THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's diagram (click to embiggen):

Franz Wagner will not be suiting up tonight. The team isn't giving an updated timeline for his return; his status for next week's Battle 4 Atlantis tournament sounds very up in the air:

Juwan Howard said Franz Wagner is still wearing a splint on his wrist and won't be suiting up for tomorrow's game against Houston Baptist. Still no updated timeline on when he's expected to come back.

— James Hawkins (@jamesbhawkins) November 21, 2019

My guess is the starting lineup and rotation will stay how it's been. While Adrien Nunez will start, his defense will keep him on a short leash, and David DeJulius should see 25+ minutes against another undersized team.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's diagram (click to embiggen):

One day Michigan will play a remotely tall team. Today is not that day.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Houston Baptist has become a staple of Michigan's non-conference schedules. This is their fourth trip to Ann Arbor since 2009; M's average margin of victory in those games is 34 points. The Huskies have been coached since 1991, long before they joined the D-I ranks, by Ron Cottrell, who runs a system that's... well, it's fast. They're fifth nationally in adjusted tempo in this young season; they were ninth last year, 14th the year prior.

Their goal is to get down the floor as fast as possible and get a layup or an open spot-up three. If that fails, the ball is probably going through wing Ian DuBose, who averaged 17 points per game last year while shooting 43% from beyond the arc. Aside from an elevated turnover rate, he's got an efficient game for a high-volume player—as last year's shot chart shows, his looks either come from three-point range or at the rim:

DuBose also draws a lot of fouls and hits ~70% of his free throws. He put in 20 in a season-opening loss to Texas Tech's vaunted defense; he's a legit player who'll provide a different defensive challenge as a 6'4", 220-pound attacking wing. Given the lineups Michigan has put out, he could draw Isaiah Livers on one possession and Zavier Simpson the next. He'll put some stress on M's pick-and-roll coverage.

Only one other starter returns, and forward Philip McKenzie hasn't started or played more than 15 minutes in a game this season—for good reason, since he went 3/20 on threes last year and hasn't made any of his four shots so far from the field.

The other main offensive threat so far has been guard Jalon Gates, an extreme Just A Shooter who's come out firing, making 14/33 triples in three games. He's a senior whose best season mark is 34% on 190 attempts, so there's likely a level of flukiness to his start, but there's no reason to give him a decent look. Nominal point guard Myles Pierre is having some major freshman struggles; he's 7/22 from the field with eight assists and 16 turnovers.

Junior Ty Dalton is an intriguing 6'4" "stretch four"; he posted 55/37/78 (2P%/3P%/FT%) shooting splits and broke out over the second half of 2018-19. He's a very willing passer, though he often cancels them out with turnovers, and he's got active hands on defense, though he graded out poorly as an individual defender last year. He's also by far the team's most reliable defensive rebounder. 6'10", 250-pound junior Ryan Gomes rounds out the starting lineup; he's a decent finisher, awful free-throw shooter, shockingly absent from the defensive glass, and foul-prone.

When Gomes leaves the floor, which is for over half the game, this team gets... if not smaller, then different-shaped. Their primary backup center is 6'7", 265-pound sophomore Benjamin Uloko, who's struggled to do much other than pull down a few offensive boards. That puts him better off than 6'9", 280-pound freshman Zach Iyeyemi, who has two points, no rebounds, four turnovers, no blocks, and five fouls in 14 minutes.

The top bench threat is 6'5" sophomore wing Qon Murphy, a very willing outside shooter off to a 5/11 start on threes. He was atrocious as a scorer in limited time last year and his two-point shooting is still down; he had a rough go against Texas Tech.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

While we're still working with tiny samples, the HBU defense's numbers fall in line with their recent history; they've finished above the 300s in adjusted defense twice in 11 years. Their ludicrous-speed pace leads to a layup line on the other end, and they're not even good at rebounding the rare misses.

The offense is heavily predicated on scoring on the break. Per Synergy, they're in the 88th percentile in transition efficiency, scoring 1.2 points per possession. In the halfcourt, they plummet to 0.75 PPP (13th percentile). They've really struggled to score inside the arc this year, shooting 40.7% as a team on two-pointers; they have a respectable 34.6% mark on threes.

THE KEYS

Control the pace. HBU is going to want to play faster than Michigan; they want to play faster than everyone, and the Wolverines have a starting center who's not ideally suited for a game approaching 80 possessions. Michigan should be able to keep it reasonable; John Beilein's teams forced HBU into 66-possession games in each of their last two matchups (and still scored 107 in one of them). There will be early, open shots; when those aren't available, the team needs to be disciplined in running their sets and not committing live-ball turnovers.

Clean up the glass. The Huskies aren't a good rebounding team, but that's kind of the point. Michigan is giving up offensive rebounds on 30% of opponent misses, ranking 213th nationally. Jon Teske had a difficult time boxing out and securing rebounds against Creighton, a small team that tried to turn up the tempo. HBU's starting center is damn near allergic to rebounding, and their top two offensive board threats this year are 6'4" (DuBose) and 6'2" (Pierre), so there's little excuse not to dominate the glass. Teske and the power forwards should get plenty of putback opportunities, too, even though M won't crash the boards.

KenPom Time. This is one of those games in which the KenPom cover can swing hard one way or the other in garbage time because of the pace. Play sound, bench mob!

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 24.

A track meet in which one team has almost all of the best athletes.