After a tumultuous bye week, the Michigan Wolverines are back in action this weekend as the #3 team in the country, per the first CFP rankings. Coming to Ann Arbor on Saturday are the Purdue Boilermakers, in year one of a rebuild under new head coach Ryan Walters. This Purdue team is a very different one than the one Michigan saw in Indianapolis, with its stars on offense moving on to the NFL and so much of the team's meaty core being hollowed out by the transfer portal. It's been a long season on both sides of the ball and today we start on offense: 

The Film: For Purdue, this task was pretty easy. The Boilers have mostly played the usual cadre of B1G West garbage, plus a surprisingly strong non-conference slate, but one team stands out in particular as an easy team to use for FFFF this week... the Ohio State Buckeyes. OSU went to West Lafayette a few weeks back and since PSU does not play Purdue this season, Ohio State is the obvious team to use as the comparable to Michigan on both sides of the ball. As an added bonus, we get some advance scouting on the Bucks as well. 

Personnel: Click for big

Purdue has been starting Texas transfer Hudson Card at QB this season and I'm making him the fourth straight opposing QB to wear the cyan circle around his neck. Card hasn't been as bad as Athan Kaliakmanis or Katin Houser, but the numbers are not pretty and he didn't show me much in the game I charted. I admit that Card is far from the only problem and the combination of factors on this offense (subpar receivers and a poor OL) has rendered him to be a much worse performing QB than he did in his time at Texas last season. I was relatively high on Card's talent coming into the season but I don't think he's been put in a position to succeed and well, he hasn't. 59.4% completion, 8 TD, 7 INT, 6.2 Y/A, not great! 

The RB spot finds the lone star on the offense and the Dangerman for the piece, Devin Mockobee. One of the few names you'll recognize from last year's Purdue FFFF, Mockobee is the ex-walk on (now scholarship) RB who salvaged Purdue's run game last season. It's continually tough sledding for Mockobee behind this OL but I remain a big fan of his for grinding out 4.6 YPC on this offense. Speaking of strong YPC clip, let's give a shoutout to Tyrone Tracy Jr. and his 5.4. The half-RB/half-WR one-time Iowa transfer is now mostly a RB and has had a nice season. He didn't appear in the game I charted, but I will toss some video of him in from his other games. Dylan Downing is the 3rd back for Purdue, but he hasn't shown me a ton. 

Last season's Purdue team had a pass-catching group that revolved around superstar WR Charlie Jones and quality TE Payne Durham, both of whom have now moved on. The last man standing from the 2022 group is their #2 WR from last season, slot guy TJ Sheffield. I described him as "a solid option but not particularly exciting" and I think that analysis still holds up, leading the team in catches but not popping on the tape. The leader in receiving yards is Deion Burks, a background character on last year's team who has gotten a much bigger role with all the attrition in the receiving corps. At 5'11", Burks, like Sheffield, is also on the smaller side. Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen has been a reliable receiver for the Boilers but has been banged up recently, having missed the most recent game against Nebraska. His status against Michigan is unknown. In Yasmeen's absence, characters like Jayden Dixon-Veal and Mershawn Rice have filled the gaps but no one at WR has made a major splash or is likely headed for NFL success. 

Injuries have been a major story for this Purdue team, which leads us to discussion of TEs. Max Klare, their best TE, is out for the season, meaning that Garrett Miller is now the starter. I was not impressed with his blocking ability against OSU and he is a long ways off from Durham as a receiving TE. Drew Biber is now the backup TE, a lackluster blocking TE, and the absence of Durham is definitely felt. 

Where injuries have had their greatest effect is on the OL, with two of the three returning starters from last season out for the year, Marcus Mbow and Mahame Moussa. This has left the starting tackles as Daniel Johnson on the left side and Ben Farrell on the right, both of whom are major weak spots. The guards, Preston Nichols and Jalen Grant are both players Purdue picked up in the transfer portal from Michigan non-con opponents, UNLV and BGSU, respectively. They have been better than the tackles and avoided the cyan, but neither are terribly good. Gus Hartwig is a returner at center but he missed the B1G title game last year with injury. He's probably the best OL on the team, but even he looked pretty bad in the game I charted. With injury ravaging Purdue's depth, the little-used Luke Griffin is one of the 6th OL candidates. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Not good!]

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Purdue has maintained their Brohm spread offense principles, even with a new regime in charge. Last season I had them at 4% under center, whereas this year, they're at a big fat goose egg: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	23	6	32	100%
Under Center	--	--	--	--

As an Air Raid scheme, Purdue is a pass-happy offense. They have a near-even split between pass attempts to rushing attempts this season, but the number tilts towards the pass when you factor in sacks. In this game against Ohio State, passing was the go-to: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	9	13
2nd	9	13
3rd	5	10
4th	-	2

Base Set: The Boilers are the least interesting team I've charted this year in terms of personnel packages and formations. They played nearly exclusively out of 11 personnel: 

The other base look in 11 being to flex the TE out:  

The only interesting curveball they threw in, besides a small sprinkling of two TEs, was lining up a WR in the backfield next to Card and an RB. Here was outside WR Deion Burks lined up in the backfield: 

Still 11 personnel, just a bit funky. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Pretty even split against OSU in terms of gap vs. zone plays. A lot of split zone, counter, and power, but not really a decisive indicator in any one direction towards the Basketball on Grass spectrum or the MANBALL bucket. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: While Purdue may be boring in terms of personnel and formation, they are the most up-tempo team Michigan has seen all season to this point. The Boilers rank 35th in plays per game at 73.5, but when you factor in them at 68th in TOP, their rate in plays per minute is quite impressive. Tempo was not constant, but quite regular in the game I charted, so Saturday will be an interesting test of Michigan's ability to handle an old Achilles heel. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Last season the Boilers boasted Aidan O'Connell, who was one of the least threatening running QBs on the schedule. I would argue that Hudson Card is also one of the least threatening running QBs on the schedule this year, but he is substantially more of a threat than AO'C. He didn't show it off a ton against Ohio State, his running moments largely being contained in this one clip: 

He didn't have any designed runs in this game, but Card has 68 rushing attempts on the season and Purdue has allowed 18 sacks. That comes out to about six non-sack rushing attempts per game, be them scrambles or designed runs. Card can move and Michigan will need to be prepared for it. 

Dangerman: Last season we went with Charlie Jones as the Dangerman, this time around it's RB Devin Mockobee. On an offense that reminds me of Michigan State in its lack of impact pieces, Mockobee is the player I still feel the most warmly about. I wrote this about him last year: 

There is some lacking athleticism, but in terms of a nose for running with the football in his hand, Mockobee has it. You can't teach natural football IQ or heart and Mockobee is chock full of those attributes

Watching Mockobee against Ohio State, it was still the same guy. The blocking in front of him was often dreadful, but on the rare cases Mockobee got room to run, he was picking up yards. Example: 

And another: 

For memory's sake, let's rehash some of Mockobee's greatest hits from last season: 

I don't think Mockobee is some superstar and I don't think on his own he's going to be able to manufacture a strong rushing game against Michigan if Purdue's line is getting crushed (as they very likely will be), but on a team with an iffy QB and a lackluster cast of skill position players, Mockobee is the player I like the most and he gets the Dangerman designation as a result. 

HenneChart: How is Texas transfer Hudson Card faring as QB this season? Not great, but he's also not being put in a situation to succeed. The Purdue passing game was dismal against Ohio State and Card is a part of it. Not the sole culprit, maybe not even the majority culprit, but I didn't see a ton of good from him: 

Purdue vs. OSU	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Hudson Card	2	9	1		6	4		3		4	1		60%	2

Card's stats in the game, 13/32 for 126 (3.9 Y/A), 1 TD to 0 INT, were grim and the above HenneChart reflects that. There are still some glimmers of the promising QB I saw for Texas last season:

But there were not nearly enough of them in this game, unfortunately. Card was not set up to succeed, receivers who were not getting open and an offensive line that was getting whipped with regularity, but Card does not appear to be a QB who can make things happen in those circumstances. His ability to handle pressure, or even a compressing pocket, leaves a lot to be desired: 

More concerning than accuracy under pressure was his initial reaction to pressure. He started running straight backwards a lot more often than I would've liked for a player who is not an athletic specimen: 

Card had three batted balls in the game I charted, the most of any QB I've scouted this season, another metric of sorts describing Card's response to pressure. When given time to throw, Card was middling, with more marginal balls than you'd like to see.

Most of what Card attempted in this game was very short, near the first down market or in front of it. Throws 10+ yards downfield were a rarity and a lot didn't look great: 

Ultimately, Card never looked like a comfortable QB against Ohio State. Whether that was getting spooked by his blockers or lacking harmony with his receivers, I'm not really sure. He was jittery in the pocket, throwing it short, and not terribly accurately. When pressure came, Card either got the ball out quick or was toast. Playing without structure was not something that he showed much ability to do outside of a scramble. If the battle in the trenches on Saturday is as lopsided against Purdue as it was in the game I charted, I struggle to see a way for Card to lead an effective passing attack. He is not developed enough and his skillset does not match the team he is on, especially one sans two OL starters. 

 

Overview 

When Ryan Walters was hired as Purdue's head coach, he made it clear that Purdue was going to stay Purdue. He may have served under Bret Bielema, but it was not going to be Bert/WisconsinBall. Walters brought in an Air Raid OC in Graham Harrell, as well as a QB with solid credentials in Hudson Card. At the time it seemed like a solid idea, preserving continuity, things of that nature. I do think in the long run it will be a good idea, but the Purdue offense does not have the horses yet and their 86th-place offense on SP+ reflects that. 

The horses are sorely needed on the offensive line and the receiving group. We'll start on the OL. The group I charted was a banged up unit, but amazingly, it is healthier than the one Michigan will see. They were completely annihilated by the Ohio State defensive line. Purdue got some good push on their first drive, allowing Mockobee and Dylan Downing to find success on the ground: 

After that drive it was a continuous bloodbath. Nowhere was this more apparent than on a goal line series where Purdue had a 1st & G from the one and ended the series missing a field goal. They were stuffed on first down and then a MockobeeCat attempt was a catastrophe, a mega-TFL with a holding call too: 

They could not rush for a single yard to save their lives in an obvious rushing situation. Even away from the goal line, most rushing attempts looked like this: 

I don't really have a ton of notes on individual linemen, other than that the backup tackles who have been forced into starting duty are worse than the regular starters (no surprise there). RT Ben Farrell didn't even get a hand on Jack Sawyer here: 

LT Daniel Johnson (playing RT in this clip) is one of the culprits on this next play that resulted in another sack: 

This offensive line couldn't keep Card upright or give him the time to facilitate a strong passing attack. Or give the receivers time to get open, which was another problem. Way too many passing snaps looked like this: 

OL is losing its blocks, Card has to hurry, targets a receiver who isn't open and it's incomplete. None of the receivers really scare me, which is the point I'm trying to hammer home. I think TJ Sheffield and Deion Burks are solid players, but none of the receivers are worthy of that star designation, which is another impediment on the passing attack. They don't have a downfield threat to be scared about and the OL, as presently constructed, cannot hold up against good defensive lines. All this contributes to a subpar offense. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

Nothing really. Michigan has an excellent defensive line and if Ohio State's did this to Purdue's OL, Michigan should be able to do the same. Or possibly better, considering the loss of a starting tackle for the Boilers that has occurred in the intervening time. If Michigan is bludgeoning Purdue up front, I don't see a major path for Purdue to move the ball, likely suffering the same fate as every other offense to face Michigan thus far this season. As we pointed out, Card is not the sort of QB who thrives under fire and Mockobee, while a plucky character, is not Kenneth Walker III. If Michigan is crunching the Purdue OL, it's game, set, match... and it almost certainly will be.