just do this all the time, no pressure [Bryan Fuller]

The Enemy, Ranked: Secondary Comment Count

Ace October 21st, 2020 at 8:36 AM

Previously: QuarterbackRunning BackWide Receiver & Tight EndOffensive LineDefensive Line, Linebacker

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

We've reached the end of this series, as I'm not going to attempt to squeeze in a special teams preview in a pandemic year. (Short version: college kickers.) Unfortunately, it looks a lot like the beginning of the series.

Tier I: The F****** Buckeyes, Again

sorry, this is the only shot we have of Shaun Wade [Eric Upchurch]

1. Ohio State. Yes, the Buckeyes lost two first-round cornerbacks—even if their fans were shocked to see Damon Arnette picked that high—and starting safety Jordan Fuller. Corner/slot Shaun Wade still ensured OSU's spot atop another position group when he opted back into the season his dad lobbied so hard to have. According to PFF's season preview magazine, Wade had more pass breakups (8) than first downs allowed (7) in 2019, a feat no other Big Ten player came close to matching.

Wade can move all around the defense. Cornerbacks Sevyn Banks and Cameron Brown are both 6'1" former four-stars; the former impressed in limited snaps last year, the latter got a lot of attention during OSU's abbreviated spring session. Safety Josh Proctor is expected to be a seamless replacement for Fuller as the single-high safety in their Cover 1/3-heavy scheme. If they utilize a second safety, it's likely to be Marcus Hooker, Malik's younger brother.

This is a defensive back factory until further notice.

Tier II: Good, Slightly Flawed

Wisconsin DBs benefited from a hellacious pass rush in 2019 [Patrick Barron]

2. Wisconsin. One of the top statistical pass defenses in the country returns almost every major contributor and even brings back former starting safety Scott Nelson, who went out for the year to injury in last season's opener. I don't see them in the same tier as OSU, however, because I'm skeptical they can replicate last year's success without last year's monster pass rush—sack leader Zack Baun leaves a big hole at outside linebacker.

When better opponents were able to hold down the pass rush, they feasted. From HTTV:

After an excellent first half of the season, the secondary struggled down the stretch in 2019. While the schedule got a lot tougher, the numbers from their mid-October upset loss at Illinois through the Big Ten title game were ugly: opponents threw for 9.2 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The overall numbers are still excellent and there's experience across the board what with losing only safety Reggie Pearson from last year's secondary. There's a chance UW does their usual reload up front and makes it just as tough to poke holes in the back. They'll be well-coached under defensive coordinator and longtime NFL safety Jim Leonhard. I'm not sure there's high-level NFL talent but if these guys show up in the right place it might not matter.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the rankings.]

it's hard to complete passes on a healthy Tariq Castro-Fields [Barron]

3. Penn State. This unit was banged up in 2019, which moved key players out of the lineup at times and limited those who were on the field. So while the loss of longtime slot corner John Reid is significant, better injury luck for players like CB Tariq Castro-Fields, one of the conference's best cover guys in 2018, could more than offset it.

The entire secondary is comprised of players in at least their fourth year on campus. Lamont Wade will be perhaps the most critical piece; he's projected to move between safety and the slot, though that job could also fall to former Cass Tech standout Donovan Johnson if an outside corner emerges—PSU seems more comfortable with their three experienced safeties and Johnson is slated to start on the outside.

The safeties are solid and there's good depth behind the corners in the form of three four-star sophomores. If PSU's problems on third and long last year can be attributed largely to injury issues, this could be a top-tier secondary.

Tier III: Still Good, Maybe More Than Slightly Flawed

4. Minnesota. There's a lot to like in this secondary, though some of it will be painful for Michigan fans. Coney Durr and Benjamin St-Juste—healthy enough to play quite well, as it turns out—each broke up ten passes last year. Safety Jordan Howden took a big leap as a sophomore after a rough freshman year. 

The playmaking impact of Antoine Winfield Jr., now in the NFL, was hard to overstate. Nickel corner Chris Williamson was also one of the defense's better players. Nobody is going to replace Winfield's remarkable versatility and production unless the Gophers hit the lottery with former top-400 recruit Tyler Nubin. The nickel spot looks like a major question mark.

Winfield recorded seven of the team's 14 interceptions last season; no other defensive back had more than one. This team lost a lot in the first two levels of the defense and the third may not be able to provide the playmaking they need to make up for it.

5. Michigan. The safety duo of Dax Hill and Brad Hawkins should be anywhere from good to excellent. Cornerback, particularly beyond Vincent Gray? Look, Brian's got it covered.

Tier IV: Flawed

it took a special effort to make a big play on Tiawan Mullen [Fuller]

6. Indiana. According to PFF, cornerback Tiawan Mullen finished second in all of FBS at forced incompletion rate (30%) in his true freshman season. He didn't just stand out to the game charters; he popped on film, and even impressed when allowing a touchdown to Donovan Peoples-Jones (pictured above) because it required an inch-perfect pass and spectacular leaping catch. He had 3.5 TFLs and two forced fumbles. He's a Dude.

The rest of the secondary? Jury's out, to say the least. In conference play, IU allowed 7.9 yards per attempt and 18 passing touchdowns while recording only three interceptions, good for 11th, 13th, and 14th in the Big Ten, respectively. Only Rutgers allowed more scrimmage plays of 30+ yards.

There are a couple emerging players who could improve the outlook; other than Mullen, though, this still looks like an Indiana secondary.

7. Michigan State. I assume former top in-state recruit Julian Barnett will be a good corner, but I can only assume that, because he played wide receiver last year on a team with serious roster holes. The other corner spot, meanwhile, could be a problem; diminutive Detroit native Kalon Gervin hasn't lived up to his four-star billing and could be overtaken by unheralded senior Shakur Brown.

Tre Person, who was not good at corner, is likely starting at safety. The locked-in safety starter, Xavier Henderson, is good in coverage but a real adventure in run support. As we've noted here, oh, ad nauseam, recruiting hasn't been great in East Lansing lately; even with some defensive staff holdovers it's hard to expect the Spartans to return to classic form, especially after another year gone without said return. When they bust, they bust big.

Tier V: Tragic

oops [Barron]

8. Rutgers. Allowed 9.0 YPA and 23 TDs against only four interceptions in nine Big Ten games. Ohio State transfer Brendon Wright, who looked good in limited snaps at safety in 2018, is eligible to hit the field, which should raise the floor a bit from "it can't get worse."

9. Maryland. Allowed 108 passing plays of 10+ yards in Big Ten play. The next-worst was Wisconsin at 97; the Badgers played an extra game. The next team after that was Rutgers at 79. Instead of an Ohio State transfer safety, they added a JuCo corner. Let's end this.

Comments

LeCheezus

October 21st, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^

I think there is some hope OSU is not quite as good this year in the secondary.  Okudah was a top 10 overall recruit- his replacements are not.

Im not going to say he’s “bad”, but did you see Proctor play against Clemson?  He’s the biggest reason Clemson got back in the game after the targeting ejection shuffled the secondary.  He played very upright, looked stiff, and got dusted multiple times in the open field.  In other words, not Jordan Fuller.

ptmac

October 21st, 2020 at 9:54 AM ^

It's hard for me to not see our secondary as flawed.   We seemed to be scrambling to determine starters 2 weeks before the first game. 

Mongo

October 21st, 2020 at 10:12 AM ^

IDK about indicating it is flawed, but when Ambry Thomas opted out in September there has been a competition to fill his role.  They have been in full pads only since Sept 30.  Will the winner be instantly as good as Ambry ?  Probably not, but saying the secondary will be flawed is an over-reaction.   Safety and nickel play will be strong ... maybe towards the top in the B1G.  Name two safety combinations better than Hawkins and Hill ?  CB is the weak spot, but that is only in terms of one guy lacking game experience.  These backups have been in the system for a couple years and are not Frosh, they know the system.  "Next man up" is how I would put it.  Brown is reloading one position not rebuilding a complete defensive backfield.

This defensive unit, overall, could be one of Don Brown's best in his Michigan tenure.

skatin@the_palace

October 21st, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^

I have the utmost faith in the Safety pair. I also am not as down on Vincent Gray as many other seem to be. If the front 7 can create pressure it will take loads of pressure off of the corners in general. As long as they aren't BAD, I think you're right I think this team can field a defense on par with every other defense under brown outside of 2016. 

ak47

October 21st, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^

The problem is modern offenses force you have 3 guys who can cover athletes in space, OSU will often make it 4 with their wide receiver group. A best case scenario is for this team to have 2 guys who can hold up, a more likely scenario is we have like .5 a guy because Vincent Gray isn't even good enough to match up one on one on an island with other teams top guys. That means the only way our defense is going to be able to hold up is through mostly playing zone. Our defense hasn't exactly been great at zone under Brown.

Blue19

October 21st, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^

We haven't seen Gray play this year and he held up against Alabama’s wrs. So I don’t know where all this negative stuff is coming from that he can’t cover at all. Second, Hill can drop down to cover the slot and Faustin who they are really high on can be the safety and Hawkins is also good at covering wrs. 
 

I’m not saying we will be perfect and Ambry leaving is definitely a loss but let’s not act like we don’t have a way to counter this and are throwing true freshmen in there, especially since the season hasn’t even started yet.  

M_Born M_Believer

October 21st, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^

A summary of the positional rankings (1st = 1 point, 2nd  = 2 points, etc....) Oh and there are 7 positional groups ranked so a perfect score would be 7.  Perfectly bad would be 63.....

9. Rutgers: score - 58

8. Maryland: score - 53

7. MSU: 48

6. Indiana: 39

5. Minnesota: 30

4. Wisconsin: 27

Tied for 2. Penn State and Michigan: 25

1. OSU: 10

 

Looking closer at the individual positions, Michigan lowest ranking (QB - 6th) is also the biggest variable.  Michigan next lowest (CB - 5) is what has most everyone holding their butts at various degrees.  PSU has 3 position groups at 5 (QB, WR and OL).  Doesn't bode well for their offense.  And now with Journey Brown out things don't look promising for their offense.