Hoops Preview: Illinois, Part 2
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#45 Michigan (12-7, 2-4 B1G) vs #74 Illinois (12-7, 2-4) |
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WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
WHEN | 2:15 pm ET, Saturday |
LINE |
Michigan -6 (KenPom) Michigan -7 (Vegas) |
TV |
BTN PBP: Kevin Kugler Analyst: Bob Wenzel |
Right: DJ Wilson was a bright spot in an otherwise dismal first matchup against Illinois. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]
THE US
Michigan needs seven or eight more conference wins out of their remaining 12 games to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid without making a huge run in the conference tourney. This is one of six games in which they're the outright favorite on KenPom; they must hold court at home.
In his press conference today, John Beilein suggested that some younger guys could get a chance if the team's veterans continue making freshman-like mistakes:
Beilein says there's going to come a time when recurring errors by veterans will just have to lead to a benching. Says team needs a spark
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) January 20, 2017
That was in response to Nick's question about Mark Donnal's missed blockouts against Wisconsin, so this may be the #FreeTeske game, and Beilein even mentioned rethinking Austin Davis' redshirt. Xavier Simpson's work on defense has probably earned him a longer look, as well. Ibi Watson has only been on the court for four minutes in conference play, so it doesn't seem like he's close to breaking through, but Beilein mentioned Zak Irvin's habit of driving into bad situations, so perhaps this is his time, too.
THE LAST TIME
It's rarely good when a game leads to a players-only meeting. That was the case after Michigan's 85-69 loss to Illinois, which was a defensive catastrophe. A mediocre Illini offense scored a season-best 1.42 points per possession, shot 64% from both inside and outside the arc, and rebounded eight of their 19 misses. Center Maverick Morgan, who called Michigan a "white-collar" team in the aftermath, made 8-of-9 field goals. Freshman reserve Kipper Nichols had 13 points and five offensive boards; he hasn't had more than four points or one offensive rebound in any of his other five appearances.
Michigan got solid outputs from DJ Wilson (19 points), Derrick Walton (11 points, 7 assists), and MAAR (14 points). Those weren't nearly enough to overcome the teamwide defensive effort and poor performances from Moe Wagner (6 points, 3 turnovers) and Duncan Robinson (2 points, 5 fouls).
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 13 | Tracy Abrams | Gr. | 6'2, 185 | 64 | 19 | 106 | No | |||||||||||
Robbie Hummel, Guard Edition. Learned how to shoot while hurt, somehow. First matchup: 24 mins, 4 pts (1/2 2p, 0/1 3p), 2 reb, 3 ast, 1 to, 1 stl |
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G | 5 | Jalen Coleman-Lands | So. | 6'3, 190 | 66 | 17 | 97 | No | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter™ is 43% on 3P in B1G play after rough start to season. First matchup: 31 mins, 12 pts (0/3 2p, 4/5 3p), 3 reb, 4 ast, 2 to |
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G | 21 | Malcolm Hill | Sr. | 6'6, 225 | 82 | 26 | 117 | No | |||||||||||
High-usage and efficient, versatile scorer. Draws a ton of fouls. First matchup: 32 mins, 15 pts (3/5 2p, 1/3 3p, 6/7 ft), 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 to |
|||||||||||||||||||
F | 12 | Leron Black | So. | 6'7, 220 | 44 | 24 | 106 | Very | |||||||||||
Excellent rebounder on both ends. Decent finisher who gets to line. First matchup: 17 mins, 10 pts (5/9 2p, 0/1 3p), 5 reb (1 off) |
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C | 22 | Maverick Morgan | Sr. | 6'10, 245 | 56 | 22 | 109 | Very | |||||||||||
Good finisher and shot-blocker, not much of a rebounder. First matchup: 29 mins, 16 pts (8/9 2p), 1 reb, 4 ast, 3 to, 1 blk, 1 stl |
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F | 2 | Kipper Nichols | Fr. | 6'6, 225 | 9 | 17 | 112 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Crushed M on boards in first matchup. Averaging 15 mins in last 4 games. First matchup: 19 mins, 13 pts (5/8 2p, 1/1 3p), 8 reb (5 off) |
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F | 43 | Michael Finke | So. | 6'10, 230 | 49 | 17 | 107 | No | |||||||||||
Stretch four with career 52/37/64 shooting splits. Good offensive rebounder. First matchup: 12 mins, 10 pts (2/2 2p, 2/2 3p), 3 reb (1 off) |
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G | 3 | Te'Jon Lucas | Fr. | 6'0, 170 | 23 | 19 | 98 | Not Really | |||||||||||
Pass-first slasher getting larger role lately. First matchup: 23 mins, 5 pts (1/1 2p, 1/1 3p), 1 reb, 8 ast, 1 to, 1 stl |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
The Michigan win hasn't launched Illinois into Big Ten contention. In their two games since, they lost by six at home to Maryland and were blown out at Purdue. They're tied with Michigan at 2-4 in the conference standings.
The first game's preview has much of the necessary detail on Illinois's lineup. They've made a couple changes to the rotation since the Michigan game. Center Maverick Morgan moved into the starting lineup over Mike Thorne in the first matchup and hasn't left it since. After the two played a relatively even split to start the season, Morgan has taken a 61% share of the minutes in conference play and thrived, while Thorne has struggled in his increasingly limited time on the court.
Two freshmen who had excellent games against Michigan, point guard Te'Jon Lucas and forward Kipper Nichols, have moved past a pair of seniors—Thorne and Jaylon Tate—in the rotation. Lucas is a pass-first slasher who's cut down on his turnover issues while still posting a sky-high assist rate; he finishes well around the rim and is good for one or two steals a game. Nichols is 0-for-6 from the field with two offensive boards in 29 minutes since his breakout game against the Wolverines. We'll see if John Groce tries to recapture the magic or goes with more extended minutes for Thorne and stretch four Michael Finke, who's been red-hot in Big Ten play.
THE TEMPO-FREE
I'm switching over to conference-only numbers. Brace yourselves. These are six-game samples for both teams.
This is a matchup of the two worst defenses in the conference. One would think Michigan's decided offensive advantage would push them past Illinois, which has failed to crack one point per possession in three of their six Big Ten games, but... well, the first game happened.
THE KEYS
Keep playing post defense. Michigan's post defense was leaps and bounds better against Wisconsin that it was in the first Illinois matchup. That can't become a one-game thing. If Wagner and Wilson are as locked in on defense as they were on Tuesday night, this will be an entirely different game.
Get Wilson involved. In the two games since DJ Wilson put up 19 points (7/10 2P, 1/2 3P) on the Illini, he's scored only 11—all in the Nebraska game—and has only attempted four shots inside the arc. Michigan's best games tend to coincide with efficient performances from Wilson, who'll have a considerable size advantage against most Illini lineups. Purdue crushed Illinois on the interior Tuesday, and while Michigan's interior duo isn't the caliber of Haas-Swanigan, they should be the focal point of the offense until the Illini prove they can stop them.
Box the **** out. If Kipper freakin' Nichols grabs five offensive rebounds again I'm going to lose my damn mind.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 6.
Illinois made 9-of-14 threes in the first matchup. They're 26-for-97 (27%) in their other five Big Ten games. Michigan can't get lit up from beyond the arc every game, right?
Right?
ELSEWHERE
WojBomb: Indiana's OG Anunoby is out for the season with a knee injury. Michigan plays the first of their two games against the Hoosiers on Thursday at Crisler.
January 20th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^
Everyone's been losing their minds about the three point defense, and it is bad, but it's not fatally bad. What's murdered us is all the dribble penetration and horrific rebounding. If this team would actually put a body on a body when the other team shoots, we'd have an entirely different outlook on the season.
BOX THE FUCK OUT
January 20th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
I'm encouraged by Beilein's presser comments. This team really does need to turn a page toward its youth. They still have a decreasingly outside shot at the Dance, but I'm looking more toward the future at this point, whatever the short-term cost.
January 20th, 2017 at 4:17 PM ^
January 20th, 2017 at 9:00 PM ^
January 20th, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^
when i was a kid, i loved UM hoops.
<end transmission>
January 20th, 2017 at 4:55 PM ^
I'm in. I would sit Irvin and Donnal. Teske looked like an upgrade when he did see playing time. He definitely showed more aggressiveness. Irvin off the bench and Simpson starting should be looked at. I agree that the offense needs to funnel through D.J. and Moritz as much as possible. Go Blue!!!
January 20th, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^
should be benched permanently. He wouldn't even be in Ball State's rotation.
The only way he should ever play again is if the entire team fouls out.
January 20th, 2017 at 11:06 PM ^
January 21st, 2017 at 10:22 AM ^
About playing the youngens.
However, anytime Teske is on the court, he's looked beyond lost. I'm not seeing any of that "aggressive" stuff you are seeing. He doesn't know where to go.
January 20th, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^
January 20th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
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January 20th, 2017 at 6:18 PM ^
January 20th, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^
The surest sign of a program in decline is one that can't consistently get its players to go all out. That's a major reason why we can feel good about the football team: As grim as things looked in the first quarter against FSU, they dug in and nearly pulled it out.
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January 21st, 2017 at 3:05 AM ^
January 20th, 2017 at 9:29 PM ^
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January 20th, 2017 at 7:22 PM ^
January 20th, 2017 at 8:47 PM ^
says it all about Beilein's lack of discipline and accountability. The fact that recurring errors have been allowed and accepted so freely from anyone on the team, let alone veterans, is the exact reason this team has played such undisciplined, careless, uninspired basketball for several years. Only when we've had players who were leaders and/or kept themselves and teammates accountable (Novak, Trey, Jmo) have we been a remotely disciplined team.
Players focus and learn when accountable. There's been a lack of accountability for too long.
If we replace Beilien with a better coach, we're going to hear a lot of comments like we heard of the football team the past two years: that they never knew what it meant to work and practice and be accountable like they know now. And/or it'll be a Hoosier-like (the movie) exodus of players that don't want to put the effort in.
January 21st, 2017 at 7:30 AM ^
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January 20th, 2017 at 9:31 PM ^
January 20th, 2017 at 11:10 PM ^
January 21st, 2017 at 12:16 PM ^
Is frustrated by the play of his seniors too. I hope it leads to better play by Irvin and Walton rather than having to rely too much on the younger guys. Just compete!
GO BLUE!!
January 21st, 2017 at 12:18 PM ^
Cuz boy is checked out! See what I did there?
January 21st, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^
January 21st, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^
out of this team. The defense has not improved, and in fact has gotten worse. There has been improvement from Wilson and Wagner, but Donnal has regressed, and all of the other experienced players have been inconsistent. A team with this many 3rd and 4th years guys should not be struggling so much. And on top of that, this is probably the poorest performance from a freshman class that we've seen in a long time. It's not a GREAT class, but when you lose 5 guys and get virtually no meaningful contribution from the newbies, it's hard to succeed against teams whose freshmen are chipping in right away.
JB just seems to have lost the handle on this team. I guess we'll see next year if this was just an anomaly, but if things don't improve by then, he probably needs to think about stepping aside gracefully.
January 21st, 2017 at 1:47 PM ^
January 21st, 2017 at 1:53 PM ^
Is Walton good to go? He took a hard fall at the end of the UW game.
January 21st, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^
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