Michigan's first road game of the season is this Saturday against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln. The Huskers are 2-2 on the season, with an offense that features a lot of rushing, QB controversy, and turnover woes. We will do our best to cover all of that in this piece today.

The Film: Nebraska has played four teams this season, Minnesota, Colorado, NIU, and Louisiana Tech. As a policy, I do not do chart against Group of Five teams unless I have to, which leads to a bit of a predicament. Nebraska's QB in the first two games was Jeff Sims, who then exited the Colorado game with an injury. Nebraska's QB in the next two games was Heinrich Haarberg, who seems favored to get the start on Saturday. In theory this should make me compelled to do either the NIU/La. Tech game but with both defenses being wretched, I ultimately felt the best way to go about this was the following: to chart the Minnesota game (by far the best defense Nebraska has played) in order to get a feel for all the other positions + Jeff Sims, should he play against Michigan, but watch the tape of the NIU/La. Tech games and chart the throws of Haarberg in one of them, to get a feel for him. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Nebraska's probable QB for Saturday is one Heinrich Haarberg, an in-state product of Kearney, Nebraska, who was a 3* ranked 600th in the composite in the 2021 class. After two years under Scott Frost, Haarberg has gotten his chance under Matt Rhule after the injury to Jeff Sims, the Georgia Tech transfer. Haarberg has mostly profiled as a runner, surprisingly nimble for a 6'5" QB. Sims is also mostly a runner, much more tank-shaped at 6'4/220. Sims had well publicized issues with turnovers that submarined Nebraska against Minnesota and Colorado but I'm not convinced he was a worse QB than Haarberg.

At RB, the picture has changed dramatically due to the injuries suffered by Gabe Ervin and Rahmir Johnson, both of whom are done for the season. Anthony Grant is now the bellcow for the Huskers, a man with a long and winding collegiate career that began at Florida State and included a stop in JUCO with the New Mexico Military Institute. Frost brought Grant to Nebraska last season and he led the team in rushing yards with 915 (on 218 carries). Grant seemed like the bet to lead the group into 2023 but fumble problems in fall camp led to him being dropped on the depth chart. That didn't improve when Grant had a devastating fumble against Minnesota, but with all the injuries, Rhule is now stuck with him. He got 22 carries against Louisiana Tech and I'd expect that to be the same on Saturday. There were just seven non-Grant/Haarberg carries in the La. Tech game and no one got more than two of those. That one person was Emmett Johnson who is the nominal backup RB but for now, Grant is the only guy. 

The wide receiver group is quite different than last season due to the graduation of star Trey Palmer. Marcus Washington is the only returner to be mentioned prominently in last year's FFFF, an unremarkable outside target who boasts six catches through four games. The most used receiver by far is UVA transfer slot WR Billy Kemp IV, who doesn't play nearly as much as the other two receivers but has nearly double the catches of any other target. Some of that is from jet sweep forward toss plays, but most of his true catches are short stuff. Alex Bullock is the other starting outside WR, another receiver like Washington I have nothing of note to say about. Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda is the closest thing to a fourth WR but the rest of the catches go to the TEs. 

Speaking of which, the TE spot features a one-time Michigan recruiting target Thomas Fidone II. Nebraska was able to keep the 2021 near-5* in the Great Plains (originally from Council Bluffs, IA) and away from the Wolverines. After two injury riddled seasons that have resulted in him now sporting a knee brace, Fidone has started to round into a player and was the closest thing to a Dangerman on a team with uninspiring skill position players. His three touchdown receptions (one in each of the last three games) was a primary motivating factor there. Fidone has started to pull past the #2 TE, Nate Boerkircher, who seems acceptable. Sometimes Nebraska loads up with three TEs and brings Luke Lindenmeyer onto the field but he's exclusively a blocking TE. 

Nebraska's offensive line has been alright in run blocking and very rough in pass blocking. Many of the issues it has in pass pro date back to LT Turner Corcoran, a one-time blue chip prospect who is a turnstile at this point and a major anchor on the line's protection issues, earning a cyan for the second straight year. It's not all Corcoran though, as the TEs and RBs have also struggled protecting the QB and it's not like the OL is a fortress elsewhere. Ethan Piper gets his second start against Michigan at LG and is alright, a term that could be used to describe ASU transfer C Ben Scott. Neither guy is great, but they are doing enough to hang around the Mendoza line. Behemoth 6'9" RT Bryce Benhart is PFF's favorite on this line and I had no real issues with him during my viewing, while RG Nouredin Nouili is rotating with Henry Lutovsky, something I cannot figure out because Nouili didn't have many hiccups while Lutovsky is just as brutal as he was in my review of Nebraska last season. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: I hope you like watching the QB run]

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Nebraska probably fits more into the hybrid category, certainly some spread looks with four and five skill position players lined up wide on passing downs, but also willing to go old school beef. They have plays where they bring the sixth OL out and load up with two and three TEs. Their under center percentage may end up being the highest we see all regular season with Iowa not on the schedule: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	20	4	15	70%
Under Center	12	5	--	30%

As a whole, it's a pretty run-heavy offense, something that has been exacerbated by the problems their quarterbacks have throwing the football: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	17	9
2nd	11	8
3rd	4	7
4th	-	-

They have attempted 83 passes on the season in four games but call more passing plays than that, it's just that a chunk of them end up with the QB scrambling instead of passing.  

Base set: Nebraska doesn't do anything too interesting with formations, playing out of 11 and 12 a lot. 11 is most common, which typically looks normal: 

Their most interesting format alignment is that 6 OL + 2 TEs BEEF look: 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Nebraska doesn't pull the linemen that much, falling more into the zone-based Basketball on Grass territory. However they aren't completely in one bucket or the other, as I still charted ~10 plays with a pulling lineman, counter and power being their favorites but Down G appeared once too. One note on their running concepts: Nebraska loves pre-snap motion and using wide receivers and tight ends to get going as lead blockers on plays, in addition to their affinity for the QB draw. You will see both of those in the clips to follow. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: Didn't notice anything particularly interesting with tempo that Nebraska displayed against Minnesota. They were more in the middle, if not on the slower end against the Gophers. Given the clock rules, I wouldn't expect the Huskers to be speeding up as a massive underdog against Michigan on Saturday. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Here's where things get interesting and honestly, this begins the bulk of the piece. Nebraska's offense revolves around the QB run component, be it running read option or option pitches, just having the QB threat in the box to delete a linebacker when the playcall is a standard give to the RB, or having the ability to scramble when their leaky pass protection breaks down. This was true whether Jeff Sims was the QB or Heinrich Haarberg is at that position. As I mentioned, they LOVE the QB draw: 

Haarberg already has two rushing TDs on the season and had a third one called back against Louisiana Tech due to a dubious WR hold. Here's his long TD run that was not overturned: 

And here he gets one on a read option: 

Haarberg is not the fastest runner of all time but he can move for a guy his size and his best traits are how instinctual he is as a runner, reading a defense to find the holes and holding the mesh point long enough to sell the fakes to the defense. Sims is a little bit beefier and looked at his best not in the open field but in 3rd & short situations: 

The coaching staff does well to help facilitate this QB run game. As I mentioned, both QBs like to scramble and Haarberg in particular has used that as a crux on passing downs. If he scrambles, he's not a QB who is going to duck out of bounds after a few... he wants to lower the shoulder and fight for every yard: 

As for an actual rating, I'll give them both 8s. You have to be in Justin Fields/Denard territory as an athlete to go beyond that for me, which neither of these QBs are, but the entire threat that these two pose as players is through their legs, which is why an 8 is justifiable in my mind.  

Dangerman: I had trouble coming up with a Dangerman because the skill position players for the Huskers do very little to move me. It couldn't be RB Anthony Grant, who only is the bellcow because of injury, and the WRs are far from that title. The only option I was really left with is TE Thomas Fidone II and his three TD caatches. Fidone was a highly touted recruit in the 2021 class, a member of the basketballer --> TE pipeline who Michigan was a big fan of, but Scott Frost's Huskers were able to reel Fidone in. His first two seasons in Lincoln were disappointing, as Fidone dealt with major injuries but in 2023, health has finally returned to Fidone's body. His performance in the game I charted against Minnesota was quiet, but he's started to heat up and look more comfortable in the offense with each passing week. This catch against NIU was a dandy: 

Fidone got himself a TD against Louisiana Tech by being open when Haarberg needed to get the football out amid collapsing protection: 

I would recommend covering him on a seam route or else you will give up a TD: 

Fidone's blocking didn't impress me against Minnesota, but his PFF grades have been much better as a blocker in the other three games. I wouldn't expect him to be an unstoppable force as a blocker and he's mostly a Dangerman because he's been Haarberg's preferred red zone target and I think there is still quite a bit more room for Fidone to grow. Which says a lot on an offense where I don't think that can be said about many players. 

HenneChart: Now we get to examine the dynamic between Heinrich Haarberg and Jeff Sims. As mentioned previously, I do expect it to be Haarberg on Saturday because Sims does not appear to be 100% of the way back from his ankle issue, whereas Haarberg was given the green-light by Rhule yesterday. Considering the massive role that mobility plays for both of these QBs, you need to go with the one who is healthiest and most fleet of foot and that's Haarberg at the moment. 

Is that good news or bad news for Michigan? I'm not sure it's really any news. Sims got dunked on by analysts for his parade of turnovers against Minnesota and Colorado, which, fair, but I'm also not sure it's clear that Haarberg is a better QB than Sims. He's gotten the easier draw and has been better at protecting the football against those either teams but we have not seen Haarberg against anything resembling a real defense. Presumably we will on Saturday. I charted Haarberg against NIU and here was the result: 

Nebraska vs. NIU	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Heinrich Haarberg	1	9	2		-	3		1	--	2	2		71%	5

Not too bad, but NIU is a bad defense. What I primarily noticed watching Haarberg throw the ball is how short his average depth of target was. Very little down the field and it was probably to prevent decisions like this: 

Most of what he was throwing was five yard hitches, crossing routes, screens, things of that nature. When he did throw deeper, his accuracy started deteriorate and signs of bad reads like the above clip popped up. This next clip was probably the best throw I've seen him make in either of the two games: 

The INT problems that Sims dealt with haven't been there because 1.) Haarberg largely has refrained from making the sort of throws that can result in that and instead scrambles or checks it down and 2.) he's played terrible defenses. Given what I've seen from Haarberg, if he targets it deeper down the field against a great defense like Michigan, I am inclined to think the result will be decently Sims-like. Speaking of Sims, here's his Minnesota HenneChart: 

Nebraska vs. Minn.	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Jeff Sims	3	4	2		1	3		1	--	2	3		60%	1

Sims' DSR looks fine, but the bad throws he made were real bad. Accuracy was iffy but more marginal than Game Over, while reading the defense was his achilles heel. Remember this one? 

His arm showcased more "wowza!" moments than Haarberg's but his Minnesota tape was a rollercoaster of highs and lows. There was this zip to Washington: 

Followed by this devastating interception into double coverage two plays later: 

Haarberg probably gets the nod over Sims if both are healthy because he's had better ball security and avoided that thus far, but I wouldn't be shocked if Haarberg has some Sims-like moments against Michigan and Rhule is back to square zero headed into the sixth game. Here's the state of Nebraska QB play and the mood of the fanbase, summed up by Nebraska football expert friend Daniel Thompson:

Everyone wants Haarberg to get the start and I think many are in denial that Sims is still who Rhule wants to be able to play. I've heard people claim Sims isn't actually hurt and the injury is to protect his ego but I really doubt that. People seem to be in denial that Haarberg can't throw either and has only been marginally better passing against very bad competition. So really all the buzz is just denial.

Ah, year zero. 

 

Overview 

So how do we feel about the Nebraska offense overall? As an overarching statement, I think it's probably quite bad. SP+ rates it 85th and going across the performances, there's nothing terribly inspiring. The Huskers gained 341 yards at 5.4 YPP against a Colorado defense that has allowed 522 yards on 7.2 YPP to Oregon and 499 yards on 5.7 YPP to Colorado State. Nebraska gained 295 yards on 5.3 YPP against a Minnesota defense that ceded 492 yards on 6.2 YPP to Northwestern and 519 yards on 6.7 YPP to UNC. Their other two games were against defenses ranked 102nd and 129th and in neither game did Nebraska surpass 450 yards of offense. 

There's been discussion about Nebraska's offense testing Michigan because of their mobile QB and problems that has given Michigan at times in the past, but for me there's a difference between a mobile QB and a one-dimensional running QB. Right now both of these QBs look like the latter in part because the passing attack is toothless. As I mentioned earlier, Nebraska has only attempted 83 passes this season, fewer than 21 per game. To make matters worse, they're only completing ~53% of those 21 passes per game. 

The passing game is a sore spot for a multitude of reasons. The QBs both have accuracy problems and struggle to read the defense, meaning that short and quick throws are preferable to anything dangerous. That part we've outlined. Next there's the issue of the wide receivers, as this team lacks a home run threat, or any NFL-caliber receiver to speak of, like they had last year with Trey Palmer. Fidone is coming along at TE but he's still relatively inexperienced due to his injuries. And then the icing on the cake is the problems in pass protection. Let's run with that. 

LT Turner Corcoran was cyan'd last season on the diagram and was again this year. Plays like this are why: 

Both Corcoran and Ethan Piper on the left side lose their blocks here and Sims is sacked: 

What may be more concerning is how Nebraska hasn't looked sterling against weaker competition. They gave up a strip sack inside their own 10 yard line to NIU: 

And a sack to the 129th ranked defense in the country: 

At this point in time, it is unclear to me how this OL has any hope of pass protecting the QB against Michigan, so expect it to be another week of "let's get the ball out quick before the QB dies!!!" 

As for the WRs, the only name that is worth tossing out there is the slot guy, Virginia transfer Billy Kemp IV, because he will get a decent percentage of those quick throws. RB Rahmir Johnson was another player who played a big role in this area of the game and so his injury has been another hit to the Nebraska passing game. The outside receivers are mostly just there. I showed one clip of Washington earlier, they're no different than those no-name Rutgers WRs last week. *Yawn*. 

Nebraska's ability to move the ball in all likelihood will revolve around their ability to run it, which Michigan should key in on given the weakness in the passing game. First we can detail RB Anthony Grant, since he's going to get almost all the carries so long as he's healthy. Grant is fine, a feeling I held when I talked about Grant in last year's FFFF. Here's what I wrote: 

I do not see a star there, but (Grant's) a decent player when he is not missing the hole or turning it over. He can grind out yards that the OL doesn't give him from time to time, which sometimes is necessary, but again, the OL wasn't awful in run blocking. 

I went on to complain about the issues Grant had with vision and turnovers. The latter is still a big issue, fumble problems in fall camp and the terrible one against Minnesota. He's been clean since then but it feels like a bit of a ticking time bomb until the next one. As for the vision problems, this was one clip I had last season: 

I didn't see those pop up as much this time around, where Grant remains a mostly solid running back. He generally picks up what the OL gives him and creates only a pinch more for himself. This was my favorite run of his from the Minnesota game, weaving through the holes: 

The effectiveness of the running game will mostly come down to the OL and whether they can open holes. Haarberg/Sims and Grant are decently talented runners and there will be some RPS wins that come along with defending a running QB and the associated schemes, but if Michigan is crushing Nebraska at the line of scrimmage, there won't be much the Huskers can do. And with it will go the entire offense. 

So can Michigan whip Nebraska at the LoS? I'd say probably. The Huskers have a better run blocking OL than pass blocking OL but it is still a very similar unit to the one that struggled against the Michigan DL last year (3 returning starters + last year's 6th man). There are still plenty of moments like this: 

The bigger challenge than handling Nebraska's OL man-on-man will be dealing with the deception in play design and convoluted pre-snap movement the Huskers throw at you. I liked this play: 

Combined with the mobile QB, there are a lot of moving parts in the running game for Michigan to account for and as a result, Nebraska will probably notch some gains. But I don't think there are enough revolutionary wrinkles and I don't think the talent, be it the OL, RB, or QBs, is nearly good enough to work a ferocious Michigan defensive front with the consistency needed to win this game. 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

This is going to be a good test of Michigan's linebackers in the run game, being able to interpret the play and put themselves in the right spots to bottle Nebraska up. The matchup between Michigan's DL vs. Nebraska's OL is probably tilting towards the Maize & Blue on rushing downs, but it's on the LBs to finish off plays and on them + the DBs to deal with the rushing game when it's outside the tackles, as it often can be. I'm curious to see how up on scrape exchanges Michigan is to deal with the read option concepts as well. 

In the passing game, I don't think you need to blitz much to get home against this pass protecting unit and would rather rush four and always leave at least one QB spy on passing downs. Playing zone coverage to deal with the QB scramble isn't a bad idea either, though I'd also feel comfortable in man against the iffy Nebraska WRs too. Occasional blitzes to induce a turnover from the QB aren't a crazy idea, but they may not be necessary. If Michigan can handle the rushing game okay and put Nebraska in 3rd & medium to 3rd & long situations, doesn't feel like there's a formula here for the home team to convert those with any regularity given the state of the offense.