Oh for Pete's sakes there's basketball today.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Maryland got a bit of a reality check in December after an 8-0 start under new head coach/Rick Pitino acolyte Kevin Willard had Terpville uttering crazy words like Back. First Willard found out what getting Wisconsin'd at Wisconsin feels like. Then his team went to Brooklyn, fell behind 34-17 to #3 Tennessee at halftime, and clawed their way back to within 2 with 24 seconds left with a chance to tie on their last possession. Then #4 UCLA came to visit and slaughtered them inside because Maryland doesn't have a guy over 6'9" who's playable.

A pallet-cleansing blowout of Saint Peter's restored any shaken confidence, but #226 UMBC was within striking distance all game last Thursday before the Terps covered that up with a couple of 12-2 runs. Buddy, what's your secret?

Michigan got a giant reality check on Thursday when they fucked around with a supra-200 mid-major for a fifth time this season, and will find out that Quad-4 loss at home to end a nonconference season with zero resume wins means you have to win 75% of your Big Ten games to have a hope of making the Tournament now. Two wins in a four-game stretch with Maryland and Penn State at home, followed by MSU and Iowa on the road, would be in line with projections. A victory over any of them would be Michigan's best of the season. I know it's literally the first day of the year, but if they are scratching to save 2023 in a couple of months, a pair of centers that Dickinson previously stuffed in a body bag seems a likely spot to look back on for a "oooh, if only we had That one."

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

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Kobe Bufkin gets a star. Hunter Dickinson's crown has been temporarily relocated to a position 1 foot above the basket, to be retrieved at his convenience.

THE LINEUP CARD

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As in past years Donta Scott moves down to the post when Maryland's de jure center needs a breather. The Terps actually started the last two games in their small look with Ian Martinez at the two, bumping Hart and Carey to SF and PF respectively. We're guessing that was for UMBC and Saint Peter's (center heights: 6'8" and 6'9"), and Reese returns to face Dickinson.

THE THEM

The good news another of Maryland's forever wings is finally gone, as Eric Ayala finally had enough of college, tried the draft, and ended up Iceland. The bad is Willard seems to have done a much better job than his predecessor at portaling in a point guard.

We'll start with the PG, where they picked up three-year high-usage Charlotte starter Jahmir Young after he pulled his name out of the draft. Thus far every aspect of his Conf-USA efficiency has transitioned, except he's shooting seven points under his career 35% average from the arc, which is probably just sample size—he's 4/18 on the year on unguarded catch & shoot jumpers, and 44% career. Young gets to the rim, draws contact, hits his free throws, creates, doesn't commit fouls or turn the ball over much, and was over a 1 PPP on contested spot-ups last year despite average size. The UCLA disaster wasn't his fault; Young got Tyger Campbell in foul trouble and held him to 8 points and 1 assist. His Synergy numbers show a history of pick & roll issues that can be shrugged at since Charlotte wasn't a good defensive team.

The next two guys should familiar to all. Donta Scott remains a burly 4 who gets called into small-ball 5 duty so Maryland doesn't have to carry a second center. You may remember Scott as the guy who went 5/5 from the arc against Michigan a couple of years ago, en route to an incredible 44% on 100+ threes. That fell back to his career level of 30% last year, which is where he's been this year as well. Scott's block rate is up and his assist rate is back up to 2020-'21 levels after disappearing from his game last year. Last year Dickinson put Qudus Wahab on the bench then went to work on Scott to engineer a blowout. Scott still takes the plurality of late shots, and still gets more than his share to fall.

The other familiar face is winger Hakim Hart, who remains as frighteningly efficient as ever while incrementing his usage up to "present." That additional usage has mostly been from developing a rapport with Young, who likes to feed Hart in transition or after a breaking into the lane when Maryland's playing small. The development this year is Hart's defense, where he's finally managed to turn his above-average height into an advantage. A major improvement in Hart's defensive rebounding has also allowed Willard to roll with his small lineup longer, though this could be competition-related.

The new center is Julian Reese, who was already starting to steal minutes from Wahab when we met last year. Like Scott, Reese is playing undersized at the five—he's still the same 6'9"/230 he was listed at as a freshman last year. Unlike Scott, Reese plays like a center—he doesn't shoot many threes (7/23 career) but he's a monster on the boards, finishing 28th nationally and 3rd in the conference in offensive rebound rate last year. Caveat: he does a lot of that damage against overmatched opponents; Reese had 7 vs Coppin State and 6 total against Illinois, UCLA, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. He has developed a handful of post moves that improved his 2P% from 48 to 71. Oddly his free throw shooting was great last year (80%) but he's missed half this season.

Finally Georgetown (and Mount St. Mary's and Siena before that) transfer Donald Carey has taken on a Just-a-Shooter role this year, except he's making just 28% of them this season from a career average of 37% and 2020-'21 high of 45%. As with Young, that appears to just be an early season blip. He's an excellent free throw shooter, an able if light defender, and a decent complement to more ball-dominant teammates.

The Bench:

Onetime Utah transfer Ian Martinez has grown into a full 6th man, playing about 20 MPG and starting at the 2 when they go small. The reason he's not starting over Carey is Martinez in definitively NOT a creator, generating less than an assist per 40 minutes to 3 turnovers. He does draw fouls, but is three times as likely to lose the ball when he goes barreling into the paint. He'll put up a three if it's uncontested but it's a T-Will-level shot that's separated from his 30% career mark by a 4/5 night against UCLA's backups.

Patrick Emilien is yet another wing-sized dude who plays like a center. The Canadian was a three-year bench player for WMU before a year at St Francis spent waiting to clean up at the rim. He did most of damage on putbacks, but doesn't mind hopping back for a short jumper. He's only 35% on those, but took a lot of them last year and hasn't gotten that out of his system in this new one.

The last guy getting regular minutes is combo G Jahari Long. Long is a junior who followed Willard from Seton Hall, where they were trying to turn him into a super-sized PG. He will spend about 10 MPG at the point and another cycle at the two, mostly looking to dish. His astronomical turnover rate at Seton Hall has only come down into Dug territory.

Everyone else is a freshman they'll play if things get out of hand.

THE TEMPO FREE

Willard is a defensive-minded coach and will change up looks enough to frustrate an offense that doesn't have a good plan—they're 346th in average defensive possession length this year, and most of Willard's Seton Hall teams were in that range as well. I know it's not something a team with a true freshman PG wants to hear in early January, but you have to run offense to get efficient shots on these guys.

I think the numbers above are little soft because of the brutal recent schedule and a spate of cold shooting from the arc. Maryland has several guys who will destroy you if you don't get them boxed out, a five-out offense when they can afford to be, and a point guard who takes advantage of space without turning it over too much.

THE KEYS

For the love of all things BOX OUT. The CMU performance was hideous even by Michigan standards, but

Especially you, Jett. A 6.7 DREB rate for a guy who's 6'8" and can jump like he can is a Problem. A fixable one? Maybe not in a few days.

Channel your irrational hatred of home, Hunter. Last year in this meeting the big man had 21 points on 10/13 shooting and 6 assists despite not getting a single trip to the line. Wherever that beast lurks, it's past time to wake him up.

Just survive, Dug. You'd hate to put your still-learning freshman PG on their best scorer, but you can't put him on the 6'5" just-a-shooter, or the 6'8" not-just-a-shooter, so there you are.

Let Kobe Kobe. I couldn't deny him the star any longer, since he's been Michigan's best player during Hunter's slump. He's an absolutely necessary when the backup PG is in, and Michigan's best bucket. Auto-benching him against CMU was a tactical mistake.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES THAT I WOULD BE PREDICTING ANYWAY BECAUSE I HAVE WATCHED ANY 2022-23 MICHIGAN BASKETBALL GAME THIS YEAR.

Maryland by 1.