THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#11 Michigan (6-3) vs #91 Minnesota (7-1)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	6:30 PM Eastern Saturday, 12/11
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -13 Torvik: M -10
TELEVISION	FS1

THE OVERVIEW

Richard Pitino must have been the world's biggest player's coach because after he was fired literally all of Minnesota transferred except for injury-beleaguered center Eric Curry, who probably gave up in exhaustion at the idea of travelling anywhere on the mish-mash of ligaments and sinews he calls a knee.

Disaster Factory of the Year Both Gach hilariously transferred back to Utah, where he's… uh… a high-usage-low turnover guy shooting 59/38? This may be why Pitino got fired.

Anyway, the portal taketh, and the portal giveth: everyone in the Minnesota rotation is an uptransfer. Everyone thought this meant they'd be horrible and while they got off to a 7-0 start, they're probably horrible. The Gophers escaped WKU (by four), Princeton (in 2OTs) and Pitt (by one)—Pitt is 192nd on Kenpom, by the way, they are Eddie Jordan-era Rutgers bad—before a surprising win at Mississippi State that is by far their best performance of the year. A relatively competitive eight point loss against MSU is a touch misleading since that was a 19 point MSU lead at about the 10 minute mark.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Still project that Diabate is out.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Thiam and Ramberg are only on the graphic because we have nine spots for players. The over/under on minutes they play is set at 2.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

no this guy isn't on the team anymore [Campredon]

Eric Curry is one of only two Gophers you may be vaguely aware of. Curry is a 6'9" brick of a human who never had much lift and ended up with even less after battling through a series of lower-body injuries over the course of his first three years with the Gophers. Now relatively healthy, Curry is your archetypical below-the-rim space eater down low. He hoovers up defensive rebounds, is inactive on the offensive boards, and has a block rate hovering around 3—ie, nearly invisible. He gets in the way and then you shoot over him, and you box him out and then he's done.

Curry ends up taking a lot of longer twos for a post player—almost 60% of his shots are filed there—and hits at a mediocre 41%. These are mostly post possessions that end up too far away from the rim, not genuine face-up jumpers. Unsurprisingly, he does not get to the line much.

Now for the Parade of Transfers. Charleston transfer Payton Willis is the alpha, and hoo boy this is a Kenpom profile. Willis transferred to Minnesota after two years at Vandy, then transferred out, then transferred back. Thus he may be vaguely familiar to you. Two years ago he operated as Just A Shooter, hitting 35% from deep with vanishingly small FT and TO rates. In an abbreviated season with Charlotte he operated as a combo guard, splitting his usage about evenly between twos and threes while getting his assist rate up to around 20.

Now he's operating as a full-on point, with a full third of his usage coming in PNR ball handler situations. There he's been very good at offense that's usually not that efficient, scoring 1 PPP. Once you account for passes, though, he drops from 85th percentile to 67th, and Synergy does not do strength of schedule adjustments.

Still, he's held up decently well in the two games against high major competition they've played. He has 12 assists to just two turnovers, and while he shot it very poorly against MSU he was the Kenpom MVP of the Mississippi State game with 24 points on 17 shooting possessions. He is a relatively dangerous pull-up shooter, so we might see more hedging.

GW transfer and PF Jamison Battle is the second banana. He started his career as Just A Shooter and has retained his deep shooting ability after the uptransfer while getting more active inside the line. He may be tracking towards one of the most-deployed players in the country; he has literally not left the floor in the last three games.

Battle is a black hole who does not get to the rim and ends up taking a lot of pull-up twos. He's hitting longer twos at 59%(!) this year; that's obviously going to come down but he was at 43% last year so a long two from him is a decent shot if he's not heavily contested. At 6'7" he's the second-biggest player Minnesota will deploy but he has minimal impact as a rebounder or shot blocker. His ability to knock down jumpers is an X factor—he could keep Minnesota in it if he's on.

Lafayette transfer Eylijah Stephens shot 51/33/90 on high usage last year. He's been miserable at the rim—8th percentile—against middling competition and has survived by knocking down jumpers. His 42% clip on threes is likely an aberration; he was at 32-33% all four years at Lafayette. He does not provide a whole lot else.

William and Mary transfer Luke Loewe is mostly staying out of the way on offense. He shot 45% from three as a sophomore but fell to 30% last year and has started this year 4/20. Recapturing his lost shooting touch is the most likely way he breaks through as a decent Big Ten player; his early forays in running pick and roll have gone very poorly and he's mostly existed as a spot-up shooter.

The Minnesota bench is thin, with only two guys getting meaningful run:

• Stephen F Austin transfer Charlie Daniels (not that Charlie Daniels) backs up Curry. He was a low usage backup at a Southland Conference school a year ago who was averaging almost 8 fouls per 40 and shooting 39% from the free throw line with a 27 TO rate. He just about has to be horrible.
• New Hampshire transfer Sean Sutherlin is a 6'5" wing sort with almost no outside game. Last year he shot 44% on twos against largely America East competition and was just 7/27 from deep; he also hit 58% at the line. He's doing pretty decently on twos so far this year but it would be a shock if he was able to maintain that once the cupcakes thin out.

 

THE TEMPO FREE

Mmm here's a real red one:

Minnesota gets approximately one shot on every possession, with a tremendous TO rate offset by a truly amazing lack of offensive rebounding for a high major team that's mostly played low majors. The rest of their drill-down stats are middling except for their three-point defense. Opponents are hitting 26% from deep, which is plainly unsustainable.

THE KEYS

Come on ride the train. Minnesota's big situation is Eric Curry and a backup from SFA. Dickinson can shoot over those guys all day. He's had a total of 24 attempts from two over the last couple games, up from 4 and 6, and that's got to continue if Michigan is going to maintain their recent level of play.

Brandon Johns roulette. Johns should be able to physically overmatch his man, particularly late when Jamison Battle figures to be tired—he is unlikely to leave the floor. Last game was a Dominant Brandon Johns game against weak competition, and another could be in the offing here. Also a strong possibility: Johns tossing a ball in the stands and turning into a pumpkin again. If he can string together a couple of games where he's the good version of himself Michigan will have a much better chance of enduring this Diabate-free stretch without additional losses.

Hit shots. There is no earthly reason why Minnesota should have this kind of three point defense, what with a general dearth of size and their need to double against real post players since Curry's not much of a defender. This won't be the cakewalk that the Nebraska game was—Minnesota does a decent job of preventing launches—but the main way this stays close is for Michigan to brick shots.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 13.