Resources: My charting, UW game notes, UW roster, CFBstats, Last Year

They probably shouldn't, but it looks like Wisconsin is set to come play Michigan this weekend. After a two-week COVID shutdown, who's getting on that plane is as good a guess as anyone's. They'll probably still be Wisconsin.

The film: Illinois, asymptomatically.

Personnel: My bound-to-be-useless diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

Unless they've got some source deep in Badgerland, Michigan has no idea what Wisconsin looks like now, except that they've had three weeks to mentally prepare for this game with whatever manpower was available, and a week to practice after locking down since the day after they played Illinois. They're probably playing some weird guys.

“I feel very confident in our preparation,” Badgers receiver Kendric Pryor said. “(Michigan is) probably basing us off our first game which was two weeks ago and we’re definitely not the same team as two weeks ago.”

Barry Alvarez reported 27 active cases as of a week ago and Chryst said Wednesday the number not available for Michigan remains in the double digits. It's possible a good third of their team is inactive for this game. That includes the blue chip redshirt freshman quarterback #5 Graham Mertz, who seized the starting job when last year's starter Jack Coan went out for the season. Mertz broke several school passing records in his first start, then was the first public case of the COVID outbreak, quickly followed by 3rd stringer Chase Wolf. Having tested positive three Saturdays ago Mertz should technically be cleared to play on Saturday, but the wording of this from their OC's presser makes it sound like Mertz hasn't been practicing.

#Wisconsin offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph says QB Graham Mertz remains "in the protocol" and UW is waiting to see if he can return this week at #Michigan. "A little bit of uncertainty there, but the guys who have practiced are ready to go."

— Adam Rittenberg (@ESPNRittenberg) November 11, 2020

The status of the rest of the team is unknown.

[after THE JUMP: Gaps! Gaps! Gaps! Gaps! Gaps! Gaps!]

I charted them against Illinois anyway so I might as well tell you about the guys who are around. The big thing, other than apparently finding a quarterback, is they haven't found a running back. #37 Garrett Groshek (+5/-2, –2 pass pro) is their old third down back and won't ever be more. Redshirt sophomores #14 Nakia Watson (+2/-3) and #20 Isaac Guerendo (+3/-2) were the only other two they used. Watson has power but his vision isn't great. Guerendo has speed but his vision isn't great. True freshman #8 Jalen Berger didn't play in this one but he's the guy we tabbed to emerge pre-season.

Wisconsin has two fullbacks, #34 Mason Stokke (+1.5/-5), and last year's starter #44 John Chenal (+2/-2), neither of which made much impact. Instead they mostly ran with two tight ends. #84 Jake Ferguson (+21/-9, +4.5 receiving) had a fumble and could have called for holding on literally 50 plays. We'll get to him later because #87 Hayden Rucci (+10/-10), brother of the 5* OT recruit, graded out way worse than I thought he would. Going back over my notes there were a lot of freshman-y misidentifications, but those were offset by many blocks his brother probably couldn't pull off:

#87, the inside TE in the backfield:

Rucci wasn't used in the passing game; Ferguson is their main passing weapon.

The receivers are, uh, decent blockers. The slot bug du jour is 5'7"/174 insect Jack Dunn (+1/-3), who caught a couple of bubble screens and turned down touchdowns to run up his players' backs. On the outside, Illinois's secondary plays pillow soft and is more of a mess than ours so it was hard to gauge the UW receivers when someone's trying to actually cover them. #3 Kendric Pryor (+3/-2, +3 receiving) is a fair blocker. He got his minus for slipping on a jet sweep, which is a good distillation of who he is. #7 Danny Davis (+1/-4, +1 receiving) never broke out after a good freshman outing. He's a guy to keep an eye on however since his breakout years ago was on deep fades, Wisconsin has thrown like four of them since, and we've seen Michigan turn a mild-mannered Hoosier and an MSU true freshman into Biletnikoff candidates for a day. True freshman WR #13 Chimere Dike was grabbing jerseys every snap he was on the field; if he's killing us turn off the TV.

Left tackle #71 Cole Van Lanen (+14.5/-5, –0 pass pro) could have been in the NFL this year instead of prompting announcers to deploy their many prepared facts about Wisconsin OL in the NFL during clock kill hour. Much of that NFL donation came from last year's interior line but they shored up much of it by convincing RG #67 Jon Dietzen (+10/-3, –2 pass pro) to come out of retirement. Opposite him, LG #70 Josh Seltzner (+15/-10, –0 pass pro) is your standard big slab of Wisconsin beef. He can be dodged, but UW got a lot of yards by having him grind down Carlo Kemp last year. Onetime emergency DE #76 Kayden Lyles (+6/-0) has moved into the spot vacated by star pro rookie Tyler Biadasz and was solid; moreover Wisconsin never missed a blitz assignment. The depth chart lists RT #60 Logan Bruss (+14/-4, –0 pass pro) as an "OR" with 6th OL #65/#95 Tyler Beach, though I can't understand why.

The last two weeks I came up with protection numbers for MSU and Indiana that were so bad I wondered if I should include them. Wisconsin's 27/33 (82%) is low-amplitude, but tells us Michigan's probably due for a major comedown in pass rush efficacy. Since Michigan's better-than-it-looks pass rush has been irrelevant for most of those games due to the nightmares at cornerback, maybe it won't matter.

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? It's always 1999 in Madison. Their usual setup in the Illinois game was two tight ends and a bunched receiver with a deep tailback and a split end:

This has been discussed in many previous Wisconsins. They use tight ends to create more gaps. They (the tight ends) act like extra offensive linemen, when they're not literally offensive linemen. The Badgers ran a lot of "Inserts" and Isos in this game, which is where you have a tight end dive between two offensive linemen to pop a defender who was expecting, you know, the usual. Twice they broke Ferguson into Kevin Koger's Kogerland (Still President for Life: Kevin Koger) because the Illini forgot #84 is an eligible receiver.

For flavor they'll have the double tight ends array in a Flexbone, replace a tight end with a fullback, replace a receiver or two with fullbacks, or go three-wide in the Flexbone and jet sweep. The breakdown was indeed quite Wisconsin.

2020 UW vs Illinois						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	Gun	Pistol	I-Form	Ace		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard (53)	9%	9%	17%	64%		1.64		13%	10%	-	77%
Passing (19)	84%	5%	-	11%		2.84		78%	-	-	22%
Total (72)	21	6	9	36		1.96		21	5	-	44

Here's last year's versus a Florida directional school for comparison:

2019 UW vs USF						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	Gun	Pistol	I-Form	Ace		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard (45)	31%	6%	36%	20%		2.30		16%	16%	7%	61%
Passing (19)	89%	11%	-	-		3.04		78%	-	-	22%
Total (64)	31	8	16	9		2.52		21	7	3	31

They'll run a lot, then if the running goes bad they'll pass from a shotgun, mostly running slants and curls. The play-action might have just three or two or one receiver(s) in a route. Like I said, Wisconsin.

 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Like you have to ask.

Cheap-Ass Badgers? Big Ten West fans stoke UW's reputation for bending the bendy rules. Holding: whatever—the only guy who's really egregious with it is TE Jake Ferguson. More annoying was a hands-to-the-face call that a Wisconsin player drew by snapping his own head back, and several more attempts at such followed by appeals to the stripes. Given we saw that last year too, it's probably something the officials should be made aware of.

Hurry it up or grind it out? Grind it out.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Graham Mertz may be their best passer since the safety who became a wide receiver, but he's still a Wisconsin.

They tried to run a zone read anyways because it's the 2020s and everybody has to run a zone read now. No, he didn't keep it. It was kind of hilarious:

Frames Janklin Factor: Unfortunately Turtle gave up being a Turtle after he cost himself a chance to be competitive in the 2018 game. Last year he was going for it on 4th and short every time. They did run a screen on 3rd and 17 that went as well as it could go without a major defensive bust and still came out four yards short. They also ran three draws on 3rd and longs in this game, one of which converted. So Chryst has modernized his 4th down decision-making, but is still very much a Give Up and Punt guy who's figured out getting to 4th and short can be a 3rd and long goal.

Dangerman:

Like why am I bothering. Does Wisconsin have some huge pile-moving offensive lineman? Yes. PFF has been all bout Cole Van Lanen since he was starting as a sophomore. Find #71 the left tackle and watch him for a drive if you honestly appreciate old fashioned line maulings and don't really care about Michigan's COVID season anymore. It starts with slants and linebackers trying to scurry by only to get shoved off-track and fall into their friends. Seventeen plays later they're just accepting their fate.

He's also perfect in pass pro over some ridiculous number of games, I dunno the announcers will tell you when it's Gush About Van Lanen Time. The rest of the offensive line are Van Lanenites:

The main weapon that isn't an industrial metaphor is Barry Alvarez's grandson, now All-American candidate tight end Jake Ferguson. He's not as dangerous as Pat Freiermuth but he's highly dangerous and when he's been blocking your OLBs and safeties all game then does this it's somehow much more humiliating.

As a blocker he's a wrestler, and I mean that in all the ways. Ferguson has crazy long arms and huge hands that he uses to latch onto your shoulderpads and wrench you around like the yoke of a recalcitrant airplane. He's got one move that he used to get a perfect seal a couple of times where he grapples his guy in the armpit, bends over and then yanks down on your collar with his other hand.

TE #84 top guy on the line of scrimmage

It's brilliant: referees will never call this holding because it looks like he's the one getting wrenched around. While shoving isn't his strong suit (it is Rucci's; watch TE#87 on the above play), Ferguson's blocking ability is much more than craftiness. If he gets matched on a cornerback your dude's leaving the screen and not coming back.

TE #84 inline on the top

HenneChart:

UW vs Illinois	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	SCORE!
Graham Mertz	2	10(5)++++	2		2	-		-	5	-	-		74%	+22/-5=+17

No bad reads and no inaccurate throws on low usage in your first career start is indeed impressive. Doing that against Illinois is "Let the Brandon Peters Era begin" levels of getting ahead of ourselves however. We know he can sling it.

And they give him quick and easy reads (three curls—if they're in man coverage over there get it to the backside ASAP) that he can execute:

Course he might not play, but I don't have film on the backup to the backup of the backup to Jack Coan, sorry.

Wait, I might. Nope, they recorded a few seconds of Jeff Brohm getting rained on against Eastern Michigan on top of that play. But WAIT, there's a replay!

UW vs New Mexico 2018	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	SCORE!
Danny Vanden Boom	-	1+	-		-	-		-	-	-	-		100%	+2/-0=+2

We're doomed.

OVERVIEW:

No matter who gets off the bus, they'll be Wisconsin:

Their OL will blow guys off the line. They'll have a fullback who plants a guy in a pile 16 yards downfield and a tight end who jettisons a guy from the picture, and a patient back who will sit behind all of this until you break down and cry. Along the way there will be many gaps.

Tight ends:

More tight ends.

Holding.

And one completely weird thing that inexplicably works:

The only difference is if Mertz and their receivers are healthy and they face a Cover 2 defense that's anything like Illinois's.

But what are the chances of that?