I was out of town this past weekend, having planned the trip a few weeks back on the assumption that Michigan Hockey would would finish first in the B1G and thus have a bye. It was a risky assumption, but I bet on the boys going into South Bend at the end of February and getting the job done. As we discussed last week, that did not happen. Still, despite having to play this past weekend, the Wolverines essentially got a bye: they got to play Michigan State. I don't love kicking teams when they're down, but it's absolutely deserved after the Spartans failed to beat Michigan again, falling to 0-6 on the season against their rival and possibly ending the Danton Cole Era in East Lansing. 

Because there's not much to say that hasn't already been said about Michigan beating MSU into the dirt, I'm only going to list a few bullets about the actual on-ice games (many of the notes are more about season stats than about these games). After that we're going to delve more deeply into NCAA Tournament seeding, and then we'll preview Notre Dame (again). 

 

HockeyBullets 

- Michael Pastujov is having an under-appreciated (super)senior season. This is a point I made on the HockeyCast (which will be released tomorrow), but buried below all the young stars on the Michigan roster is one of the oldest guys on the team, Mike Pastujov, who is quietly having a very nice season. He's got a 10-14-24 line in 37 games, very solid middle six forward production and it's especially nice to see from a winger who struggled in his career prior to 2021-22 to be a consistent producer. Pastujov would be in and out of the lineup, shuffled on different lines, and could never be considered a productive piece. That has changed this year, where he is one of three players to play in every game for Michigan, and has been a reliable goal producer, playing comfortably with more talented players in Michigan's top nine. 

Another under-appreciated element of his game is the defensive component Pastujov brings. He's not a checking grinder like a Van Wyhe or Moyle, but Pastujov's defensive positioning is very strong, he can help kill penalties, and plays a 200-foot game. I like him playing with Thomas Bordeleau because those guys are both good two-way forwards who provide a difficult front for the opposition to penetrate. It's been a nice year for Pastujov, who deserves recognition, and hopefully he gets to return to the Frozen Four, being the last member of the 2018 Frozen Four lineup to still be in the program (Luke Morgan was on the team but was not an active player, sitting out his transfer-mandated year). 

Samoskevich has come on strong [James Coller]

- Mackie Samoskevich could be a superstar as a sophomore. We haven't talked enough about Samoskevich this year, as he's also gotten buried below Beniers, Johnson, Brisson and Bordeleau. It took him a little bit of time to get acclimated to college hockey as a freshman, but since the start of 2022, Samoskevich has been terrific: 5-10-15 in 16 games. He's found a role that suits him next to Dylan Duke and Johnny Beecher, two players who are willing to be a bit more physical than him, with Duke offering the ability to play around the net and Beecher offering the skating ability to mesh with Samoskevich's legs. That line has been excellent since the Olympians left for China, and they have kept it rolling into March. And make no mistake, Samoskevich drives that line. He can really fly, is a good passer, and man is his shot sweet: 

Mackie Samoskevich an absolute rocket 🚀 pic.twitter.com/ij55PUk8xI

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 5, 2022

Samoskevich is now 8th on the team in points with 26 and if you look at the guys ahead of him, most won't be here next year, while it's widely assumed that Samoskevich will get a 2nd year in Ann Arbor. If he does, watch for him to be a 1st team All-B1G type player while leading a top line next to incoming freshmen forwards like Frank Nazar III, Adam Fantilli, and Rutger McGroarty. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Pairwise!]

- Luke Hughes is re-writing the modern Michigan record book. There are some defensemen point totals (and Steve Richmond's 1980-81 goal total) that seem hard to catch, but those were from a very different era of college hockey. In terms of the modern era, where college hockey has real NHL talent and the game has evolved some, Luke Hughes' offensive season as a defenseman is torching the program record book. Luke now holds the freshman goals and points record for a defenseman at Michigan, while holding the Michigan goals record for a defenseman in the 21st century. He's also chasing just one name for the points record for a defenseman in the 21st century, which is Jack Johnson's 39 in 2006-07. Luke sits at 36 and could have as many as six games still to play. He's got a shot. 

His gaudy point totals have really been driven by the goals alone. His 19 assists are good but nowhere close to even modern records. It's the fact he's scored 17 goals as a defenseman that has him re-writing the record book. The crazy part is how these goals have come. Most defensemen who score a ton of goals do it because they rack them up on the power play. Mike Green is the last NHL defenseman to score 30+ in a season when he did it in 2009-10, and 58% of his goals that season came on the PP. Zdeno Chara used to score in the high teens, banking a lot of his on the PP. Instead, Hughes is doing it like Cale Makar is in the NHL, relying heavily on 5v5 goals, which is almost more impressive. Just 3 of Luke's 17 goals have come on the PP this year. If he happens to stick around for his sophomore year, Hobey Watch here we come. 

Hardware coming for the big Swede? [James Coller]

- Erik Portillo has a real case for B1G Goalie of the Year. This was also discussed on the HockeyCast, but Portillo's SV% is up to .929 after allowing just 1 goal in ~114 minutes this weekend. His GAA sits at 2.06 and while Michigan's defense has improved since Jan. 1, it's not like they are a fortress either. He's been very good, and when you survey the field, it's hard to argue against Portillo winning Goalie of the Year in the conference. Minnesota's Justen Close came out of nowhere when JLF got poached by the NHL but he also only played a couple months. Matt Galajda of Notre Dame has been stellar, but he's shared the crease nearly 50-50 with Ryan Bischel, who has posted very similar numbers. Hard to make a case for either. Drew DeRidder of MSU was quite good, as was Jared Moe of Wisconsin, but both play on bad teams and neither played as much as Portillo, who has appeared in every game. PSU's goalies have been bad. 

Thus the award is between Portillo and Jakub Dobeš, the sole reason Ohio State is clutching to a bubble slot (to be discussed in more detail later). I'm rather agnostic about this one. Both have been really good. If I had to pick, I'd probably take Portillo just because he has logged a little more time than Dobeš and I think the team defense in front of him is pretty equivalent (so take the one with the lower GAA). Luke Hughes also would seem to me to be favored to win B1G Freshman of the Year, while I don't think any other individual awards will go to Wolverines.

 

Two likely one seeds in this picture [Madeline Hinkley]

Pairwise Season!

We are now t-minus two weeks to Selection Sunday and with conference tournaments underway, the NCAA Tournament seeding picture is coming more clearly into view. To aid us in this pursuit, I've enlisted the help of College Hockey News' handy Pairwise Probability Matrix, which you can see for yourself at that link. I've also screenshotted it below: 

Lot going on here, I know. What you're looking at is the current Pairwise rankings (on the left), and then their projected probability of making the tourney (the "In" column), followed by the probability that they make it in as an at-large team ("AL") and the probability they make it in as an automatic qualifier ("AQ") by winning their conference tourney. After that we have columns representing the final Pairwise slots (1-24) and then below that are the probabilities that each team finishes in that slot. So, for Michigan's case, they have a 100% of making it in, a 58% chance of making it in as an at-large and a 42% chance of making it in as an automatic qualifier, and then have a 48% chance of finishing 1st in Pairwise, a 50% chance of finishing 2nd, and a 1% chance of finishing 3rd. 

In other words, Michigan is a lock to make the tourney (that's been true wire-to-wire), but more interestingly, they are also a lock to be a one seed, and essentially a lock to finish either 1st or 2nd overall, regardless of what happens this weekend or next. And it's also a coin flip as to whether Michigan finishes with the 1st overall seed or the 2nd overall seed. The implications of who gets which spot could be significant geographically. Due to an arcane NCAA Tournament rule, a team that is "hosting" a regional must be placed in that regional, which means that Denver will get to be in Loveland, CO, regardless of which seed they finish with. If Denver gets a one seed (which seems probable), they will get to be in Loveland, meaning that Allentown, PA, will be geographically closest for both Minnesota State and Michigan. Presumably, the lower of those two will then be shipped out to Albany, NY.  

Michigan's competition for first overall [David Faulkner/SPX Sports]

The path to Michigan getting 1st overall starts with the Wolverines winning their next two games and thus the B1G Tournament. That is a good starting point for this scenario, and beating ND/Minnesota in succession could get the Wolverines over the top on its own. If not, then you're looking to Minnesota State for some help. It's not likely, because the Mavs haven't lost many games this entire season, but they are in a similar bracket to Michigan, a single elimination semifinals and finals. Anything could happen. They face Northern Michigan this weekend, who did beat them once in the regular season, and then could play Michigan Tech in the finals. The Mavs swept the Huskies this season, but three were one-goal games and two went to OT. Anything could happen. Some combination of Michigan winning the BTT and Minnesota State tripping somewhere gives 1st overall back to the Wolverines. 

The remaining one-seeds will go to two of Denver, Minnesota, Western Michigan, North Dakota, and possibly St. Cloud State, with the first two teams mentioned being about 75% to snag those slots. I can't say this with certainty, but given those probabilities, it feels like so long as the Gophers win this weekend against Penn State, they've got a one seed locked up for the second straight year. Likewise, Denver needs to not fall flat on their face against Colorado College this weekend in the NCHC Tournament quarterfinals. If those two events happen, they're in a good spot to lock up those one seeds. 

Brutus finds himself on the bubble [James Coller]

If Michigan is going to be 1st or 2nd overall, then we need to watch the 7-10 slots to see who the two and three seeds in their region will be. The teams most likely to finish in that range based on the matrix are Notre Dame (*sigh*), Quinnipiac, and St. Cloud State. Those three are all ≥70% to end up in the 7-10 range, while other teams with a ≥30% chance of finishing there are Duluth, Michigan Tech, and North Dakota. Of those six, I definitely don't want to see Notre Dame or North Dakota, would be fine seeing QPac, St. Cloud, or Tech, and am on the fence about Duluth. On the one hand, Michigan handled Duluth easily in October, so we know that's a favorable matchup. We also know this isn't a very good Duluth team relative to program expectations, with only a +5 goal differential and a .500 record in their conference. On the other hand, it's f****** Duluth. Those guys win tourney games at a rate inexplicable by anything other than dark magic and the luck of a man who has survived nine shark attacks. 

For the four seed in Michigan's region, we're watching slots 15-16. As mentioned in previous columns, the 16 slot will not be an at-large, but is reserved for the automatic qualifier out of the Atlantic Hockey Conference, who are historically not great (why you want to get 1st overall). The 15th slot is right on that fine line between the bubble and a second automatic qualifier. If it's an at-large bubble team, it's likely going to be someone from the HockeyEast, either UMass-Lowell or Northeastern, or Ohio State, but I doubt the committee would draw a Michigan/OSU first round matchup in the case that OSU stays 15th in PWR and Michigan is second overall. [NOTE: PWR picks the 16 teams and comes close to picking the matchups, but the committee has the ability to switch a few things around]. 

If it's an automatic-qualifier, I'd watch out for Clarkson or Harvard in the ECAC. Quinnipiac has struggled down the stretch and those teams both played well against QPac in the regular season, and both would only have to beat the Bobcats once to eliminate QPac and thus open the door for a second bid-stealer. I'd be fine playing either of those two teams if they slipped in, because I'm the chief ECAC disrespecter, especially in a year like this. It would also be funny to see OSU be bumped out after once seeming to be a tournament lock. Another place a bid stealer could come from is if Northern or Bemidji manage to win the CCHA Tournament, as well as Omaha going on a cinderella run in the NCHC Tournament. No matter who Michigan draws as their four seed, whether it's a HockeyEast team or OSU or a Clarkson-type, or even AIC out of Atlantic Hockey, the Wolverines will be favored, and probably by a heavy margin. 

 

Here we go again [Zoey Holmstrom]

Notre Dame Preview, again 

These guys again. The wounds of the sweep in South Bend are still fresh when the Wolverines and Irish will meet yet again on Saturday night, this time back in Ann Arbor. It feels a bit redundant to be previewing Notre Dame when I did that only two weeks ago, but that's the nature of how these postseason tournaments play out. The Irish played three surprisingly competitive games with Wisconsin, beating the Badgers 2-1 in the three game series by dropping the Friday game and not winning in terribly convincing fashion either Saturday or Sunday. That's Notre Dame and low-event hockey, though. It can get you in close games with great teams... but also in close games with bad ones. 

The biggest story when playing Notre Dame is always about whose game you're playing. Are you playing the game you want to play? Or the one ND wants you to play? If you score first, or hold a lead around the halfway mark of the game, the game is going to be open and free flowing and the sort of game Michigan wants to play. If ND has the lead around the halfway mark, it's going to be a slog where yes, you may get more shots, but they won't be high quality ones and rallying will not be easy. That's the game ND wants to play.

Michigan has held two-goal leads against Notre Dame twice this season back in November and scored first in a third game, yet won zero of those games. Problem was that Notre Dame was able to thrive despite playing the style Michigan wanted to play because Michigan was far too mistake-prone in that open and free flowing type of game, especially in November. What you want to see the Wolverines do this weekend is A) score first and B) play an airtight, clean defensive game like the one they played against Ohio State in the Saturday game a few weeks back. 

This meeting is back in Ann Arbor [James Coller]

This is the second time in the Mel Pearson era that Michigan is facing a team in the BTT semifinals who they lost to four times previously. That was the case back in 2017-18, when Michigan was 0-4 against OSU in the regular season and then they met in the semis. Difference is that those four games were not competitive in the regular season, whereas Michigan's 0-4 record against Notre Dame this year comes from two games ending in OT and a third that should have gone to OT if a catastrophic refereeing debacle doesn't take place in the waning moments. These were all very close games where the Wolverines just made a few too many errors each time and came up short. Michigan doesn't match up well with ND, but they are the better team. They're at home, and should be motivated. The brain says the losing streak should end Saturday, but the brain doesn't determine college hockey outcomes. 

Erik Portillo is a big piece of the puzzle this weekend. I've heaped praise on him in this piece and he does deserve it: a 13-2-2 record with a 1.54 GAA and a .947 SV% since Christmas says a lot. But he also hasn't been as sharp against Notre Dame. He gave away a horrendous goal during an ill-fated attempt to play the puck the last time we saw Notre Dame that was a crucial turning point in the game, and one of his worst efforts of the season came against the Irish in November. You assume that Matt Galajda will be superb in net for the Irish, so Michigan needs to show they have the better goalie in this head-to-head matchup. 

Michigan has to be more willing to put pucks on net and grind out goals than they were in the last matchup. Notre Dame will concede you the perimeter all day long, but you won't get much from it. I want to see Michigan try and bully their way into the slot and play more physical in the corners and around the net. The Beecher line with Duke and Samoskevich will be one to watch. The matchup of Michigan's PP, which scored three in five minutes on MSU on Saturday, also has a big role to play against Notre Dame's 90.3% penalty kill. The Irish shut down Michigan's man-advantage through much of the series two weeks ago. Needs to change on Saturday night.