We're tracking how recruiting rankings of Michigan's commits move over the course of the recruiting cycle, because it's useful to have a record of this stuff, and because the way the rankings change often tell us more about the player's prospects than the rankings themselves.

Previously: Offense. July 2019 offense. Feb 2019 offense/defense, July 2018

DE Braiden McGregor

Committed: 5/24/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.43 (down from 4.53)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports	#332 OVR	#322 OVR	89 (#12 SDE) #280 OVR	97 (#3 SDE) #28 OVR	94 (#5 SDE)#108 OVR
Rivals			5.7 (#25 OLB) not ranked	5.8 (#28 SDE) not ranked	5.8 (#17 SDE) not ranked
ESPN			not ranked	86 (#2 ATH) #26 OVR	86 (#1 ATH) #26 OVR
Composite	#260 OVR	#288 OVR	0.8939 (#20 SDE) #329 OVR	0.9603 (#3 SDE)#81 OVR	0.9496 (#4 SDE)#108 OVR

What it means: The huge jump last summer was McGregor getting Discovered at The Opening in late March that coincided with a tour de college football elite: Clemson, FSU, UF, LSU, Bama, PSU, ND, and another visit to Florida. That was a week before that delicious commitment and the subsequent Notre Dame "we never wanted him anyways"-freude. The summer camp circuit led to that 97 from 24/7, which is 5-star territory.

The injury that ended his senior season made sure he wasn't going to stay there, except to ESPN who hasn't redone their rankings. Rivals moved him up before the season (after moving him from OLB) and then dropped him a little after he went down.

The injuries probably won't hurt his long-term potential, but tearing the MCL, PCL, and meniscus is [checks notes] not good, and when sites give out five stars they expect that guy to be an immediate-impact player. He's already off crutches and slated to return for spring ball, for what it's worth. McGregor had some SEC suitors after him earlier this season to rub in the Wisconsin blowout, but they disappeared before he went down.

Outlook: He'll slide down more as the guys who weren't on crutches last month get evaluated and added to the lists, probably ending up in Aidan Hutchinson range.

Comp: While Aidan had the benefit of completing his senior season, there isn't another guy of recent enough vintage to flirt with a five-star after popping out after his junior season. Unless you want to count Tom Strobel.

[After THE JUMP: Risers, and interactive charts]

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DE/DT Aaron Lewis

Committed: 6/23/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.97 (no change)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports			89	90 (#13 SDE) #238 OVR	90 (#12 SDE)#252 OVR
Rivals				5.6 (#43 SDE) not ranked	5.6 (#37 SDE) not ranked
ESPN				80 (#32 DE) not ranked	80 (#32 DE) not ranked
Composite	not rated	0.8556	0.8836	0.8826 (#21 SDE)#434 OVR	0.8810 (#20 SDE)#459 OVR

What it means: They're all looking at Lewis, who's still listed at 6'5"/235 right now, as a defensive end, projecting him to play at about 260 pounds in college. The film above shows a guy who's probably ticketed for inside in Michigan's defense. Without a major change in weight or a sudden flurry of offers I expect him to stay wherever each site has him.

Outlook: There's still some major disagreement there, by the way. 24/7 has him just outside their top-250, and they've been clear that they believe in that evaluation (Michigan's coaches are there too). ESPN has him in the pile of 4-stars who'd be high threes on another site. Rivals doesn't even have him in the high-3-star pool. That's a reflection on how much each of those sites chooses to gamble on guys who need to gain weight. FWIW I think Lewis is more than what he's listed at already.

Comp: There are a bunch of "hang some weight on that guy" borderline 4-star SDE/DE tweeners on my list but not a lot of hits. I'll break them into two categories:

• Those who stayed at end (or haven't yet moved): Gabe Newburg, Taylor Upshaw, Chris Rock, Steve Watson, Ken Wilkins, Greg Banks, Shelton Johnson, Jeremy Van Alstyne, Glen Steele
• Those who moved to DT: Carlo Kemp, Julius Welschof, Lawrence Marshall, Deron Irving-Bey, Donavan Jeter, Dave Spytek, Matt Godin, Michael Morris, Dan Rumishek, Tom Strobel

That's not a great list, pending a few of the kids they've recruited lately who could pop.

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SDE Kris Jenkins

Committed: 7/3/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.79 (up from 3.69)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports			not rated	88 (#25 SDE) #515 OVR	88 (#27 SDE)#543 OVR
Rivals			not rated	5.6 (#48 SDE) not ranked	5.7 (#18 SDE) not ranked
ESPN			not rated	78 (#49 DE) not ranked	78 (#51 DE) not ranked
Composite			not rated	0.8678 (#32 SDE)#645 OVR	0.8776 (#22 SDE)#513 OVR

What it means: Good Counsel isn't an out-of-the-way school and Kris Jenkins is hardly a name football fans wouldn't recognize, but nobody thought to look at Junior until very late in the process. He also was only looking at the big academic schools plus his father's alma mater. Rivals during the season bumped him up within spitting distance of the 4-star border.

That's the most interesting rating. Jenkins is a prospect with ideally DT'ish skills who doesn't look like he's going to get anywhere near 290 pounds. His offers are also decidedly three-star. Why is this a good thing? Because Rivals tends to be more affected by perception, so if they're seeing a guy who's playing like a 4-star but doesn't have the profile of one, this is what they tend to do with him. This quote is also illuminating:

“He’s a late bloomer,” the Archbishop Spalding head man said. “I think it’s a flaw in the system the way some people write kids off if they’re not dominant as freshmen.

“It’s ridiculous that emerging as a junior is viewed as too late nowadays. He’s not a late bloomer at all, but it’s unfortunate that it’s viewed that way in the recruiting game.

Outlook: Late bloomers who go to camps will move up late, and those who don't don't. We might see 24/7 give him another look since they haven't really looked again since the first time.

Comp: Taylor Upshaw, exactly. Note that Upshaw was already on the two-deep by the end of this season, though he didn't ever crack the rotation.

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DE/SAM Jaylen Harrell

Committed: 12/11/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.00 (down from 4.06)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports	93	93	92	88 (#20 WDE)#469 OVR	88 (#22 WDE)#470 OVR
Rivals		5.8 #21 FL	5.8 #26 FL	5.7 (#33 OLB) not ranked	5.7 (#33 OLB) not ranked
ESPN				84 (#2 ILB) #110 OVR	83 (#4 ILB) #172 OVR
Composite	0.9432	0.9515	0.9455 (#7 ILB) #125 OVR	0.9071 (#14 WDE)#289 OVR	0.9002 (#12 WDE)#302 OVR

What it means: This one's pretty obvious: Harrell was considered an early elite LB until he outgrew the position. ESPN still has him a middle linebacker, Rivals moved him to outside linebacker, 24/7 has him at WDE now, and his measurements aren't that far off from the last listed weight of Aaron Lewis.

This is one of those times where the rankings can't mean much because they had to throw out all of their scouting and start again. That the two sites who have looked at him since the growth spurt came up with a relative consensus suggests they have a decent handle on Harrell as a tweener LB/DE who doesn't have the elite athleticism they mistakenly ignored when looking at Josh Uche, but is in that same vein.

Outlook: If anything he'll drop a little more since ESPN is due for a reevaluation. He's hanging onto 4 stars by a thread.

Comp: Here I'll point out that Uche was 212 when he committed, while Harrell is already 20 pounds more than that. Reuben Jones is the nearest example of a hot young LB prospect who was a shot at an edge rusher by the time he committed. Chris Rogers, Rob Swett, and Clint Copenhaver are some older examples of elite sophomore ILBs who looked like quasi-DEs as seniors.

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ILB Kalel Mullings

Committed: 6/27/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.26 (was 4.30)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports	95	91	91	91 (#15 OLB) #186 OVR	90 (#21 OLB)#255 OVR
Rivals	not rated	#82 OVR	#87 OVR	5.9 (#11 OLB) #106 OVR	5.9 (#8 OLB) #91 OVR
ESPN		not rated	82 (#9 OLB) #152 OVR	82 (#14 OLB) #202 OVR	82 (#17 OLB) #208 OVR
Composite	0.9692 (#70 OVR)	0.9545 (#102 OVR)	0.9478 (#106 OVR)	0.9388 (#9 OLB)#148 OVR	0.9315 (#13 OLB)#158 OVR

What it means: So this is the counterpoint for the Massachusetts players who don't go to camps; Mullings did, showed off 4-star running back skills while talking about Don Brown-style linebackers, and then provided plenty of tape to remain the top prospect in the state until almost the very end. His appearance at The Opening regional in May 2019 didn't change opinions so much as confirmed them. Brian Dohn gave him the dreaded "Concern about being close to physically topped out" and Notre Dame and Stanford were mostly interested in him as a running back. Wisconsin wanted him as an athlete—they've produced plenty of excellent linebackers of late from guys sort of like Mullings.

Outlook: Mullings will get a chance to showcase his skills in the All-American Bowl (that we still think of as the Army Game), the results of which could put him in the top-100 or drop him out of the top-200. That Rivals score is really high already.

Comp: Josh Ross remained an OLB to Rivals and ESPN. Mike McCray is another close comp—he got the "ATH" tag from 24/7. Cameron McGrone's rankings looked exactly like this until 24/7 shot him up to their #1 OLB and top-25 right at the end, which could happen with Mullings if he dominates at the Army Game. But he's not the Bush/McGrone comp in this class.

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ILB Osman Savage

Committed: 1/25/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.98 (no change)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports			88 (#27 OLB) #365 OVR	88 (#32 OLB) #477 OVR	88 (#32 OLB)#477 OVR
Rivals		#143 OVR	5.8 (#9 OLB) #143 OVR	5.8 (#14 OLB) #159 OVR	5.8 (#13 OLB) #166 OVR
ESPN			not ranked	79 (#32 OLB) not ranked	79 (#35 OLB) not ranked
Composite		#250 OVR	0.9115 (#16 OLB) #243 OVR	0.9083 (#19 OLB)#274 OVR	0.9083 (#19 OLB)#274 OVR

What it means: The first of three ILBs on the border of 4 stars whose rankings apparently did not change the entirety of the recruiting cycle. Rivals sees Savage as a solid 4-star, borderline top-150 player, while ESPN and 24/7 see an okay linebacker. This conflicts with a report from 24/7's Brian Dohn, who covered St Francis in early October and liked Savage best because he plays fast.

In context of Biff Poggi's five-star factory sometimes a guy can get a little left behind while the people who watch his games focus on Blake Corum and some five-stars going to Bama and LSU and stuff. But it appears every time they checked in Savage met expectations for the heady, around-the-ball, and quite agile prospect they rated exactly where they think he should be.

Outlook: Why move now?

Comp: I keep going back to Chris Graham with this one, because he was a solid four-star, beloved by Lemming, and Rivals, and shrugged at by Scout, all through the process (and yes I followed recruiting a bit too much in 2003). Devin Bush got the same treatment, FWIW, but I don't want to compare people to Devin Bush until they make me yell "You tried to edge [Bush-like person], how did that work out for you?" at an opponent's running back.

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ILB Nikhai Hill-Green

Committed: 5/23/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.94 (was 3.92)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports		90	90	90 (#20 OLB) #279 OVR	90 (#26 OLB)#305 OVR
Rivals				5.7 (#38 OLB) not ranked	5.7 (#23 OLB) not ranked
ESPN			80 (#25 OLB) not ranked	80 (#26 OLB) not ranked	80 (#30 OLB) not ranked
Composite	0.8935	0.8917	0.8889	0.8884 (#27 OLB)#380 OVR	0.8884 (#27 OLB)#382 OVR

What it means: If you saw the tall #41 at MLB in the highlights for Savage, that's Hill-Green, who got a 4th star to 24/7 and ESPN but whom Rivals thought way less of. What it means then is that they've been thoroughly scouted, and Hill-Green isn't as responsible as Savage, but has the better high points. I think the sites are showing their methodology: Rivals likes finished products, ESPN likes shiny things, and 24/7 tries to do more projection.

Outlook: The senior film from Hill-Green has some excellent highlights and the film is reportedly very good, so I expect a slight bump from anyone who takes it in, but he's already pretty high at ESPN and 24/7.

Comp: Right there with teammate Osman Savage, but Hill-Green is more of a boom-or-bust big guy like a Sam Sword or Jarrett Irons, though I admit his teammate's name is way more metal.

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ILB Cornell Wheeler

Committed: 9/25/2018. Current ☆ average: 3.85 (was 3.83)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports		85 (#15 ILB) #511 OVR	85 (#20 ILB) #621 OVR	85 (#42 ILB) #924 OVR	86 (#31 ILB)#798 OVR
Rivals		#224 OVR	5.8 (#5 ILB) #234 OVR	5.8 (#13 ILB) #233 OVR	5.8 (#17 ILB) #245 OVR
ESPN		not ranked	not ranked	79 (#10 ILB) not ranked	79 (#10 ILB) not ranked
Composite	n/a	#479 OVR	0.8782 (#12 ILB) #425 OVR	0.8793 (#19 ILB)#467 OVR	0.8810 (#18 ILB)#458 OVR

What it means: Another reverse of Hill-Green, as Rivals was set that this was a Top-250 guy and stuck to it over subsequent re-ranks (which meant he kept jumping 15-20 guys to stay there), while 24/7 was pretty meh until a late bump to "eh." Also Wheeler was in the class long enough for me to catch it. Also Savage and Hill-Green play for one of the best high school teams in the country while West Bloomfield is only just starting to track.

Going neither up nor down over an entire cycle doesn't mean nothing. I think when they looked, he looked like what they thought he was originally. I also think Rivals is a bit more old-school and Wheeler is definitely more of an old school thunker.

Outlook: His senior film is good but short. My buddy went to almost all of the WB games this year and thought Wheeler was standing out, FWIW.

Comp: Some of the same guys. Add Kenny Demens, who got a 4th star from Rivals but ESPN and Scout were like "eh, high 3-star."

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Viper(?) William Mohan

Committed: 6/23/2019. Current ☆ average: 3.81 (was 3.81)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports			87	87 (#51 ATH) #651 OVR	87 (#44 ATH)#686 OVR
Rivals				5.8 (#23 OLB) not ranked	5.8 (#19 OLB) not ranked
ESPN				78 (#48 ATH) not ranked	78 (#48 ATH) not ranked
Composite			0.8333	0.8850 (#28 ATH)#416 OVR	0.8816 (#23 ATH)#457 OVR

What it means: Guy from Brooklyn, scouted versus people from Brooklyn, and then nothing more to look at so they left him sort of on the border. Rivals gave him a 4-star but he's the last of them in the OLB rankings (which had some guys reclassify to other positions in the re-rank). New York's Boroughs are more out of the way than Massachusetts these days.

Then you add that Mohan's position is kind of a question mark. I know: Viper, right? But he might bulk up to a middle linebacker, or be a smaller Uche type like you're seeing from defenses in the Big XII who face extreme spreads all the time.

Outlook: Not going anywhere.

Comp: You'd like to say Khaleke because they're close in rankings (Hudson got a 4th star from 24/7 late) but Hudson was playing for a fairly well known school in Western Pennsylvania. Brandin Hawthorne maybe? Brandon Herron? Except those guys didn't sniff a 4th star. So fine: Hudson.

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Viper/Safety Jordan Morant

Committed: 6/23/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.27 (down from 4.34)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports	91 #136 OVR	91	95 (#1 S) #41 OVR	95 (#1 S) #47 OVR	94 (#12 S)#116 OVR
Rivals			5.8 (#18 S) #10 NJ	5.8 (#20 S) #8 NJ	5.8 (#23 S) #7 NJ
ESPN		82 (#6 S) #131 OVR	82 (#5 S) #134 OVR	82 (#9 S) #214 OVR	82 (#8 S) #192 OVR
Composite	0.9265 #182 OVR	0.9325 #178 OVR	0.9322 #174 OVR	0.9368 (#10 S) #160 OVR	0.9300 (#14 S)#163 OVR

What it means: Positional uncertainty and a 4.74 forty in April would have been a bigger knock against him except he excelled on the field and put up a 4.69 later on (the re-rank from that didn't come until after the summer). I think a few years ago nobody would have known what to do with him because he's a Khaleke-alike, minus the crazy running back film. He was also a guy a lot of big programs were after early, which put him in the early Top 150s. To stay there—even move up on ESPN, who almost never takes another look these days—means he was a guy the sites liked a lot. 24/7 had him in their top 50 and the #1 safety in the country when he committed. We knew that was soft then, but still: pretty nice prospect eh?

Outlook: He's probably ending in the top 150 since the drop from 24/7 for his speed came with gushing reviews for everything else. Rivals has him just outside their top 250 right now. However he's got an Army Game invite. Khaleke Hudson used the Semper Fi game to catapult from who-dat 3-star to the border region, and this kind of setting does tend to feature the skills of a space player like Morant. It's also a chance to change some ideas about his speed.

Comp: Khaleke wasn't 4 stars. Stevie Brown, who ended up a hybrid space player at Michigan after some bad times at safety as a youth, was pretty close at the end. Stevie was in 5-star territory early in his cycle, rated by some as a cornerback, until he outgrew it.

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Safety RJ Moten

Committed: 7/27/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.15 (was 3.86)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports	No rating	No rating	85 #814 OVR	92 (#12 ATH) #177 OVR	94 (#6 ATH)#93 OVR
Rivals			Not rated	5.5 (NR ATH) #27 NJ	5.7 (#32 ATH) #14 NJ
ESPN			No profile	81 (#18 ATH) #245 OVR	81 (#15 ATH) #251 OVR
Composite	No rating	No rating	0.8500 (#755 OVR)	0.8937 (#18 ATH)#332 OVR	0.9191 (#18 ATH)#205 OVR

What it means: Quietly one of the biggest movers in the class over the course of the cycle as a freakish raw athlete who didn't provide any film playing safety until a few months ago. You really see a difference in how the sites treat late risers with Moten: Rivals left him an ATH as he climbed up the ranks of 3-stars. 24/7 was comfortable bumping him up to their top-100 after Bart Simmons called Moten "just a high achieving person" after Moten was the top performer of The Opening's NJ regional. ESPN looked over the summer, said he was a top-250-ish player, and left him there. He was still playing RB for Delran this year but made some crazy plays and showed long speed that's ample for covering most anyone released into the secondary. He also could be anything from a viper, to a cornerback, to an outfielder for Bakich. His dad was an NFL linebacker FWIW.

Outlook: His senior game film is going to tell a lot since most of those ratings are based on camp settings. The late scout and "versatility" means he could move 100 or more spots in any direction depending on what the analysts see at the Army game. There's a possibility he gets to five stars on 24/7. I think Rivals is going to bump him up too. Everyone's so late getting to this scout they don't want to declare a five-star out of the blue, but 24/7 declaring him a top-100 prospect is certain to affect how the others see him, and they've all seen him so little that it's going to have an outsized role in his final rankings. If Michigan gets a five-star in this class it's because Moten looked like one of the best players there. It's not out of the question, but he's also pretty damn raw and the sites tend to expect 5-stars to be ready to plug in immediately. My guess is Rivals bumps him to a 5.9 and the others stay put.

Comp: If Jabrill is off limits—Moten's one thing is his 40 time is good for a safety while Peppers was elite there—and Shonte Peoples is too long ago for most of you, let's go with Cato June, who like Moten was a crazy good athlete and a hyper-motivated person. June's Michigan career was derailed by injuries but he was the vanguard of hybrid OLBs in the NFL and is now having a lot of success through the coaching ranks. June—and I can't believe I remember this—also was a star running back and trivia top 100 guy in that incredible 1998 class.

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Safety Makari Paige

Committed: 7/27/2019. Current ☆ average: 4.17 (was 4.21)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports	90 #189 OVR	90 #190 OVR	91 #194 OVR	91 (#23 182)#203 OVR	91 (#21 S)#214 OVR
Rivals			5.8 #4 MI	5.8 (#18 S) #6 MI	5.8 (#21 S) #7 MI
ESPN				81 (#12 S) #230 OVR	81 (#12 S) #235 OVR
Composite	0.9215 #193 OVR	0.9243 #200 OVR	0.9215 #222 OVR	0.9142 (#22 S)#244 OVR	0.9121 (#25 S)#242 OVR

What it means: Boring. He's 6'3", can play safety, and has been doing so rather well for a long time in a program people know to treat now as the new Farmington Hills Harrison. Four-star, four-star, four-star.

Outlook: Four-star. Nothing new on the senior tape.

Comp: Pay no attention to his coach Ron Bellamy saying things like "Ernest Shazor." Jamar Adams is around here too but Jarrod Wilson is the archetype now. Wilson's rankings were always just about #230.

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Cornerback Andre Seldon

Committed: 6/20/2018. Current ☆ average: 4.17 (was 4.10)

	July 2018	Dec 2018	Feb 2019	July 2019	Dec 2019
247Sports	86 (#25 CB) #355 OVR	88 (#23 CB) #310 OVR	88 (#23 CB) #323 OVR	89 (#36 CB) #397 OVR	89 (#29 CB)#357 OVR
Rivals	5.6 (#26 CB) not ranked	NR	5.7 (#26 CB) not ranked	5.8 (#31 CB) not ranked	5.8 (#20 CB) #232 OVR
ESPN		82 (#13 CB) #150 OVR	82 (#13 CB) #158 OVR	83 (#14 CB) #155 OVR	83 (#14 CB) #161 OVR
Composite	0.8578 (#32 CB) #452 OVR	0.9026 (#28 CB) #321 OVR	0.9017 (#22 CB) #291 OVR	0.9128 (#20 CB)#256 OVR	0.9146 (#16 CB)#233 OVR

What it means: What if Jeffrey Okudah was 5'8". The rankings climbed while falling—Seldon committed early and gravity did its thing but each time he kept getting bumped back into that 250-350 range. ESPN plopped him at exactly 150 then left him there, moving just 11 guys ahead of him in subsequent re-ranks. It's the ratings version of the same though process you went through every time you watched Seldon play: "Good lord this kid can cover! But he's only 5'8". But GOOD LORD can he cover! And he's 5'8".

Outlook: Barely hangs on to the top-250, unless he suddenly grows two inches or something.

Comp: Todd Howard and Blake Countess. The thing bumming Michigan fans out is the list of players in Seldon's range haven't worked out for us. Zia Combs got injured, Quinton McCoy didn't make it to campus, Terry Richardson never gained the weight, and Boubacar Cissoko, the nearest comparison if you ignore Scout.com's 5-star, was a disaster for personality reasons. The sites are more stingy these days with high ratings for low guys, so Seldon's average is actually more in like with Jalen Perry, Jaylen Kelly-Powell, Morgan Trent, and Andre Weathers, all guys who were rated very highly then dropped because they had some sort of ceiling. Todd Howard  and Blake Countess are really in a group above but they were also 2 inches taller.

The Class as a Whole

Let's see if I can get Tableau working again (go here for full screen). You can mouseover the boxes to see who's who.

The width of the boxes correspond to the average star rating—my version of the composite. From up here it doesn't look like the hair-pulling event some message boards make it out to be. Notice there are a lot of what we here call "3.5-stars"—which are guys who came in just under 4 stars, maybe getting a 4th to one service but not all three. That's the big difference between this class and some of the disappointing or transition classes: everybody expect a tight end not expected to sign and the last-minute quarterback nobody's scouted yet is like a 3.7-star or higher.

The position chart (link):