THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#91 Michigan (7-14, 2-8 B10) vs #105 Rutgers (10-10, 2-7 B10)
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Saturday, 4:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: MICHIGAN-5 Torvik: MICHIGAN-6
TELEVISION	BTN (link)

THE OVERVIEW

Here's what I learned from the 2021 football team: To experience the best, it's worth sticking around for the worst.

The football nadir was probably different for everyone, but it probably came at some point in 2020 between Ricky White torching the Michigan secondary and falling behind by 17 at Rutgers. Whether it happened for you during a rote destruction at the hands of Michael Penix, or it was when all of the critical 2021-'22 recruits came to town just to watch Wisconsin blow us out from the Brown Jug, somewhere in there I'm betting you decided the Harbaugh era was going to end in a sad "Well we tried."

As it turned out, for many reasons, that football season wasn't real. Vincent Gray and Gemon Green overcame The Worst Cornerback Performance Of All Time to each start in wins versus CJ Stroud and the best receiver room to ever come through college. The recruits ate some cheeseburgers and came to Michigan. Even the 17-point deficit to Rutgers evaporated in a 95-yard kickoff return by Giles Jackson, a slant to Mike Sainristil, an Oh Wide Open play-action pass to Cornelius Johnson, and 4th and Goal from the 1 with Hassan Haskins.

Some of you celebrated the comeback. Some of you took it wryly. Some found out about it later because you turned it off after Quinn Nordin missed a field goal (the one at the end of the half, not at the end of the first overtime). I quite clearly had no idea at the time what in all of that would be relevant going forward. Michigan made Haskins RB1 over 5-star Zach Charbonnet. NFL scouts saw something in Penix. Jay Harbaugh told his kickoff guys to put it out of the endzone the two times he had to face Giles Jackson. Cornelius Johnson would get behind a defense again; Mike Sainristil wasn't done making plays in the left side of the endzone. The NCAA made the burgers their first investigation of the NIL era. Tell me that was your takeaway.

This is all to say I don't know where this basketball program is heading, who's leaving, who's coming, who will be coaching it, or what, if anything, will end up being relevant about a Saturday home game with Rutgers during the worst season of my lifetime. Given the state of things I think it's more likely that Warde Manuel is gone by the end of the month than Juwan is back next year. But I also bet my friend an expensive dinner after the Illinois loss that Michigan will win another basketball game this season.

The bet makes a good excuse why I'm spending a Saturday cheering for this.

But the truth is way more corny: I'm going because Terrance Williams hasn't given up. Because Dug McDaniel is fun. Because Tarris Reed plays like there's a 10-year-old with a joystick inside of him. Because Olivier Nkamhoua chose to be here and refuses to admit it was a mistake.

Also because it's cheap enough to bring kids who don't know or care about the stakes.

Yes, I've watched them this season! I'm aware that Jon Sanderson said the culture sucks, and watched enough bad defense the last two years to know he's not wrong. In their last ten games they've given up second-half runs of 12-2, 13-2, 13-2 again, 13-2 again!, 14-4, 12-0, 16-0, 17-2, 15-2, 18-2, and 16-1, not to mention an 11-0 run in triple overtime.

But here's where we get to the Rutgers side of this. It's not Lucy holding the football; it's on a tee. That's no guarantee you won't still end up flat on your back--muscle memory and all--or that you'll gain any satisfaction from the kick. But it's been my experience since Rutgers joined the conference that the guys who play for us never take any win for granted,

and that celebrating the small victories makes the great ones that much sweeter.

[After THE JUMP: I put a cyan on the coach.]

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

For the haters (and the realists), a cyan on the coach.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

That 'H' next to Austin Williams is for Hartford, not Houston. I too am a little disappointed it's not The Whale.

THE THEM

Offense:
Defense:

The end.

YOU WROTE THAT INTRO YOU MIGHT AS WELL WRITE ABOUT BASKETBALL.

I said I was rooting for them, not that I want to talk about it. Can't we break down Donovan Edwards touchdowns in the NCG or something?

ALREADY DID THAT TWICE.

Fine.

Not okay. [Wilcomes]

C Clifford Omoruyi is the nearest thing to a star on this team, and a microcosm of the 2023-'24 and Pikiell Rutgers teams in general. That is, he is an outstanding rim defender with great athleticism, an outrageous block rate, and plenty of rebounds despite it. They will switch him, as he recovers quickly enough to catch up to point guards who blow by him. Offensively there's always been potential—the guy posterized Zach Edey one time—but just that. He's developed a few post moves over the years but not enough to be a major offensive threat, and when you push him away from the basket at all his scoring drops off a…precipice. Since they don't have many other options, he's fine taking them anyways.

The Knights have been going to him more lately, and he's rewarded that faith with more aggressive play.

He doesn't pick up many fouls, and that's important, because they don't have a backup, and Omoruyi is asked to bang away for 30+ minutes a night.

PF Aundre Hyatt is a version of Terrance Williams who was athletic enough in high school to be recruited by LSU. He's never going to be a great shooter, but can get hot from the arc at times and creates more of his own shots than he gets credit for. As a senior Hyatt's also progressed immensely as a passer, cutting his turnover rate under 10 while taking on the role of secondary creator. Defensively Hyatt fits well in the system as a burly winger who can put his chest in a big or guard a small forward on the perimeter.

SF Mawot Mog was supposed to be that secondary scorer, but the Aussie was injured last season and came back with slippery fingers. His eFG% this year is under 40%, largely because he's been so bad at finishing it's almost better to have him take a jumper. Mog always carried a high turnover rate, but that's come down to a reasonable 16 percent. He does take threes, but his career 28% matches his season output, so you might as well let him. The total is a terrible offensive piece who makes up for it by turning wings into the same. Those same hands that are so sloppy on offense are constantly interrupting driving wingers, and his size and athleticism allow Mag to guard anyone on the court.

SG Austin Williams is the lone non-freshman newcomer in the regular lineup. He played two years at Marist and two at Hartford, both of which tried to make him an oversized point guard. The results were lots of drives to the basket, lots of assists, and lots of turnovers. For Hartford that meant both a trip to the NCAA Tournament in 2021, and dropping out of D-I after 2022. When that happened Williams transferred to FIU, but missed the season with an knee injury. The resulting rust and move up to the Big Ten took away the assists, but he still gets to the rim and still coughs it up as often as he makes one. Williams is a career 29.5% from three, so it's better to see his "38%" on the graph as 5/14. He does fit the defensive profile of the team, but more as an effort guy. The effort pays off on offense too in that Williams is excellent at drawing contact—he's currently 8th (one spot after Tarris Reed) in free throw rate in the Big Ten this year.

If you were confused when I said Williams was the only newcomer, that's because PG Derek Simpson was so invisible on offense last year he inspired me to add a ghost to the graphics. Turns out there was a very good reason for that: Zavier Simpson (no relation) thinks Derek is giving his family name a bad shooting reputation. D.Simpson is 26/80 on two-point jumpers, and 50% on unassisted shots at the rim despite having pretty good speed and enough ups to dunk.  UCLA's Prince Ali comes up on the Kenpom player comps. Defensively Derek is about as effective as X, but does so with length and speed more than doggedness. He was a popular pick as a breakout player this season, and there are flashes that he's on his way, especially when you consider that like other Simpsons of recent memory, a lot of good passes went to bad shooters.

The Bench:

• PG Jamichael Davis is the most point guardy of the three point guards they rotate through, and has a well-developed game for a guy his age except the shot. He earned a starting role in December but was nursing an injury over Christmas and returned to split time with Williams. He seemed to gain some confidence in the 2nd half against Purdue last week but that confidence turned to bad shots against Penn State. Freshmen.
• W Gavin Griffiths is the other freshman, and was a top-50 recruit for most of the cycle before dropping to the high 60s. That's because he's listed at 6'8" and can play the two. Thus far he's been Kam Chatmanesque, which is to say his passing attempts mostly go to the other team, he's a terrible shooter even by Rutgers standards, and he's very tall for a guard.
• G Noah Fernandez is Yet Another Point Guard, one of three, including Austin Williams and Jeremiah Williams of ISU, that Rutgers picked up in the portal to compete with Simpson and Davis. The UMass transfer has taken on more of a SG role since somebody has to, and was starting there until a lineup shakeup last month. Fernandez is hit-or-miss; he could come off the bench for 17 points against a Seton Hall or Ohio State, or score nothing on Iowa.
• C/PF Antwone Woolfolk didn't make the chart but does make it on the floor for about 10-15 minutes a game because he's the nearest thing to a center past Omoruyi. Woolfolk is 6'9"/225 and not much more than a Tschetter, except he's only taken five threes and made one in his career.
• W Oksar Palmquist is a lengthy Just-a-Shooter having a bad shooting year.

THE TEMPO FREE

Offense:
Defense:

Unless they can get the ball to Omoruyi on action the paint tends to get crowded, so they settle for 45% jumpers. On defense they run you off the line and turn you into Rutgers. They have the #1 non-steal turnover rate in the country (meaning they're forcing a lot of errors) and the 10th highest block rate.

THE KEYS

Can you switch all the way on OUR guard? [David Wilcomes]

Duggie be good. There's switchable and then there's switchable on a guy who came move like Dug McDaniel. His trip to the RAC last year was a breakout game for McDaniel, and one of the reasons for that was they thought they could have a guy like Aundre Hyatt keep up.

Tarris be physical. It's not easy to get Omoruyi in foul trouble (Mississippi State is the only team to foul him out this year) but just banging away at him will hamper his effectiveness. PSU just had 6'11"/245 Qudus Wahab get into a shoving match and held Rutgers to 46 points a few days ago.

Olivier be on. This team can defend everything except a PF who can shoot over Hyatt. /waves

Rutgers be off. This team scored 59 against Stonehill (#300 in defense to Kenpom), 61 against Princeton (#139), and most recently 46 at home versus Penn State (108th). Michigan is 187th so I don't expect a top-100 performance. Just keep Omoruyi away from the GD rim okay?

Don't kick ball out of bounds off foot. Rutgers opponents are known to do that. Approach every possession with a plan, and when that doesn't work just launch a medium one or attack a matchup. It's not a good thing that Michigan has so many archetypes and so few hybrids, but if there's one game to turn that into an advantage it's the one-big switchables.

Get the moppets on the jumbotron. The building's been quiet this year, mostly because the team's not good, but also because they keep playing 9 o'clock weeknights on Peacock. Last Saturday drew the people who wanted to see Sherrone Moore's introduction and a sizeable chunk seemed to depart (some of us for the hockey game) at halftime. The only other Saturday afternoon at Crisler this year was for EMU, literally the worst team on the schedule.

No excuses tomorrow. Hockey is on the road at 7, the NFL is on its bye before the Super Bowl, and everyone who was throwing a birthday party has the flu. With tickets selling for $1-5, it's as good an opportunity as you're going to get in this crappy season to bring your kids and see a victory. Sure we suck, they're Rutgers, and it's bad basketball. All that's surprisingly easy to ignore when you're in the building.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

A Michigan WIN(!!!) by FIVE(!!!!)