Preview: Ohio State
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
Michigan (19-7, 9-4 B1G) at Ohio State (16-10, 8-5) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Value City Arena Columbus, Ohio |
WHEN | 7 pm ET, Tuesday |
LINE | OSU -2 (KenPom) |
TV |
ESPN PBP: Bob Wischusen Analyst: Dan Dakich |
Right: Ohio State, in a trolling maneuver for which I can only show grudging respect, is retiring Evan Turner's number tonight. With that in mind, let's remember the best of times. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
THE US
Caris LeVert is back! Well, sort of. He played 11 minutes, all in the first half, against Purdue on Saturday before gassing out, and whether due to lingering effects of his injury or being out of game shape (or both) he looked a step slow when he was out there.
As such, it's not a huge surprise to see that he's still a game-time decision:
LeVert, speaking with local reporters for the first time since the injury, said Monday that he will continue to be a "game-time decision" moving forward — basing his availability on how he feels through pregame warmups — and that he continues to progress from the injury.
"Pain is still going to be his guide," coach John Beilein said. "If he's feeling any soreness anywhere in his body, we'll pull him out and wait. It's important that he takes his time in getting back to full strength."
LeVert acknowledged the obvious—he's not 100%—and said he hopes to be at full strength by the end of the season. If he plays tonight, he'll be limited again, and almost certainly still coming in off the bench.
THE STAKES
Covered in detail yesterday. A victory would come close to locking up an NCAA bid while also keeping Michigan in fourth in the Big Ten. Moving up in the conference this week looks unlikely with Maryland and Indiana, both a game in front of Michigan, taking on Minnesota and Nebraska in their respective upcoming games.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 13 | JaQuan Lyle | Fr. | 6'5, 201 | 70 | 25 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Decent slasher, gets lots of assists, but poor shooter and TO-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 2 | Marc Loving | Jr. | 6'7, 220 | 81 | 22 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
With shot failing (31% 3P), relies on drawing fouls to get his points. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 1 | Jae'Sean Tate | So. | 6'4, 225 | 71 | 21 | No | ||||||||||||
Novakian forward is excellent off. rebounder, decent finisher, can hit threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 33 | Keita Bates-Diop | So. | 6'7, 235 | 76 | 19 | No | ||||||||||||
Inconsistent, but at his best a plus rebounder who can score inside and outside. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 32 | Trevor Thompson | So. | 6'11, 250 | 44 | 20 | Very | ||||||||||||
Excellent rebounder and shot-blocker, okay finisher, foul-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 15 | Kam Williams | So. | 6'2, 180 | 51 | 16 | No | ||||||||||||
Just A Shooter™, leads B1G at 54% on threes in conference play. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 4 | Daniel Giddins | Fr. | 6'10, 230 | 41 | 16 | Very | ||||||||||||
Good offensive rebounder and shot-blocker, bad at scoring (41% 2P, 38% FT). | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 12 | AJ Harris | Fr. | 5'9, 165 | 32 | 17 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Tiny, turnover-prone, and not much of a scorer. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
This year the Buckeyes are just sort of there. They have a decent assemblage of talent but nobody who looks like a star—D'Angelo Russell is missed—and they've compiled an 8-5 Big Ten record by beating the teams they should (8-0 vs. the bottom half of the conference) and losing to better squads (0-5 against Indiana, Maryland [x2], Purdue, and Wisconsin).
Their leading scorer is Jae'Sean Tate, who's 6'4" but plays like a power forward. While he remains an excellent offensive rebounder, his two-point shooting has dipped from 63% last year to 55% this year without Russell commanding so much attention; he has added the threat of an occasional three-pointer.
Wings Marc Loving and Keita Bates-Diop have both been inconsistent players while carrying a decent chunk of the scoring load. Loving is shooting just 40% on twos and 30% on threes in conference play, relying on a high free-throw rate to keep his scoring up. Bates-Diop doesn't get to the line as much but is a more effective shooter (51/34/80 splits in B1G play) and he also provides solid rebounding and shot-blocking. Sixth man Kam Williams plays close to starter-level minutes and is by far the team's best outside shooting threat; he leads the conference with a 54% mark from beyond the arc in Big Ten play.
Nominal point guard JaQuan Lyle came in as a top-50 prospect with a ton of hype that he's still working to fulfill. At 6'5", 200, Lyle isn't the most natural point, and while he's dishing out a little under five assists per game, he's also turning the ball over on nearly a quarter of his possessions. Lyle can get to the rim and finish or draw contact, but his outside shot (26% 3P) is a work-in-progress. He's lost a handful of starts to 5'9" freshman AJ Harris, who's worse in every major statistical category and, again, is a 5'9" freshman.
Trevor Thompson and Daniel Giddins provide two big bodies at center who can rebound and block shots; neither is a major threat as a post scorer, with Thompson (52% 2P in Big Ten games) faring better than Giddins (41%) in that regard. Both are quite foul-prone, which on occasion forces the Buckeyes to play small-ball.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Aside from getting to the line, the Buckeyes are below-average in pretty much every major offensive category. They're especially bad at two-pointers (47%, 12th in B1G) and free throws (66%, 13th); they're marginally better at threes (35%, 8th) but they don't attempt many. Their offense ranks just ninth in the conference in efficiency.
The defense, on the other hand, is above-average in most aspects—fourth in the Big Ten against both two- and three-pointers and second in blocks—but they force few turnovers and commit a few too many fouls, so they're right in the middle of the pack at seventh in the B1G in defensive efficiency.
THE KEYS
Keep Lyle on the perimeter. JaQuan Lyle can be very effective when teams allow him to get to the basket—he went off for 27 in the loss to Wisconsin, making 8/13 twos—but when that doesn't happen he tends to disappear; in the four games prior to Wisconsin, he went a combined 0/6 from two and scored a total of 11 points with seven assists and 12 turnovers. If Derrick Walton stays in front of Lyle, he can shut him down.
Box out. OSU isn't much of a shooting team but they can generate second chances with their size across the board. Whoever matches up with Jae'Sean Tate—presumably Zak Irvin—will have their hands full on the boards, and the bigs will have to play their part too; the one way OSU's centers can really make a significant impact on offense is if they're hauling in rebounds. If the Buckeyes are one-and-out, they're not overly likely to make that one.
Pick spots (and pockets). The Buckeye bigs have a tendency to cough up the rock when they have it, and the point guards have really struggled to hang onto the ball. Michigan turned the game around against Purdue in large part because of timely double-teams that forced turnovers and led to easier offense on the other end; OSU doesn't run the ball through the post nearly as much, but Michigan could still replicate that performance by keeping a close eye on passing lanes and turning the pressure up on OSU's more turnover-prone players.
THE MOMENT OF ZEN
Might want to keep this handy when ESPN inevitably shows That Thing Evan Turner Did.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Ohio State by 2.
I actually like this matchup for Michigan quite a bit, but road wins are hard to come by and the Wolverines have had trouble containing slashing lead guards like Lyle. This one may come down to which shooter—Kam Williams or Duncan Robinson—gives his team a bigger lift.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Alex on M's two signature wins thus far.
February 16th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^
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February 16th, 2016 at 4:41 PM ^
I think on paper this is a good match up for UM. If this game was in AA, I'd feel a lot more confident. Like most young teams OSU has had problems on the road, but has been fairly tough at home.
Big game in terms of BTT seeding: a UM win I would guess means UM is almost certain to finish ahead of OSU. An OSU win and both teams have 5 losses with tough closing stretches and OSU holding the head to head tiebreaker.
February 16th, 2016 at 5:00 PM ^
If you can clear 1.0 PPP on offense, you beat the Buckeyes. It's been the case for almost every game this season for them.
February 16th, 2016 at 5:34 PM ^
60% of the time, it works everytime
February 16th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^
Ace: Have you ever predicted a different thing, other than what Kenpom predicts? If so, when? If not, why not? Is there ever a time or place when you say, "I think kenpom is wrong, for the following reason(s)."
For myself, I think Kenpom is wrong, because I believe that Caris LeVert will make enough of a difference to push Michigan to a victory. He's from Pickerington, OH, maybe 25 minutes outside of Columbus. LeVert is motivated, simply because iirc, he wasn't extended a scholarship by Matta. While he is rusty, I think that having a bit more practice on Monday will allow him to come in and give some valuable minutes. While not at full strength, he won't be much of a drop off. And his coming in will make a difference in giving a breather to either Walton or Irvin or both. It is hard for both of them to play virtually the whole game. This gives them some time to rest. If LeVert can give 10 minutes in the first half and 5 - 10 in the second, that makes a huge difference.
February 16th, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^
February 16th, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
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February 16th, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
February 16th, 2016 at 5:34 PM ^
That's an awesome find. Either you have a very good memory, a very good search engine, or patience to go through prediction threads one by one to find this one.
February 16th, 2016 at 5:43 PM ^
I believe we have something like a 1 - 733 record (I looked it up) when Ace goes against KenPom ...We don't tempt the Pom anymore.
February 16th, 2016 at 5:43 PM ^
I don't follow basketball very closely, so can someone explain to me how or why OSU has just one junior and no seniors on their roster?
February 16th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^
and they're stupid face stupid heads.
February 16th, 2016 at 6:06 PM ^
They had two small classes in a row with a lot of attrition. In 2013-14, they were heavy on upperclassmen, so only had two sophomores and two freshmen. Of that group of four players, one is now playing professionally in Italy (Della Valle), one had several concussions and has ended his career (Lorbath), and one took a redshirt (Williams). Result is only one of the four is currently rostered (Loving)
February 16th, 2016 at 6:35 PM ^
Thank you.
February 16th, 2016 at 6:22 PM ^
February 16th, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^
We had some sharp looking unis in the Aaron Crafft air-ball .gif. We need to go back to those.
February 16th, 2016 at 6:41 PM ^
You should have used the gif with the fans streaming to the exits after the airball.
February 16th, 2016 at 6:43 PM ^
Don't think LeVert is playing... Not in uniform pic.twitter.com/MN3Vjww3VE
— Mark Snyder (@Mark__Snyder) February 16, 2016
February 16th, 2016 at 9:00 PM ^
February 16th, 2016 at 8:52 PM ^
February 16th, 2016 at 8:53 PM ^
From the start. Come off a great win at Purdue and they act like they don't want to be in Ohio for this game. Still predict they will not make the NCAA's. Beilein can't coach the new kids up and is paying for it now that they need minutes from the bench and can't get them. Would be nice if we had a coach that could actually recruit...especially coming off that National Championship game. Personally, I would like to see UofM get a coach who at least has one foot in the 21st century. JB cannot coach in the Big Ten.
February 16th, 2016 at 8:57 PM ^
February 16th, 2016 at 9:35 PM ^
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