Mailbag: Pepcat Blah, Peters Challenge, Blueshirting, Western Existential Crisis Comment Count

Brian

Pepcat sadness.

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infrequent [Fuller]

Why did Peppers seem to disappoint on offense this season in the big games? Lack of creativity? Poor execution on his part, maybe from limited reps? OL play? Cosmic misfortune?

There are many reasons.

  • Defenses tended to absurdly over-focus on him when he entered the game. This resulted in a bunch of plays where his presence as a decoy created huge chunks for guys not named Peppers.
  • Michigan's read option package was basic. Teams started scrape exchanging against it and Michigan did not have a response to it. This resulted in a number of plays that looked like bad reads but were in fact RPS minuses. It probably would have been more effective to just single-wing, or use Peppers as a tailback.
  • He got some bad edge blocking from tight ends.
  • Cosmic misfortune always plays a role.

In retrospect the QB package should have been dumped midseason, probably after Illinois shut it down, and Michigan should have moved on to something else. They've been good at doing this so far under Harbaugh—fullback traps fell out of the offense this year—but not so here.

The Pepcat package featured something every high schooler is relentlessly drilled on these days: defending a crazy athlete QB. Michigan is not a spread option team. They are strictly dilettantes in that department. So you had a primitive attempt at spread option going up against the last ten years of defensive advancements against it. That is ceased working after a shock and awe period isn't a surprise.

Peters chatter, QB competition

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daddy needs a new Andrew Luck [Fuller]

Brian,

There never seemed to be much insider chatter floating around this year about how Peters was performing in practice. Obviously last year the big chatter was that, O'Korn was out performing Rudock. Question 1.)  Do we know anything about how he performed this fall in practice?

Secondly, I for one was pleasantly surprised with Speight's performance this year and I believe exceeded what many's expectations were for him.

That being said -

Question 2.) Do you anticipate any serious competition next year between a Redshirt Peters and Speight for the starting gig?

Go Blue,
Brewandbluesaturdays

After a productive spring, Peters chatter went to zero in fall camp. You shouldn't read anything into that, though. O'Korn got talked up last year because Rudock was so bad early and there was nobody else to talk about except Shane Morris, who was not a viable target for chatter after last year's Minnesota game.

Michigan had determined it was going to redshirt Peters, he got put on the scout team, and Speight played well enough that backup talk was restricted to a few off weeks. O'Korn's existence, meanwhile, kept what backup chatter existed focused on him until Indiana.

I do expect a serious QB competition this offseason. By "serious" I mean "there is at least a 20% chance someone not named Speight is the starting QB." Brandon Peters is extremely good and should eat up ground quickly since he was not one of those QB guru guys. Speight had a good sophomore season but remains someone else's QB that Harbaugh is making do with, and we saw him switch horses midstream in San Francisco. Speight's weak performance against Iowa and turnovers against OSU leave the door open for a challenger.

I'd be surprised if Peters passed Speight. I would not be shocked.

[After the JUMP: blueshirting, sartorial discussion, why do anything really I mean seriously]

Blueshirting is fine. It's got "blue" in it. QED.

Hi Brian,

In your latest recruiting round up you briefly described what a blue shirt is. Can you please explain this in more detail, especially if this is something UM is considering.

The consensus seemed to always be taking more than 25 recruits was dirty until you looked into the whole back dating and informed the blog. That made the practice seem OK in my mind. If I know more details on blue shirting, maybe I'll feel better about that, but it has a similar dirty feel.

-mp2

I've never had a problem with teams recruiting a bunch of players as long as they have the room. Michigan has room.

They're in an unusual position because they had back to back years of 17 and 14 recruits as the Hoke era spluttered to a disastrous finish. That led to a big class last year, and there's still a ton of room this year since Michigan has lost a number of those guys. Peppers (probably), Canteen, Ferns, Pallante, and O'Neill are gone from the 2014 class; Brian Cole and Andrew David are already gone from 2015.

So Michigan's in a spot where they can legitimately add so many recruits that they outstrip the NCAA-mandated letter of intent count of 25. I'm still unclear on who counts and who doesn't but with Hawkins and Dytarious Johnson not making it in last year Michigan had 27 initial counters and backdated 7. (Ahmir Mitchell may or may not count but it doesn't really matter for our purposes.) Therefore they can backdate five guys this year and sign a total of 30.

Blueshirting is a way around the LOI cap. "Unrecruited" walk-ons can show up in fall camp and get a scholarship without being an "initial counter." In practice this means the recruit doesn't take an official and doesn't sign a LOI. I've been told that Michigan might not have to execute this maneuver for reasons I don't quite get because I'm not in NCAA compliance, but if they do there's nothing nefarious about it. Kid gets a scholarship immediately, as he was promised.

This is a very important sartorial discussion.

I’m wondering why no one has commented on Harbaugh’s pants at State. He upgraded to plain front last year – midway through the season. Though, he still did wear the pleats occasionally. It was reported that he was going to wear Jordan brand Khakis this year, and I’m curious whether what we saw was just that on Saturday. They had a very different cut … more like Jeans. For someone who doesn’t deviate from the norm, I thought it was pretty odd – and actually quite of an upgrade (to go with his retro glasses). Will this be the new look? Or did he forget his pants and send an assistant to go find anything that looked khaki.

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UM.is.my.home

I don't know why nobody has commented on Harbaugh's khakis. Seriously. This fanbase comments on everything else, several times in a row. You'd think a changeup like this would get at least one thread.

What's the point of Western?

Hey Brian,

I have been enjoying Western's perfect regular season this year and the MAC school taking its star turn in the national spotlight. (BTW, I can't help but wonder if Western's mascot has always looked as stoned as the one that appeared on College Gameday a few weeks ago?) Western never seriously entered into the College Football Playoff conversation, and I can understand the conventional wisdom behind that being the top MAC school would more than likely never be more than a middling contender in a Power 5 school. Fair enough. In that case why even bother considering the second-tier conferences for the CFP? Western did everything it could this season to win the national title but couldn't even come close to breaking through even against this year's highly imperfect field of CFP competition. So what's the point? Why bother having a 128-team FBS if roughly half of them have no shot of winning the national championship?

Keep up the good work,
Jon

It is possible for a team in the bottom half of D-I conferences to put themselves in the playoff conversation. They just have to beat Oklahoma. Western did not do this. They beat Northwestern and Illinois and then played a MAC schedule. An undefeated Houston with wins over Oklahoma and Louisville is at least in the conversation and maybe/probably in over Washington.

"What's the point?" is not the kind of question that got asked before there was a playoff. The point is to win the games that are put in front of you. The point of adding a G5 team to the New Year's Six is to forestall antitrust legislation. The point of having an 128 team FBS is... uh... ask Georgia State?

If you're asking me why an Appalachian State would rather be a D-I school that aspires to the Sponsor That Didn't Pay Us So We're Not Calling It That Bowl instead of battling NDSU annually for national championships, I have no earthly idea. The MAC has been D-I forever and knows nobody will ever win a national title out of that league, which is fine, I guess. Just enjoy the WMU season for what it is. I bet Bronco fans would rather take on Wisconsin than Alabama, anyway.

Comments

ca_prophet

December 12th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^

I haven't seen a Michigan QB with that kind of pocket presence since Tom Brady. Knowing exactly how long you can hold the ball and reliably moving within the pocket to the safe spot is a subtle skill, but it makes your offensive line look a lot better. One of the reasons our mediocre OL performance didn't cost us more is because our QB covered their weaknesses with his strengths. Football Outsiders has a little blurb about their individual statistics. Paraphrasing, they point out that when they say Tom Brady had 207 DVOA, they really mean that "Tom Brady, protected by the Patriots OL and throwing passes to Gronkowski while running plays designed by Belichek, had 207 DVOA". So it is with us - it might be that the QB trait that best corresponds with success for us next year is not accuracy or quick feet, but pocket presence. Similarly, there is an entire sub-discipline in Kendo called iajutsu - the art of rapidly drawing your sword and incorporating the draw into the strike. The tagline I have heard is "If you can't get your sword out in time, there will be no need for any of the rest." If you can't stay upright behind this OL, it won't matter if you've got a laser-guided rocket launcher for an arm. I will watch next years QB competition with considerable interest. If Spreight comes out on top despite a strong challenge from Peters, it might mean they think he's the best QB for us because he's the one that can stay upright long enough to make a play, rather than getting snowed under behind a non-elite OL. If Peters wins, it might mean our OL is good enough that pocket presence is not as important as everything else.

lhglrkwg

December 12th, 2016 at 2:07 PM ^

Speight was pretty solid and pretty accurate for much of that game. If the running game is able to help him one bit, his performance is enough to win the game for us. The INTs were obviously sad but when there's no running game, an abnormal amount of pressure is put on Speight to be perfect. I think he's going to be very, very good next year

MGoBlueMyself

December 13th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^

Amen brother. I actually would have preferred JH lean on him more late in the OSU game rather than try and run the ball. Also, put the ball in his hands and go for 2 in OT after that stud TD pass he threw. Man, could this kid be 'on' for a first year starter. He had some "eek" moments and games, which hurt, but I felt so comfortable with him throwing the ball for most of the year. 

mastodon

December 12th, 2016 at 2:02 PM ^

Peters starts next year. Speight did OK, and can improve some, but I just don't think he's got that clutch factor in him. Missed reads, inconsistent long ball, costly TOs. I get a good vibe from Peters in general. He seems to have a better set of tools. We needed more than just a game manager this season, and really didn't even get that when we really needed it. Even a little bit more QB-clutch this year, and we're CFP bound. Obviously other areas of improvement exist - not laying it all on Speight - but QB does have the most impact.

Maynard

December 12th, 2016 at 2:09 PM ^

Speight will be the starter. Peters will be a backup and get some game action. He was clearly the guy with better leadership abilities this year and the coaches saw that. He isn't just a game manager as you say. He made a lot of plays this year just by virtue of a calm pocket presence.

UMfan21

December 12th, 2016 at 2:11 PM ^

I wonder if Peppers doesn't have the best hands for catching.  I remember the ways we utilized Woodson.  Yes, often times it was on end arounds or reverses.  But, by the end of 1997, he was also running routes as a WR and making plays. 

Given Peppers "burst" I would think he's good enough to run routes, so it must be his hands holding him back?  I would think he would have an easier time catching a slant or a WR screen in space where he only has 2 guys to beat.  When he is lined up as a Pepcat or takes a snap on a reverse he's got 8+ guys in the box who are in range to make plays.

I kept waiting for a pass to Peppers in space and it never happened.  That was a big disappointment for me.

True Blue in CO

December 12th, 2016 at 3:08 PM ^

2017 QB - An experienced Speight behind a newly developing OLine.

2018 QB - Peters with a solid OLine and great RBs and receivers.

2019 - Peters in a truly remarkable year as Michigan is Top5 in offense and defense. Peters leaves early for NFL.

2020 and 2021 - McCaffery's teams.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Vasav

December 12th, 2016 at 11:06 PM ^

This blog has spoiled me. After two references to Cannae earlier this season, I saw "Western Existential Crisis" and was almost certain it would be a reference to Adrianople, or Yarmouk. The random throwaway statements about catastrophic Roman military defeats are now something I look for. Throw me a bone, Brian.

ricosuave

December 13th, 2016 at 10:03 AM ^

As mentioned, you knew what was coming when he was in the Pepcat.  He needed to be used beyond that formation and play.  INuff said.

ricosuave

December 13th, 2016 at 10:03 AM ^

As mentioned, you knew what was coming when he was in the Pepcat.  He needed to be used beyond that formation and play.  INuff said.