Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

I’m not sure why you are reading this.

Maybe you’re just trying to fill those painful, interminable hours between sunrise and kickoff. Maybe you’re trying to keep yourself from investing that nervous energy into the Thanksgiving leftovers. Or maybe you are searching for real wisdom, or, failing that, to learn about Raj’s latest TV series reboot idea, or conspiracy theory, or TV series reboot conspiracy theory.

Now, in fairness, “why am I reading this” would be reasonable question every week. But it’s especially true this week. This is the game people think about all year. The game that randomly finds its way into conversations about every other game. The game that… well, The Game.

[Fuller]

By now you know what you need to know. You know how this goes. And you know how Ohio State wins. It’s an easy story to write. It’s the path of least resistance, and the most likely outcome. Ohio State has won 7 in a row and 16 out of the last 18 against Michigan. They are the #1 team in the country in SP+. They are #2 in all the polls. They have won their 11 games by an average margin of 38.9 points, and they’ve won 10 of those games by at least 24 points. They’ve scored the most points per game of any team in the country. They’ve given up the fewest points of any team in the country.

The case for Ohio State winning is, “well… yeah.” It’s like previewing a Tyson fight from the late 80’s. You don’t have to dig too deep.

“His key to victory, I think, is the punching”

[After THE JUMP: You’re a good man.]

At first glance, a path to a Michigan victory feels much more circuitous. Perhaps if they do everything they can to stay alive, avoid the knockout, and take it into the deep rounds, maybe they’ll catch a break. But you can’t beat Ohio State by avoiding mistakes and dodging punches. No, Ohio State is too good for that. A clean game isn’t enough. You have to do something no one has done to Ohio State yet: you have to punch first.

Tyson famously opined that “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Michigan? Oh, Michigan has been punched. Football Armageddon was a left cross. 2016’s sequel, Football Armageddon 2: Armageddoner, was a right hook. And 371 days ago, Michigan took an uppercut to the chin that put them squarely on the canvas.

And if we’re being honest, early this year, while they were technically up off the mat, it looked like Michigan might be out on its feet; even if they made it to today’s game intact, they wouldn’t be able to defend themselves from the coup de grâce. There would have been no shame. It’s the kind of blow a lot of programs wouldn’t recover from, at least not right away.

[Barron]

But a funny thing happened. Michigan steadied themselves. They steeled themselves. And they started throwing haymakers. They fought back against Penn State when it looked like another beating was in the offing. They throttled Notre Dame in a downpour. They put the hammer down on Michigan State. They looked Inevitably Stupid Indiana Game square in the eye and didn’t let them out of the third round. And now they stand, on the eve of The Game, healthy and hitting their stride and looking like the team we expected to see when the season started.

Ohio State hasn’t been punched yet this year. They haven’t been made to react. They haven’t had to gather themselves, dust themselves off, and respond. Their road schedule (Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Rutgers) hasn’t prepared them for this. And, on a higher level, they have lived a charmed existence for the past two decades.

Sure, the reason Ohio State hasn’t had to respond to getting knocked down is the same as it was with Early Tyson: they’re destroying everything in their path. I get that. But on more than a few occasions in the last few years—2018 Purdue, 2017 Iowa, 2016 Clemson, 2015 Michigan State, and 2014 Virginia Tech all come to mind—Ohio State has reminded us that while they have a devastating punch, their jaw is as human as anyone else’s.

I don’t think Michigan wins this game. History and Vegas agree. Ohio State has too much margin for error. But if the weather is bad and the ball is bouncing, one team has already shown it can roll with the punches. And that may—may—be enough.

Michigan 21, Ohio State 20.

----------------------------

COUNTERPUNT

By Internet Raj
@internetraj

When I was in eighth grade, I had the soul snatched right out of my body. Murdered in cold blood. Zipped up in a body bag. Spitfire roasted so badly I still have grill marks on my ribs. You see, I had a crush on a classmate of mine named Andrea, but I was too nervous to tell her about it. So when I coyly handed her my yearbook to sign on the last day of middle school, I was hoping it would be returned with a kind, friendly message—maybe even one that would inspire confidence in me that my carefree wit, boyish charm, and Cool Water-soaked American Eagle polos were as irresistible as I thought it was.

Boy, was I wrong.

RIP Internet Raj (1987-2000)

I’m not sure exactly how it felt when Julius Caesar was betrayed by his closest allies as they plunged a dagger into his back, but I’m confident it can’t be too different than a jagged cold steel of a line like “we are not that close of friends, but it’s all good.” I’m not even mad. You just have to tip your cap to Andrea on this one and respect the message; it was delightfully savage.

The life lesson here is that sometimes you delude yourself into thinking you’re in a two-way relationship. That you’re in. That you have a shot. And then, boom, you get Andrea’d.

Michigan vs. Ohio State has entered such a rarified echelon of sports lore that it’s merely referred to and immediately recognized as “The Game.” The two teams are often cited as the biggest rivals in all of sports. But “rivalry” necessarily connotes there being some semblance of a two-way relationship; some modicum of a legitimate back-and-forth.

And for the last 15 years, Michigan has failed to hold up its end of the bargain, getting Andrea’d on an annual basis. And what Ohio State has done to Michigan has been far more merciless than a cold yearbook message. The Buckeyes have taken our yearbook, smacked us across the face with it, and lit on fire in front of our faces.

There’s nothing to say that hasn’t already been said. There’s nothing to write that hasn’t already been written. There’s nothing to Narrative that hasn’t already been Narrative’d. We have all felt the pain that this game has inflicted upon our collective souls. Devastating close losses. Spirit crushing blowouts. And everything in between.

The Game is now beyond mere words for Michigan fans. Last year, in this very column, I spilled a whole load of ink about how I was tired of Michigan constantly shitting its pants against Ohio State for the past 15 years of the rivalry. And guess what? Michigan proceeded to shit its pants, getting its doors blown off 62-39.

One of these years, the tide will turn. It has to. The laws of probability and physics demand it. But year in and year out, for the past decade, we’ve been pummeled. Every November, an irrepressible hope bubbles within me, fomenting a belief that this will be the year. So will it be today? Michigan is playing its most inspired football of the season, but Ohio State has looked like an unstoppable Death Machine for the entire year. They have no material flaws or gaps on offense or defense.

All available objective evidence and logical reasoning is telling me that Michigan’s 2019 yearbook will be the recipient of nothing more than a sad, nonchalantly scrawled “H.A.G.S.” in the form of an eighth consecutive soul-crushing loss.

Ohio State 31, Michigan 27

No, wait. Actually strike that. This is the year. This is the year we break through. This is the year our yearbooks aren’t filled with a heartbreaking missive but instead with Jim Harbaugh’s smiling mug above the caption “Most Likely To Succeed” and Greg Mattison’s sad face accompanied by a “Most Likely to Stab Those Close To Him In The Back Only To Get His Just Comeuppance.”

The Game (2018 vs. 2019)

This is the year, because it has to be.

LFFFFFFFFFFFFFFGGGGGGGGGGGGG.

Michigan 31, Ohio State 27, Number of times Nico Collins causes Greg Mattison to smash his Life Alert Button 2