Michigan made a significant leap in the Pairwise last week, moving up from #13 to #10 after this past weekend's action, thanks in large part to their two-game sweep over Notre Dame. That advanced them to the B1G Tournament's semifinal game this Saturday at Minnesota. Michigan's victories, combined with some more help from teams included in last week's rooting guide, have set them up in favorable position. Michigan isn't 100% into the NCAA Hockey Tournament, but they are very close thanks to the results from last weekend. Still, there is plenty on the table and always the possibility of chaos, something like three autobids that bumps the threshold down to #13 and a loss to the Gophers could make things a bit more tenuous. You never know. As always, it will be worth following this weekend's games. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The master Pairwise table and the rooting guide]

 

Pairwise Comparison Ratings - As of 3/15/24  

 

The Big Ten Tournament kicked off last weekend, with Michigan winning two nailbiters over Notre Dame at Yost. Their opponent for Saturday's semifinal, the Minnesota Golden Gophers, swept Penn State last weekend. Minnesota won the first game fairly handily before toppling the Nittany Lions with a late goal in the third period of Game 2 to win 3-2. The shocker of the weekend happened in Madison, where the 7th place Ohio State Buckeyes upset the Wisconsin Badgers, winning two out of three to earn themselves a trip to East Lansing to face Michigan State in the other Big Ten semifinal. Both games will be shown on Big Ten Network this Saturday, with the OSU-MSU game starting at 6:30pm, followed by Michigan at Minnesota at 9:00pm.  

 

Big Ten Tournament Bracket

 

 

This Weekend's Games of Significance - Rooting Guide

Note: (PW#) = Current Pairwise Ranking. All times listed are Eastern Time Zone

Big Ten Games (Conference Tournament - Semifinal)

Saturday - Ohio State (PW #28) at Michigan State (PW #5) - 6:30pm - Big Ten Network

On paper, this game looks to be a mismatch but so did last weekend's Ohio State series in Wisconsin. Ohio State has been a pain in the side of the Badgers repeatedly this season and they managed to pull off the upset. The Buckeyes were chum for the rest of the Big Ten sharks this season until something seemed to click for them in mid-February, when they swept a home series from Wisconsin and have gone 5-4 in the conference since then. One of those wins was a convincing 6-2 victory over MSU in East Lansing on February 23rd. The effects of an OSU win would hardly impact Michigan in the way of Pairwise, but if OSU could pull out a win followed by Michigan defeating Minnesota, that would set up the Big Ten Championship Game next week at Yost, which is more desirable than going to Munn. It's hard to believe I'm saying this two weeks in a row but go Ohio State! O-H-I-O!! (That just doesn’t feel right!)  

 

NCHC Games (Conference Tournament - Quarterfinal)

Friday - Omaha (PW #12) at Colorado College (PW #11) - 9:00pm - NCHC.TV

Saturday - Omaha (PW #12) at Colorado College (PW #11) - 8:00pm - NCHC.TV

Sunday - Omaha (PW #12) at Colorado College (PW #11) - 8:00pm - NCHC.TV (if necessary)

Omaha has been on a heater as of late, winning 11 of their past 12 games including a two game sweep over Colorado College in late February. That has bolstered UNO's pursuit of an NCAA Tournament bid, shooting all the way up to 12th in Pairwise. Now they get a matchup with the team one slot above them in the Pairwise, the Colorado College Tigers and Old Friend Kris Mayotte (a Mel Pearson assistant). The Tigers have been no slouch either, as they've gone 5-2-2 in their past 9 games. It doesn't really matter to Michigan which team wins, but the best outcome is a sweep in either direction, so that only one team has an opportunity to gain in RPI. So, take your pick. 

 

Friday - Western Michigan (PW #13) at St. Cloud State (PW #16) - 8:30pm - NCHC.TV

Saturday - Western Michigan (PW #13) at St. Cloud State (PW #16) - 7:00pm - NCHC.TV

Sunday - Western Michigan (PW #13) at St. Cloud State (PW #16) - 7:00pm - NCHC.TV (if necessary)

With the Pairwise being as close as it is, getting some breathing room from the teams behind Michigan would be helpful. With that said, the best outcome in this series would be St. Cloud taking the series in three games, knocking Western down more pegs (as they are higher in PWR) but not giving St. Cloud the ammo to move up that a sweep would. Neither of these teams come into the NCHC Tournament brimming with confidence, as St. Cloud has lost four in a row and five of their past six while Western Michigan is 3-3 in their past 6 games, but that includes two wins last week over the anemic Miami RedHawks. The Broncos have been less good as of late against real teams. The Huskies (not 'Clouds' as David refers to them!) have taken 3 of 4 games this year against Western with the Broncos only win coming in OT near the end of February. Season is on the line as the loser of this series is likely eliminated from NCAA Tournament contention but a St. Cloud win in three games could put both in jeopardy.  

 

Hockey East Games (Conference Tournament - Quarterfinal)

Saturday - Massachusetts (PW #15) at Providence (PW #14) - 4:00pm - ESPN+

If you're planning on sitting on the couch to watch the Big Ten hockey doubleheader on Saturday, you might want to tune in before those games to catch this battle. Unlike the NCHC or ECAC, the Hockey East quarterfinals are merely a single game, so this one is for all the marbles. The team who loses this game will also more than likely see their season end, as their chances at getting an 'at-large' bid for the NCAA Tournament will be negligible at best. This will be the 3rd time they play each other this season, with UMass winning the previous two games just before Thanksgiving in Providence 3-2 and 2-1 in OT. Both teams have been hovering around the .500 mark during their past 10 games with the Minutemen going 5-5 and the Friars also going 5-5, with 2 of those wins being in a shoot-out. Hard to tell who is going to win and if those previous matchups are any indicator, this one will be close. It doesn't matter who wins to Michigan, since their Pairwise ranks are so similar... take your pick again. 

 

ECAC Games (Conference Tournament Quarterfinals) 

Friday - Rensselaer (aka - RPI) (PW #54) at Quinnipiac (PW #8) - 7:00 pm - ESPN+ 

Saturday - Rensselaer (aka - RPI) (PW #54) at Quinnipiac (PW #8) - 7:00 pm - ESPN+

Sunday - Rensselaer (aka - RPI) (PW #54) at Quinnipiac (PW #8) - 4:00 pm - ESPN+ (if necessary)

If Michigan is to continue their ascent in the Pairwise (will not be easy), they will need significant help and RPI could be the source of that support. With no chance of getting to the NCAA Tournament by an 'at-large' bid and only a slight chance of winning the ECAC Tournament, RPI comes in as a massive underdog against the defending NCAA champion Bobcats. RPI was also the underdog last week when they knocked off Clarkson, who was #35 in Pairwise, in their one game first round matchup. Quinnipiac defeated RPI twice already this season, but if the Engineers can steal one game in this series it will be a huge victory for them and the Wolverines. Two wins for RPI would be even better, even if it is a pipe dream.