THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Why, yes, that is jazz icon Louis Armstrong with Cy, the Iowa State mascot. Why wouldn't it be?

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

At the moment, there's no update on Franz Wagner's wrist. While he's been spotted without the splint, I'm operating on the assumption he's not playing until we get word otherwise. His addition would be a boost to Michigan's wing depth and scoring; he'd still need to be worked back in slowly, in all likelihood.

UPDATE: Wagner is a game-time decision:

Michigan freshman Franz Wagner (wrist) will be a game-time decision for today's game against Iowa State at the Battle 4 Atlantis, per a school spokesman. Talented freshman has yet to play this season.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) November 27, 2019

Adding him to the lineup would be real, real nice.

PREGAME UPDATE: Wagner is starting in place of Adrien Nunez. I was wrong about everything and I'm okay with it.

THE BRACKET

Click for the larger version, I realize this is next-to-impossible to read.

If Michigan wins this game, they'll play the winner of UNC/Alabama at 1:30 pm on Thanksgiving. If they lose, they'll face the loser of the UNC/Bama matchup at 6:30 pm instead. I sincerely hope you're not planning your family dinner around this tournament.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Finally, a real power forward.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Iowa State comes to the Bahamas at 3-1 with their three wins over relative cupcakes—by far the toughest opponent was KenPom #144 Northern Illinois, whom they beat at home by 18—and the loss by six at #65 Oregon State. Like Michigan, the Cyclones are replacing a lot of production from a good (#15 in KenPom) team last year. Marial Shayok and Talen Horton-Tucker went in the second round of the NBA draft, and starting point guard Nick Weiler-Babb expended his eligibility.

Their new star is sophomore Tyrese Haliburton, a former three-star prospect who's blossoming into a projected first-round pick. He's not your usual NBA prospect in terms of playing style. As a freshman, he was mostly an off-ball scorer, shooting 43% on 113 three-pointers while using a minuscule 10.1% of the team's possessions while on the floor. On the rare occasion he took control, however, he showed great potential as a playmaker, and that's come to the forefront this season: in four games, he has 41(!) assists and only seven turnovers.

At a lanky 6'5", Haliburton has the length to see the floor and find unusual passing angles. While he usually drives to pass, he's a solid finisher with shooting ability off the bounce. He's particularly dangerous in transition; you can see him create quick scores off opposing made baskets in the video above. He's also a disruptive defender with 14 steals so far this season. Michigan can't be lazy with their passes around him.

All of the above said, Haliburton is still only fourth among ISU's starters in usage rate; he's still a player who picks his spots. The top option by usage is 6'8", 242-pound junior Solomon Young, a strong finisher around the basket who's coming back from a lost season. He's formed a solid scoring frontcourt with former Nebraska center Michael Jacobson, who's been one of the country's best offensive rebounders so far this season. Jacobson was an efficient post scorer last year; he can also step out and knock down the occasional three.

Sophomore Penn State transfer Rasir Bolton is immediately eligible after a strange departure from Happy Valley and he's stepped into the starting lineup as one of ISU's three guards. Bolton is a decent, not great, outside shooter who takes about half his shots from beyond the arc, though for a player with that profile he does a good job of getting to the free-throw line. He had an elevated turnover rate last year but that's come down dramatically in ISU's much more controlled system.

Rounding out the starting lineup is 6'2" senior guard Prentiss Nixon, who sat out last year after transferring from Colorado State, where he was a high-usage/middling-efficiency scorer. He's struggled out the gates a bit while taking on a secondary role with the Cyclones, but he's got latent off-ball shooting potential (career 80% free-throw shooter) that he never got to fulfill at CSU.

Sophomore backup center George Conditt is posting some incredible, unsustainable numbers; he's 19-for-22 on two-pointers and has the best block rate (an unholy 21.5%) in the country. ISU's most effective lineups have been with Conditt and Jacobson, who can slide to the four, sharing the frontcourt.

The rest of the rotation features freshman point guard Caleb Grill, who's done a nice job of efficiently running the show in limited minutes, and a couple of thus-far-ineffective Just A Shooter™ types in Zion Griffin and Tre Jackson.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

While they go about it in a different way, Iowa State's efficiency profile comes out similar to Michigan's, with near-identical offensive efficiencies and a slight gap favoring the Wolverines on defense.

Under Steve Prohm, the Cyclones usually field high-powered, low-turnover offenses; this one isn't up to last year's top-ten standard is overall efficiency so far but they do boast a Beilein-level turnover rate. That's particularly impressive given they move fast on offense, posting the 13th-shortest average possession length nationally. Thankfully, Michigan's had plenty of practice lately dealing with fast-paced teams.

ISU's defense has been very good inside the arc; Oregon State shot better on three-pointers (12/21) than two-pointers (17/38) to beat the Cyclones. They're susceptible on the boards, though there's danger in crashing the glass against a team so good in transition. While Beilein is no longer M's coach, I still feel good about a Zavier Simpson-led offense going against a defense that relies on forcing turnovers.

THE KEYS

Control the tempo. I think some version of this has been a key in every game so far this season. It still holds true, though. Juwan Howard's squad has displayed an impressive ability to control and adapt to the pace of the game; they've played everything from a 64-possession slog to an 86-possession barnburner. ISU, meanwhile, puts up almost a quarter of their shots in transition, per Synergy, and Haliburton is particularly dangerous on the break. Michigan's had plenty of practice getting back against high-tempo teams; ISU presents the toughest challenge thus far in terms of athleticism and talent. The Cyclones have also been one of the best transition defense teams in the country as teams have seemingly forced the issue trying to keep pace; the Wolverines have to be careful with their breakout passes and forays on the break—resetting isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Minimize errors on defense. Despite boasting Haliburton, Iowa State hasn't created much offense off the dribble this season; 64.5% of their field goals are assisted, 18th nationally, which indicates a need for halfcourt baskets to come from within the structure of the offense. According to Synergy, ISU is decent on post-ups and spot-ups and very good when hitting cutters or the roll man in pick-and-rolls; their offense falls off a cliff if you force the pick-and-roll ballhandler to keep it (0.5 PPP). Stick to shooters, don't fall asleep on backcuts, and keep in touch with the big men off screens; do this and ISU is going to have a tough time scoring.

X in control. We've seen some uncharacteristic early-season sloppiness from Zavier Simpson, who has 15 turnovers in four games, many of the live-ball variety. In case it hasn't been driven home yet, the biggest key to winning this game is keeping the Cyclones from getting easy buckets on the break, and that means Simpson (and also Isaiah Livers) have to better take care of the ball. If that means driving less often and running more offense through the post, so be it.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 2.

It feels like the team has spent the early portion of the season gearing up for this specific opponent. Keep a handle on transition play and this should be a win.