Game Over, Man?
3/6/2015 – Michigan 4, Penn State 6 – 19-12, 11-6 Big Ten
3/7/2015 – Michigan 3, Penn State 4 – 19-13, 11-7 Big Ten
twilight (not that twilight) [Patrick Barron]
A few years back I wrote something about a pivotal series against Miami that felt both correct and histrionic simultaneously. Michigan was swept 4-2 and 3-0, dumb penalties piled up like Lions mistakes with the Suh contract, and it felt like there was something gone from the program:
So this is definitely an overreaction: that kind of felt like the beginning of the end of the Red Berenson era. I know what the instant reaction to that thought is because I had it too, but after I recoiled at the thing it sat there leering and never scoring any goals it appeared to mean. It's still there. It's horned and pitchforked. It's eating all my cheese dip. I hate it. It knows this, does not care, and refuses to leave.
Michigan proceeded to advance to the national championship game, so I may have pulled the trigger slightly early. But that feeling turned out to be correct, give or take a year. The next year one-seed Michigan was unceremoniously bounced from the tourney by Cornell in the first round; they have not been back since.
Their absence has grown more dispiriting and infuriating as it's lengthened. When Michigan started their slippery slope, they finished seventh in the CCHA only to storm through the tourney, beating #1 Miami on the way, before falling to those same Redhawks when every Michigan fan's "rule most likely to lead to homicide"—a goal waved off because the referee can't see the puck—came to fruition in overtime.
A couple years later they turned around a dismal season about halfway through, reaching the CCHA finals. There they found a very good Notre Dame team that beat them comprehensively in terms of attack time and chances, with the usual vagaries of hockey holding Michigan in it.
Last year all they had to do was beat Penn State, nascent, fledgling Penn State, in the Big Ten tournament to all but guarantee themselves an at-large berth. They lost in two overtimes to a team that was 8-25-2 on the year, allowing 65 shots—44 in regulation. This year they approached Happy Valley in first place in the league, an at-large bid within their grasp, and they blew it. They were down 3-0 and 4-2 in games they'd lose, and this is now their situation:
Gross weekend. Per http://t.co/9RVMXcI80e, chances of making tourney now 25%, 1% without winning B1G Tournament. Just 45% to get a bye.
— Yost Built (@YostBuilt) March 8, 2015 On the one hand you can't be surprised. Michigan has been playing with fire with sloppy goaltending and guys wandering through the slot unchecked all year. It's tough to get points when you give up five goals per game.
On the other… how the hell did we get here? Michigan had a 22-year (22 year!) tourney streak during which it was mostly impervious to these sorts of wobbles. We should be grateful for that. Minnesota, BC, North Dakota—every one of these programs had a year or three in which they were inexplicably bad. Michigan avoided that for an astoundingly long period of time.
No longer, and there's a pretty easy proximate cause to point to:
| YEAR | M RECORD | M TOURNEY | MEL | TECH RECORD | TECH TOURNEY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 33-6-4 | frozen four | M | 14-20-5 | no |
| 2009 | 29-12 | first round | M | 6-25-7 | no |
| 2010 | 26-18-1 | second round | M | 5-30-1 | no |
| 2011 | 29-11-4 | finalists | M | 4-30-4 | no |
| 2012 | 24-13-4 | first round | Tech | 16-19-4 | no |
| 2013 | 18-19-4 | no | Tech | 13-20-4 | no |
| 2014 | 18-13-4 | no | Tech | 14-19-7 | no |
| 2015 | 19-13 | must win BTT | Tech | 26-8-2 | #5 PWR |
Mel Pearson left for Michigan Tech after the 2010-11 season and immediately made them competitive; this year they're damn good. The above chart probably sells it short since it only goes back four years before the change. That middling year from the Huskies is a major outlier amongst even more seasons with 4, 5, 6 wins. Meanwhile, Michigan was rampant.
Even when Michigan beat Tech in the GLI, they were under siege for most of it, getting outshot 41-21. The series in Houghton was simply not competitive. Michigan was at ful strength; goals were 10-3 Tech. The inverse of that used to be the expectation for a Michigan versus Tech series.
Berenson's contract has one more year on it, and when it was signed he said it was almost certainly his last. I can't see any way that's not the case, and if Hackett has the stones to make a change now (I cannot believe I am saying this…) it might be time. In another situation with an unclear candidate pool, the argument for waiting would be stronger. With Pearson available and acting out the best-case scenario for Tech hockey, if you can get it done now that's a move you have to make.
Maybe Michigan wins the Big Ten tourney; maybe they outscore their mistakes for a bit in the tournament. The direction the arrow is pointing is clear enough even in that hypothetical scenario.
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...is this a bad idea?
he seems to have been able to identify young talent, has presided over a transitional period in detroit without them bottoming out, seems like a standup guy...
pearson would be my first choice today, but i don't think i'd complain about babcock.
My worry would be that he'd be a shorter term option (would we get 3 years?) than Pearson, and Mel's window for a return may be closed. Babcock would be much like Red in the 80's & 90's... able to leverage his contacts with pro coaches and players (including familial ones) to get the high end talent with an understanding the coach knows how to get your kid to the pros. Babcock is techincally savvy, has good instincts on players in game, and knows how to teach a system to younger players.
Mel's my top choice, but Babcock would be 1A if you could get him to commit to 4+ years.
Who is to say Babs wouldn't? He's an academic first and foremost. Second he's won just about every international competition there is and Stanley Cups. Babs may just like to settle down for some stability on the back 9 of his career.
Will offer him several Brink's trucks to come to Toronto. The money will be stupid.
March 10th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^
The Oakland Seals are still in play.
Aliens voice. "Game over...!"
For a pro wrestling like swerve where we get in the tourney as a 4 seed to play Michigan Tech in the first round game. Right before faceoff, Mel Pearson mysteriously isn't behind the bench for the Huskies. He walks out from the locker room, and as he reaches out to pat his captain on the back, he grabs the hockey stick, hits the captain in the back of the legs, and rips off his suit coat to reveal a Michigan shirt underneath, with Red just smiling and nodding behind his bench, then breaking into an EVIL LAUGH. Like it was the plan all along. Cue nWo music. 10 year reign of terror commences with Michigan winning 8 titles.
I mean that's what's going to happen right? Right? Hold me, Tiny Jesus.
We have a 10 year reign of terror and only win 8 titles?!?! #FireMel
the one year we get the title stolen away from us in the worst officiated title game in history, and the second when our entire team gets selected for the World Juniors and we choose not to compete the rest of the season.
But accurate. I think Red even mentioned that he debated walking away recently... Michigan has some real sports-movie potential. Red announces retirement after the season, team goes on to win both tournaments and carries Red off?
"imagine if the winningest coach in your programs history comes to the realisation of his own mortality, only for his biggest group of underachievers to transform into his biggest group of overachievers. Watch the 30 for 30, When Wolverines Decide to Die, the Story of the 2015 NCAA Hockey National Champions"
I don't believe that Red would ever let himself be carried?
Because Red has meant so much to this program, in the lifetimes of most fans who will be reading this, he is Michigan hockey, but the quiet realization at the end may be nigh is not fun and not something you want to shout out loud. But at some point, it becomes too hard to ignore the reality before you. Alas.
if Red wants to come back next year he's more than earned that. I don't think anyone anticipates him attempting to hang on beyond that. We'll be at worst an okay team and the next coach will have every advantage in our rebuild to elite status. It's unfortunate He's not going out at the level we maintained through the 90s, but no one looking at his body or work could ever complain.
I feel like Red is back next year just because of the team that is likely back. You lose Hyman and a couple others and you're getting a good group coming in led by Kyle Connor who could be Dylan Larkin 2.0. And no one is going to be leaving, Compher and Larkin are the only one's that have a shot and it's a long shot for next year. This team is going to be hyper talented next year but can they transfer it into wins.
Honestly, makes me wonder what a Mel coached team could do with that talent. It's incredible what he's doing in Houghton.
Sorry, you don't tell Red Berenson when to retire, he tells us. We owe that much to the guy. Suck it up and let him coach the last year in his contract if he wants to.
Wait, was that what was being said here? I felt like it was an acknowledgement of the beginning of the end and that it comes tinged with some sadness.
...not sure how you can read the phrase "if hackett has the stones to make the change now" any other way.
An acknowledgement that it would be a big, bold, brassy move, in line with the notion that Red gets to set his exit?
if Hackett has the stones to make a change now (I cannot believe I am saying this…) it might be time. In another situation with an unclear candidate pool, the argument for waiting would be stronger. With Pearson available and acting out the best-case scenario for Tech hockey, if you can get it done now that's a move you have to make.
I'm very skeptical that Pearson is available in any situation where Red is unhappy about being pushed out before the last year on his contract. I'd expect Hackett to have a talk with Red after the season, but the decision for next year should be in Red's hands.
This makes a lot of sense.
Me thinks you nailed it.
I wouldn't go that far, but if (1) Red wants to finish this contract so that he can give and get a proper goodbye and (2) Michigan doesn't believe that waiting a year badly hurts their prospects for the next coach, then I think giving him one more season is fine. There's no way I'm extending that contract - so none of this "he tells us" stuff - but there's something to treating a legend with respect and crossing our fingers that 2015-16 might write a happier conclusion to Red's career than 2014-15 seems to be writing. Next year could be even uglier, obviously, but at least we'd go into it knowing that it's the end, saying goodbye, and hoping for one last glorious run. If that run somehow happened, it'd be a lot of fun and would help make our memories of Red's time more wholly positive.
How did you feel about the really late JoePa Era (before that whole... series of events, that is)?
That's a poor comparison. Our decision point is right now, and we're realistically talking about one more season, not one more decade. No Michigan fan would want another 10 years of this, but whether to accept a farewell season is a totally different question.
We've already gone through that decade long decline. No program in college hockey has underperformed like Michigan the last 10 years.
Half of their tournament appearances over that time period have been 1st round exits. Only twice they even made it out of the 2nd round, but no one paid attention because of that trip to the NC game.
For all the talent Michigan hockey accumulates, isn't it underwhelming that Red only has 2 championships?
Honest question.
Single Elimination Hockey.
that's all you need to understand.
They underachieve, you just choose to accept it.
Michigan should have a better tournament record, but one and done hockey is brutal (as anyone who's ever watched the tournament knows). If the tournament was best-of-7, BC would probably have won 2-3 more titles in the last decade
lol, do I have another option to choose?
Single elimination hockey can be so random that I bet if you could run the frozen four ten times, each team would win once or twice so I take just getting there as a big indication of being national championship quality.
You look at Michigan's frozen fours and it mirrors our gut feeling on how the program has gone:
1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003,....2008,...2011...
I mean, they made 9 of 11 Frozen Fours from '92-'03. That is in-sane. The program was on fire through the 90's and really tapered off in the last decade.
Red's recruiting prowess. You don't get to assume we always get the same (excellent) caliber players then coach them to various levels.
Was that when JoePa was or was not covering up child rape?!
Brian has the last 8 years of Red in his post. The last 8 years of JoePa were:
2004: 4-7
2005: 11-1, Big Ten Champs, final ranking #3
2006: 9-4
2007: 9-4
2008: 11-2, Big Ten Champs, final ranking #8
2009: 11-2, final ranking #8 or 9 depending on poll
2010: 7-6
2011: 8-1 (5-0 in the Big Ten)
The interesting thing was that from 2000-04, PSU had only one winning season. Then in 2005 - when JoePa was 79 - they suddenly turned it around. I presume that it was around that time that JoePa completed the transition to being a figurehead.
Not sure what happened after the 2004 season but at the tail end of his career, they weren't bad.
I trust Hackett to handle this perfectly.
It sucks to admit it, but yeah it's time for a change in Hockey. It isn't Red's fault; the guy is 75, and at some point you just don't have the energy needed to convert 17-year-old kids from comparative idiots on skates into college hocket players. But right now, this program has all the talent in the world and should be competing for titles, not struggling to beat PSU on the road or splitting with tire-fire State.
If it's Pearson, then great. If not, change might still be worth it. It would be great for this team to get hot and make a run in the BTT, but a change probably should have happened a couple years ago.
Hackett's take and execution here is much more interesting than with Hoke. It very well could be time if executed well.
Harbaugh wasn't even looking at us if Hoke's departure wasn't handled with class? I think that Brandon is the AD you're looking for.
I think Red's time is all but done, but I also don't think we should be so callous to the man who is the face of modern Michigan hockey. I hope that Red realizes it's time to retire and comes to the conclusion on his own. If that doesn't happen I hope that Hackett has a serious talk with Red about the state of the program, and if Red still wants his last year just let him have it.
It'll be tough to watch another year of half-hearted hockey, but it's tough to swallow the idea of giving a man the boot who's coached the team for so many years. If he had 5 years left, maybe you're more stern. But for one more, you might be inclined to let it go
Red will either decide to retire after this season (hopefully) or next season. The latter is not a bad worst case scenario IMO as the team will have talent and we can attract a top coach because of the program's ceiling and funding.
Interesting question, is Red more likely to retire if we miss the NCAAs or win the conference tourney and get in? If we miss out, he might want to come back for that final year and try to end on a better note. Or maybe he realizes it's over and he's not getting enough out of the players and coaches. If we get in, he thinks has a great team coming back and makes one last run at a Frozen Four. Or he realizes that this is as good as it gets for ending and rides off into the sunset starting a new NCAA tourney streak.
would have solidified any doubt he had in his mind either way. Since 30 Jan, we've had 5 weeks of meaningful games, and we've had disappointment in 4 of them-- the notable exception being a sweep of a historically bad Wisconsin team in which both games were in doubt going into the 3rd period. We flip any of those weekends and we're sitting with a B1G title, and a likely at-large bid going into this weekend instead of the morass we find ourselves in. Add to that the no-shows against Tech, BC, and BU, and almost all games against top competition this year we've been outcoached. That should be enough of a sign. I hope he gets a chariot ride and is allowed to die in battle (metaphorically) in the NCAA's, but frankly he probably won't get to and that's partially his fault.
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