Your author's work week obligations have been mostly concentrated on football throughout the fall season, which has left limited time for in-depth hockey analysis. I had planned to give you a lot more of it after football season ended, which I, like many, presumed would be last Saturday. Well, as we now know, that did not happen, which means that another week of FFFF is in the cards. As a result, I cannot give you as detailed of a piece as I was hoping for. That said, since it has now been over a month since my last hockey column, I wanted to put one out anyway, albeit a shorter one, to update everyone on where the hockey season stands now, entering the month of December. I know football is the only thing that matters in Michigan-land right now, and I'm as happy as anyone that that's the case, but the hockey team is still pretty good. So with that in mind, let me give you the updates. 

The Last Month, Recapped

Michigan Hockey stands at 12-4 on the season, ranked #3 in the country in this week's USCHO poll. Their record should really be 11-2-3, since Pairwise counts OT wins as 55% of a regulation win and OT losses as 45% of a regulation win (basically, ties) and Michigan has one OT win and two OT losses. In the B1G, Michigan is 5-1-2 with a Pts % of .708, a shade ahead of Minnesota and Ohio State, who sit at .667. Though it is far, far too early to take Pairwise seriously for national implications (a good rule of thumb is that PWR starts mattering after New Year's Day), Michigan is #2 in the country in that metric, which would put them in line for a 1st overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

The Wolverines have gotten to this point by generally playing pretty well, but with some frustrating results mixed in. Our last column came when the team was 4-0 after winning the IceBreaker Tournament in Duluth, MN. Since that point, the Wolverines split with a Western Michigan team that looks excellent (ranked #6 nationally), split with a Wisconsin team that looks terrible (by far Michigan's worst loss of the season), swept MSU, PSU, and Niagara, and then blew two 2-0 leads to Notre Dame to lose both games in OT. In a perfect world, you would've liked to see Michigan beat Wisconsin and win at least one of those Notre Dame games to be 14-2 (13-1-2), but unfortunately this is not a perfect world and there are areas to improve on, which we'll get into. 

Erik Portillo = Good [James Coller]

The Good

What's going well for Michigan? At the surface level, it seems like everything. They have a +32 goal differential in 16 games, outscoring opponents by a full two goals per game. Six players are either above, at, or barely below the 1.00 points per game clip (Johnson, Power, Beniers, Brisson, Bordeleau, Hughes). Michigan owns the #1 offense in college hockey among teams who have played at least 14 games. Michigan's PP is firing at 31.7%, 3rd best in the country. Michigan's goaltender, Erik Portillo, has a 2.17 GAA and a .920 SV%, and Michigan is allowing just 2.25 goals against per game, which puts them in the top ten of the NCAA among teams who have played at least 14 games. 

In terms of individual recognition, there's a lot to be happy about. Owen Power has already surpassed his entire point total from last season, and Luke Hughes has been a delight, the most electric player on Michigan's roster: 

Luke Hughes just dangling down the center pic.twitter.com/QOzQYehO27

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) November 20, 2021

Matty Beniers has suddenly transformed into a sniper on the PP, shoveling in seven PPGs, good for 2nd in the NCAA. Here's a taste: 

? BENIERS slapshots another, giving Michigan the 2-0 lead pic.twitter.com/vl541JbX0W

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) November 5, 2021

Brendan Brisson remains immensely dangerous from everywhere, and those two are tied for the team lead in goals. Michigan is also starting to get more from its depth guys, with Mackie Samoskevich in particular coming on like a hurricane in recent weeks, legitimately looking like Michigan's best forward recently: 

Samoskevich with goal 2️⃣ for the Wolverines pic.twitter.com/Y3DbagG1UF

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) October 30, 2021

Samo's shot is a laser, and when you combine it with his hands and his skating, you understand why the Florida Panthers saw first round talent from him. Similarly, Dylan Duke is another freshman who we're starting to see more from, doing good work on the boards in the offensive zone and around the net: 

Nick Blankenburg bangs in a Dylan Duke chance. Owen Power gets it started - his 6th straight game with a point pic.twitter.com/8ptZCsK3Xc

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) November 21, 2021

Michigan also got Johnny Beecher back from injury recently and he's been a breath of fresh air for the Wolverines. Between Beecher, Duke, and Samoskevich, we're starting to see depth scoring emerge for this team that's taken the load off of the Sophomore big guns, which was precisely the hope with this team when we learned who the roster consisted of. Before we move on, I would be remiss if I didn't show you an Erik Portillo clip, because Michigan's netminder has been dazzling this season: 

Erik Portillo made this @umichhockey save in a split second! ? pic.twitter.com/6FM1Kgsm3e

— Michigan On BTN (@MichiganOnBTN) November 12, 2021

Strauss Mann who? There has been next to no drop off in Michigan's crease this season. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The not-so-good, and some previews]

Less of this please [James Coller]

Areas for Improvement 

So if all this is going well, then why does this team need to improve at all? Because right now, they're mostly out-talenting their opposition. The quality of play from a fundamentals, coaching standpoint is not where you want it to be at all. It hasn't really mattered, because Michigan has so many more weapons than their opponents, but several teams Michigan's faced (Notre Dame notably) have been better coached than Michigan. The Wolverines allow far too many high-danger chances than I'd like to see for a team of their talent level, and don't possess the puck as much as a team with their talent level should. For example, Michigan sits 7th in even strength Corsi For% (a stand-in for puck possession), which still is very good, but when you've got the most talented players in the NCAA by a country mile, you should not be 7th. You should be 1st or 2nd. 

When so many big pieces came back to school this summer, my hope was that we would see this Michigan team look like the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings, a dominant puck possession team who ranks 1st or 2nd in both offense and defense. A team with great special teams, that controls possession and only allows ~18 shots a game (of which only a couple are great looks), while getting ~30 shots themselves per game (of which 5-10 are great looks). Right now, that's not what Michigan is. Rather, outside of the Duluth weekend, the Wolverines have been content to play firewagon hockey that sees them get a lot of good looks but also the opponent get a lot of good looks. They've made it work because Michigan has a better goalie and better finishers than 95% of their opposition, but I am concerned how this style will hold up against the cream of the crop. 

Moreover, I'd be content to trade odd-man rush chances if that's what was actually happening. Instead, a lot of the chances Michigan gives up are not the result of playing style, but sloppiness and a lack of attention to details. Turnovers in the defensive zone, trying to be too cute in the offensive zone, and a lack of awareness where to be around their own net is an issue. Mel Pearson has a lot of room for improvement with the team defense, because right now the only reason Michigan is a top ten defensive team is Erik Portillo. They need to make life easier on their goalie moving forward.  

The good news is that Mel Pearson's Michigan teams have consistently been better in the second half of the season than the first half: 

2017-18: 8-8-2 in the first half vs.14-7-0 in the second half

2018-19: 6-7-6 in the first half vs. 6-9-1 in the second half

2019-20: 7-11-2 in the first half vs. 11-7-2 in the second half 

2020-21: 5-5-0 in the first half vs. 10-5-0 in the second half

With the exception of '18-19, which was prevented from having a breakout second half because they lost their best forward and heartbeat of their team (Josh Norris) to a season-ending injury right around the midway point of the season, Pearson's Michigan teams have gotten dramatically better each year. My hope was that since he finally had a cohesive roster returning for a second season nearly in its entirety, we wouldn't have to go through the "why does this team not get the fundamentals?" stage of the season, but alas.

The optimistic take is that because Michigan has now amassed so much talent, they're bound to go into the Christmas break with a significantly better record than they ever have had previously under Mel at that juncture of the season. And if this team improves the same amount as the '21, '20, or '18 teams did in the second half, this '22 team will be unbeatable by the time March rolls around. It's just very frustrating that it feels like we're back to square zero on the fundamentals despite a roster consisting 75% of the same guys who just 8 months ago were playing far more sound and detail-oriented hockey than they are now. 

These were fun matchups last year. Should be fun again this weekend [Patrick Barron]

The Crucial Next Two Weeks

Michigan now gets an incredibly important two week stretch of games before the holiday break that will do quite a lot to write the narrative of this first half, facing Minnesota and then Ohio State, the two teams directly behind them in the standings. Entering the season, Minnesota was thought to be Michigan's primary rival for the B1G title, and they probably still are. It's just that the trajectory of the year has been a bit more choppier than I anticipated. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are outperforming expectations so far in the conference off the back of their goalie. Here's a short preview of each: 

Minnesota: The Gophers are the only team in the conference anywhere remotely in the same ballpark as Michigan in terms of NHL talent. Every one of their starting defensemen are drafted (most in the top two rounds), and their top forwards are all drafted too (mostly later rounds though). Returning nearly their entire defensive corps from last season, as well as the reigning B1G Goalie of the Year in Old Friend Jack LaFontaine, it seemed like this was going to be a dominant defensive team. So far it hasn't been, allowing 2.62 goals per game. That number isn't bad, but it's significant regression from last year's 2.07 goals per game allowed. JLF would appear to be the problem, with his save percentage dropping from .934 to .899 (!). He's facing close to the same number of shots, it's just that more of them are going in.

Minnesota has regressed offensively too, which was expected because they did lose real talent there. They're still waiting for Winnipeg 1st rounder Fr. Chaz Lucius to really get going, although Toronto 2nd rounder Fr. Matthew Knies has been an instant impact piece. Minnesota swept Notre Dame and has otherwise split with OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin. In the non-conference they've played a loaded schedule, splitting with St. Cloud and North Dakota and getting swept by Duluth. This is a good Gophers team, but not as good as Michigan right now, and with the series being at Yost, two wins would be huge. 

Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been one of the conference's surprise teams so far this season, cobbling together a solid season after a disastrous 2020-21. Their list of results is a little strange, with losses to Atlantic Hockey teams like Bentley and Mercyhurst (very bad results) but also split with Minnesota and swept Penn State (good results). The story for OSU has been the play of their freshmen, notably goaltender Jakub Dobeš, who has been excellent so far. A .931 SV% says a lot, and the team as a whole has been remarkably stingy, allowing only 2.00 goals against per game. The offense has come from everywhere, with no standout scorers, but a deep lineup players who all can contribute. Thirteen different players have scored at least two goals, while no one has scored more than four (!). Again freshman lead the way, with Georgii Merkulov and Mason Lohrei being the team's top two point-getters as freshman. OSU has had a habit of battling back this season, winning multiple games in which they trailed by multiple goals early on. Having seen how Michigan choked away two games in that mold against the Fighting Irish, this could be a trap series in Columbus before the team exits the first half.