We're back for Part II of our The Enemy, Ranked series. Last week we covered quarterbacks and today we're handling the running backs. The Big Ten has a lot of shuffling at the running back position this year, and because of the way that college football has progressed, most teams enter the season with a committee of backs and the workload for each is yet to be determined. Michigan is much like the rest of the conference in that way, with several compelling names, but uncertainty regarding the pecking order. I set out to rank each team based on the positional group, so the quality of names at the top, as well as the depth/amount of names play a big role here. If a team doesn't have a returning starter, I defer to the program's track record at developing quality players at that position, as well as recruiting profiles, just as I did in the quarterbacks piece. 

 

1. Penn State

Few teams in the country have five different running backs who all have 50+ career carries to their name AND have maintained >4.0 YPC for their career. Penn State is one of those teams. The Nittany Lions enter this season with five viable players at the running back position, all of could may see substantial work this season. First up is Noah Cain, a former top 100 recruit from the 2019 class who played second fiddle to the electric Journey Brown back in 2019. Cain seemed to be in line to be the #1 back last season after Journey Brown was forced to tragically retire from football due to a heart condition, but a leg injury sustained in the first series of the season opener against Indiana in week one ended his season. That was a shame, because Cain looked primed to be a breakout name nationally after rushing for 443 yards (5.3 YPC) as a true freshman in '19, setting PSU's program record for TD's by a freshman with 8. His 2019 campaign included one of the best grades ever handed out to a running back in MGoBlog's history, when Seth lavished praise on Cain ahead of that season's Michigan/PSU duel in Happy Valley. You can go back and read that FFFF to get a sense of how good Cain could be, now in his 3rd year in the program. Though the awaited breakout year may have had to wait a season, it could very easily transpire this fall. Cain is back from injury and sits atop the depth chart. 

Cain alone would put the Nittany Lions in conversation for a spot towards the top of this list, but what solidifies PSU at #1 is the absurd glut of options behind Noah Cain. With both Cain and Brown out for the what was nearly the entirety of last season, it fell on the shoulders of Keyvone Lee, Caziah Holmes, and Devyn Ford to pick up the slack, and they did a solid job of that. Lee was the "starter" last season, with 4.9 YPC on 89 carries last season + 4 scores, while adding 12 catches too, doing it as a true freshman. He could very easily best Cain to become the #1 back. Holmes was also a true freshman last fall and rushed for 4.5 YPC on 51 carries and added two touchdowns. Ford has 119 carries over two seasons in State College, with a career 4.8 YPC, six touchdowns, and twelve catches. All of these guys would be good backups to Cain on their own, but the fact there are three of them is absurd. And then, because I guess James Franklin only buys products in bulk, PSU landed a highly experienced grad transfer RB in John Lovett from Baylor. Lovett was a multi-year starter with the Bears, boasting 355 career carries and a 5.1 YPC clip to go with it + 29 catches and 17 career TD's. 

I really have no idea how all five of these RB's are going to be able to play each week, and they're all good enough that they deserve to be on the field. In all likelihood, this position group will closely resemble tossing a single Slim Jim to a pack of five hungry dogs and watching them fight it out. Someone's going to get squeezed out and I'd be shocked if PSU ended the season without at least one guy entering the portal. That said, having five quality, experienced RB options is not a bad thing at all, and it will allow the Nittany Lions to sustain potentially multiple injuries and make it out alright on the ground, as they did last season. This group will need better OL play to improve on some of their stat lines last season, but if you're a Penn State fan, RB should be the least of your worries going into 2021. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More running backs by committees]

 

Likely the next great Wisconsin RB [Rick Osentoski/USA Today]

2. Wisconsin

A pretty easy bet for breakout player of 2021 in the B1G is Jalen Berger, next on the list in Badger running backs from New Jersey. A former top 150 composite recruit, Berger only played four games last season due to injury as a true freshman, but he got 60 carries in those four games, rushing at a 5.0 YPC clip and scoring two touchdowns. Berger's yards per carry was a full half-yard better than his competitors at the RB position last season, Garrett Groshek and Nakia Watson, a stat that matched the eye test. That test concluded that Berger was clearly the best RB Wisconsin had in 2020 by a considerable margin. With Watson and Groshek now gone, it's Berger's time to shine, and the speedy, versatile runner seems almost certain to be the next great Wisconsin back in the Dayne/Ball/Taylor lineage. Running behind that usually great OL, so long as Berger is healthy, he should be a stud who piles up the yards. 

But Wisconsin's RB group doesn't just stop there. They managed to reel in running back and B1G Name of the Year candidate Chez Mellusi from Clemson. Mellusi was stuck in a loaded Clemson RB room (not dissimilar to the dogpile of PSU) for the last two years, but in the time he's gotten to play, he's been good. Mellusi has 427 yards on 71 career carries (6.0 YPC) and six touchdowns, and last season he posted the best YPC clip of any Clemson back who had at least 25 rush attempts. A former top 300 composite recruit from the 2019 class, Mellusi seems like he could finally give Wisconsin a back-up RB who isn't significantly worse than the primary bellcow. Isaac Guerrendo rounds out this positional group as a fairly generic option, but it's the star potential of Berger and the quality depth added by Mellusi, in addition to Wisconsin's long track record of being a factory for quality NCAA running backs that puts them in the #2 position on our list.  

 

3. Ohio State 

Speaking of a long track record of producing quality NCAA running backs, Ohio State. Trey Sermon was a third round pick of the 49ers, following in a lineage of Buckeyes RB's in the NFL, one that now includes Zeke Elliott, Curtis Samuel, and JK Dobbins. Sermon's a big loss, especially if you go back and re-watch the way he ripped open Northwestern in the B1G title game. But of course Ohio State won't be without quality options. Master Teague starts as the incumbent, but I'm not much of a fan of his. Yes, he has 104 career carries at a 4.9 YPC clip, but anyone who has watched OSU football in recent years probably has noticed that Teague has been quite a bit worse than the other players he's played alongside. In 2019 his YPC clip was nearly a full yard worse than Dobbins' and last season it was 2.6 yards worse than Sermon's (!). Teague is a fine player, don't get me wrong, but he's also not that level of back, and that happens to be the standard that OSU is used to holding itself to. 

My money is on TreVeyon Henderson to be the breakthrough back by the end of the season, a 5*, top 25 composite player in this most recent class. RB is one of those positions where true freshmen can make instant impacts, as was the case when Dobbins rushed for over 1,400 yards and 7 TD's as a true freshman in 2017. Henderson is an even better recruit than Dobbins was, and he figures to have a big role. Miyan Williams is also an option, carrying it 10 times for 64 yards last season as a true freshman, but I think he'll be #3 on the depth chart. Overall, OSU slots in towards the top of our list because even though I don't think Teague meets the lofty OSU standard, he's still one of the most experienced backs in the conference and is a guy nearly every other team would be happy to have, and that's before you factor in the talent of the other option and the successful track record that the school has in developing RB's. 

 

It's gotten increasingly difficult to do this against Pacheco [Patrick Barron]

4. Rutgers

One of our first entries in the Perry Ellis Hall of Fame of Staying In College Forever, Isaih Pacheco. You may remember Pacheco from when he dusted Brad Hawkins on a TD scamper, a run that lived in MGoBlog lore as an early anecdote on Hawkins' speed that was mostly "wow, that's not good". Yeah, that was back in 2018, and Pacheco is still around, with 2021 likely to be the fourth straight year that Pacheco carries it 100+ times. Back in '18, Pacheco was the #2 option behind Raheem Blackshear, and he then ascended to the starting job the next season, becoming the bellcow for the Cable Subscribers, a title he still holds in the present. With 1,795 career rushing yards, Pacheco is the most experienced back on Michigan's schedule, and a huge part of Rutgers' offense. He's a big and burly (5-11, 215) short-yardage back who also happens to have a touch of speed in his tank, as seen from the Hawkins run. The vision may not be as good, but his physical tools and durability are pivotal, making him one of the very best RB's in the conference. 

Rutgers also boasts an intriguing contrast to Pacheco in Aaron Young, a speedier, versatile back who is most dangerous as a receiver. Young's rushing stats have been nothing to get excited over to this juncture in his NCAA career, but he gives the Scarlet Knights a change of pace and a credible receiving threat out of the backfield, with 23 catches in 9 games a year ago. I'd look for an even larger role from Young this season. The depth isn't as good for Rutgers, but we're rewarding Pacheco's experience and the different dimension that Young gives the team in slotting them in here. 

 

5. Michigan State 

The Spartans made out like bandits when they were able to reel in Kenneth Walker III from Wake Forest in the offseason, a legit RB who makes the team significantly better and brings stability to the positional group. Walker has yet to be the #1 guy for a team, but as a second or third back in both 2019 and 2020, he put up stellar numbers. Walker seems to be trying to enter into the Khris Davis Club of Statistical Consistency by rushing for exactly 579 yards in each of his two collegiate seasons, carrying it 98 times in 2019 and 119 times in 2020 and finishing with precisely 579 yards each year. MSU will probably hope he can carry it more times and for even more yards this season, and his 13 rushing TD's in just 7 games last season is certainly music to the ears of a Spartan offense that really struggled to score last season. PFF likes Walker's elusive ability as a runner and though he doesn't offer much in the way of pass-catching, Walker's value as a consistent, successful rusher cannot be understated for a young and rebuilding program like MSU. 

The only snag Walker will run into is having to run behind this Spartan OL, one that doomed the returning RB's to very poor rushing clips last year. MSU returns Elijah Collins, Connor Heyward, and Jordon Simmons, none of whom even reached the 4.0 YPC clip a year ago. Collins seems like the best bet for the back-up spot behind Walker, and if he can re-find his 2019 form, that will probably be a pretty good tandem. Collins dealt with COVID-19 last season and just didn't seem like he was at 100%, laboring to a measly 90 yards on 41 carries. Back in 2019, Collins was the lead back, rushing 222 times for 988 yards. That Collins is a good power back who can be a bellcow himself. If he's back to normal, write him down in sharpie for the vast majority fo the non-Walker carries.

Beyond those two, Heyward is a big, thumping (230 lbs.) player who is best used as a pass-blocker and who I respect for running the football without wearing gloves like he's straight out of 1971. I should note that there are rumblings this weekend that Heyward is being moved to TE, so we will keep our eyes peeled for that. Simmons got 56 carries a year ago and posted the best numbers on last year's team (as a Tr Fr), a speedster who I think should be the #3 option for this offense and could be quite good if used correctly. Again, it's important to tempter statistical expectations because if the MSU OL doesn't improve significantly, even Barry Sanders would have trouble racking up yards. But viewed in a vacuum separately from the guys blocking in front of them, this is actually a very solid group with a chance to be even better than that if Collins bounces back. 

 

6. Washington

This is a group, like PSU, that is piled high with Guys. Last season they had a three-headed RB group led by Sean McGrew. A former 2016 recruit, McGrew has been in the program for a long time, with four years of experience on the field to date. He's never carried it more than 55 times in a season, but his workload last season would have put him in the 120 carry range, had UW played more than four games. McGrew is a short and lightning-fast guy who complements Kamari Pleasant pretty well. Pleasant is the big and beefy short-yardage guy (6-0, 225), who has also been in the program for five years now. He has never carried it more than 42 times in a season, but like with McGrew, his workload last year would have put him around 100 carries in a normal season. Pleasant offers a bit more in the receiving game, and between those two veteran (some would even be so rude as to call them old) options, Washington starts off in a good place, albeit without the volume of experience seen in guys like Teague or Pacheco or even Walker. 

Beyond those two, Richard Newton has had three years in the program and carried it 23 times for 5.3 YPC and two scores last season. He should have a role. As should Cam Davis, since is where UW's RB room starts to turn into a clown car. Davis had 15 carries + 5 catches last season and posted solid yardage numbers. In addition to those four guys, Washington has three younger players who could factor in, too. RS FR Jay'Veon Sunday and Sam Adams II (no relation to beer or a Founding Father) rode the pine last season but could be in line for more work, while Caleb Berry is a 3* true freshman who is likely destined for a redshirt, but could be called into duty if needed. The depth of this group is its calling card, and I think there's a chance that over a full season as starters, McGrew and Pleasant could elevate the UW RB's into the upper echelon of this list, but for now we start them towards the middle, albeit still in the upper half. 

 

Tayon Fleet-Davis is back for the Terps [Eric Upchurch]

7. Maryland

The Terps have a surprisingly good track record of placing RB's in the NFL, with Anthony McFarland, Jake Funk, and Ty Johnson all being NFL draft picks in just the last two offseasons. That has left their RB room depleted, but still filled with some talented options. Tayon Fleet-Davis returns after spending most of last season in the doghouse, as the team suspended him for all but one game in 2020 due to a 2019 DWI arrest. Legal issues notwithstanding, Fleet-Davis is a good RB who logged at least 60 carries in both 2018 and 2019 at more than 4.0 YPC, while adding slot receiver ability that fits well in Locksley's spread offense. But the Terps have other good options, including some that may start over Fleet-Davis this season, Peny Boone and Isaiah Jacobs. Both guys are big, burly backs, weighing in at over 220 lbs. each and each carried it exactly 19 times a year ago, with decent numbers. And both were true freshmen last fall, so higher upside is still there. Given Maryland's track record at developing RB's, and having a solid, experienced "starter" with two upside options alongside him, they comfortably slot in in the middle of the pack. 

 

8. Indiana 

IU and Northwestern, the next two on the list, have similar situations but I rank the Hoosiers higher due to a better track record at developing backs, with Jordan Howard and Stevie Scott as recent successful alumni being evidence of this. IU loses Scott, who got the lion's share of carries over three straight seasons, leaving several unproven names as possible replacement options. From last season there is Tim Baldwin Jr.. Baldwin is the leader for the starting job as of this writing, playing in only three games last season as a RS Fr, but his impressive 6.4 YPC clip shows the possibilities of his potential. His main challenger is incoming transfer Stephen Carr, a former 5* recruit at USC who has consistently gotten around 60 carries per season each of the last four seasons, sporting a lifetime NCAA average of 5.0 yards per carry and 12 TD's. He's got a ton of experience and is a good veteran presence to complement Baldwin and give the Hoosiers a very solid backfield presence. This probably won't be Stevie Scott caliber, who was 2nd team All-B1G last year, but Indiana should be alright at RB. 

 

9. Northwestern

The 'Cats had a RB-by-committee situation last year and intend to do the same thing this campaign. Isaiah Bowser and Drake Anderson are out the door, so the hope for this positional group falls on Cam Porter and Evan Hull. Porter came on late last season as a true freshman, with 301 yards and four scores in NW's last three games, including 98 and a TD in Northwestern's bowl game win over Auburn. Porter enters as the incumbent, but Hull is an intriguing option. In two seasons with the Wildcats, Hull has a career 7.0 YPC on 495 yards, a tantalizing possibility if provided with more work given his breakaway speed. They also added Andrew Clair as a transfer from Bowling Green, who was quite good in 2017 and 2018 but multiple seasons of injuries have set him back. He should be a fine rotational option. Any offensive positional group is going to be challenged for a team with NW's track record on offense, but the RB's, despite the low ranking on this list, shouldn't be terrible. They have options, a few lottery tickets and the chance at least one hits is pretty decent I think. 

 

Marvin Scott III is one of infinite options for Nebraska [Husker Athletics]

10. Nebraska 

The true clown car RB room on Michigan's schedule is Nebraska, who have no shortage of options, but a real shortage of options who have legitimate NCAA experience. With Dedrick Mills heading off to the NFL and Wan'Dale Robinson transferring to Kentucky, the Huskers have 0 upperclassmen RB's and return just 34 non-Adrian Martinez carries from last season. Yikes. The name with the most Nebraska experience is Marvin Scott III, who accounted for 24 of those 34 carries in 2020. That (limited) experience is the good news. The bad news is he posted a dreadful 2.6 YPC and no touchdowns on those carries, which was a remarkably poor outlier, well over a full yard worse on average than any other Husker RB who carried it at least 5 times last season. The other player who got plural carries last season is Rahmir Johnson. He rushed 8 times for 30 yards, a totally unremarkable profile. With neither of those returning names inspiring much confidence, much of the fanbase has turned its hopes towards two names who didn't play for Big Red last season. That would be Sevion Morrison and Markese Stepp. Morrison was a 4* recruit in the 2020 class who lost his first NCAA season to a nasty bout with COVID-19 (in addition to two injuries), while Stepp is a USC transfer who has 100 career carries (5.1 YPC and 3 TD's). A former 4* recruit, there are some reasons to be optimistic about Stepp, and the same could be said for incoming Tr Fr and 3* recruit Gabe Ervin, but again, none of these three have ever run with the football in an NCAA game while wearing a Huskers uniform. 

I just threw a lot of names at you, and your guess on who starts is as good as mine. As of this writing, Scott Frost is remaining tight lipped as to who the starter(s) will be, giving this incredibly useless answer to reporters at a recent press conference: "there are a few guys who are separating themselves. What order they are going to play and how much they will play is still being determined." Gee, thanks for the details, Scott. In summation, this situation is kind of like when you pull off the highway in a different state and there are listings for a bunch of different restaurants but you've never eaten at any of them and the Yelp reviews for all are rather unsettling. Take a stab at one, maybe it's great, but it also might give you food poisoning. The Huskers have clearly the worst RB situation of a Power 5 team on Michigan's schedule, the one with the least experience, but also no replacement option with a terribly high chance of clicking. 

 

11. Western Michigan 

While Western ranked highly on our QB list, they are not so lucky with RB's. Continuing the theme of Michigan's 2021 MAC opponents hoovering up ex-Spartans, WMU is trotting out La'Darius Jefferson at RB. Jefferson posted abysmal numbers with MSU in 2018-19 before transferring to the Broncos, and while some of that may be the MSU offensive line, his numbers per carry were also quite a bit worse than that of either of the lead backs those two years (Heyward and Collins, respectively), and him exiting the program is some degree of evidence as to where he sat on the depth chart at the time. The good news is that Jefferson put together a really nice season as the bellcow for Western last year, rushing for 465 yards on 5.3 YPC and four scores, but the caveat on that is he played a MAC-only schedule. Though we were willing to overlook it to some degree for Eleby, Jefferson has a wealth of B1G data from not all that long ago and it wasn't great, so I can't really justify putting him higher than any existing B1G RB's. Maybe Jefferson will prove he turned a corner this year, but we can't give him that benefit of the doubt yet. 

Alongside the big and hefty Jefferson are small and speedy options Jaxson Kincaide and Sean Tyler, who both had big YPC clips last season, but again, on a MAC-only schedule. They also are solid options in the passing game and overall, I think Western has a very nice RB group of a MAC team. But there isn't evidence at the moment to rank them higher than B1G teams right now. 

 

Waylee is the leader at NIU RB this season [NIU Athletics]

12. Northern Illinois 

The reason I believe Western has a solid RB group for a MAC team is through comparing it to the other MAC squad on Michigan's schedule, NIU. The incumbent starter is Harrison Waylee, who barely managed 4.0 YPC last season and had just one touchdown, despite running the ball over 100 times in six games. NIU supporters are optimistic that they got Waylee going at the end of the 2020 campaign, running for 114 and 122 yards in the final two games of last season against Toledo and EMU, but I'm not sure if that was him turning a corner or it just being a mirage. Regardless, with Rocky Lombardi as your starter, Waylee and the broader run game will likely shoulder a lot of weight again. Helping him out are Erin Collins, who was alright in 50 carries last season, albeit with fumble issues, as well as 3* Tr Fr Antario Brown, a surprisingly solid recruit for a school like NIU. Basically, the MAC schools are at a disadvantage in nearly every positional group by virtue of being a non-power school. When you're a middling-at-best positional group within the MAC, as NIU's RB's are, you're #12 on this ranking. 

 

Where does Michigan factor in? 

I think right around 2-3 is a reasonable spot, with higher upside possible. Hassan Haskins has 182 career carries and a 5.5 YPC clip, possessing as much experience as anyone on this list not named Pacheco. Then you factor in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards as high-end recruits who have high potential, and this group has the potential to be terrific. They don't have the volume of guys with experience as PSU, no one does. But they're right there Wisconsin and OSU.