THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Events earlier today give Michigan this path to a regular season title:

• win out
• hope Purdue drops a game at Minnesota or Northwestern

That's a tough ask but Kenpom gives the Boilers a 50/50 shot at losing, because road games. Michigan will be the #3 seed at worst since it holds tiebreakers against Maryland and Wisconsin in the event Michigan loses both of its next two games, which please don't do that.

THE LINEUP CARD

Click for big.

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	13	Anthony Cowan	Jr.	6'0, 170	85	26	109	Meh
Mini-Carsen-Edwards hit some threes in the last three games to get up to 47/34 from the floor. 19 TO rate a problem.
G	2	Eric Ayala	Fr.	6'5, 205	72	16	111	No
Composite #78 FR. 43% from three, 46% inside arc with 22 TO rate. Get all his own shots inside arc though?
F	44	Darryl Morsell	So.	6'5, 200	61	18	97	Meh
Miraculously low FT rate for guy with half his shots at the rim. Doesn't convert there, bad on threes (27%), high TO rate. In sum: bleah. Good defender.
C	11	Jalen Smith	Fr.	6'10 215	64	23	111	Yes
Lanky goggled C playing a bit out of position most of the time thanks to Fernando. 55/26 from floor, rock bottom TO rate. Mostly assisted at rim; 66% there ain't great for 6'10 leaper.
C	24	Bruno Fernando	So.	6'10, 240	73	24	119	Yes
Modern NBA C on track for late 1st round pick. 66% from floor, huge FT rate, hits 'em, rebound vacuum, TOs only major flaw.
F	21	Aaron Wiggins	Fr.	6'6, 200	60	17	112	No
Composite #42 FR. May have bigger 2/3 eFG gap than anyone in the country: 36% from two with just 24 FTAs on year, 42% from three.
G	5	Serrel Smith	Fr	6'4 170	33	16	104	Meh
Composite #154 FR. Poor shooting inside and out, 18 TO rate, low usage.
F	0	Ricky Lindo	Fr.	6'8 200	33	11	90	Yes
#446 FR per 247, no composite. Does nothing except rebound.
F	35	Ivan Bender	Sr	6'9 228	9	14	55	Yes
Deeeeep bench guy hasn't taken a shot since Jan. 5th and usually gets 1-3 MPG.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Michigan saw these guys two weeks ago so there's not much more to say other than "yep, still Maryland." Since losing 65-52 at Crisler, Maryland has

• escaped Iowa by one despite being in buzzer-beater range against the suddenly clutch Hawkeyes,
• beaten OSU by 10 at home, and
• gotten hamblasted at Penn State by 27.

As a result there's not even many Updated Personnel Item bullets:

• Anthony Cowan had a grim game against Michigan, his fourth consecutive sub-100 ORTG game. He busted out of that slump with 8/14 shooting from three against Iowa and OSU before going back in the tank (15 points on 13 shot equivalents but 0 assists and 5 TOs) against PSU.
• With 13 TOs in his last four games, Bruno Fernando's TO rate has jumped to 23.
• Jalen Smith is locked in a slump, with 10 TOs and 0 assists in the last four games and 10/23 shooting from 2.
• I didn't mention that Darryl Morsell is a Matthews-esque wing; his defense helps make up for his grungy offense.

Something we can talk about in this section: what happened last time. Michigan had just gotten punched in the mouth by Penn State and came out at home 100% locked in on defense. Ten minutes into the game Michigan led 19-6, and it felt like 6 was the number of points Maryland deserved. Bruno Fernando sat much of the next ten minutes and finished the half 0/4 from the floor. Cowan had two points.

The only reason the game wasn't dead and buried at halftime was Michigan's gross shooting—this was the game in which Teske left everything short and was 0/6 from three until his late dagger settled things.

This time around it's Maryland coming off the shocking first half at Penn State and returning to their home floor angry.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Maryland's offense has barely budged from two weeks ago: they crash the offensive glass, turn the ball over, are terrible at forcing turnovers, and are very good a defending twos. In conference play they rely entirely on rebounds for their shot volume:

This didn't work out for them so well the first time around as they were –5 in OREBs – TOs; Michigan was even.

THE KEYS

Officiating. The prior matchup was the game after Beilein's ejection, and Michigan was subjected to a notably decreased rate of garbage fouls when they contested vertically. That was critical as Michigan extended to their early lead, as Maryland repeatedly tried to finish through Michigan players and failed to do so.

I know we're all team Castleton now but foul trouble for Teske against Bruno Fernando would still be very very bad, and it's not hard to see him picking up a foul or two when the opposition initiates the contact. This is at the Any Big Ten Road Game Center, after all.

[Campredon]

Bench contributions. With Charles Matthews unlikely to be available, Michigan will again be forced to play more of their freshman class than they have for most of the season. Picking up 15 points from those guys would go a long way towards winning.

Castleton's minutes will probably have to come when Fernando is on the bench and a similarly stick-insect-like guy plays C for Maryland, but if he can get some work done in there that'll bode well for both the game and the stretch run. Similarly, a DDJ breakout game would fill a hole in the rotation.

Converting transition opportunities. Maryland is dead last in league play in steal rate suffered. Michigan kept their head above water in the first game almost entirely by exploiting this. A third of their shots were in the first ten seconds of the clock, and their eFG was 76%. In the halfcourt: 35%.

Part of that was Teske's anomalously bad (and probably slightly injured) day. Part of that was Maryland having a very good half-court D. Avoiding that D when Maryland provides opportunities to do so, and they will provide those opportunities, is a major opportunity.

Make some dang threes. Maryland's D gives up a lot of threes but people don't hit them much. After watching the first game I assert that's a fluke. 27% probably won't cut it on the road.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.