Hoops Recruiting Finally Has A Live Evaluation Period
Last Friday marked the first time in nearly two years that college coaches were able to evaluate HS prospects in person due to the health crisis. The Wolverine staff dispersed to various locations throughout the country to view several offers/targets and undoubtedly identify new talent. As such, I made stops in the DMV-area and New Jersey to get updated evals and the latest intel.
Guards
2022 Dug McDaniel won the race to commit when he verbally committed to Michigan on his official visit last week. And with that, the pursuit of 2022 guards has effectively ended with Jett Howard a lock to be his backcourt mate in the class.
I was excited to see McDaniel in action for an updated look against legit competition when Paul VI Catholic squared off against a loaded DeMatha Catholic team (although not quite as potent as usual) in the marquee game on Friday night. I'm generally big on evaluating prospects against high-end competition (oversimplified translation = legit size + length + athleticism), because those settings most closely replicate a college basketball environment.
I'll go more in-depth in the upcoming Hello Post, but it was a mixed bag for the most part. Let's start with the good. Dug looked great as a playmaker for others that created easy looks in ballscreen action and with dribble penetration as seen below.
[Hit THE JUMP for more on Dug + updates by position]
On other side of things, McDaniel really struggled as a shooter. He went 1/10 from distance in the game I took in and went 3/19 through two games where boxscores are available.
He didn't do well as a finisher either, which is to be expected given his size. McDaniel simply lacks the size + length to elevate over larger defenders and doesn't have the necessary strength to get into the chest of bigs to negate shotblocking. On the bright side, the Simpson-esque hookshot around the :35 mark in the clip below was very entertaining.
After seeing Dug I made the three hour trip on Saturday to see 2023 target Elmarko Jackson in New Jersey at the Mid Atlantic Shootout. I was extremely impressed with his performance and assistant coach Phil Martelli was there to witness it as well. Film from Jackson's performance against a star-laden Blair Academy team below.
Matched up with top-40 guard Jayden Lemond of Blair, Elmarko was clearly the better looking prospect. He had his way with him in addition to 2022 4-star Otega Oweh on multiple possessions as both a scorer and playmaker.
It appears the other coaches in attendance agree with me, as Elmarko reeled-in offers from Maryland, Minnesota and Miami in the aftermath. As projected, he's in full blow-up mode. You may recall Jackson is the nephew of former Michigan football standout Marlin Jackson and their is absolutely an affinity for the Maize and Blue here. The staff has been in contact over the last week and I really hope an offer is extended in the near future. To be candid, Elmarko is a tier above any of our 2022 guard offers and I don't know if there are more than a handful of guards in the 2023 class better than him.
Wings
I've been beating the Cam Whitmore drum for a while now and this weekend solidified that more than ever. He was absolutely dominant. Easily the best prospect I viewed at DeMatha for DMV Live. I'm not going to get into an in-depth analysis here, as my film above is proof enough. Long story short is that you have an NBA athlete that is starting to shoot the ball at a really high clip from distance and create offense off the bounce. To provide some statistical context, Cam averaged 29ppg, 10reb, 1.3blk on a whopping 69.3% from the field and 53% from distance.
I spoke with Whitmore at length and the contact from Michigan has been minimal recently. That's unfortunate, because Cam is undoubtedly a better prospect than any of the Casey/Smith/Glenn/Rodgers group, and may very well be better than Eric Dailey. North Carolina, Louisville and Alabama have all extended offers since Sunday. For a year now, I've said that ranking him as a backend top-100 type is ludicrous and the only question now is whether he's going to be a top 30ish prospect or firmly in the 5-star range.
On the other hand, we're still on solid ground with top-30 wing AJ Casey. Juwan Howard's first stop of of the live evaluation period was to see the aforementioned Casey in Kentucky, which is telling. The Chicago-area native continued to express his intent to visit Michigan in the video below via Prep Hoops:
The Chicago connection with Juwan Howard definitely seems to be working in Michigan's favor here. AJ seems to have a functional top five of Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Gonzaga and Marquette based on his quotes to 247 over the weekend. The sooner we can get him on campus the better. We're sitting strong at this point and Juwan Howard may be able to shut the door on the competition during an official visit.
Bigs
5-star Dereck Lively continued his rapid ascension over the weekend. I was present in New Jersey and so was Phil Martelli. At a legit 7'1, he was able to connect on threes in pick-and-pop action in addition to his elite rim protection + finishing. The new wrinkle in his game? Lively flashed a back-to-the-basket game with a poor man's dream shake and jumphook over the left shoulder. If he develops into a legit scorer on the block, he's the #1 overall prospect in America regardless of class. His growth rate over the last year has been absolutely incredible.
On the recruiting front I've suggested that Kentucky is the offer that Dereck is waiting for. After Calipari extended a scholarship opportunity on Sunday to kickstart an official visit, Lively wasn't discreet in confirming that he's been waiting on a Wildcat offer. He will release a final seven on Thursday, and I fully expect Michigan to make the cut. And while the Wolverines are definitely in the thick of things here, this has the feel of Michigan being a secondary option in relation to the bluebloods. To have any chance, we need to get him in for an official visit so that Juwan Howard can work his magic.
Top-50 big man Donovan Clingan took an OV to Syracuse last weekend and gave standard fluff reviews in the aftermath. Clingan is playing things really close to the vest. But one thing is obvious, he's going to take his visits before coming to any sort of decision. As I said last week, I think Donovan and family are becoming a bit more open to considering options exclusive of Michigan/UConn. Still, I think it will come down to those two in the end.
Jalen Duren will visit Memphis and Kentucky this week. I'll refrain from providing my usual blurb concerning this recruitment. Based on those visits, we can all see where this is headed.
4-star Tarris Reed will spend his senior year at Link Year Academy and is currently on campus at Ohio State for an official visit after taking an OV to Michigan State. Sam Webb of 247 says the staff is pushing to lock in an OV. Reed is clearly a Plan B option in relation to Lively and Clingan. But as we saw with the PG situation, Juwan Howard operates on a first-come, first-served basis and won't hesitate to compel a commitment where the talent is relatively equal.
The staff continues to monitor fast-rising big Dominick Campbell. While he's only a 3-star to 247, he's recently pulled-in offers from Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Stanford, Minnesota and Oklahoma. As previously mentioned, there are some connections here. Campbell play AAU ball for the Middlesex Magic program that brought us Duncan Robinson.
Finally, the staff has been really impressed with 4-star Yohan Traore this spring and may start to seriously pursue in the coming weeks if things don't look good elsewhere. Since April he's collected offers from the likes of Kansas, Texas, LSU and Texas Tech. It's becoming clear Juwan Howard is lining up Plan B/C options if one of Clingan/Lively don't drop for Michigan by early August.
Cam Whitmore looks like an absolute beast. Matt, is there any reason why Juwan wouldn’t want to be pressing hard for his services? His finishing ability appears to be ELITE, and he seems to have great control with the ball and a decent stroke.
It could be the staff felt we were sitting so strong with the Glenn/Rodgers/Casey trio that it became a zero-sum game in terms of time allocation based on likelihood in securing a commitment.
Personally, I think there is a VERY large gap between Whitmore and the three aforementioned prospects.
It would be nice if there was a way to get Whitmore more on Juwan's radar...
It’s been phenomenal to watch some of these kids add new pieces to their game, seemingly every month. The talent is unreal.
I admit I wanted Trimble over McDaniel, but the staff seems to be leaning toward a PG who is a playmaker first and foremost, which Dug very much is. If he can improve his finishing, he will be Simpson 2.0…smaller, but further along, earlier. I think the big positive for the staff is McDaniel’s ability to run the pick and roll. It flashes briefly in the clips here, but within a system that utilizes that often, and with great shooters around him, it’s going to be amazing to watch
The thing is, 2022 recruiting is mostly just a luxury. Think about the guard spot beyond this year. You have Collins, Bufkin, Barnes, Jackson. Plus the portal if necessary. Will two of four top 100-type recruits work out? Seems likely, and now with Dug there is another. Is Trimble better? Who knows. But he visited and did not commit, so perhaps Juwan was getting the vibes that he wanted blue blood UNC, with family connections.
At the 2/3 spot you can likely add Jett. We should be good there even if Houstan is one and done.
We do need a big or two, just in case both HD and Diabate go pro after next season. You could go for 'glue guys' like Rodgers, from in-state, and likely to stay longer, or swing for the fences with Lively, etc. Tschetter may be under-rated, but more large bodies are needed. Team and roster construction is important, and I wonder if Juwan is looking at chemistry and roster balance as well as star power. Also, 2023 is already looking very promising!
Barnes is not a guard, but the rest of what you say about the guard room is true. Dug is going to end up behind Collins, Bufkin, and Jackson. Plus, if the staff doesn’t feel confident in those three as sophomores/upperclassmen, they can go and try to snag another veteran transfer.
In regards to ‘true bigs’ you’re also right in that we definitely need one and it may even be safe to take two in this class in case both HD and Moussa are gone after next season, but in no ways is Ty Rodgers a ‘big’.
I really don't want to the staff to look stupid for not waiting on Trimble's decision before accepting Dug's commitment but I kinda get the feeling it might be trending in that direction. It's just hard to see how a very undersized PG who can't shoot or finish and likely will struggle on defense was a take when we likely led for Trimble. Losing out on a top 40 guy for a guy who might fall out of the top 100 and might not even make an impact in the B1G is gonna be rough
He can shoot pretty well and he can finish fairly well. So he can shoot and finish. He also is good on defense. Not that many PGs play bully ball and PG defense is the least important spot on the floor. Also there's literally no indication he's dropping out of the top 100. In fact ESPN mentioned him as a riser, he's played well this summer even though he did struggle with his shot this weekend.
Dug's floor is better Spike Albrecht. And a ceiling of Zavier Simpson with a jump shot
And there's no indication for sure Trimble would have chosen us had we waited. If we had waited, and he picked UNC, then maybe Dug goes elsewhere because we told him he was second class for us. Now we're stuck with no one.
I just don't see him ever getting much playing time given the roster with guys like Collins, Bufkin, and Jackson 1 and 2 years older than him and us being in on top guards every recruiting cycle. I don't see his on court value as a player ever being high enough to where Dug being a take at this point in the recruiting cycle was warranted
Maybe so. I would say my reason for preferring Trimble is roster construction like you said, he could play the 2 next to Collins for example.
But if your concern is that the other players will be so good that he never plays then well.... that's not the worst issue in the world and the same thing could happen to Trimble in Jackson is as good as some people think. In today's game it's gonna be impossible to keep an entire roster of players satisfied anyway.
I don't disagree with you and I was higher on Trimble. That said, there is some benefit taking a guy that can be a solid rotation contributor (which I think he can be) that will stay 3-4 years (certainly his pro prospects seem very limited) and be a program guy (neither of Simpson or Brooks is a perfect comparison but look what each has meant to the program). At a minimum he likely sets a solid floor for PG for years to come.
The Albrecht reference is a good one... he helped us go to the finals. And he didn't need to be a scorer, and Dug won't either.
Dug won't score like Simpson did, but he is quicker.
Dug is better than Simpson at the same stage by a decent amount IMO. Im all for the accepting Dug's commitment for multiple reasons. Even if he strikes out, which i don't think he will (a better X IMO) we will have Frankie, who IMO is a lock to at least be an above average/solid PG for 3 years.
My nitpick is GG. I get the family ties bit, but this is not football. You don't have a ton of ships to throw around, and you can only miss on about 3 players before it starts to hurt.
The Simpson comparisons don't really seem reasonable. I think having expectations that Dug will be a All-B1G defender, also master a shot that he can get off against bigger defenders, and also be an insane passer just because they're both undersized seems like a recipe for disappointment
Except no is arguing that his skill is based on his size. If you have watched any of his film, or read any reports outside of Matt's, you can see the kid can pass, shoot, finish and defend. I'd encourage you to look at a few other sources.
Look, Dug probably wouldn't be my first choice as a 22 PG, but we could be doing a lot worse. At minimum, he's a bona fide playmaker with great accleration + open court speed. Now the flowers and candy bunch will continue to propose that defense won't be an issue for McDaniel, but I think we all know he's going to have some struggles at times on that end.
But I think some are forgetting just how much the portal impacts CBB at this point. Finding a serviceable PG via that route isn't hard these days for a school like Michigan. Hell, we've done it 2 straight years with Smith and Jones. Worst-case scenario, Dug is solid third guard and we find help via the portal. Best case scenario is he puts up 10-12ppg and 4-5 assists while being respectable from the perimeter.
You beat me to the point about the portal and where things go with PG in the next few years. Things will work themselves out one way or the other. If McDaniel does work out, great. If he doesn't, he'll probably go to the portal and we find another guy who may do better here.
Matt do you have any sense on the likelihood that Jones stays in the draft? And if so would you rather try to get immediate help in what’s left of the transfer market or get a 2nd guard in the 22 class?
While I don't always get through all of these posts because Matt posts so much content, it is a great way to understand more about these recruits. As teenagers who are playing for both their HS and AAU teams and coming off a weird pandemic year there's a lot of fluctuation in their games. Having Matt (and others) highlight the good and bad is a great way to see beyond the highlight reels.
For example, Matt highlighted some of Dug's struggles this past weekend - especially his rough first game. In contrast, UMHoops dug up full game video of seven AAU games earlier this spring where Dug shot SIXTY FOUR PERCENT from 2pt distance, finished strong at the rim, and shot over 40% from three. He's neither as good as those stats or as shaky as the stats from this past weekend. He'll probably be somewhere in the middle and struggle at times against height but remind us of Earl Boykins other times with his playmaking.
Exciting player to be sure.....with necessary limits to our expectations. Thanks for posting Matt!
I tend to agree that having more volume in terms of evaluations is generally going to be a better tool in projecting.
The caveat with that though, is that evaluating against below-average competition isn't all that helpful. That is the precise reason why I didn't bother with Dug's second game over the weekend.
Those are the type of recruitments that stung at times in years past with guys such as Vogrich, Donnal, Doyle, Nunez, Bajema.
That's fair, but in addition to your list there are guys like Eli, Rahk, Levert, Dawkins, Morgan, Robinson, etc. where you have to see through the competition to understand if they have a key skill that will allow them to succeed in a system. Even with higher rated recruits it is hard to tell the difference between a Simpson/Brooks success story and a DDP/Brundidge/Chatman story that doesn't have as happy of an ending.
One of the things I like about Dug, like you said, is that he is playing against elite competition - so you can see the good and the bad. There was an interview years ago with Boykins where he talked about how he never had to adapt to the situation because he was ALWAYS the smallest guy on the court. The guy guarding him had to adapt. That's a lot different than a 6'8" guy who's dominated his whole life and then finds himself trying to guard a bunch of 7-foot guys in college.
I'm still optimistic about Tschetter finding a role long-term because I think he's a good shooter and seems to do a lot of the little things.....but the reality is that we just don't know because he's not been tested the same way a lot of Juwan's recruits have.
I don't know if that theory is really applicable to guys like Levert (All Ohio EYBL/strong HS competition) and MAAR (Team Final EYBL) or Robinson (average/above average in college, but didn't really hit until the NBA).
But your point is absolutely valid, in that it takes a fine eye (and probably a system that will cater around certain weaknesses) to see the value where it is perhaps not so obvious.
Spot on about Donnal, he was so soft.... but Bajema was a guy I wish never transferred.
Spud Webb says Hello!
Muggsy Bogues says Hello!
Nate Archibald says Hello!
His speed/quickness and height and frame remind me of Tyus Edney. Tyus had a spectacular college career at 5'10 and five years in the NBA.
Having said that, I am almost exclusively interested in a kid's college potential. And it seems that there is sometimes an NBA bias as it involves college recruiting evaluations.
There are seemingly a couple evaluation that are being influenced by Howards personal connections, where he knows and/or likes a guy from a time before he was Michigan's coach and its influencing the pursuit and ranking of priorities. Obviously Howard's personal connections are an overwhelming net positive in recruiting but do think its going to cause this class to have a lower ceiling than it otherwise might have had.
He might be putting team chemistry and intangibles at a higher priority than some of the talent evaluators, which I would think are a huge key to his success past and present. It's not like he's taking his kid's no-talent friends out of nepotism. He's reeling in top 100 talent regularly, and putting together a TEAM. That some are questioning him at this point is mind boggling.
I think this is a pretty good take. We're talking first world problems here folks. I said this in one of my roundups last week - but things are so good around here that we're finding subtle flaws in taking mere top 50-75 level prospects. Things have come a LONG way in two years. Enjoy the ride and let the good times roll.
Could not agree more. As much as we wish all 13 scholarship kids will come in and be stars, the truth is about eight kids will play the vast majority of minutes each year. Somebody is going to have to be on the bench waiting their turn, and some of them might not ever get it. So you need kids who fit the team and all that stuff that somewhat sounds corny, but is much needed. And as mentioned, these are still all very capable basketball players in the top 100.
Yeah that is why I said its a massive overall net positive because we are talking about all high level prospects here and as Matt said its some real first world problems. I am a fan of Juwan Howard's recruiting. I don't love Dug's game but he's earned the benefit of the doubt.
it seems like you're saying Trimble is definitely out, not even as a CG. is that right?
Best guess is that Trimble is committing to UNC tomorrow.
I do like that Dug isn't afraid of contact (drew some fouls) and shows a nice first step that gets him into the lane.
Welcome to Michigan!
dug looks a lot like isiah, with that #11 jersey.
The thing with tiny players... small size can be an advantage, when they are lightning quick, and it appears he is. I doubt Juwan whiffs here.
Whitmore is a monster, and I agree he looks alot better than all the wings we are after instead.
Another great update Matt! Cam Whitmore sure is impressive, he seems like a top-50 HS recruit for sure and the fact that mainstream sites have him ranked outside the top-100 is criminal.
How about this for a hot take: If Coach Howard and the gang can secure commitments from Lively and Whitmore (big if), in addition to the all but guaranteed commitment of Jett, the 2022 recruiting class will be better than the 2021 class. Perhaps not in national ranking by the services, but in the on-court production over the next 2-3 years from the 4-5 players in the 2022 class.
We're basically not even recruiting Whitmore so best to not even think about him. Lively would be great but he has blue blood vibes all over him. Swap those for Rodgers and Casey or Dailey and that's still close to 2021
Thanks, Matt. It's great getting so much info. Lots of work in it.
While concerns regarding Dug's size are legitimate, I wouldn't underestimate him. The coaching staff obviously like him and I would trust their judgement. And some evaluations are very positive. According to the evaluation below, he's grown an inch to 5'10" and he's gained strength over the past year. And he's "quick as lightning" with "blow by explosiveness" and "exceptional change of direction." He's athletic, "bouncier" and dunks easily. He does have a jump shot with 3 point range (36%) and this should improve.
https://www.pointguardeyes.com/dug-mcdaniel-2021
I had to stop watching the Whitmore video after a minute. I got too excited and didn't want to get my hopes up. He's a pretty awesome talent. It's really a shame he hasn't been getting much attention from the staff.
Can someone placate my worries about the frontcourt in 2022? HD is likely gone, and if Diabate goes we'll just have junior Terrence WIlliams and soph/possibly RS fr Tschetter. Looks like we have a few scholarships available, but the new bigs will be true freshmen so they'd better be (close to) OAD types. Thanks, I'll hang up and listen
Two words: transfer portal
Username does not jibe.
A lot of over-the-top BPONE here regarding Dug-and others for that matter. From afar, having never met any of the players involved nor having seen them play live, my preference would have been elsewhere with Dug. But my personal experience and belief declares coaching as being very critical to this matter. Juwan Howard, in his two years as the Michigan HC, has demonstrated himself to be an elite coach-perhaps even the best in the college game. Here, to say that I give him the benefit of the doubt is the understatement of the year.
We are two years in...really only one year per full recruiting opportunities for Juwan. The man is one hell of a coach and recruiter. I think Juwan can win with a couple garbage cans and several pogo sticks. I second guess aplenty-I am not going there with Juwan at this time.
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