We're now three regulation weekends into the 2023-24 Michigan Hockey season and the team sits with a 3-2-1 record. This past weekend against Ohio State was the team's best, with a win and a tie against a respectable opponent. It was a little short of full satisfaction, but a step in the right direction. We've now got enough of a sample to begin forming a few opinions on this hockey team and with a football bye week to share those opinions, I thought I'd take the opportunity: 

 

The top line levels up

Over this past weekend, Michigan ran with a top line of Gavin Brindley centering Dylan Duke and Rutger McGroarty. If you'd told me this line before the season, I'd have been a bit surprised by Brindley playing center but to this point, I think he looks the part. That's the first element of a line that has seen all three players take sizable steps forward in their games this season, which is a big piece of optimism for the Wolverines. As a group, they've scored 10 of the team's 26 goals and are three of the top four players in points on the squad. Strong on the PP and at 5v5, this line may not be as good as Michigan's dominant, Adam Fantilli-led top line from last season, but they have been pretty good.    

The success of this line to me is due in part to improvements in each player's game. Starting with Brindley, his ability to play center on a line that is achieving positive results is huge, and again, not something I thought was likely. As an undersized, forechecking forward, it made sense to me to have Brindley playing wing where he can go all out hunting the puck in the offensive zone. Yet, even though he's been playing center, Brindley is still able to play his game. This set-up was beautiful... and classic Brindley: 

A rip from Rut and he extends his point-scoring streak to 13 games pic.twitter.com/NkAiljROJV

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) October 20, 2023

Wins a hustle battle to retrieve a loose puck and then puts it into a high-danger area to create a goal. As long as Brindley is able to keep making plays like that while playing the center position, all will be right with this line. We should also address the other part of that clip, the tremendous shot from Rutger McGroarty. He's only got three goals this season, but his shot looks significantly more dangerous to me and more importantly, his shootiness has also ticked up.

Rutger is being featured more on the power play as a shot threat with Adam Fantilli out of the picture and he's putting a lot more pucks on net. Through six games, Rutger has recorded 26 shots, or 4.33 per game. Last season he was sitting at 2.97 per game. An extra shot-and-a-half per game doesn't sound like a ton but if Michigan plays 35-40 games, that's an extra 55-60 shots. And since Rutger's a good shooter, that could net the team an extra ~8-10 goals. Putting more pucks on net and having your best shooters take more shots is all good process. 

Finally, there's Dylan Duke, who seems to have a bit more skill in his game. This goal is scored in a greasy manner, but everything before the finish is skilled: 

Duker drives the net and scores, it’s 1-0 Michigan pic.twitter.com/9UwKuztZGA

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) October 20, 2023

Duke is able to drive and drag around a defender, something that was certainly not associated with his game two years ago when he was a freshman. Duke's skating and puck skill have considerably improved over his time at Michigan, but he's also thinking the game better too. It was hard not to be startled by this play: 

Duker drives the net and scores, it’s 1-0 Michigan pic.twitter.com/9UwKuztZGA

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) October 20, 2023

That's a legitimate NHL play. You could imagine that pass being made by Nikita Kucherov, getting the puck in a high-danger area, staring down the goalie to freeze him while sucking the defenders by showing the shot, then flipping the pass across to a wide open man for an easy goal. Wowza! That these plays are being made by Dylan Duke, a player who was mostly just a garbage goal guy his first season at Michigan, is impressive. Last season Duke's production was a bit too tied to Adam Fantilli for my liking (it dropped off precipitously after Duke was demoted from the top line), but this season he's at 3-5-8 through six games with no Fantilli in the picture. Improvements in the skill side of his offensive game, as well as the improvements of his teammates, are responsible here. For now, Michigan's new-look top line is doing the part. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: defense, goalies, opponents]

 

[Bill Rapai]

CRISIS on defense? 

All through the writing of the hockey season preview, I constantly thought to myself "why are they carrying 14 forwards to 10 defensemen?". What has unfolded in the last month is apparently why. First there was the expulsion of Johnny Druskinis, which happened after the preview was written, so it hasn't been covered by me previously. Not much to say really other than homophobic vandalism is bad! Bummer to lose a decently promising player in terms of on-ice abilities (based on what we'd heard) but oh well, actions have consequences. 

After the Druskinis incident, we learned of the One Significant Injury That's Already Happened But We Don't Know About that happens every season. Ethan Edwards is the player befallen by injury this season, out until midseason. The problem with these two developments is that among the ten D that Michigan was carrying, two of the ten were strictly "break only in case of emergency" guys and neither of the two defensemen unavailable were in that category. So, you're left with six defensemen you feel comfortable using and two you absolutely do not feel comfortable using. 

We saw this dilemma play out during the UMass series when Tyler Duke was unable to go, forcing Josh Orrico into the lineup. Orrico "played" but he didn't really play, taking only the occasional shift until the game was in garbage time during the Friday night contest. For all intents and purposes, Michigan skated with five defensemen in that series. And given that they used Orrico over Brendan Miles, who has a year in the program on him, that tells you all you need to know about Miles. Until Edwards is back, Michigan is majorly shorthanded here.

[Bill Rapai]

The problem this creates, beyond the legitimate crisis if one of the six main guys gets hurt, is forcing both Luca Fantilli and Steve Holtz onto the third pair. I'm a firm believer that you're never broken (or made) by your third pair/fourth line, and they can be sheltered appropriately, but it certainly feels like far too many goals are going in when one (or both) of these players are on the ice right now. I don't have advanced numbers on that, but all of Ohio State's goals last weekend were scored with Holtz on the ice. Not what you want!

I do wonder if perhaps the way to get through this period is to elevate one of Holtz/Fantilli in the lineup and break them up from having to play together. Typically you'd want to have pairs you can trust in big situations and not play your weaker players in bigger situations, but if the combo of Fantilli and Holtz is getting caved in relentlessly, you may not have a choice. It's something to follow I suppose, but you have to imagine this defenseman picture is playing out quite differently than Brandon Naurato imagined back in the summer. Shouldering adversity is how you prove your worth as a coach. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Goalie Battle: Advantage Barczewski 

I'm not sure if we ever had a true goalie battle, or if we still have one, but all signs are now pointing towards Jake Barczewski. Noah West got to start the season opener but let in four goals on 26 shots. He wasn't the sole reason Michigan lost, but it wasn't a clean performance. Barczewski started the second game and had a largely crisp showing and delivered a win. The team in front of him was better, but he was better than West on the weekend. Since then, Barczewski has started every game and though it hasn't been perfect, he looks like a credible B1G starting goalie. 

Through five games, Barczewski is sporting a 2.59 GAA and a .913 SV%. Again, not "put him on the Richter shortlist!" good, but a decent level of play. Michigan is 3-1-1 in his starts and that's what counts. Barczewski has made some saves when Michigan has needed him to, too. The team in front of him hasn't been a mess, but it isn't a fortress and Barczewski has pulled through in big moments late in games on a couple occasions, which is what you ask your goalie to do. 

I do think that Barczewski is weaker in motion than Portillo was, and definitely on the high-danger looks, but he's proved better in the latter respect than I was expecting. So from that standpoint, I'm pretty much on board. This'll be covered in a bit, but Michigan's schedule seems to have been solid so far in terms of opponent quality. They haven't faced a juggernaut, but Providence/UMass/OSU all seem like teams that have a shot to be in the NCAAs and Barczewski having a .913 in that sample is fine, especially with Michigan still settling into the season. Most teams are a bit choppier out of the gate, wading into the season so to speak. I do expect his numbers will tick up as the team's consistency in front of him ticks up too. 

Michigan doesn't need Barczewski to be a superstar. There's more than enough talent on this team to be good with only average goaltending. To date, Barczewski looks like he can be an average goaltender for a team in a high-level conference like Michigan. Keeping it up and proving to be dependable night in and night out is key, but I like what I've seen from Barczewski so far. I do expect to see Noah West at least once more (possibly this weekend against Lindenwood?), but to the extent that there ever was a goalie battle, it seems like we have a winner. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

A couple more thoughts 

- My big pleasant surprise so far has been Garrett Schifsky. I thought he'd come in and be a useful player for Michigan, but he looks more than useful right now. He's played some with Jackson Hallum, Josh Eernisse, and Frank Nazar III and has made those players look better in my eyes. Three goals and two assists for five points in six games is a hot start to a collegiate career for Schifsky. The shooting percentage looks high, but I like what I've seen from him. Schifsky has speed and has been useful on the penalty kill especially. 

- Speaking of a guy Schifsky's played with, Frank Nazar III has been alright, but still a bit disappointing in the context of expectations. After we heard how good he looked in the summer at the WJC Summer Showcase, Nazar has looked like a good B1G centerman, but nothing particularly special. Skill and speed is there, but not really the dominance. Nazar is sporting a 3-1-4 line so far, good but not great. You want to see great out of a former lottery pick, but I'm willing to give this more time as Nazar is still quite green in his college career. 

- The meltdown in Amherst against UMass in the Saturday game was real rough, there's no way around it. It seemed mental more than anything else, but when you take into account the OSU game this past Saturday, that's twice in the last three games that Michigan held a third period lead and didn't get a regulation win (or any win, for that matter). Still too early to see if this will become a trend, but I will be watching Michigan's ability to close out games. Having a penalty kill that's been very shaky early on will not help their ability to do finish games, though I have liked the PK more in recent weeks. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

First impressions - Schedule & B1G 

So far the conference looks deep, as expected. But is it loaded with elite teams? That I'm not as sure about. There certainly don't seem to be any laughingstocks, but I've yet to see evidence of any team being top notch. Minnesota is probably the closest, but they've played four total games, only two of which against a tourney contender (they split with NoDak 1-1). An OT game with St. Thomas also doesn't look particularly great for the Gophers. Their series against Wisconsin this weekend will tell us a lot, which leads me to the Badgers. Wisco is 5-1 under new coach Mike Hastings, a road sweep of Michigan Tech announcing their presence, though an OT game with Bemidji and a loss to NoDak is more so-so. Wisconsin does look, at the very least, like a solid team. 

Michigan State is another team we're going to learn a bit about this weekend when they take on Boston College. The Eagles are loaded with NHL caliber offensive talent between Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Ryan Leonard, and Gabriel Perreault, so it'll be a stiff test for a Spartan team that seems to be a bit shaky in the defensive area. They've allowed 3+ goals in each of their past four games (all against subpar competition, Air Force and Canisius) and are allowing nearly 33 shots against per game, a number way too high for an elite team. MSU is young on the back end... talented, but young. That could be a factor. The offense and goaltending (when Trey Augustine plays) has been good so far, but I'm very curious to see how the goal prevention holds up when they play their first real opponent this weekend. 

Michigan got a look at Ohio State over the weekend. They seemed fine to me. Michigan was the better team in that series and OSU wasn't able to run their suffocating forecheck to the same degree as they were last year (goaltending also seemed worse), which was all in line with my expectations. The Bucks are far from a bad team, though, and they'll be around the cutline for the NCAAs I think, very competitive in the conference.

[Bill Rapai]

Penn State is the team we know the least about, playing their cupcake schedule like usual and dominating play, but the goaltending has been BAD: .873 team SV% so far! To state the obvious, if that keeps up in B1G play, they are in a world of trouble. Finally there's Notre Dame, who basically look like the same team from last season. They've played a middling schedule so far and are getting outshot in that sample, still getting strong goaltending from Ryan Bischel and still unable to score at all. 10 goals in five games as a team and 2-3-0 on the season in terms of results. They will get to the tournament if Bischel drags them there. 

So, this looks like the B1G I was expecting so far. No one looks elite, no one looks terrible, let's wait another month to get a better sense of the hierarchy. Once conference games start really getting played, we'll have a lot more information. As for Michigan, I think we have a good sense. This is a talented team and a good one. UMass and Providence's results outside of Michigan (combined 6-0) support the idea that they are solid teams and Michigan was either the better team or about as good as the opposition in those series. Three weeks isn't enough time to draw conclusions, but so far the season is within the ballpark of expectations, but we'll certainly learn a lot more in the next month before Thanksgiving.