THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan is the underdog in a matchup they won by 35 points just 18 days ago. Those algorithms don't take "These teams just played" into account, but then neither does basketball. It does care about venue--they give the home team about a +3 margin--but probably doesn't know about Hunter Dickinson's white-hot hatred of the local basketball outfit. Both he and fellow DMC native Terrance Williams II have played some of their best games before family in College Park.

They may be on shakier ground with the other 29 points of swing. Not too much has changed between these teams in the last two weeks, except Maryland's ranked 17 spots lower. Since Michigan's 81-46 win in Ann Arbor both teams have gone 1-2 with two Big Ten losses on the road, one of them to Iowa. Michigan's Ls were much closer, so I guess to the fancystats beating #18 Ohio State at home is just that much more impressive than finding yourself in a game with Northwestern. Which, fair.

Said defeat of Ohio State wasn't a fluke, though. PG Jahmir Young went off for 30 points, and also collected a Derrick Walton Jr-esque five offensive boards. That game also turned on some clever coaching: Maryland came out at halftime with a press that confounded Ohio State, generated a handful of turnovers, and kept Chris Holtmann's vaunted offense to 7 points in 10 minutes.

Start watching at 13:57 if it doesn't put you there.

What Maryland hasn't found in that time is an answer for Michigan's size. One thing I forgot to mention about the above game is the Buckeyes were without Zed Key, who's really their only post presence. If anything Maryland's forward situation has gotten worse, since their top backup left with a foot injury and hasn't played since.

In fact if anyone's found another playable center in the interim it's Michigan, who recently introduced a two-bigs lineup to get more minutes for Tarris Reed at the four. Reed was able to counter the bullyball of Kris Murray and provide enough offensive rebounding to combat small lineups. It also worked against Northwestern, which has one excellent rim protector, but their four is just another small forward.

This will be an interesting test of Maryland's new coach, Kevin Willard, a defensive guy who came up under Rick Pitino. Does he just go small all game and live with the results? Did he notice something late in the first game? Does he follow Michigan's last few opponents in denying Hunter the rim at all costs, and let threes fall where they may?

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Tarris Reed moved up to 6th man and I've swapped Will Tschetter (11 and 10 minutes the last two games) for Isaiah Barnes (DNP) since. Williams is getting 10-12 fewer minutes per game.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Maryland is expected to still be without forward Patrick Emilien, a weird 6'7" center type. Maryland was more or less running a six-man lineup without Emilien before he got roughed up pretty badly trying to help on Dickinson.

I've replaced Emilien this week with Noah Batchelor, who's larger than his listing but not THAT much larger. Batchelor played 22 of the 32 minutes he's been on the court this month in that game as a small five while Julian Reese sat with foul trouble. Maryland also tried inserting a 6'11" freshman, Caelum Swanton-Rodger; the Michigan game was his longest appearance this year as well.

[Hit THE JUMP for Returtle.]

THE THEM

Hart's now the the only starter shooting over 30% from outside this year. [Campredon]

See the last preview. Updates:

• Charlotte transfer PG Jahmir Young shot 15 free throws vs OSU, and only one of those trips was in the last minute. He's up to an incredible 30% usage after taking on more of the offense by himself, scoring 20 and 30 points on 19 and 23.5 shot equivalents in Maryland's last two games. Going back to the Michigan game he's also had more turnovers than assists against everybody but doesn't-play-defense Iowa. His slash line is now 48/29/80, and he's 69th in the country at drawing fouls.
• Just-a-Shooter shooting guard Donald Carey has brought his 3P% up a point. He's now at 29%.
• Small forward Hakim Hart is mostly out there for his defense, but he's been an offensive ghost since Michigan. He was part of the parade of free throws vs OSU (6/7) but in four games he's shooting 9/28 from the floor.
• PF/C Donta Scott is one missed three from the worst shooting numbers of his career. T-Will and Dickinson held him to 5 points and two turnovers on 19 possessions.
• Center Julian Reese coughed up five of the 20 turnovers that sunk them in a 64-50 loss at the RAC (Rutgers). His early foul trouble and general unplayability against Michigan was extreme, but he's picked up 2 fouls before the half in every game since.

That last point is a huge deal. When Reese sits, Scott has to play the five (you've seen that matchup a few times now) and their team rebounding falls off a cliff. 247's Isaac Trotter pulled Maryland's Plus/Minus net ratings in Big Ten play, and it's rough:

Maryland's net rating during Big Ten play for each rotation player:

• Jahmir Young: -23.64 on the floor; +14.98 off the floor (A couple blowout losses distort this number. It will come back to earth. Young has been Maryland's best player this season.)
• Hakim Hart: -9.94 on the floor; -31.07 off the floor
• Donta Scott: -16.68 on the floor; -9.31 off the floor
• Don Carey: -25.43 on the floor; +7.31 off the floor
• Julian Reese: -2.36 on the floor; -40.48 off the floor (Young has been Maryland's best player but Reese might be the most indispensable.)
• Ian Martinez: -16.51 on the floor; -13.57 off the floor
• Jahari Long: +0.00 on the floor; -22.87 off the floor
• Patrick Emilien: -26.44 on the floor; -9.06 off the floor
• Noah Batchelor: -23.96 on the floor; -13.26 off the floor

Of course I didn't think we would need to discuss freshman Noah Batchelor until he played 22 minutes against Michigan. If you remember him, he didn't score from the field but set up a couple of scores, drew a foul on Hunter and forced him into two turnovers. That was the point of the game when Michigan (gasp) didn't get to score every time down the court. He also finished that game with 3 points and an ORtg of 55. Batchelor started the next game at Rutgers but was pulled after 10 minutes that was only a foul and a turnover away from a box score trillion.

THE TEMPO FREE

This is where I post the shot chart from the UCLA blowout again:

Maryland's defense has fallen from 19th to 34th while their foul rate shot up in the last four games. What happened in those games? Let's see:

• Hunter Dickinson goes off for 32 points, 13/16 from 2.
• Rutgers rim protector Clifford Omoruyi shuts down Julian Reese. UMD has 20 turnovers, just 9 free throws, and 46 jumpers.
• Zed Key-less Ohio State plays small for all but 12 minutes, allows Maryland to rebound 42% of their misses.
• Iowa's Kris Murray (19 points) and Tony Perkins (22 points) get all but 9 of those points at the rim.

They need a big.

THE KEYS

Michigan is 5-0 against Maryland in Hunter Dickinson vs Donta Scott games. [Campredon]

Rebound like you just lost to CMU. Maryland is a collection of bad shooters and glass warriors. Michigan held the Terps to their lowest OReb rate all year (19%).

Attack the rim like you just lost to CMU. Whatever fuels Hunter Dickinson's (and to a lesser degree Terrance Williams's) irrational hatred of home, let it flow through you.

Do not let them into the lane like you just lost to CMU. If anything they're even more reliant now on Jahmir Young. Young free throws against Michigan: zero. Keep a center by the basket.

2Big2Small. Michigan's been responding to small ball by playing Reed with Dickinson and crashing the boards. As yet nobody's been able to knock down enough shots from outside to punish that.

Don't have a game where a team of 28% shooters go 23/35 from three. The way Maryland turns the lineup disparity around is if they go five wings and Donta Scott is nailing triples faster than Hunter can produce his doubles.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

If there was ever a day when Ken's numbers don't tell the story…

Really?

Okay. Rules are rules.

Maryland by 4.