THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

So this isn't going great. To add to Michigan losing four in a row and five of their last six, then watching Isaiah Livers fall to injury 20 minutes into his return to the court, they now have to deal with the absence of their captain and point guard due to an unspecified violation of team rules:

On Monday, the program announced that star point guard Zavier Simpson will be suspended for Tuesday’s game due to a “violation of team policies.” Of all the things, on all the days, this is the last thing this program needed. Juwan Howard told reporters in an afternoon news conference that Simpson’s status will be evaluated after the trip to Nebraska, when he will “further look at this thing, deeper and deeper, and see what we’re going to do moving forward.”

That sounds ominous.

Michigan is now projected as a nine-seed on the Bracket Matrix; they appear on 90 of 98 brackets. Bart Torvik gives them a 63.7% chance of making the field. The team's standing feels shakier than that with Livers out for who knows how long.

The glass half full way of looking at tonight is that if Michigan had to lose Livers and Simpson for a game, this is one of the best ones for them to miss while maintaining a decent shot at victory. The glass half empty outlook is that a game Michigan desperately needs to win is now closer to a coin-flip than the projections say.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Fred Hoiberg took over from the fired Tim Miles and had to MacGyver together a roster out of an Icelandic bench player and thin air. Nebraska has the lowest minutes continuity from last year of any program that was in D-I last year at an astonishing 4.1%. This is as close as you're going to get to wiping the slate completely clean. 

Even with Hoiberg's usual influx of transfers, this was expected to be a Year Zero situation, and that has come to pass; the Huskers are 7-13, 2-7 in conference, and have losses to five teams ranked below 100th in KenPom. While they've occasionally been frisky in Big Ten play, even pulling home upsets over Iowa and Purdue, most of their games against non-Northwestern competition haven't been particularly close.

The Huskers are led by a trio of guards. JuCo transfer Cam Mack has been solid at point guard considering the talent around him. He boasts a top-25 assist rate with respectable shooting numbers everywhere but the free throw line, where he's hitting an underwhelming 59%. He leads the team at 13.3 points per game and dishes out 6.7 assists against only 2.7 turnovers. He's the Simpson of this offense in that the ball usually goes through him and he almost never leaves the court.

Despite a relatively low usage, 6'5" guard Haanif Cheatham, a Florida Gulf Coast grad transfer who was previously at Marquette, is second among Nebraska scorers, mostly by virtue of attacking the rim and finishing well. He's not much of a shooter and it wouldn't be a bad idea to put him on the line, where he shoots 65%, if Michigan had any depth. Alas. The other double-digit scorer is two-guard Robert Morris transfer Dachon Burke, whose shooting numbers have been bad across the board; that hasn't stopped him from taking on the highest shot share on the team.

The only returning player on the team is 6'6" forward Thorir Thorbjarnarson, who's developed from a little-used bench player into an effective stretch four. While very selective with his shots, he's making 57% of his twos and 46% of his threes. He's also the only rotation player with a free throw percentage above 70. Juwan Howard is going to be forced to play some two-big lineups given the team's absences; whoever is playing the four can't stray too far from the perimeter with ThorThor out there.

At center, 6'9, 260-pound freshman Yvan Ouedraogo provides a lot of vowels and offensive rebounding; otherwise, he's been ineffective on both ends. He splits the minutes 60/40 with another freshman, Kevin Cross, a stretch who's very eager to get shots up despite hitting 44% on twos and 29% on threes. These guys are very unlikely to go at Teske in the post with any effectiveness; given M's luck lately, Cross will go 5-for-5 from downtown.

The other key bench player is guard Jervay Green, another guy who can't shoot this year, so expect a 15-point outburst in a ten-minute stretch at a critical point in the game.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Nebraska pushes the tempo more than any Big Ten team, a hallmark of Hoiberg squads, and they've been great at avoiding turnovers. Otherwise, there's little they do well on offense, and a lot of things they don't do well: they're 247th in 2P% and into the 300s in offensive rebound, free throw shooting, and percentage of shots blocked.

The defense has been even worse on the whole. They're close to dead last nationally in defensive rebounding and give up a lot of easy buckets inside the arc; they have little in the way of rim protection. Big Ten opponents have made nearly 55% of their twos while pulling down over 34% of their misses. They also give up a lot of three-point looks; whether that's a good thing is up to you, the reader.

THE KEYS

Communicate on defense. Michigan's defense got noticeably worse at communicating when Livers went out. Now their primary perimeter defender and communicator is also out. Against non-bodybag competition this season, in a sample about equivalent to a full game, the defense has collapsed when Simpson and Livers are both on the bench (via Hoop Math):

Everything falls apart: Michigan is decidedly worse in almost every defensive category. Something needs to change fast if the team is going to get through this stretch, however long it lasts, unscathed.

Unleash Bajema. There's no time like now to see if Cole Bajema can provide a lift off the bench that Adrien Nunez has been unable to give. We may end up seeing both get time in this one.

Make a f***ing shot. For the love of all things sacred and holy.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 6.

There's going to be a huge load on Jon Teske in this one. He's going to be even more of an offensive focus than usual with Simpson/Livers out and Nebraska's weak interior defense. He's also going to be the primary player responsible for communicating on defense and covering for the inevitable slipups. While a lot of the focus is going to be on how DDJ and Eli Brooks replace Simpson, Teske is the most important player in this game for either team.