Michigan Hockey went to Minneapolis this weekend knowing they needed at least one victory to stay in the hunt for the NCAA Tournament. After being tied following the first period on Friday, the Wolverines put together a lackluster and uninspiring latter two periods and were felled by the Gophers 6-2, losing their goalie in the process. On the heels of that, Saturday needed to be an all-hands-on-deck, emphatic performance. For two periods it was, but then came another third period collapse, albeit this one being nearly all goaltending. Michigan gave up five goals in the third but still made it to OT, where Seamus Casey won it for Michigan. Not ideal, but they got a lot of help elsewhere in college hockey and are still alive for the NCAA Tournament. For right now, in this seesaw season of adversity, there are worse places to be. 

 

HockeyBullets from Minnesota 

- About Friday night. Friday's game was a bit of an odd one, Michigan getting on the board first before a couple of iffy goals gave Minnesota the lead. A really nice play by Rutger McGroarty helped keep the puck in and set up a Garrett Schifsky equalizer to make the score tied just before the period break. It felt like Michigan didn't play great in that first period, but both teams were sloppy and the score was tied. It was okay. The first seven or so minutes of the second period were rather tepid, not a ton going on, then Michigan went on the PK and: 

Corner Pocket 🎱 pic.twitter.com/0bNZnkcaX9

— Minnesota Men’s Hockey (@GopherHockey) March 2, 2024

We would see a similar one to this on Saturday, but this goal cannot go in. It really seemed to take the wind out of Michigan's sails and for some reason, they lost their legs in the second half of the game once they were again trailing Minnesota. Michigan looked small and slow against the Gophers, who had more jump and urgency, disappointing for a Michigan team that was fighting for its life while Minnesota wasn't. They were getting outworked in the corners, outskated, and kept taking penalties, while questionable goaltending continued to harm the scoreboard. Barczewski had a down game and then got run into on an unintentional (possibly friendly fire) collision with a Gopher. He did not return for the third period (and then missed Saturday's game) but Michigan trailed by 5-2 by that time.

Michigan never really made a push and they lost 6-2. It was a bad effort but thankfully they responded with a marvelous first period on Saturday. Before we get to the second game, I want to note that Michigan allowed three power play goals just one week after I praised the Michigan penalty kill. Cause for alarm? I don't really think so. Part of it was some degree of mean reversion, as Michigan wasn't going to continue killing nearly every penalty the rest of the season. Related: a lot of it puck luck and bad goaltending. That goal I showed was one of the three PPGs against. That's entirely on Barczewski. The second goal involved a monster bounce off the end boards, while the third was a puck battle/scrum that eventually went in. *shrug* The hallmarks of Michigan's earlier poor PK from the first half of the season, the unrestricted puck movement, the inability to suppress A+ chances, none of that happened here so I don't think we need to sound the alarms.

[AFTER THE JUMP: More talking points]

[Bill Rapai]

- Analyzing Saturday's third period collapse: What was odd about giving up five goals in the third period of the Saturday game is that unlike all the rest of the collapses this year, this one had a completely unique narrative. Michigan's lineup of skaters actually played a solid third period defensively, two glaring errors but salting away the other ~19.5 minutes without much in the way of danger. They also scored a goal, so if you're breaking down the period from the standpoint of the skaters, the bottom line looks like one goal for and two very dangerous chances ceded. They entered the third period with a three goal lead, that formula should've been enough to win in regulation. 

It wasn't enough because of Noah West, a character who hasn't figured much into past collapses because he's barely played this season as the backup goaltender. West was pretty good through the first two periods, looked plenty sharp and composed, to the point that I had a (mostly joking) GOALIE CONTROVERSY??? segment for the HockeyCast in the back of my mind after the second period. But the period was utter despair from West, aside from his stellar save when Michigan ceded a 2v0 chance after some disastrous neutral zone play. That was one of the two ugly chances Michigan's defense allowed, with West bailing them out on that one. 

But West also allowed several atrocious goals that cannot go in. The first one, from Jaxon Nelson: 

An absolute laser from the captain! pic.twitter.com/mJLIWCL1RE

— Minnesota Men’s Hockey (@GopherHockey) March 3, 2024

West cedes the top corner short-side as Nelson comes down the wing and to the credit of Minnesota's captain, he picks that corner with a nice shot. Problem is, West cannot be ceding that spot in the net, not on a shot from that far out that he can see all the way. I am certainly not a goaltending expert but from my vantage point it seemed like he was standing a little hunched over, exposing that top corner. Which is interesting, because on this next goal he's not hunched over and instead is standing rather tall, leaving some room down low: 

Jaxon is ON ONE rn pic.twitter.com/AeDqIzg4eC

— Minnesota Men’s Hockey (@GopherHockey) March 3, 2024

Goals like this happen from time to time (like say, the previous night on Barczewski) and they are ugly every single time. Cannot go in. 

The end-boards bounce I thought was trickier because it requires the goalie to pick up the bounce on something that happens behind him, but still was not a great look from West: 

IT'S SO LOUD IN HERE pic.twitter.com/Pt8Pya92I9

— Minnesota Men’s Hockey (@GopherHockey) March 3, 2024

Just a moment too late getting back to his post costs him. Thus, the collapse to go from up 3-0/4-1 to tied with six minutes to go was almost completely on West. That got Michigan in the mess, but they then tacked on one more goal to make it 5-4 with under four minutes to play and that should've been enough to finish this game off. But that's where the second defensive breakdown came into play, Gavin Brindley letting this pass through him and Rutger McGroarty, who had just scored the huge goal, phasing out when he's the only defender not glued to the wall: 

THIS GAME pic.twitter.com/qnAQI7vchG

— Minnesota Men’s Hockey (@GopherHockey) March 3, 2024

Brutal, brutal stuff. I don't think this one can be too lumped into all the other collapses that Michigan has had this year because it played out pretty differently and wasn't necessarily on the skaters. But, it was a rough one all the same and another piece of disconcerting evidence that this team just can't quit 3rd period collapses. For one reason or another, goaltending, defense, whatever it is, things just keep going wrong when it's time to close a game out. I think there are reasons to be very frustrated by that, while still having some degree of satisfaction that Michigan played pretty solid defense for a lot of that 3rd period, and looked more calm in that game-state than they had in many previous attempts. With competent goaltending, it would've been a comfortable, multi-goal victory. 

- Seamus Casey saved the day. In spite of that meltdown, Michigan still managed to win. Which wasn't ideal, because a regulation win is worth more for pairwise than an OT win (although it's not a huge gap since this was on the road), but it was still badly needed. The OT goal came on a 4v3 PP from Seamus Casey, sniping it from a tricky angle. Casey was probably Michigan's MVP in this game, scoring two goals and I wanted to mention it because Casey has been rather quiet offensively recently. Here was his first goal: 

Casey from McGroarty and Brindley, another Michigan power-play goal! #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/OShcQOva5M

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 3, 2024

That's the kind of goal you have to be able to score against good defensive teams and there is a real skill to getting a shot through from the point, wiggling it through traffic. Casey also had an assist on the Brindley goal in the third period, so it was a three point night, notable since that was more points than Casey had accumulated in his prior nine games combined. Casey's 38 points remains among the best among defensemen in college hockey, but he has slowed down significantly in the second half. Those were his first goals since January 19 and he hadn't had a truly impactful offensive game since the start of February. 

Scoring isn't the only way to be impactful offensively, but at some point you expect a rushing defenseman to have a hand in pucks going in the net. With Casey it is especially so, since his defensive game has never been a feature and his size leaves him exposed in the defensive end. He needs to be driving scoring to be delivering for Michigan. Moreover, Casey is still one of Michigan's best players, regardless of the slump and when your season is on the line, you need your best players to step up. It was nice to see that from Casey on Saturday in a must-win game and I hope he keeps it going this coming weekend. 

 

Updated NCAA Tournament Picture 

Here's the new Pairwise Probability Matrix, via our friends at College Hockey News: 

There are 18 teams with more than an infinitesimal chance of making it in as an at-large squad and they are the 18 featured above. Michigan currently sits 13th, which would almost certainly be in the NCAA Tournament if it started today (regrettably, it does not). Their 69% chance of making it in is marginally higher than last week, when Michigan sat at 65%, reflecting last weekend's "holding pattern" results. Michigan didn't knock it out of the park, but they did enough to hold their position considering all the help they got. That help in short order: Denver swept St. Cloud, NoDak swept WMU, UMass was taken to OT twice by Lowell, Providence split with Merrimack, and Cornell dropped a game to Union. After two weeks of no one we cheered for in Peter's rooting guide winning, this weekend was a pleasant turnaround.  

The current picture that the matrix spells out is similar to last week, Michigan having almost no chance of jumping up to the 2-line but a solid probability of moving up to the 3-line. There's a small chance that Michigan stays on the 4-line and slips in to face one of those NCHC teams (NoDak/Denver) in a first round matchup that the opponent would not be pleased about. Elsewhere in the B1G, MSU/Wisconsin have outside shots at being 1 seeds but are more likely to be 2s. Minnesota is likely locked into being a 2, while the teams below Michigan in the B1G standings would have to win the BTT, which is a very slim probability of happening. B1G is either a 3 or 4 bid league this year, depending on the Maize & Blue. 

The bubble remains very tight between 10th and 15th, UMass, Providence, CC, Michigan, WMU, and St. Cloud. In RPI, those teams are very much bunched up, so every weekend is critical. Cornell at 16th is a curious case, a team that has very little chance of moving up to getting an at-large spot but could very easily win the ECAC Tournament and get an autobid because they are the 2nd best team in the conference. They also may have to beat Quinnipiac to win that conference, which would provide them the Pairwise boost needed to get in anyway. Omaha and UNH remain on the outside, but you can't totally write them off because they play in top notch leagues, where a hot run down the stretch could get them in. 

 

Notre Dame, Again 

We now have matchups set for the B1G Tournament: 

Congrats to the Michigan State Spartans, who won their first B1G Regular Season Championship by splitting with Wisconsin in Madison this weekend. The Friday night 44/46 performance from Trey Augustine was the final piece to the puzzle to get the Spartans some hardware and they have thus clinched the top seed in the BTT. Wisconsin falls to #2, where they will host Ohio State. Since the conference expanded to seven teams in 2017-18, no #7 seed has ever taken a game off #2, let alone win the round. This year feels like there's a real chance, as Ohio State has been reasonably hot down the stretch and they actually swept Wisconsin only a few weeks back (also split with MSU). Minnesota/Penn State in the 3/6 matchup is also one where you can imagine an upset, but Penn State hasn't been good recently and had a dud outing against Minny last time. We'll see. 

As for Michigan, they now get a showdown with Notre Dame. Best two out of three, season on the line. Losing to the Irish likely KOs Michigan from the tourney, whereas a sweep could put the Wolverines on the brink of a bid to the NCAAs. Connor Earegood ran CHN's probability simulator and found that a Michigan sweep gets the Wolverines to 10th in PWR while winning 2 of 3 likely holds their position (splitting leaves them 14th but we don't know exactly what taking 2 of 3 would do because the 3rd game hasn't been scheduled yet). Doesn't get any bigger than this and it's taking place in a building where ND has traditionally owned Michigan: Yost Ice Arena. However, as people with reasonable memories will recall, Michigan finally conquered Notre Dame at Yost a couple weekends ago. The Irish didn't play last weekend and were sitting at home, so this will be four (or maybe even five) straight against Michigan for ND. 

[Bill Rapai]

Therefore, nothing much has changed in our assessment of Notre Dame. Here's what I wrote in this column two weeks ago when we were getting ready for that matchup: 

Despite the aura of past traumas, this ND team is pretty mid. They are 21st in Pairwise, 15-15-2 on the season, about as mediocre as you can be. They've had their moments, including wins over MSU and BU, in addition to a beatdown they laid on Michigan in early December, but also are a sub-.500 team in conference play. They ain't that good! The Irish don't score many goals, 93 in total in 32 games and 18 of them are from Landon Slaggert. No one else is in double figures for the Irish, a team that is shooting only 8.9% as a team and this is a team that doesn't shoot a ton to begin with. Like last season, they lean heavily on star goalie Ryan Bischel, who has a .929 SV% and holds the roof up for Notre Dame

Michigan held them to one goal in the two game series, so you can update that to 94 goals in 34 games. 18 are still from Slaggert, while the one against Michigan was scored by Danny Nelson, their highest drafted player (2nd rounder - NYI), who has 9. Their shooting percentage is now down to 8.6% as a team but Bischel's save percentage is holding strong at .927. They remain a firmly mediocre squad that Michigan should be able to beat. The Wolverines took three of four over the Irish in the regular season, but as the Saturday game in that series at Yost showed, a nailbiter that came down to a late Marshall Warren goal, wins over ND can be stressful. Expect these to be tight and low-scoring again, with a lot resting on who Michigan's goalie this weekend is. They need much sharper goaltending than they got in Minnesota to be able to win the kind of game you'll probably be in against Notre Dame. Get leads, play good defense, gut it out.