Hoops Recruiting and The Five-Spot
It was a loaded weekend on the AAU scene, with several high-level events going on at various locations. While I was in Louisville for the Grassroots Showcase, several noteworthy prospects took the court around the country and the relevant news came in abundance.
In the first of three updates this week, my first piece is dedicated to the bigs.
The Big Fish
2022 five-star Jalen Duren is down to eleven options. pic.twitter.com/wbTfyvIpe3
— Tipton Edits (@TiptonEdits) April 25, 2021
Michigan made the cut for top-overall prospect Jalen Duren. Some on the board considered my Duren is #1 take a bit spicy a few months back, but after a showdown with Michigan State commit Emoni Bates at the Midwest Mania event it seems the consensus is just that. Of course, you can make the call yourself:
I'm not going into any detailed analysis with respect to Jalen's skillset/athleticism. You don't need me to tell you that he's an instant-impact college star that will make a huge impact on both ends of the court the day he steps on the court. The real question is whether he chooses the college route.
I did some digging over the weekend and should he pursue college, it seems Miami is now the favorite after hiring Duren's former HS and current AAU coach, DJ Irving. I'm told a potential reclass to 2021 is being considering and UCLA is the program running in second place.
Assistant coach Phil Martelli has deep ties to Philadelphia, so Michigan is going to put up its best fight until Jalen says no. But ultimately, it appears Duren either goes pro or ends up a Hurricane.
What About Duren's Teammate?
It seems the forgotten center of the 2022 offers is top-50 prospect Dereck Lively. The Philadelphia native suits up for Nike-sponsored Team Final with Jalen Duren on the EYBL circuit and as mentioned above, Phil Martelli definitely has connections here.
Yesterday, Lively mentioned Michigan among the schools pushing the hardest right now. The Wolverines have been in consistent contact over the last year here and appear to be in a functional top six.
While Duren may be the clear priority for reasons that need not be explained, Lively is a great backup plan as a rim protecting 7-footer that flashes the ability to hit shots beyond the arch.
[Hit THE JUMP for one that probably isn't happening and one that may be next in line]
Wait and See Mode for Washington
5-star big Jalen Washington provided his usual floor-stretching over the weekend but didn't really do much otherwise to move the needle. He was a bit more physical in the paint, but I still wanted to see more from him defensively in terms of agility, rim protection and general explosiveness.
Jalen has been on Michigan's radar for years, literally dating back to the Beilein administration. The staff is definitely in contact with Washington, but he's clearly a tier below Lively in the hierarchy and hence the lack of an offer.
Much like myself, the coaching staff needs to see more in the way of physical improvements as Jalen missed his freshman-sophomore years with a torn ACL. Still, an elite shooting big with a wingspan that exceeds seven feet is definitely worth tracking.
Clingan Inching Closer To Decision
4-star center Donovan Clingan is set to cut his list this week per his HS coach. In a piece with MLive last week, Tim Barrette says the southpaw currently has over 20 scholarship offers and will meet with his circle to focus on a more reasonable number:
"Next week, he plans to meet with Barrette; his AAU coach, Joe Chatman; and his dad to discuss his college recruitment, which has picked up the past couple of weeks. The goal, Barrette said, is to trim the list to between six and eight schools."
Rivals' report from yesterday sort of supports the MLive article and says that Donovan is looking to set up visits in the near future.
"Bristol Central center's offer list is approaching 20, however he is set to start looking at what visits he wants to take in the coming weeks. While there is uncertainty for where he will go, Clingan knows he wants to see some campuses and will try to get five visits in before he makes a decision."
I checked in on where things stand over the weekend and Michigan is pretty far down the road with Clingan. The Wolverines are sitting in a top two along with home-state UConn. While the fit under Juwan Howard would be the perfect marriage on the court, I'm told Clingan may be inclined to stay closer to home and that UConn may be on the verge of landing his commitment. If this recruitment extends beyond June/July, that probably bodes well for the Wolverines.
Always appreciate Matt’s updates and eye for talent! Every time I see Jaden McDaniels doing well in the NBA, I remember Matt pointing him out as severely underrated in high school.
April 26th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
Appreciate the kind words. Two things I've been pretty adamant about with my scouting/evaluation service 1) I will view kids live before providing an evaluation 2) I will never be afraid to differ from the mainstreams
Absent those two factors, what value do I really provide for my subscription clients and this fine community?
I get my fair share wrong, just like everyone in the industry. That said, I'm proud of my track record because it's not based on me being smarter than everyone else, I like to believe it is due in large part to my willingness to view kids that don't have a ton of hype.
Jaden McDaniels falls into that category. When I ranked him as my #1 overall prospect, he was in the mid-60s to the mainstreams. And that was because I viewed him live on several occasions and I KNEW he was an NBA rotation player. In short, I outworked the industry rather than out-smarting.
Here are a few of my "much better than the mainstreams will have you believe"
Emanuel Sharp - will flirt with 5-star status for me
Dillino Mitchell - top 50 level prospect for me
Amen and Ausar Thompson (will have MUCH more on them in the coming days) - absolute NBA caliber athletes that are no-brainer 5star/top 15 level prospects
AJ Brown - will be a 4star/top 75 prospect for me
Quante Berry - will be a 4star/top 75ish prospect for me
April 26th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
Matt, you're short-changing yourself. Perhaps you do "out-work" other evaluators but that is not what brings the value to your assessments. My observations here are that you, in fact, see, know and understand the nuances of this great game far better than most of your "competition". It does begin with knowing that live scouting is immeasurably better than any other way of evaluating but you have to know what you are looking at too. The fact is that it is clear that you understand this game pretty damn well. And that is pretty much the long and the short of it-you're smarter....accept it-it's not a bad thing :)
April 26th, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
I just saw an article in the Athletic today where they did a re-draft and Jaden was #10 instead of 28 where he was drafted.
He is my favorite example of your eye. You understand the different levels of athleticism and can see how it translates. It seems like most evaluators look at stats, height, and wingspan and call it a day.
Absent those two factors, what value do I really provide for my subscription clients and this fine community?
Your dashing looks and rapier wit?
I am not at all a fan of Clingan. I would definitely rather have Washington.
Clingan is a typical Purdue center.
April 26th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
So like a Hunter Dickinson?
April 26th, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
No, Dickinson has skill down low.
April 26th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
And Trevion Williams doesn't?
April 26th, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
I was not quite taking him into consideration with my comment. He is full of skill.
More like Edey, Haarms and Haas.
The Dickinson/Clingan comparison is pretty lazy imo. They're both white centers and that's about it. Dickinson was much more developed as a prospect and played against much better competition
Or, you know, they’re both 7 footers that are more traditional big men with similar recruiting rankings. But yeah, let’s go with the race thing
I mean you're kinda proving my point about the comparison being lazy. They're similar if you look at them at a very surface level
Yep you’re right, I saw two white guys and thought they’re the exact same player. My next comparison for Clingan is Spike Albrecht. Can’t wait for him to drain 3s from the logo in the national championship game.
April 26th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
You mean like All Big-10 Trevion Williams?
Or WCC Defensive POY Matt Haarms?
Or third-team All Big-10 Isaac Haas?
Or All American and Big 10 POY Caleb Swanigan?
Again, I'm not saying Washington isn't a good player and I'd be fine picking him up, but prototypical Purdue big man isn't really a knock against a guy.
April 26th, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
Swanigan and Williams are full of skill down low. The reply above this are the 3 that Clingan reminds me of, and even with your 'honors' you state, that is a hard pass. If third team Big Ten by their senior season is what you are shooting for with Howard at his center position - again, hard pass.
April 26th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
I see you whistled past the 2 all-conference/all-american types to focus on the Haas, who had a perfectly solid college career and was clearly the third option offensively on teams with Swanigan and Carsen Edwards. His senior year he did lead the conference in FG percentage and was one of the most efficient offensive players on a team that finished #5 nationally per KenPom.
As Matt EM noted below, he absolutely has developing skills as a big man that would let him stretch the floor; lots of guys look one way in HS as they develop and then refine their skills once they arrive in college. That's especially true for 7' 2" guys playing against much smaller players in CT. Williams also took years to really mature into the player he is now; coming out of HS as the #18 C and #154 player in the country there were questions about his offensive efficiency against better competition as well as his defense against guys who could stretch the floor. Saying you'd pass on a guy based on his HS numbers seems weirdly premature, especially since centers (it seems to me), tend to be harder to project into the future given their natural physical advantages over most other players.
He's a top-50 guy nationally because of his skill set and size, and I can absolutely see how he'd develop into a really good multi-year college player.
April 26th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
I personally do not think he has the skillset others are saying he has. And i am not basing my opinion on numbers. The kid puts up great numbers that would actually be ammunition against my opinion. I am basing my opinion on his skill (what i perceive his skill to be) and the way he plays. He plays like the 3 i mentioned above, which IMO is a hard pass. Howard can do much better.
Dickinson had much, much more skill in high school. I would rather not take a center based on his size (and using that size to dominate 6'4" centers in high school), with below average to average skillset, no outside shot, and feet stuck on concrete.
April 26th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
Do you have any specific evidence you can point to that backs up your claim? Some film perhaps or some clip that shows the weaknesses you perceive? If not, I cannot take your opinion seriously.
April 26th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
Do a youtube search on the guy and form your own opinion. I have seen plenty of him and i have my own opinion. Don't be a sheep, do your own DD.
April 26th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
I wouldn't sell him short. Under Coach Howard's tutelage, he may have great potential. Just remember what he's done with Austin Davis and Hunter Dickinson.
This didn't age well :)
April 26th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
Matt, what's your take on Clingan? Is he somebody you would be happy with Michigan taking if it means we miss out on the other center targets?
April 26th, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
Under Juwan Howard, I would like Clingan at Michigan. He's a legit 7-footer with good touch around the basket that will be a potent-scorer on the block. He's a bit more finesse that Hunter Dickinson and the staff views him as a hybrid between Hunter Dickinson/Walker Kessler.
Is he the same tier of prospect as Jalen Duren? Of course not. But nobody is. So I don't like to do the "would you take Clingan over Duren" questions because we all know Duren is in a stratosphere all to his own regardless of what mainstreams will have you believe about Bates.
April 26th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
I also think that having a guy who will be around for 2-4 years and develop under Howard is nothing to be ashamed of. I think the biggest challenge I see at center in the years to come is how to balance the depth chart to make sure we have at least two guys capable of playing minutes. That may sound trivial to some, especially in the days of college free agency via the portal, but when you consider the 5-star 1-and-done talent we're recruiting, the current state of the depth chart, and the knowledge that even really good centers will still take time to develop (or stay out of foul trouble).....it may get a little complicated.
If Dickinson and Diabate both went pro after next year, a real possibility, we have no centers on the roster and you need 2.5 of them in your rotation.
I'm curious if there are any other "B-list" guys out there we have our eye on if Duren and Clingan are both looking elsewhere.
I think the question is: would you prefer Clingan or Lively? Or do you know who Howard prefers?
I know it’s the cool thing to do since Bates committed to MSU, but Duren is not in a stratosphere above him. Sure if they played one on one right now Duren would probably win as he’d have a much better chance of guarding bates than the other way around. But at the end of the day he’s just a physical specimen playing down a year like most top prospects. He has no touch around the basket, and as an undersized, athletic, rim runner, he likely will not see crunch time minutes in the NBA
April 26th, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^
Thanks, Matt. It's always good to get your analyses and thoughts.
April 26th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
Nice update.
I think we'll likely have to get used to top-5/10 guys mostly going to the league, but it's still intriguing seeing UM on the list of these top recruits.
April 26th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
thanks Matt
Duren definitely seems like a guy goes in the G-League right away...that said, still gotta play it out, just not waste too many resources on it, as the kid isn't going to college.
Interesting that Clingan is leaning to UConn... i mean, home teams always have an advantage I guess...but being developed by Howard would be tough to turn down...we will see i guess
April 26th, 2021 at 12:25 PM ^
It'll be interesting to see how the straight-to-the-G-League guys fair in the draft. I can't say I've been paying much attention, but I thought I remember hearing someone mention that at least some of the Ignite players have been underwhelming. I wonder if that will play out in the draft, and if any of these kids thinking about the G League will instead opt for the bigger stage of college basketball to maximize their exposure/draft prospects.
April 26th, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
I think Todd didn't develop too much; he's still a pick in the draft due to measurables and upside however.
Green and Kuminga are mocked in the top 7 pretty consistently - but those guys are ones that it didn't really matter where they played.
Duren is a guy like that I think. College/Pro...he'll be a top 5 or top 10 pick regardless - just depends on his family situation, both financially and what they value....
Diabate could go to the G, but he wants to go to college to experience it, based on an interview I saw with him. It was actually important to experience as you don't get a second chance at it....other kids don't value that experience over being a pro and getting paid.
I think another lens in looking at this dilemma is whether the bigger stage terminology is applicable to fans/TV viewership or NBA GMs/front offices? Sure, CBB has a MUCH bigger following/TV audience in relation to the GLeague...........but do kids with legit pro aspirations really care about that as much as they do NBA GMs/FOs watching. I think there is an argument to be made that NBA GMs/FOs may be more attentive to GLeague games in relation to some random CBB game.
I said this roughly 6 months to a year ago when we had a post on the matter, but I definitely think the GLeague option will increase in popularity. In the last week, we have a HS prospect hovering in the 60-80 range commit to the G League.
The overarching theme with HS kids is they want to be paid now/short-money rather than go to school and risk exposing themselves/take the long-money approach.
thanks for the insight Matt.
during Beilein's time, there was a lot of discussion on the one and done schools and whether the NCAA would be better off without the post HS year requirement of the NBA draft, as Michigan wasn't a one and done school at that time.
The G-League changes the calculus a bit, as the high 5* would be drafted and the G would be looking more at the 12-50 range (as you note potentially even beyond that tier)
Personally, I am still in favor of getting rid of that one year requirement; I mean, its not like HS players weren't drafted directly out of HS before - that reality is only 10 -15 years old. If you are good enough to play in the league, i don't know what the point of the one year hold.
The NIL is another variable... I mean is it possible for a HS to sign a shoe deal and still be eligible in college?
Interesting times... the college game will survive, but it will be different.
The overarching theme with HS kids is they want to be paid now/short-money rather than go to school and risk exposing themselves/take the long-money approach.
I hear you, and it might just be me, but I read your comments, and think about the article about this Overtime Sports "HS" and other things like this, and it just seems so shortsighted. I get wanting to take the earnings while they're there, but this isn't lifechanging money we're talking about. A lot of the rookie contracts are one thing, where you're getting enough money that if you live responsibly you can be set up for life (not that they all do, but that's besides the point). But a couple hundred thousand doesn't get you very far, especially considering I'm sure a number of these guys will be blowing through that money fast (and it's small enough that it's not hard to do). And for the guys that don't make it to the NBA, what do they do then? They can't go to college, at least not under an athletic scholarship. Say what you want about the value proposition of college athletics, but at least a college education is stepping stone on the road to "going pro in something other than sports."
I don't know, I just feel like this kind of short term approach is a big gamble for a lot of these kids. But then again I don't see how things like the G League Ignite or Overtime Sports High could possibly make money, so what do I know. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.
Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga are projected as a top 5 pick. Isaiah Todd has acquitted himself well in the G-League and is looking at early 2nd round projection after being projected as a UDFA. If any, it didn't hurt their stock.
The Miami's DJ Irving hire definitely went under the radar last week. I do definitely think that the NCAA needs to put a rule in place where if a school hires a assistant coach, they cannot recruit their family or HS players they've coached for a few years because this type of shit is getting absurd
This was definitely part of my logic in the "GLeague is going to mitigate CBB" approach last year. Sports, in their entirety, are all trending toward player empowerment rather than institutions/management. Basketball, in particular, is sensitive to player empowerment, and that overlaps a bit with social issues in contemporary times. I'm not going into the politics of this, but it is inevitable that CBB suffers IMO. Players want to get paid and/or control the terms of employment and CBB is viewed as a clear barrier to that in its current form. Its really just that simple.
What if that player wants to play for that coach and school? Are you going to prevent them from wanting to join that school?
You're basically advocating for Jett and Jace not to go to Michigan to play for his father in that scenario.
Preventing a player from getting recruited by that school especially if that's the school he wants to go is anti-player IMO.
What if that player wants to play for that coach and school? Are you going to prevent them from wanting to join that school?
Yes. There is a reason I put a time limitation on my proposed rule, which is to prevent schools from basically hiring coaches or family as a brief 1 or 2 year rental to bring in a top player then fire them. If a school has the foresight to bring in a coach or family member like 4 years in advance to try to bring in a 8th grader or freshman that they really like but don't know how good they're going to be then they can take their chances
You're basically advocating for Jett and Jace not to go to Michigan to play for his father in that scenario.
I specified assistant coaches because a team has multiple and it's much less likely a school is going to play musical chairs with their head coach
Preventing a player from getting recruited by that school especially if that's the school he wants to go is anti-player IMO
If a school really wants a player, then they'll recruit them hard and pitch them on the school instead of hiring their coach or a family member. The rule really shouldn't be anti-player unless a school does make the decision to hire an assistant from a school with a player they want, which in that case the school and player have to live with the consequences of that. But the Ok State hiring Cade Cunningham's brother for 2 years then firing him, USC hiring the Mobley brothers' dad as an assistant, Miami hiring Jalen Duren's and Justice William's AAU coach as an assistant bullshit needs to stop
I was hoping for a more positive post for the center recruiting. Duren is Miami or Pro, Washington is still being evaluated, Clingan is looking like UConn and who really knows with Lively at this point other than a top 6. It would be nice to at least be leading for one of our top choices down low. 2022/23 is where we are gonna need several post players with Hunter and Diabate most likely both gone.
Clingan video is not edited down, which is nice. Basketball is beautiful when you see all the flow and play under the radar of normal size kids.
There's a lot of kids out there with talent, not as many with size. There's too much unknown to get too vested but basketball is fun, especially in a quiet spring.
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