Goin' Hard In The Paint [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Three Up, Three Down: Hoops Edition Comment Count

Matt EM December 9th, 2021 at 10:52 AM

A strong week for the Wolverines with a convincing win over a top-50 Kenpom team in San Diego State and total dominance in the B10 opener versus Nebraska gives off much better vibes for the trajectory of this team.

THREE UP

Hunter Dickinson, on the block. Juwan Howard went back to his bread and butter the last two games with a heavy dose of the All-American operating in the post and the results were rather impressive. The sophomore stud averaged 19 points, 13 rebounds and 3 assists per contest in the aforementioned games. 

More importantly, I wasn't a huge fan of Michigan's early season inclination to run the five-out/Delay action set because it doesn't optimize the team's most potent weapon, Hunter's gravity in the paint. Most CBB fans (and analysts for that matter) generally use the word spacing to simply convey what they really want aesthetically, three-point shooting from a big. 

Theoretical spacing isn't really the benchmark though, that would be gravity. In simple terms gravity means the opposition is so consumed with a particular skillset that extra attention is dedicated to deter it. In scouting terminology, this is known as collapsing the defense. And this is much more important to generating quality looks in relation to any hypothetical spacing. 

Watch the clips above, particularly where the video is paused on each possession. Dickinson has 4-5 defenders within 5 feet of him in an effort to deter an easy bucket. Hunter is a great passer, and when this happens he finds teammates with skip passes.

This is the key to Michigan getting great shot quality. A skip means finding a teammate two passes away rather than one. And when that happens the defense is in full scramble mode because the recovery distance is simply too far to rotate under control. Look at how great the looks are in the clip above. It doesn't get any better than that because Dickinson is functionally using his gravity to create easy shots for teammates that can't necessarily create for themselves.

For a team that doesn't really have a heavy rotational perimeter player capable of beating defenders one-on-one, Dickinson's gravity is the move. Operating on the block just makes life a lot easier for our perimeter players that are off-ball types by nature and it creates driving lanes that aren't there otherwise. More of this, please. 

 

Zeb Jackson, perimeter defender. The most intriguing takeaway from the Nebraska game for me was the defensive prowess of the sophomore. With Jones (and Collins/Brooks to a lesser extent) getting abused repeatedly by Alonzo Verge, Juwan tested Jackson on that assignment and he passed with flying colors.

The takeaway here is that Jones/Brooks/Houstan can't really contain dribble penetration against legit perimeter scorers. The reason is quite simple, those players simply lack the requisite size/length/athleticism to do so. Zeb possesses all of those assets and if he can be a consistent perimeter defender for 10-15 minutes a night it can take Michigan from an above-average defensive team to a great one (more analysis on this below).

 

Collective Wing production. This one doesn't need any film/nuance, as the numbers speak volumes. In two games against UNC and Arizona, Caleb Houstan and Terrance Williams totaled 19 points, 11 rebounds and shot 2/12 from distance...........combined.

In the matchup against Nebraska, the tandem went off for 38 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists. Did I mention the wing-duo combined to shoot 7/10 beyond the arch? It's not likely those two ever combine for that level of production during a single game again, but half/two-thirds of that production in any game probably means a Wolverine win in most instances. 

[AFTER THE JUMP, only two down this week!]

 

Perimeter defense, generally. The Wolverine defense has been much better the last 2 games, but we have tons of trouble containing pro-ish guards that can create off the dribble.  For context, Michigan is giving up 1.07ppp in isolation (5th percentile in the country) and is 23rd percentile nationally in defending the P+R ballhandler. In total, those two play-types account for 153 of Michigan's defensive possessions (22% of all possessions on defense).

As mentioned above, Zeb Jackson can mitigate this issue if his flashes of defense become a regular thing. Absent that though, I'm afraid the Washingtons, Juzangs, Jeenathans and Verges of the world are likely to give Michigan a lot of problems because our backcourt personnel isn't really equipped to stop them. 

 

DeVante Jones' scoring. The transfer guard has scored a grand total of 17 points...........over the last 5 games. Juwan Howard probably doesn't need Jones scoring more than 10-11 points a game, but the PG spot simply needs more scoring punch from a kid logging almost 24 minutes per night during that five game stint.

DeVante doesn't get much lift on his jumper, so he's never going to be a Mike Smith type with pull-ups. I think the more critical part of his scoring package is his floater game. He scored on this shot-type at an absurd clip last season and it's something that compliments his playmaking chops (which has been impressive) in ballacreen action quite well.

Comments

outsidethebox

December 9th, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^

MBB has been much more of a work in progress than I anticipated. I really thought that Jones and Brooks would be scintillatingly dynamic at the 1 and 2. And, I thought similarly about Williams, Houstan and Johns at the 3 and 4...along with Diabate in the 4/5 mix. I still expect these six along with Hunter to form the core seven. Now we need at least one of Bufkin, Collins and Jackson to step up. There are a lot of options-a lot of opportunity on this talented roster. Thankfully, we seem to be, finally, trending up. 

trueblueintexas

December 9th, 2021 at 1:01 PM ^

I think Howard is doing the right thing bringing Collins along purposefully instead of simply throwing him out there to start. I have no doubt Juwan and the other coaches have seen Jones' limitations and are trying to get Collins to be the starter as soon as possible. You also don't want to ruin the kids confidence right out of the gate. 

I believe Collins will be the starting point within the next 5 - 8 games which should help the team significantly. Jones will be a much better player when the coaches can find the right match-ups for him off the bench. 

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^

My initial response to that would be it's easy to cherry pick stats against teams such as San Diego State + Nebraska to fit a narrative.

Reality is Michigan simply wasn't very good against Arizona, UNC, Seton Hall..............which happen to be the only high-major opponents in which Diabate played. 

DaftPunk

December 9th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^

Kudos on the Zeb D pickup.  I didn't catch the SDSU game so didn't realize he was back.  When I first saw him, I thought Bufkin had drastically upped his D, but I was confusing 2 and 3.  I hope he can teach Houstan a thing or two. Kid brings energy and hands in passing lanes.

 

On Jones' inability to score, I noticed he never finishes his dribble penetration moves, or take them deep enough to collapse the D and kick out a pass to an open shooter.  They're just probes that get nowhere and kill clock. He needs to finish at the hole

Nothing Special

December 9th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^

He needs to finish at the hole

Hey man, that isn't cool to point out a man's male performance issues like that. 

On a more serious note, I just don't see Jones have the athleticism to defend many PGs in the BIG or create shots for others on offense. His shot seems to take a LONG time to get off. It was encouraging to see him take a couple of 3s off the dribble against Nebraska, but I don't think that will be a tool he uses often. That said, he did seem like the more ready PG last game over Collins. Nebraska is hot trash obviously, so idk how much can be gleaned from that game. Collins just needs to hit those FTs and that will go a long way for him. 

Props to Matt for noticing that the team was hitting Dickinson in the post initially on possessions last game. I kept telling myself that the offense seemed a lot more dynamic and less scripted than usual. You made me realize it was just getting the ball to Dickinson quickly down low and then let that action create the domino effect of improvised offense and open shots. Thanks for the write up!

 

805wolverine

December 9th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^

Good stuff.  Agree on the perimeter defense, although I will say allowing dribble penetration has been a frustration of mine for Michigan during each of the non-conference seasons of the Juwan era.  For whatever reason in the early part of the season the past few years we can't seem to keep guys in front of us, but it always seems to be corrected by the conference season, and so I suspect it will be something that improves.  Particularly pleased to see Zeb's progress in this area because even though it was in limited time last year it was disappointing to see a guy with his length and athleticism get beat off the dribble so easily.  I think it just takes these young guys a minute to adjust to the speed and skill at this level.

Also agree on Jones, he's been a disappointment.  He seems either too slow with the ball for this level or too casual...maybe its a little of both but unfortunately I think more of the former, so not sure its going to get better.  Hoping to see Collins continue to improve with more minutes and/or see more of Zeb/Kobe paired with Eli.  Bottom line is guard play wins championships in college basketball, which I think unfortunately puts a hard cap on this team's ceiling, hope the guys prove me wrong.

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^

I tend to agree about guards being the driving factor in winning at the CBB level, particularly in recent years.

That said, I think the greatest teams of all time at the college level all feature NBA level bigs. The most dominant team in the last 10 years was 2012 Kentucky..........featuring Anthony Davis. 

For me, as an NBA guy, the pecking order is always this:

6'5+ shot creating wing with a pull-up game (Kobe, Wade, Jordan, Kawhi) - these are undoubtedly the most important players in basketball 

Dominant HOF big (Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, AD, Jokic, Embiid) - almost mandatory to have one if you're serious about winning a ring

Little guys that shoot jumpers - there have only been two instances of a player under 6'4 being the best player on the team, while winning a championship in the last 30 years. Isaiah Thomas and Curry. 

UMinSF

December 9th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^

Matt, your theory is interesting, and I agree that a superstar wing is the most valuable player in NBA hoops, but...

I'm not on board with "Dominant HOF big...almost mandatory to have one if you're serious about winning a ring (in NBA).

Two of the most amazing, successful teams ever - recent Golden State and Jordan Bulls - never had a dominant center, not even close. Luc Longley? Bill Wennington? JaVale McGee? Zaza Pachulia?  There are others, but you get my point.

Further, unless you call LeBron a "big", most of his best teams didn't feature a dominant center either. Sure, Miami had Bosh, but he was intentionally marginalized into a role player - clear 3rd option behind Wade and LeBron. Cleveland had Tristan Thompson or equally marginalized Kevin Love. Only his Lakers championship featured a dominant big (AD).

So, between the Warriors, the Jordan Bulls and LeBron's Miami and Cleveland, that's a LOT of championships without a dominant center. I'll concede Bosh is borderline, but he definitely wasn't a dominant force on the championship teams.

I'lll have to think about college. Certainly back in the day a dominant big was a requirement, but not so sure about more modern teams.

 

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^

Let's go back to 1980 (functionally modern basketball):
 

Showtime Lakers - 5 rings with Kareem

80s Celtics - 3 rings with McHale + Parish

90s Rockets - 2 rings with Hakeem

99 Spurs - Duncan AND Robinson

3peat Lakers - Shaq

03 Spurs - Duncan

05 Spurs - Duncan

06 Heat - Shaq

07 Spurs - Duncan

08 Celtics - Garnett

Back to Back Lakers - Gasol

Back to Back Heat - Bosh

14 Spurs - Duncan

20 Lakers - AD

21 Bucks - Giannis

 

26/40 of the champions featured a HOF big. The championship formula in the NBA is almost universally accepted as HOF wing + HOF big. Little guys are entertaining, but don't impact winning as much in relation to wings/bigs. 

UMinSF

December 9th, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^

Absolutely agree if you go back that far - but I'd posit that basketball has changed significantly since the 80's, and the style of ball played then isn't really "modern".

The definition of "modern" basketball to me coincides with the increased importance of floor spacing and shooting the three - which has drastically diminished the importance of bigs.

Those Shaq-Kobe/Duncan-Robinson teams were awesome, and Giannis proved a big dude (albeit a more mobile, athletic brand) can still lead a team to a title. Bigs are good.

BUT, Jordan's Bulls proved you don't NEED a great center. LeBron, in his prime, couldn't thrive with a dominant center - Bosh and Love had to get out of the lane and become side pieces. Steph and Clay are at their best with Draymond Green as the "big". 

That's my point. I'm just saying that Jordan won 6, LeBron won 3, and Steph won 3 without a dominant big - so it's not accurate to say it's a requirement. 

It's a fun discussion, for sure. 

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 3:44 PM ^

It’s a subjective topic that probably correlates with one’s aesthetic preferences (I’m a defensive oriented guy).

But the playoffs in particular, are more conducive to paint production because the officiating changes.

When offensive players can’t fraud their way to cheap points, it becomes about size/length/athleticism/effort.

GS had an incredible run with 3 HOFs, but the last 2 years the better shooting/more finesse team has been destroyed in the finals by relatively poor shooting teams because they simply overwhelmed the opposition physically.

All that to say, I guess we can agree to disagree. Fun topic that I like to engage in that gives me a nice break from my evaluation duties at the HS/college level.

 

UMinSF

December 9th, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^

Matt, I deeply respect your opinion/knowledge of hoops. You know your shit.

I just love talking about hoops, a game I know more deeply than football.

I share your love for defense. I'm so glad they've adjusted NBA calls to get away from the ridiculous crap perfected by James Harden - endlessly drawing ticky-tack fouls and flopping around like he's been stabbed.

Gritty, tough scorers like Giannis and Kawhi are amazing to watch, especially in the playoffs.

That said, the great Warriors teams, for me, are the most fun NBA watch since the showtime Lakers and Jordan/Pippen Bulls. Incredibly exciting, creative, explosive, joyful. Just a blast. Masters class edition of Beilein basketball in many ways.

 

UMinSF

December 9th, 2021 at 3:52 PM ^

Matt, did a shallow dive into college hoops. My conclusion? These days, the rare, truly great champions do feature dominant bigs - but the overwhelming majority of recent NCAA champions absolutely do not.

Guards dominate most recent NCAA championship teams. Kemba, Napier, Butler/Mitchell, Brunson - those are the dudes who have led their teams to titles.

6 of the last 10 champs had no real center at all, or at minimum no center who contributed much.

OTOH, the big exceptions are probably 2 of the 3 best teams of the last decade - AD's Kentucky and Okafor/Winslow Duke. They both featured dominant big men. (I'd say '16 'nova was also a great team - they had no real center at all.)

Here's a chart. [I purposely left off cheatin' '13 Louisville, who did have good bigs but they weren't really featured]

2021 Baylor      - Butler, Mitchell  Guards

2019 UVa          - Guy, Hunter, Jerome Guards/swing

2018 Villanova   - Brunson, Devincenzo Guards

                         - Bridges, Paschell Forwards

2017 UNC        - Jackson, Meeks Forwards

                         - Berry Guard

2016 Villanova   - Hart, Arcidiacono, Brunson Guards

                          - Jenkins Forward

2015 Duke         - Okafor, Winslow Center, Forward

                           - Cook, Jones Guard

2014 UConn       - Napier, Boatright Guard

2012 Kentucky    - AD, Kidd-Gilchrest Center, Forward

                             - LambGuard

2011 UConn          - Kemba, Lamb, Napier Guard

Prior to the last decade, most champions did have dominant bigs. Frankly, this is certainly more due to the fact that many great bigs go straight to the league, or don't last in NCAA long enough to become dominant. 

The quality of NCAA basketball has clearly declined in recent years. Guards typically stick around longer, and there are more good guards/swing men than centers, so it makes sense that the winning formula these days is to feature smaller dudes.

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^

I need to hire you lol. I literally argue the same thing...........the college game is definitely driven by guard play for the most part these days. But its impossible to deny that the product has become very bad over the last 5 years. 

The real driving force behind the GS/perimeter oriented game, if we're being honest, is the rule changes that were made at the NBA level. Functionally, the landing zone rule made it impossible to contest a jumpshot. And at the NBA level, that's an impossible task. Why? The NBA wanted more parity, so they tilted the rules in favor of the common man (IE limited athletes)

With the rules reverting to a more 90s/2000s style of play this year, we've seen a more defensive oriented game where shooting percentages have gone down. It's a breath of fresh air for me.

I can't stand an "Open gym" type feel from teams like GS/Phoenix and the like that we saw up until this season. It makes points look cheap. I like every possession to have a playoff type feel where teams have to battle for every single inch. 

UMinSF

December 9th, 2021 at 5:13 PM ^

Thanks for the compliment. Don't count out my Warriors this year - they're back to playing well again, and if Klay can actually come back anywhere near his peak (a la Durant), look out!

It's been fun watching Jordan Poole thrive in GS - it's a perfect fit for him. All those Beilein principles mesh so well with Kerr, yet Poole is much more free to let it fly.

The rules absolutely played a role, but of course so did analytics and simply the realization that threes are very makeable and super valuable.

Sometimes I think the NBA should eliminate the corner three - or widen the court? Today's shooters are just too good.

NJblue2

December 9th, 2021 at 7:38 PM ^

KD isn't really a big and before Kyrie got hurt they were absolutely destroying the Bucks, so if it wasn't for Giannis putting his foot under Kyrie Bucks probably getting swept and the Nets roll. Was Bosh a dominant big on those Heat teams? I would say he was just a really good 3rd option on those teams.

Also how is the 80s modern basketball? I agree having a dominant wing player is best, but I think it's crazy to say bigs banging in the paint like the 80s is modern basketball like now. There's a reason Steph has changed the game a lot and those Warrior teams were dominant.

Jordan2323

December 9th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^

Matt,

Where do you stand as of right now as it pertains to Jones vs Collins/Zeb with minutes distribution and starting? It seems to me that the defense, energy and ball movement is better when Jones is not on the floor. I’m not saying he doesn’t need to play but would he be better served as a backup? Thoughts?

The lineup with Zeb, Frankie, T Will and Kobe the other night (Faulds was in too) was crazy on athleticism and speed. 

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^

It's just so hard to really chime in on the PT battle between Jones/Collins, as neither has been so much better than the other considering the limited sample we have.

I tend to preach patience in CBB because of the sample issue, but have found myself leaning toward increased PT for Collins over the last 2 games. 

Jordan2323

December 9th, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^

Matt, 

Have you been surprised a little by Jones apparently lack of lateral quickness considering the NBA camp feedback for him? It’s both offensively and defensively. 

Also, do you think the pg is a Jones/Collins thing or does Zeb factor in there? 

Lastly, you think Bufkin will break more into the rotation this year as it progresses and we can get a 9-10 player rotation? 

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^

1) Not surprised at all - Jones has always been a poor athlete. That evaluation was just downright bizarre. He's an undersized guard that doesn't move well. You don't see many of those guys at the NBA level absent elite shotmaking ability 

2) In HS, Zeb was at his best as playmaking PG during my live evaluations. He has more upside then either Jones or Collins. The question for him, particularly under Juwan Howard, is whether he's engaged enough defensively to the extent he can stay on the court to showcase his offensive skill. Coach Howard mandates physical effort (whereas Coach Beilein mandated mental effort/no TOs) above all. 

3) If forced to guess, I'd say Bufkin will top out as an 8-9th guy off the bench. He's simply not ready physically. See above re: Juwan's preference for motor/physicality

njvictor

December 9th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^

I really hope that Zeb doesn't transfer and is able to breakout this year. I really like his skillset, athleticism, and defense and think he could really contribute his junior and senior years. If he puts on a little more muscle and continues to develop, I don't see why he couldn't potentially start at the 3 next season

UgLi Eric

December 9th, 2021 at 3:19 PM ^

I like your enthusiasm and agree about Zeb. But is he most likely a 3 or a 2 who can run the point if needed? By the way, and this would have sounded insane just a few days ago, but if his emphasis on good defense continues,  he could be a partial Franz replacement (lanky athleticism, multi positional shut down defender) with the Dia-jack of all trades and Hunter on bigs? Chef's kisses indeed. 

AC1997

December 9th, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^

Good summary and hard to argue with any of that.  Some follow up thoughts to consider though:

 

  • How will the post-gravity and skip passes change when Diabate is back?  Can he make those passes and will the offense work as well with him out there instead of Johns, Williams, 3rd guard, etc.? 
  • I've been saying for months that the path to Zeb being in the rotation is defense first.  I still believe that to be true....but two possessions against the tire fire of Nebraska isn't enough to give me belief just yet - especially when Zeb has been a net negative on the other end of the court at times and we aren't getting much from our other guards (except Eli).  But that's the message I would send him....you're on the floor to defend and not make dumb mistakes on offense.  Embrace it!
  • I do believe that we're seeing Houstan make progress and it isn't just a 1-game thing.  His shot looks better, his other traits show promise, and the coaches seem to be trying things with dribble handoffs to maximize his skill.  I have no clue what to expect from Johns/WIlliams and doubt we'll see them both go for 20 again soon...let alone in the same game.  Any semblance of a decent "floor" for those two stabilizes things.  
  • I agree on Jones seeking his offense more. The guy I'm watching this season doesn't seem capable of averaging almost 20ppg in college....finding some of that output from his Coastal days should help offset his other limitations.  Not sure how though....

Matt EM

December 9th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^

1) I actually think Diabate helps the skip-pass spacing assuming Moussa is stationed inside the lane or in the strong side corner - that's one less guy on the perimeter to rotate out because you're certainly not going to leave him for fear of the Hunter - Moussa dumpoff and ensuing dunk. 

2) Agreed. Sample size/competition not big enough. That said, Verge torched Jones/Brooks/Collins, so that says something about something.

3) Houstan is still bad on defense (I'm a defensive guy so that's critical for me), but he's made some improvements. He's been good as a secondary playmaker for other this year, but he's extremely limited as a shot-creator for himself which limits the volume of on-ball duty you can give him

4) Jones - other than the floater, just don't know how much scoring upside is there

alum96

December 9th, 2021 at 9:37 PM ^

Sometimes you hit it big with Mike Smith, sometimes you don't with Jaaron Simmons.  Give it 6 more weeks but if we are talking like this end January we got the tails not the heads. You just never know.  Respect Mike Smith.