutgers, because they're not very good and it's at home.

TrueBlue2003

February 11th, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^

Even losing to Rutgers wouldn't be the end of the world as long as we still won at least four games elsewhere.

To your point, winning four does it.  Doesn't matter which four.

The Rutgers game is the easiest remaining, so not winning it would just mean we'd have to win another more difficult game to get to four (ie 17 overall or 11 conference wins)

 

4th phase

February 11th, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^

Matt: Is there an ideal tempo for this team to play at? Right now they are one of the slowest teams in the country, down near 300. And they've actually been getting progressively slower the last 3 years. 

I know pace isn't really that important, teams can win fast or slow. Only I thought people predicted Juwan would prefer an up tempo style and was recruiting better athletes to get out and run. And when you go super slow you end getting into slogs with teams like Penn State who aren't all that skilled. Just curious what your thoughts are on style/pace for this team in particular, and Michigan going forward.

Matt EM

February 11th, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^

For this particular team, slow is really the only way to play. We have one guy in the starting group with good straight line speed + agility in Diabate. Brooks is average in that regard but undersized. The other 3 are just flat out slow if I'm being candid.

The bench isn't much better. Collins is the only guy with average speed/agility in that group.

 

CWoodIsMyBoiii

February 11th, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^

Matt - where do you think the additional bench scoring can potentially come from?  Bufkin? Johns? TWill?  All of these guys have shown flashes on the offensive end, but none have shown the ability to be a consistent 6-10 point scorer night in and night out. 

TrueBlue2003

February 11th, 2022 at 3:02 PM ^

Michigan also hosts Iowa so they either need 4 of 5 home games or 3 of 5 with a road win, at minimum.

Great write up.  Dickinson as a three point threat to open things up for dribble drives and Diabate cuts is huge.

During this 8 game stretch in which M is 6-2, they're 4th nationally in offensive efficiency per Torvik. I can't believe people think Juwan isn't a good offensive coach.

And it seems like after some massive early struggles they've figured some things out with the defense and I like the mixing of the matchup zone to ease the pick and roll defense.

Many were comparing this season a month ago to the 2015-2016 season.  I proposed that it could have also be compared to the first half of the 16-17 season when Michigan had a talented team that was underachieving (they were 14-9 and 4-6 in conference coming off a bad home loss to OSU).  That team turned it around to win the BTT and be a D Walton jumper away from the Elite Eight.

So far, this team is showing a turnaround similar to that team.  Let's keep it up for the final stretch!

michengin87

February 11th, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^

Penn State is clearly not a basketball school, but they have kicked up their defense as the season has progressed.  We obviously won very ugly there, but they are a tough out at home.  They have only lost to OSU, Purdue and UM at home.  Meanwhile, they recently beat Rutgers handily by holding them to 49 pts.  They host MSU next week and it will be interesting to see if they can hold them down as well and maybe pull off the upset.

bronxblue

February 11th, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^

Good stuff.  I never quite got the argument that Howard didn't know what he was doing offensively; as noted, guys missing open shots has been a big drag thus far.  I do think he's also figured out more coherent defensive gameplans - don't look now but they've held both PSU and Purdue to 1.00pp or less and both of those teams are above-average offenses.  They'll have to repeat that performance against OSU coming up but OSU has struggled recently on the road, losing 4 of their last 5 road games.  

TrueBlue2003

February 11th, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^

Matt, what's the update on Eli's defensive numbers on pull ups?  When you recently cited that guys were scoring like 1.5 ppp on 57 shots, I figured that had to be somewhat a small sample fluke.  Even though he's going to be below average on those against the taller guys he guards, that number screamed fluke.

And Ivey has missed a bunch of pull ups on him the past two games so wondering where that stat stands now.

Matt EM

February 11th, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^

As of today, Brooks is now giving up 1.288ppp on pull-up jumpers/3rd percentile nationally, on 66 shots.

He's also giving up 1.28ppp on isolation defense/5th percentile nationally, on 32 possessions. 

Eli is giving up 1.1ppp vs spot-up jumpers/17th percentile nationally, on 60 shots.

 

While the process has been mostly good, the results for Brooks have been bad this year. Classic case of simply being too small/physically overwhelmed when tasked with defending on an island without being surrounded by top-tier defenders on the perimeter. 

outsidethebox

February 11th, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^

I believe in employing multiple defensive schemes any way but this is high on my list of reasons that I believe Michigan must play much more zone-even predominantly so. Between being slow-footed and wrong-sized they simply cannot mitigate their weaknesses with effort. I love Juwan and this staff but that they do not address this obvious reality makes me shake my head. They have been so good at playing to the strengths of the individual players offensively...but pretty much ignore this principle defensively. Screw the negative optics that seems to be in place regarding playing zone-just play to win here too.

Gulogulo37

February 11th, 2022 at 8:16 PM ^

It seems they've been playing it more. One reason it looked so good against Penn State is just that PSU is that bad against zone. Ant Wright said on twitter they're 3rd percentile against zone. It does seem to help out the guards. And then you've got lots of length at the 4 and 5 that works well in zone.

TrueBlue2003

February 11th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^

Got it, thank you.  In a comment on your Feb 2, you said "I mean the guy is literally giving up 1.5ppp on pull-ups........against 57 jumpers per Synergy."

If 1.288 is 3rd percentile now, 1.5 must have been 1st percentile three games ago.

And if Eli went from 1.5 ppp on 57 shots to 1.288 on 66, that means he's given up...literally ZERO ppp on his last 9 pull ups defended*, most of which were against top 5 pick Jaden Ivey.  That matches my charting in the two Purdue games in which he forced opponents to go 0fer on pull ups.  This is to say there's still a ton of noise in a sample so small such that the overall number changed by 0.2 ppp in just nine shots.

To your point, Eli is short so he's going to have a hard time with guys much taller than him, and he's drawing tough assignments with all the elite wings in the league, but he's remarkably good at being there and contesting and that'll force a good amount of misses in the long run.

I would be willing to bet he'll allow under 1 ppp on pull ups from here on out, even though he'll probably be guarding Davis, Murray (maybe), Christie and all the opponents best guards / wings.

*1.5 ppp on 57 shots implies 85.5 total points and since 85/66 = exactly 1.288, I assume the initial number was 85/57 = 1.49pp. Possible that you rounded up 83/57 = 1.456 to 1.5, but that still means he'd have allowed just TWO points in the last nine pull ups defended.