Resources: My charting, UMD game notes, UMD roster, Last Year, CFBstats

Sit down. Have a beverage. Do you like milk? How about apple juice. It has vitamin C in it. I think they add it. I'm getting one for myself. You want one? You should have one.

The film: I struggled to find a good one because Maryland has so many players coming back this week, including their starting quarterback, and recently lost the backup QB. To catch him in a competitive situation I either had to go back to 9/14 vs. Temple, or choose between blowouts of Syracuse (9/7), Rutgers (10/5), or 59-0 at the hands of Penn State on 9/27. I decided then to just make a Frankengame out of PSU, the most Michigan-like opponent, and Syracuse, because I have that film and it's a good idea of what they want to do.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

One of the reasons I watched multiple games is because several important players are back for this game, and the most prominent guy from the last few games is now out. VT transfer/Fred's son QB Josh Jackson is planning to return this week from a gruesome ankle injury (don't watch that). In his absence was QB Tyrrell "Piggy" Pigrome, who left last week's game with his own injury and is probably out for this one. Jackson tried to play a few snaps on the ankle but it wasn't happening. I know what you're thinking here: it's Max Bortenschlager next right? The Bortenschlager is still on the roster, he's now been passed by redshirt freshman QB Tyler DeSue, who is basically the same thing as that tiny Air Force guy they used against us two years ago, or the guy with small hands whom MTSU trotted out this year. DeSue was 4/18 for 88 yards versus Minnesota. Here's his one good pass this year:

Star RB Anthony McFarland (+14/-1, 2 pass protection minuses in my charting plus 107 yards receiving on 16 targets) is going to give it a go with a high ankle sprain. McFarland had four tentative carries last week then packed it in. With good ol' scatback Lorenzo Harrison also out for the season, they may have to roll with RB Javon Leake (+8/-1.5, –0 pass pro), a bull with a jetpack already up to 7 TDs who's averaging 8.2 YPC after clipping above 9.0 last year. Third back Tayon Fleet-Davis is clearly a leftover from Matt Canada's RB/slot position; he has 13 catches on 13 targets for 13 yards per target this season.

[After THE JUMP: guys who were good when not injured, and a little bit of Bortenschlager]

Appropriately for a team that always seems to field five guards on their offensive line, the guards are serviceable when standing. Former Michigan target RG Terrance Davis (+3.5/-1, no pass pro minuses in the Syracuse game) is supposed to be back for this game after battling an MCL injury since September. When healthy he's exactly the kind of guy you'd have on a recruiting board as consolation if Michael Onwenu doesn't come through. The only starter back from last year's line, Davis is a big heavy who's more nimble than you'd think but mostly excels at popping guys like Kemp off their feet. LG Sean Christie (+9/-3.5, –1 pass pro) lost his starting job last year but he was fine in these games, albeit still pretty stiff.

As for the rest, there are degrees of cyan-y bad. The nearest thing to a human capable of stopping Power 5 linemen from going wherever they please is 6th man Ellis McKennie (+3.5/-5, –3 pass pro in various roles). He's best deployed inside but had to spend a lot of time at tackle, which could have led to a lot more minuses if they weren't rolling away from his side. If Davis can't go McKennie draws in at center while kicking out C Johnny Jordan (+4/-5, –5 pass pro), who used to spell Christie at guard, does not have very good field awareness—those pass pro minuses are mostly from complete whiffs that led to insta-pressure—but who can win back his mistakes with a bunch of little +0.5s on power plays. The putrid 11/23 I gave out for blitzers picked up was partly on him, and partly on the rotation of young guys.

Then we get to the second-year OTs and hoooo boy. LT Jaelyn Duncan (+6/-8, –8(!!!) pass pro) was a top-150 prospect because of his hugeness. When he makes contact people move. When he doesn't, it's the norm because his feet are made of lead. The other side is top-250 guy RT Marcus Minor (+0.5/-8, –11.5 pass pro), who shouldn't be on the field, especially at tackle where his exaggerated 6'4"/298 size gets picked on every time he engages somebody. The UFR of this game is a week away but I'm giving you a heads up now that Aiden, Kwity, Uche, and Danna's scores need a Minor disclaimer.

Maryland doesn't give them much help from their pair of decent TEs, Buffalo transfer Tyler Mabry (+1/-3, –2 pass pro, +4 routes) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (+3/-1.5, doesn't pass pro). Mabry has the size to be a good blocker but he's all receiver. Okonkwo is the reverse, though they're both normally going out in routes, often from a flex or even pure receiver position. The receiver corps lost its best two targets—decent slot DJ Turner has voluntarily redshirted to preserve his eligibility for whatever non-garbage fire he transfers to next year, and up-and-comer WR Jeshaun Jones lost the season to injury before it began. What has emerged in their stead is Dontay Demus Jr. (487 yards, 8.9 YPT, 56% catch rate, 4 TDs), a bona fide deep threat. After him it's tight ends and running backs unless you count WR Darryl Jones (148 yards, 8.2 YPT, 44% catch rate) who's made just 3 catches for 21 yards since the early tomato cans, or universal backup WR Carlos Carriere, who's made 9 catches on his 21 targets. Or can't-get-open backup slot Sean Savoy (3.1 YPT, 33% catch rate), since supplanted by VT transfer slot Brian Cobbs (8.2 YPT, 54% catch rate). That's why they're using 2TE sets.

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread. Normally Maryland is 11 or 12 personnel—the fullback got in only on a special extra-OL package I called "Meatball"—with the TE off the line of scrimmage for split zone and pin & pull duties. They'll go 4- or 5-wide with the same guys.

Formation						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	Shotgun	Pistol	Ace	Meatball		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard (60)	71%	21%	3%	5%		2.65		27%	22%	12%	40%
Passing (26)	93%	7%	-	-		3.03		54%	12%	12%	23%
Total (86)	69	15	2	3		2.76		30	16	10	30

(FIVE false starts not charted in the play-calling section)

The afore-mentioned Meatball thing has seven offensive linemen (one in the backfield), and lines up in an unbalanced formation. Replace the quarterback with a blocker and direct snap it to the running back and this is straight-up 1900s single-wing ball:

It's also a callback to the old "Maryland-I" of yesteryear. I love it, even if it's just a short-yardage thing. There's a lot of pistol and occasionally some two-RB sets like Locksley used all the time when he was running the Juice Williams offenses at Illinois.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Manball. They do run stretch zone but they're terrible at it—only RT Marcus Minor could be called agile, and Minor is so weak he'll just get put on his ass. Locksley's thing has always been spread to run inside. He likes to pull guards, and does some funky stuff with them.

Having followed his offenses for years (the Illinois years, he was OC at Maryland when I was covering FFFFs for Ace, and I watched his Bama offense last year a lot to write about Gattis in HTTV this year) I'm glad I can finally draw up his staple, a Counter Trey from a two-back shotgun look:

This now includes an RPO to the slot receiver. Bama even ran it with Tua as an RPO where the quarterback can throw either slant, and was coached to try to get the pass read. Obviously at Maryland it's better to hand it off.

Hurry it up or grind it out? Maryland does tempo in certain circumstances, ready with 31 seconds left on the clock once (very good), and a few more in the 26-seconds range (meh). They pull it out after a big gain and run an RPO from the pistol, or they call it when they're in a 3rd or 4th and short situation and run a QB sneak. Otherwise they're below average-paced. Jackson will take more time to survey and change things up pre-snap.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Even before he blew out his ankle, Josh Jackson was Scott Dreisbach but fast.

They saved most of the QB runs for Piggy, who's hurt. Jackson's zone reads and RPO reads are both heavily slidered to handing the ball off to McFarland/Leake/Fleet-Davis, understandably. I doubt he breaks the pocket very much. Healthy he looks like his brother (former Michigan WR Jerome Jackson). Without an ankle expect that to downgrade to "statue but fast": 1.

DeSue is a B+ athlete who was going to end up a safety if he didn't get an FBS quarterback offer. Let's call it a 7.

HenneChart: Wherein I refuse to watch the Minnesota second half to give you DeSue because it's 8 passes. Also I didn't bother with Piggy. Here's Jackson when healthy against a very bad pass defense and a very good one:

Josh Jackson	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Opponent	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
Syracuse	3	10(1)	-		4	2		1	2x	7xxx	-		57%	x
Penn State	2	1(3)	1		3	2		1	4	1	2xx		36%	x

PSU's zone defense clearly got to him—both interceptions were terrible reads where Jackson thought he had a receiver with leverage in man to man and a zone defender he didn't see cut under it. The Syracuse game highlighted the thing Maryland fans and VT fans will tell you about Jackson: He's Nuke Laloosh:

I understand. I have a wonky-as-hell delivery but I used to be able to pinpoint a baseball on a dot on my parents' garage 4 times out of 5. When I was on, the neighbor kids would gawk.

People sometimes ask me why I became a football blogger instead of a Major League baseball player, and I tell them that other than lacking 30 mph on my fastball and not being born left-handed I've got this hitch in my throw (picked up in softball leagues) where I don't trust my accuracy anymore unless it's off my back foot. Jackson has this same issue. I saw this when he played at VT too: he actually prefers to get out of the pocket and throw the ball while falling backwards.

He's been doing this so long that it's just how he throws I guess. Jackson's been starting since his transfer because he's by far the best guy they have at general football knowledge. On several occasions he correctly diagnosed something the defense was doing pre-snap and adjusted.

Zook/Frames Janklin/Him Jarbaugh Factor: None, which is extremely weird for a guy who's spent so much of his career literally calling the plays for James Franklin or Ron Zook. Maybe it's because they're so often down by so much, but I think it's because they don't trust their special teams. The kicker is just 1/3 this year and has never hit something over 43 yards. They've gone through three punters.

Dangerman: I don't know what Anthony McFarland looks like with a high ankle sprain but I've seen him when he's fine:

And I'll say it again: he's basically Denard:

why aren't you taking a knee?

McFarland is also Denard at trying to pass protect:

why are you taking a knee?

If McFarland is hobbled it won't bother Maryland to use Javon Leake all game. If McFarland is a laser sword, Leake is a pinball:

Leake reminds me of the Rutgers guy this year,  Isaiah Pacheco. Top speed is well past "breakaway" if he gets loose, but even going downhill into the linebacker level Leake's going to get some yards.

Depending on who you ask, Dontay Demus has twice as many targets (60) as the next guy (Okonkwo) unless you include Tacopants and Nachoshorts (46 combined) because the quarterbacks can't hit the zip code of the broad side of a barn. That's because he's tall, fast, and silky smooth like Tarik:

Demus has been a terror against Indiana and had a 56-yard over the shoulder catch against Ohio State last year, but Minnesota, Penn State, Temple, and Syracuse managed to keep him quiet because there's nobody else you really need to double on this team. Not sure I want him against Gray but Ambry should be able to lock him down.

OVERVIEW: How about another beverage? Have you heard of tea beer? It's good. Someone sent me a case of an experimental aphrodisiac ale. It's okay that your apple juice isn't touched yet; let me get you one. There. I want you to be comfortable here because there are a lot of things that are going to look really bad from afar. Like "the offense."

I think you have to give them time because injuries have screwed with all the guys you want to be getting experience. Go back for a second to the one I showed where McFarland can't pass pro to save his quarterback's life. Look at the whole protection and how it reacted to a twist blitz that the call should have been able to gather:

Offensive line coaches are screaming at that left guard and center to see what's in front of them. They have the right call for this, but everyone gets so locked on to what they saw before the snap that they all end up a gap over from where they ought to be, the RT trying to deal with two dudes and the LT chasing the guy the RB was supposed to get. Why? Because their heads aren't up.

It reminds me a bit of Minnesota a few years ago, when Khaleke was wracking up TFLs because they didn't think to block him:

My diagnosis in both cases is a young offensive line that keeps having to shuffle people around, relies on an inexperienced center to make the calls, and possesses zero tackles who could stay with a fast edge rusher if they tried, while getting no help from the tight ends because they're so crucial to the passing game.

This goes beyond the line. The whole team looks like they've just gone through a massive offensive transition, is playing with some cool concepts, and hasn't practiced any of them. Like this is an RPS+a billion play that gets all kinds of material to the playside, and the ball in their most dangerous runner's hands, but once there they don't know whom to block, so nobody does.

I saw it again with this cool shuffle that Locksley was doing before Kansas State made it this week in coach twitter's favorite thing against Oklahoma. Watch Sean Christie (#70)'s pull as he waits for the linebacker to decide which wrong side of his gap he should go to. When the LB decides neither and books it for the frontside, Christie runs after him instead of looking for the replacement.

Cool play, no payoff. I know Locksley and his former co-OC Josh Gattis have this rivalry going, but while Gattis has been learning to better use the guys like Jim Harbaugh and Ed Warinner around him, Locksley's offense conceptually looks like it's out to prove his genius than develop the abilities of his players. Losing all those guys to injury doesn't help, but this isn't Alabama where you can give Pete Golding a $1.2 million salary and he'll dole it out to five-stars who never get injured. This is Maryland, with new starters at 4/5 OL spots and every receiver position, where no matter how far down the depth chart you put Max Bortenschlager fate will find a way to get him under center again. Maybe take a cue from your associate and, you know, keep it simple.

/cracks open a Diet Coke

And have another beverage.