This Is Our Concern, Basketball Edition Comment Count

Brian

2/28/2016 – Michigan 57, Wisconsin 68 – 20-10, 10-7 Big Ten

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[Patrick Barron]

I try to avoid putting certain thoughts on twitter during basketball games because the replies they draw tend to send me into a "someone is wrong on the internet" pit. This didn't go so well yesterday, in both directions.

I expressed frustration at Michigan's horrendous defense in the first half, when Wisconsin bricked a huge array of wide open threes. I got a couple responses about how it was better to give up wide open threes than to let Nigel Hayes eat in the paint, with one guy offering up Hayes's shot chart as evidence. Evidence of what, though?

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Hayes isn't actually an efficient offensive player this year in any way except one: he gets to the line a lot. He's suffered with the extra usage heaped on him in the absence of Dekker and Kaminsky; Wisconsin has a lot of bad possessions and Hayes ends up taking a lot of 15-footers as a result. He's good at those, which is like being good at writing about Rutgers sports.

As a whole, Wisconsin is decent at threes (4th in the league) and mediocre at twos (7th). They are not a team that you should be constantly doubling until they get a launch off. This is what Michigan did in the first half; they got lucky. So I got into a fight about that despite the fact that Hayes wasn't even taking the open threes.

Later, I expressed further frustration at Michigan's defense and got an array of FIRE HIS ASS and PATHETIC replies. I have only myself to blame.

-------------------------------------------

But it's true, and playing Wisconsin is designed to highlight everyone's frustration with this year's basketball team. At halftime I predicted a ten point Wisconsin win in our slack channel, and there was grunting agreement. UMHoops felt the same way:

It was, with Wisconsin staking itself to a seven point lead by hitting six straight shots. The threes versus twos discussion became moot as Michigan failed to defend either well. Then you look over at Wisconsin's collection of athletes. Wisconsin features a guy Mark Donnal wrecked in high school and a variety of gentlemen who seem like ringers grabbed from the Plattville YMCA. Their main post is a freshman. They are 18th in defensive efficiency.

It's pretty tough not to be sour at Beilein after watching a bunch of try-hard types with excellent organization stifle Michigan. It's pretty tough not to be sour when Vitto Brown, the guy that Donnal worked in high school, goes 4/6 from three on six uncontested looks.

I don't expect Michigan to be actually good at defense for a lot of different reasons, but there's a difference between Michigan's usual meh and this. The trend is worrying. Defensive efficiency in the Beilein era:

  • 2008: 100th
  • 2009: 69th
  • 2010: 58th
  • 2011: 37th
  • 2012: 61st
  • 2013: 48th
  • 2014: 109th
  • 2015: 107th
  • 2016: 145th

This is the third straight year of a triple-digit ranking. While you may remember things as "not good" even when the larger picture was much prettier, this is a whole new era of ineptness only matched by Beilein's first team of castoffs and runaways. This year's team is in fact considerably worse despite than those guys despite having a reasonable amount of experience. For the first time in a while Michigan doesn't have a freshman playing major minutes; for the first time in a while they've crawled out of the 300s in Kenpom's experience stat. This was the first year in a while you could reasonably expect year to year improvement, and yet.

The reason that the world expected Wisconsin to pull away in the second half is because they had a guy where Michigan was when their shots went up and Michigan did not do this. There is no reason for this based on the guys on the court. That is what's scary about this team and those down the road: something appears to have left the program over the last three years. The 2014 team managed to paper over it with Nik Stauskas and his merry band; Michigan outfits that do not have the ability to finish #1 in offensive efficiency have not found a plan B.

This is in no way a plea to fire anybody. Michigan has lost an NBA first round pick to injury each of the last three years, along with their starting PG last year and backup PG this year. If a Tom Izzo player gets a hangnail it gets a special edition of SportsCenter on which Izzo weeps and quavers; Michigan has suffered the insult of injury stoically.

But there's no reason that losing Caris Levert would send the defense into a tailspin. There's no reason that Ricky Doyle should go from promising freshman to afterthought in a year. There's no reason that Michigan should find itself 11th in defense in a league featuring luminaries like Penn State, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Illinois. This is our concern, dude.

Bullets

I mean like whatever. I am super not into this basketball team for the reasons detailed above, which I why I haven't written about it much. Whatever motive force was behind the back to back elite eight teams left the building with Stauskas and has not given a hint of a return.

I would not be surprised to see a coaching shakeup after the year. Beilein did it once before, and since he's clearly not going to be the guy who fixes the defense he's got to get someone in who can give it a shot.

Bright spots? Michigan had a bunch of tight curl screen action that we hadn't seen much of before that was effective; they also made a number of interior passes to their bigs in situations they had not attempted much previously. Those resulted in a few turnovers but also a number of shots at the rim that were generally effective.

I wonder how much of the problem with the offense is that there aren't many good passers on the team. MAAR and Irvin are getting better but had to come up from absolutely zero assists; Walton is so bad inside the arc that there's not much reason to overplay him. This is no longer a bright spot. Sorry.

I'm shocked. Jon Crispin does not like dabbing.

Comments

CorkyCole

February 29th, 2016 at 1:45 PM ^

If Beilein wasn't "interested" in defense then he wouldn't be talking about it consistently in his pressers.  The problem is that defense is not his forte. All head coaches have strengths, and that all coaches hire assistants to help coach up their team (especially in areas that they are not strong in). Do you think year 1 of Harbaugh would have been as effective if he didn't have a Greg Jackson, Greg Mattison, Jedd Fisch to help coach?

Invest in your assistant staff and you will see improvements. Beilein is an offensive genius - everyone who has a meaningful foot in the game knows this fact. He is not known as a defensive guru, and hiring a top of the line assistant who can work on Beilein's weaknesses on defense could provide a major benefit to this team. All you have to do is be willing to let your coaches coach and not pretend that you know everything when in fact you do not. Good coaches know how to do that.

poppinfresh

February 29th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^

short summary: assistants not the problem with defensive coaching my birdie near the bball team says that the assistants are definitely looking to leave after the season. they (these friend's words, referring to assistants) acknowledge Beileins lack of emphasis on defense in practice and during game situations (case and point you will never seen beilein call a timeout after a horrible defensive possession and rip someone ala Izzo). Rebounding isn't practiced as much as fundamentals and the (practice) emphasis throughout the season is rarely adjusted day to day even after multiple loses due to rebounding/defense (despite being a measured statistic in the case of rebounding) Part of it is athleticism and part of it its will. Both of these things (whether defensively or rebounding related) tie into recruiting. beilein has made it a point to stay away from one and two year guys (ok battle, langford, brown) or has had no success. I won't even call his kids country club/soft players because I know they play hard, but beilein rarely adapts his system to suit talent. Xavier and MSU could very well be in the final four and the championship game, how many of those kids were in state kids/people we lose out on? Beilein would never in a million years recruit a guy like Sumner, but its that type of physicality and player that we desperately need but won't get either because kids don't want to play JB's style or JB isn't recruiting that kind of guy (or both from what my buddy says) it's tough because JB has taken us to a better place and if we never recruit like other teams maybe its a catch 22. Wisconson though lost a ton of NBA talent from last year and beat us soundly last night. They never miss the tourney and don't have Top Shelf talent. We should strive to live into this reality at a minimum best player hurt or not. And games against top teams should not have have 4-5 20+ point losses in the same year.

Yard Dog

February 29th, 2016 at 1:36 PM ^

is in order.  The defense has to be addressed.  The development of the bigs has to be fixed. 

 

When you look at the offense, Beilein still has it.  The inside curl game that Brian mentioned clearly had Wisky confused for the better part of the first half.  Why?  Because Beilein saw them cheating the 3 point line and came up with a counter attack.  The guy can still coach offense.

 

The other big issue to me is leadership.  Where is it coming from?  The answer is no one.  There is not a player in the rotation that steps up and confronts the rest when they are not playing well.  You'd hope that someone with Irvin's experience would step into that role, but it hasn't happened so far.

Still love Beilein, and say that next year is the real litmus test for his career going forward at Michigan.

Bertello NC

February 29th, 2016 at 1:46 PM ^

I feel like Beilein should be given at least another year. I do however think he needs to seriously re-evaluate his staff and his philosophy. To me there is no reason why M cannot bring in more talent at the center and forward positions and have that position be more of a focal point while still operating under Beileins system which is predicated on a lot of shooters on the floor at one time. But where he is struggling is bringing in bigs that cannot stretch the floor which is the reason he recruited most of them to begin with. So when their shooting doesn't pan out or develop you're left with an un-athletic, weak player who is asked to do something he's not designed to do(rebound, block shots, defend the rim, score when inside 5ft of the bucket, toughness) all those things are extremely important parts of the game and they seem to be an afterthought for this staff. That has to change IMO. They need a coach on this staff who has ability to develop and coach post players. Then there shouldn't be a reason a higher profile center recruit wouldn't want to be at M. You have a lot of shooters who can space the paint out which would give a low post scorer room to operate. Guys like Poeltl from Utah, Zimmerman from unlv and others would be enticed about playing in this system. But without an assistant who has experience and a knack for developing centers and forwards coupled with how Beilein ignores that part of the game players of that nature look elsewhere. Maybe Teske can be that guy. I'm worried that a guy like Austin Davis will take forever to turn into anything substantial. He looks like a poor mans Ricky Doyle to me.
That being said I would think and hope that this team will be better next year. Another year of development for guys like Wilson, Doyle, Wanger, and even donnal. But there needs to be more focus and coaching in terms low post play. These guys need to learn how to play with their backs to the basket. It helps you become a more well balanced team. Develop a variety of moves and have that option to dump it down low and kick it out to a shooter or cutter if nothing is there or you're doubled up. Beilein and Jordan do a good job with the guards now they just need someone on staff who brings the other half of the game along. Defense needs to be upgraded as well if they want to sniff the tournament this year and even into next year.



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champswest

February 29th, 2016 at 2:20 PM ^

turn into anything substantial. He looks like a poor mans Ricky Doyle to me."

Have you seen Davis play? I have not, but recent reports say that he doesn't have good hands, he has great hands. He can also shoot the three. And, he has a 4.0+ grade point averge and isn't afraid of hard work. My only concern is the level of competition that he has experienced and how quickly he can adjust to the upgrade. 

JCV16

February 29th, 2016 at 3:01 PM ^

he is slow, plodding, unathletic, and lacking in skill. Even with his new weight loss. And when he comes to michigan, he will get questionable-at-best big man coaching and be utilized for nothing more than setting screens and catching passes that look increasingly like hail marys. He get dominated inside by real big ten centers.  And he will not actually make 3's, even though he made them in high school. 

In other words, another Ricky Doyle. 

 

 

JCV16

February 29th, 2016 at 3:01 PM ^

he is slow, plodding, unathletic, and lacking in skill. Even with his new weight loss. And when he comes to michigan, he will get questionable-at-best big man coaching and be utilized for nothing more than setting screens and catching passes that look increasingly like hail marys. He get dominated inside by real big ten centers.  And he will not actually make 3's, even though he made them in high school. 

In other words, another Ricky Doyle. 

 

 

Tom_McC

February 29th, 2016 at 1:49 PM ^

Pretty spot on Brian. There is something missing with this group.  Aside from all that you mentioned, I just don't think Walton and Irvin know how to lead.  I'm not sure Caris and Spike were going to be great at being leaders but I do know they would be better than Zak and Derrick.  They both are pretty good 'Robins' but I don't know if they can be 'Batmen'.

I still think, like you mentioned, the loss of Caris and to a lesser degree Spike has screwed this team way more than what is being said publically.  I mean, if you would have told me at the beginning of Novemeber that Caris would only play one full BT game and Spike would play zero and UM would still basically control its own destiny for a Tourney bid, I probably would have not believed it.

Another thing for me is this team just isn't very inspiring.  Even last year, despite the defensive issues, there was more fire and edge to the team.  This year, it just seems like there is something missing from an consistent energy perspective.  It's been a tough team to watch and enjoy. 

Simon

February 29th, 2016 at 2:09 PM ^

There was a perfect example late in the game of one of the things that ails this team.  With Nigel Hayes having the ball in the post, Derrick Walton started to sag below to the foul line to play "help" defense, giving his man Bronson Koenig some space.  As he sagged to the free throw line to "help" he was very uncommittal, almost like he was looking for a moment to go for a steal. That moment didn't come, Hayes past out to Koenig, who had ample room for his look which he buried to up the margin.

The moral of this story is they seem to have no organization around help defense.  Walton needs to commit one way or the other, either he needs to double and force the kick out, thus hopefully signalling to the rest of the defense to start rotating, or he needs stay on their best three point shooter and hope that Hayes misses his open look.  He did neither.  This happens ALL the time.

 

Wolvie3758

February 29th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^

THE  most dissapointing team in the Belien era..At least those early teams played with heart and intensity and emotion and were HUNGRY...This team..no emotion no intensity just going thru the motions with inept play from its supposed stars...Irvin, Walton and Robinson continue to dissapoint

brianntb

February 29th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^

All those negs I got for stating that we at least ought to be able to publicly state that Beilein is just good, not great, and that Michigan deserves a great coach. 

You're welcome. 

S.G. Rice

February 29th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^

I'm not sure that this team has even a single league average defender. and the constant breakdowns - both 1-on-1 and more organically - are tremendously frustrating.  It's hard to win when you can't get stops no matter how efficient the offense is and let's be honest, the offense has bogged down plenty this year.

I don't really understand anyone seriously suggesting firing Coach Bielien though.

autodrip4-1968

February 29th, 2016 at 3:17 PM ^

Too much mangroving (complaining) going on. Mangroving, how about that word for the Mgoblog vocabulary. Facilities so what. Players just want a good court, friendly rims and good sights. I don't believe the talent level argument. There's a good amount of it and Michigan has some of it. Offensive basketball at the college level is boring to watch for the most part. Oh we need to run our set's says the coach. Player's are too confined by micro managed schemes. Coaches make it too complicated. If you have an open shot you take it. One guy back everybody else to the board. The game needs to be played without the micro managed regulating. 

alum96

February 29th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^

Like Brian I have become sort of immune to this basketball team and have apathy towards it.  This has not been a recent development.  With the lack of offensive efficiency all the things I like about sports players - grit, ferociousness, "compete", defense are lacking watching this team.  So I find little joy in how they play so I don't watch large portions of games anymore.  I'd rather watch a Novak type team which will end with a similar record but have guys like...well Novak out there.

What galls me about this team is lack of development year over year and within the year.  Outside of 1 player there is no development unless you squint in maize glasses.  Mark Donnal.  Where are the Beilein bumps?  All I see are Beilein regressions.

  • Zak Irvin took a big step last year vs the prior year.  But he is basically the same player as last year.  I give him the benefit of the doubt because he lost much of his summer ot injury.
  • Derrick Walton is just a guy to me.  Monte Morris is a far superior floor general.  Walton is plus at nothing but rebounding.  And I dont know if that is because he is a good rebounder or the way the team is set up - a guy like Burke looked like a plus rebounder too but that is because it seems like we try to tie up big guys and then let our guards rebound.  But whatever - the team does not run efficiently with him which is the #1 part of being a PG.  He has not improved from last year - he is the same guy.
  • Aubrey Dawkins took a huge step back.  Last February he looked like a potential breakout player - a Caris 2.0 type.  He came back as a guy disinterested in defense, and lacking intensity.  He looks like a guy who we will read next September "I thought I had made it and didnt put in the work over the summer".  So not only progressession but regression. 
  • MAAR made some progression but has holes in his game.  But not massive progression.
  • Kam Chartman is a complete bust at this time.  Guys his ranking are expected to be debating whether to go to the NBA after 2 years, not contemplating whether he will be a role player in his year 3 - or even be at Michigan next year.  No progression (or for Maize colored glasses folks small progression from a floor buried 40 feet underground his freshman year)
  • Big guys take time to develop but Doyle at least looked like a promising bruiser last year - he has regressed.  There is nothing added to his game.  He looks slower, and with worse hands.
  • Big guys take time but DJ Wilson is a total non factor.  He looked lost last year and he looks just a bit less lost this year.  I dont see this ohh ahh athleticism.  Guys with his body frame and supposed skill are guys who pop in their second year all across college basketball.  He is just a bench guy who you hope the other team doesnt go on a 14-2 run agains when he is in.
  • DRob does not have a valid year over year comparison since he was at another level of bball last year but he has in year progression and it is negative.  Now I doubt that is all on him - teams focus on him now and he hasnt handled it well.

 

So I count 1 major advancement in Donnal and 1 major regression in Dawkins and a lot of ho hum players ala Chatman, WIlson, Doyle who have added little to nothing to their game with all 3 not starting from a very high level of play to begin with - hence it should have been easy to add to their game.

So how much is this on the coaching and how much on the players?  I refuse to believe Jordan and Beilein became dummies overnight so at some point its the players who have not progressed.   And I am on the fire Bacari train because I have seen little out of him outside of Morgan in back half of his senior year - the same Morgan who was stuck to the bench much of his life as a junior - and then some development in Mitch....but lo and behold Donnal suddenly became a player.  So I don't know.

People blame Caris injury but when Caris played we lose to Xavier and SMU and UConn types.  We played the same sad defense we played for years, with the same lack of athleticism up front, with the same being outrebounded and punked by physically tougher athletes.  Caris didnt change that - we just played more hero ball with Caris.

Looking at that list above, forget next year but 2 years from now if Xavier Simpson is not Trey Burke as a freshman this is going to be a bottom third team.  And next year is going to be much of the same as this.  So more groundhog day.  I guess our great hope if Mark Donnal as a senior turns into Matt Costello as a senior.  And Moe turns into a star over the summer.

username03

February 29th, 2016 at 8:59 PM ^

Where is Wagner going to play next year? He is not a wing so it can't be at the four. Are you really suggesting that Wagner will be ready next year to hold his own as the lone big on the floor? In big ten play? This is part of the problem here, they keep recruiting guys who play positions that don't exist in this system. 2 years from now Wagner MIGHT be ready to play the 5 at Michigan and since they won't play him at the 4, i don't know why they bothered. See also Wilson, Chatman, Beilfedlt,really Donnal too etc. etc.

PeteM

February 29th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^

I'm a Beilein fan, and think that the progress he made from 2008-2014 was impressive, but agree with Brian that this team can be hard to watch sometimes.  Last year, at least, was so low on talent after losing Walton and Levert that even moral victories like staying close with Wisconin in the Big Ten tournament seemed like huge achivements.  My two observations on this team is that I don't see any visible leadership outside of Walton and, perhaps this is related, we lose focus at the worst possible times. 

I do think that Spike was a hug loss.  He isn't as talented as Levert, obviously, and has limitations on defense, but can handle the ball, pass and shoot, and could give Walton a needed break now and then.  Walton looks exhausted at the end of games.

I agree that something needs to change.  I'll be curious if Beilein shakes up his staff.  For the rest of this year, I'd like to see some juggling of the lineup.  Let Dawkins start ahead of Robinson perhaps.  Give Chatman some minutes.  Maybe let Doyle in earlier and for longer streches.  I 'm not saying these guys are better than the starters, but I feel like at this point a little random experimentation can't hurt.

trueblueintexas

February 29th, 2016 at 3:38 PM ^

I was recently giving my 4 year old the "being a fan through thick and thin" talk. And then I realized while I was watching the game Sunday night that I was spending more time looking stuff up on my iPad than I was watching the game. And that is why I am so frustrated with this team.  I can't stand watching players make repeated mistakes, and that is exactly what this team does. 

Offense & defense. It doesn't matter. Irvin turing it over before the half on a designed play. Walton running three horrible fast breaks that should have ended in easy layups and didn't. Big's repeatedly losing body position on their man. Players repeatedly rotating late. Repeatefly getting blown past because they can't simply stay in front of their man. The list goes on and on and the team gets more frustrating to watch as the season wears on.

Rosie

February 29th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^

The issue seems painfully obvious to me.  The team is soft.  I'm pretty sure I recall Beilein mentioning that, in terms of recruiting, he looks for kids that will "fit" well with the current culture.  I think the current "culture" is similar to a book club.  I understand that Michigan is difficult academically and that he wants "good" kids, but these guys just seem completely incapable of playing with grit and nastiness.  I like guys that are good people off the court.  However, to play at this level against this kind of competition, you need to have at least a couple of guys out there trying to damage their opponents physically and mentally.  People that want to humiliate their competition and are willing to retaliate to a hard foul with a flagrant foul that draws blood.  I mean, doesn't Donnal just look soft?  Like he would run like hell from a fight?  I don't think there is a team in the country that is worried about being out "muscled" by this team.  We need a Bill Laimbeer pronto.    

GoBlueInIowa

February 29th, 2016 at 5:26 PM ^

Wonder how different things would have been if it was known Jan 1 that Caris was gone for the year. If someone would have stepped up and grabbed the alpha dog role right away. Sometimes when it is not known when the star is coming back, players subconsciously sit back waiting for the dog to return.



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JJJ

February 29th, 2016 at 7:44 PM ^

When is the last time coach B let someone foul out? I get so mad when he benches someone like Donnel in this game or Burke in the championship game!!!

Owosso wolverine

February 29th, 2016 at 8:05 PM ^

Bicari has to be held accountable for the bigs regressing year after year and his inability to recruit ! Beilein letting 10-0
Run happen all the time and not using a timeout is bull too ! He has to lead the nation in timeouts not used in a game

adcough

February 29th, 2016 at 9:40 PM ^

i hope the athletic department notices the trajectory, which looks awful and very unlikley to get better since you don't have Mcdonald's all americans waiting in the wings. that is why JB should be on the hot seat. i think Brian was too easy on coach