Michigan and Penn State are slated to do battle this week in a game that has huge stakes, with the Wolverines having the ability to keep their B1G East hopes alive if they can notch a win in Happy Valley. Last season was a disappointment for Penn State, finishing 4-5, and this year hasn't quite gone as planned either, despite the Nittany Lions starting the season 5-0. They now sit at 6-3 and have a difficult close to the season with Michigan and Michigan State in the final three weeks. Today we will look at the offensive side of the equation for Penn State and will attempt to sort out the strengths and weaknesses for this team. 

 

The Film: We're using PSU-OSU. Earlier in the season I had planned to use Wisconsin due to its schematic similarity to the Michigan defense, but ultimately I decided that that game was simply too long ago to be optimal. Instead, the Ohio State game was only a few weeks back and in terms of advanced metrics, the Buckeye defense is ranked in the same ballpark as the Michigan defense, so there's a decent comparison to use here. Penn State played Ohio State surprisingly close in Columbus, with the game being a one possession contest until late in the fourth quarter, so the tape of the entire game is very much informative. 

Personnel: Seth's chart, click for big. 

For the third straight season, the Nittany Lions are running out Sean Clifford as the starting QB. He's dealt with some injuries this season and it's not clear how close he is to 100% at the present, but Clifford is mostly the same player he's always been. We'll see plenty of him in this piece. At RB, Noah Cain is the starter, but there is plenty of rotation among the backups, particularly John Lovett and Keyvone Lee. Farther down the depth chart you'll find Devyn Ford and Caziah Holmes, as PSU's RB room is still a clown car, but they are less notable. 

WR revolves around the star Jahan Dotson, who has become the next great Penn State receiver, following in the footsteps of KJ Hamler and Allen Robinson. His partner in crime Parker Washington isn't bad either, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith rounds out the top three names at this position for the Nittany Lions. There's a hefty drop off beyond the three starters, with Cam Sullivan-Brown's four catches constituting the nominal "#4 receiver" for this team.

Instead of using a fourth WR, PSU goes to its TEs, who look a little bit different without Pat Freiermuth around any more. Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson are the two who see a lot of snaps, with two TE sets not being unusual to the PSU offense. Strange and Johnson have nearly an identical number of catches, as both get real run in the passing attack, but neither have emerged as major impact players yet. Tyler Warren is the only other TE to get snaps this season, but he's more of a blocking TE used in running-specific situations.  

Penn State has a pretty consistent starting five on the OL, rolling with Rasheed Walker at LT and Caedan Wallace at RT, a tandem that has been rough, to say the least. On the inside, the grades are a little better, but I couldn't honestly tell from watching the tape of this one (as you will see). The starters at guard are Eric Wilson at LG and Juice Scruggs at RG, with C Mike Miranda in the middle. Leftover snaps on the interior go to Bryce Effner and to Olumuyiwa Fashanu on the outside, but they are not going to see much time, barring injury. The story of Penn State's season offensively has been the profound problems along the offensive line, and so we will talk a good bit about this group in the piece. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: An OL Massacre]

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: PSU is a fully spread offense, running almost entirely out of the shotgun with plenty of receivers wide and lots of pre-snap motion with those receivers. They went under center exactly once in this game, and it was on 3rd & Goal from the one in a jumbo set. This is the same offense that Franklin has been running for a half-decade now despite cycling through several offensive coordinators in that time. Here's the play distribution by down: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	14	21
2nd	7	20
3rd	4	14
4th	--	1

Penn State did a lot more passing than running in this game, which is perhaps notable because this wasn't a game where the Nittany Lions fell down big early and were having to claw their way back. This game was very competitive throughout, where PSU could craft its offensive approach however they wanted, and yet you ended up with this massive skew towards the pass. You'll see why they had to abandon the run shortly (hint: three cyan'd OL starters had something to do with it). 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Given what we already talked about, this is a Basketball on Grass team. They spread it out, and only trotted out the heavy package at the goal line. Otherwise third and shorts were still run out of the gun, often with a QB read involved. Here's their base set: 

Shotgun for Clifford, a RB to his side, one TE on the field, and your three WRs split outside. This is the most common formation PSU runs with, but they will put four receivers wide with a lone RB in the backfield out there often, and even five wide on some occasions. Two TEs are used in some instances, also. 

One note on the Basketball on Grass thing: Penn State runs a ton of screens. 26% of the pass attempts that I tracked for the Nittany Lions in this game were screens, and it became a more recurring piece of the offense as the game went along. They will stretch it out horizontally in the screen game and then still try and hurt you vertically through having Jahan Dotson. 

Hurry it up or Grind it out: Penn State generally operates at the same speed as most NCAA teams, but they did flash tempo in this game on a number of occasions, and that's something you have to think is coming at Michigan this weekend. Here's an example of where they went tempo in the red zone, which may remind you quite a bit of MSU: 

PSU threw it out at plenty of times besides the red zone, but if I had to guess where it will feature the most, I'd say in that part of the field. The Nittany Lions aren't going to turn it into a track meet, but especially against Michigan, you have to be ready for the tempo in key moments and be ready to adjust. 

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Sean Clifford has been a pretty active runner throughout his NCAA career. His ability to hurt you with his legs when your defense breaks contain has been high up on his scouting report for years now and it's still there. As is the QB designed run/read option component of the offense, which dates back to the McSorley days. That said, it has become more muted in recent weeks since Clifford sustained an injury against Iowa. The Nittany Lions were very hesitant to let him run it at all against Illinois (which was a contributing factor to PSU's humiliating loss in that one) and they added it back into the game plan a little bit in this game, but it still is not nearly the factor it normally is. 

Here's a look at a Clifford read option keeper: 

That, in addition to scrambling when the pocket breaks open, is the area where Clifford's legs will come into play the most. They did also feature a triple option of sorts in this game, with Twitter user @SpaceCoyote broke down here:

Triple option pic.twitter.com/I3gFWvcSr6

— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) November 10, 2021

They'll throw a few different Clifford rushing looks at you. He's not a burner, especially not while still probably dealing with some degree of an injury, but it is on the scouting report as a major component to remember. We gave Payton Thorne a 6, so let's give a somewhat injured Clifford a 6 as well. 

Dangerman: This one is pretty easy, it's WR Jahan Dotson. I do think that PSU has a few very good running backs, but the severe problems with the blockers in front of them have largely destroyed any opportunity for them to grow into attaining the true Dangerman status on this offense. Meanwhile Dotson is who the passing game is built around, a home run threat who can also get open over the middle. In this game we saw more of the latter, Dotson finding spots in OSU's zone defense and getting himself wide open over and over again. Here's one such example: 

WR #5 to bottom of the screen

And another: 

WR #5 to top of the screen in the slot

He's also got the ability to blow the top off a defense, and though he didn't do it in this game, we do have a clip of it from week one against Wisconsin, when I FFFF'd that game for the Badgers: 

Dotson isn't the biggest receiver at 5'11", nor is he KJ Hamler fast, but his long strides allow him to pick up speed in a hurry and he's one of those receivers who simply knows how to get open. This has allowed Dotson to become PFF's 18th best WR in the country this season, which, knowing PFF, means he's only trailing a few guys who play for UTEP who are flawless against subpar competition because that site refuses to curve for competition. Michigan is going to learn a lot about its corners this weekend and watching them go up against Dotson in particular will do a lot of the teaching. 

HenneChart: Many words have been said about Sean Clifford over his PSU career, on this site and on countless others. Where does he sit at this point, after nearly three full seasons as the starter in State College? Let's take a look at the HenneChart: 

PSU vs. OSU	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
Sean Clifford	-	23	-		2	2		-	3	8	3		62%	-

I have derided Clifford quite a bit, but this season hasn't been bad from him and I thought this game was pretty solid. It didn't knock my socks off, but he gave Penn State a shot to win in the Horseshoe. A better offensive line and PSU probably comes away with a win in that one. On that note, Clifford stood in the pocket in this game and delivered catchable balls despite being just a second away from getting thumped. His offensive line gave him no help, making Clifford take a ton of punishment, but where some quarterbacks would panic and get rattled, Clifford was a gamer. Example A: 

That's not a world class throw, but considering he's got pressure bearing right down in his face, it's one you have to respect. Here's another example: 

Credit to Dotson for getting open, but again you have a blitz that has more rushers than blockers, but Clifford was unfazed, firing a catchable ball to an open receiver one second before taking a hit (there was actually a roughing the passer call on that play). If you go back to the first Dotson clip I dropped in during the Dangerman section, you'll see an offensive line breakdown that Clifford was able to overcome by making a crisp, accurate throw. I didn't mark him for any dead-on throws, and there certainly were mistakes. For instance: 

Look, Clifford was not helped at all by the offensive line, but he can't heave that ball up off his back foot. That wasn't a desperation 4th down play at the end of a game where the risk is next to nothing, it was a 2nd down play when you're only down three against a great opponent. He needs to just take the sack or throw it away there. Clifford also showed bad accuracy at other points: 

Clifford is a QB who is not likely to rip a defense into pieces (not like his OL will give him much time to do that anyway), but he is not bad either, and I think he's better than he was a couple years back. The injuries have somewhat muted the running threat but he's a veteran starter who is willing to take the abuse to give his team a chance to win the game. Accuracy won't always be there and he'll make a few bad decisions, but this is also a pretty effective passing attack in spite of the horrendous offensive line. Clifford deserves credit for that. 

 

Overall

We've been mentioning it over and over again. You've seen snippets of it in the clips I've already presented. But what the hell is going on with the Penn State offensive line? I don't know what the root of the problem is because I'm not an offensive line coach, but it doesn't take a football savant to tell you that this unit is struggling mightily. They've allowed 20 sacks this season in 9 games, despite starting a QB with good escapability, placing them in the ballpark of such B1G opponents that Michigan has seen like Northwestern and Indiana. Not great comparisons! 

The clearest way you can tell there are severe OL problems is by looking at the rushing numbers. Penn State entered this season with a deep room of experienced backs, getting Noah Cain healthy from the injury that knocked out nearly his entire 2020 campaign, a player who rushed for 5.3 yards per carry as a freshman in 2019. This season? 3.2 YPC (!). If you combine the numbers of the three RBs who get the majority of the carries (Cain, Lee, and Lovett), their clip is just 3.8 YPC, and of course that's spiked by a lot of bad defenses on the schedule. Here's their B1G rushing clips as a team: 

• Wisconsin: 2.8 
• Indiana: 5.0 
• Iowa: 3.2 
• Illinois: 2.1 
• OSU: 1.1 
• Maryland: 2.8

Excepting the Indiana game, this is a Penn State team that can't run the ball against anyone. And it's not because they don't have talented running backs. In fact, they have a lot of those. Just watch this game for a few minutes and you see why they can't run the ball: 

On that play you have both tackles, Rasheed Walker on the left and Caeden Wallace on the right, getting themselves in trouble, as well as center Mike Miranda, who struggles mightily.

The interior of the line messes up this one, resulting in a run stuff: 

Here's a critical sack they allowed, with Walker and backup Bryce Effner allowing Clifford to be stripped and surrendering a Scoop N' Score: 

That singular play was quite possibly the deciding factor in the game. Caedan Wallace is beaten badly here, while Juice Scruggs is dazed and confused, leading to a crucial turnover on downs: 

I could keep on going with these clips but there's no reason to. Not a single lineman graded out well, and they just got routinely whipped all night long. The right side of the line was bad. The left side of the line was bad. The interior was bad. The RBs had no room to run, and Clifford's head was on a pike by the end of the night. Ohio State has a very good defensive line (like they always do), but Michigan has a pretty solid one themselves, and a quick glance up at those rushing tallies indicate that this should be an area of clear advantage for the Wolverines. 

Is there anything to like about PSU's offense? Well we've already talked about Clifford and Dotson, but Parker Washington is a good receiver too. Not Dotson-level, but he's a big piece of the passing game. Washington had an easy time getting open in OSU's zone coverage and Clifford found him when he had time: 

WR #3

Noah Cain has the most carries for PSU but I like Keyvone Lee a lot, and he's put up by far the best individual numbers of a PSU back this season: 

My final note is about how screen-heavy the PSU offense is. I stated that earlier when talking about Clifford, but they run screens all the time, mostly bubble screens to the receivers, either Washington or Dotson. Here's one for Dotson that worked well: 

The heavy reliance on screens may well be a function of how terrible the offensive line is (needing to get the ball out quick) and it also helps to get the ball in the hands of the playmakers. This will be a big game for Michigan's corners not just in coverage, but also when it comes to tackling and shedding blocks on the perimeter. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan?

Just looking at this phase of the game, Michigan should have a massive advantage along the defensive line. We saw Michigan's DL handle a not great OL in MSU, but I think Penn State's is demonstrably worse, and also the factor that made Michigan State survive that game (KWIII) is not suiting up for the Nittany Lions. I will be very surprised if PSU is able to run between the tackles whatsoever. Clifford should also be under constant fire in the pocket from Ojabo and Hutchinson, and if Michigan can produce a turnover as a result of that, that's huge. 

The matchup probably hinges on whether Michigan can contain the home run threat. This game will be fascinating for Vincent Gray in particular, because I think he's very well suited for the screen component of the PSU offense, as he has been a very strong tackler on the perimeter this season. But on the flip side, this could be a walking nightmare for him when facing receivers like Washington or Dotson. Or maybe it won't be! Gray has looked alright this season covering receivers, and DJ Turner II has come on strong in recent weeks. We just haven't seen Michigan face a passing offense as functional as Penn State's this season, and that has to be taken into account. But again, the pass rush could negate that. Should be a fascinating game.