2020-21 ohio state
mike smith
mike smith super senior possibility
torvik slicing is what we do
hunter dickinson
pick and roll
juwan howard can coach
howard eisley
2021 big ten tournament
ayo dosunmu
2020-21 illinois
caleb houstan
drawing your attention [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Basketbullets Cuts Errors Comment Count

Ace February 25th, 2021 at 1:27 PM

Mike Smith Starts Putting It Together


increasingly dangerous [Campredon]

As opposing defenses have placed a greater emphasis on stopping Hunter Dickinson, the court has opened up for other Wolverines to step forward. The primary beneficiary has been point guard Mike Smith, who's increasing his shot attempts from beyond the arc while slicing his previously problematic turnover numbers in half.

After removing the season-opening cupcakes, the statistical comparison between early-season Smith and the version we've seen since the Minnesota loss is stark. Everything has stayed level except for missing a couple more two-pointers (almost certainly a sample size issue), attempting an extra three-pointer per 100 possessions (given his numbers, great!), and trading off an assist or two per game to cut out an equal number of turnovers, which has been a very worthwhile swap. The result is an 11-point jump in O-Rating, per Bart Torvik:

  ORtg ARate TORate 2PM-2PA 3PM-3PA 3PA/100 FTM-FTA FTRate PPG APG TOPG
Prev. 9 Games 106.0 29.5 30.2 14-33 (42.4%) 11-22 (50.0%) 4.6 12-15 (80.0%) 27.3 8.1 6.0 3.0
Last 5 Games 117.2 26.3 16.0 7-22 (31.8%) 8-14 (57.1%) 5.5 7-10 (70.0%) 27.8 9.0 4.6 1.4

The increased attention on Dickinson has helped Smith. The more important factor, though, is his improved comfort level against the size and speed of Big Ten defenses. A lot of his turnovers earlier in the year were passes that didn't make it through the crowd.

You can see the game slowing down for him. The little hesitation move on this pick-and-roll drive forces the defense to commit before Smith makes the pass, which allows him time to make the correct read to find the right angle to get the ball through clean:

Over the full season, Smith is posting strong numbers as a pick-and-roll ballhandler when you include his passes. He’s slightly above-average as a scorer but his passing puts him in the 85th percentile overall as a P&R ballhandler anyway. If he keeps the turnovers down, the efficiency of these plays will take a substantial leap, too:

  %Time Poss Points PPP %ile FG eFG% TO% FT% Score%
Smith Shot/TO 33.8 69 54 0.783 60th 21-46 48.9 26.1 7.2 36.2
Smith Pass 66.2 135 155 1.148 81st 61-113 63.7 11.9 5.2 48.9
OVERALL — 204 209 1.025 85th 82-159 59.4 16.7 5.9 44.6

Smith has done a nice job of spreading his passes between kickouts to shooters, dumpoffs to the roll man, and quick-hitters to the occasional cutter. Finding the big man on the roll is generally the most efficient way to end a ball screen for any team—save for hitting cutters, because when that happens the other team usually fell asleep, and that happens far less often—and Michigan is no exception with Hunter Dickinson usually on the receiving end of those plays.

Only two Big Ten players, D’Mitrik Trice and Marcus Carr, have hit the roll man more than the 44 times Smith’s posted this season and neither crack a point per possession on those plays while Smith’s in elite territory at 1.23:

  %Time Poss Points PPP %ile FG eFG% TO% FT% Score%
Roll Man 32.6 44 54 1.227 80th 23-33 72.7 18.2 6.8 59.1
Spot Up 57.8 78 82 1.051 72nd 29-68 63.7 10.3 2.6 39.7
Cutter 9.6 13 19 1.462 83rd 9-12 75.0 0.0 15.4 69.2
OVERALL — 135 155 1.148 81st 61-113 63.7 11.9 5.2 48.9

Smith has increasingly gone to the bounce pass, which turns his height (or lack thereof) into an asset instead of a detriment as he threads the needle between taller defenders:

His skip passes are getting through more often, too.

[Hit THE JUMP for Smith's P&R scoring and lethal transition work, plus updates on the BTT, an injury to Ayo Dosonmu, and more.]


the jumper is textbook [Campredon]

Meanwhile, Smith's adding ways to score. He's been lethal as a spot-up shooter all year, ranking in the 98th percentile on catch-and-shoot attempts, and he's starting to hit more shots off the dribble. This three behind the screen looks very repeatable:

I'm open to seeing where these go, too:

While he hasn't finished very well at the basket, his ability to change speeds gets him to the rim. He's always going to be limited in that area by his height but there's still room to get better.

Smith’s improving halfcourt game augments a strong transition attack. When his passes are included, he ranks in the 96th percentile as a transition player, according to Synergy. His speed up the court opens up shots because the defense has little time to get set and gets him layups when a big man might otherwise impede his shot. Juwan Howard has also incorporated a diabolical wrinkle into Michigan's offense, the transition ball screen:

Good luck stopping that. When Dickinson isn't open on the roll, it's usually because he's drawn enough help to open up a three-pointer.

In potentially fantastic news, Sam Webb mentioned last week on his radio show he believes Smith will be back next season to use the free year of eligibility afforded by the pandemic year. That'd authoritatively answer the biggest question facing the 2021-22 squad, which was going to regard who's running the point. The early-season model of Smith would've been acceptable; version 2.0 is looking great for this season and next.

Smith's development is also a point in favor of doing everything reasonably possible to hold onto assistant coach and former NBA guard Howard Eisley, who's likely to be a candidate for the open Boston College job—BC happens to be his alma mater. Eisley's going to get a shot at a head job before long but I'm hoping Michigan can get another year out of him.

This Also Works On Thursday

Twist my arm.

B1G Tourney Times Announced


artsy BTT photo: check [Campredon]

Given the way the season is going, Friday afternoon's Game 7 is probably where you're gonna want to start taking notes:

The 2021 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament schedule is as follows:
 
Wednesday, March 10 (First Round)
Game 1 (Seed #12 vs. Seed #13) – 6:30 p.m. ET (BTN)
Game 2 (Seed #11 vs. Seed #14) – 25 minutes following Game 1 (BTN)
 
Thursday, March 11 (Second Round)
Game 3 (Seed #8 vs. Seed #9) – 11:30 a.m. ET (BTN)
Game 4 (Seed #5 vs. Game 1 winner) – 25 minutes following Game 3 (BTN)
Game 5 (Seed #7 vs. Seed #10) – 6:30 p.m. ET (BTN)
Game 6 (Seed #6 vs. Game 2 winner) – 25 minutes following Game 5 (BTN)
 
Friday, March 12 (Quarterfinals)
Game 7 (Seed #1 vs. Game 3 winner) – 11:30 a.m. ET (BTN)
Game 8 (Seed #4 vs. Game 4 winner) – 25 minutes following Game 7 (BTN)
Game 9 (Seed #2 vs. Game 5 winner) – 6:30 p.m. ET (BTN)
Game 10 (Seed #3 vs. Game 6 winner) – 25 minutes following Game 9 (BTN)
 
Saturday, March 13 (Semifinals)
Game 11 (Game 7 vs. Game 8 winner) – 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Game 12 (Game 9 vs. Game 10 winner) – 25 minutes following Game 11 (CBS)
 
Sunday, March 14 (Championship)
Game 13 (Game 11 vs. Game 12 winner) – 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Michigan would be in the early games in the strong likelihood they hold onto the one seed. Plan your "lunch break" on Friday accordingly.

No Ayo?


might be in a mask, might not be there at all [Campredon]

Illinois superstar Ayo Dosunmu was on the receiving end of a Flagrant 2 foul* by Mady Sissoko late in the Illini's shocking loss to Michigan State on Tuesday night. Dosunmu stayed in the game despite being in obvious pain and missed most his shots—including three of the four three throws after the Sissoko foul—down the stretch. Those misses are even more understandable given the news coming out today:

"A few games" would knock Dosunmu out of the Michigan game on Tuesday night, which would take a lot of the fun out of the most anticipated conference game of the season. The timeline is vague enough that it seems like there's a chance he'll take the court for that game, though with Illinois all but out of the regular season title race they may err on the side of caution.

*Incredibly, the refs initially didn't call a foul on Sissoko, then upgraded it to the Flagrant 2 and ejection upon review.

Smooth

There's a new highlight video of 2021 five-star signee Caleb Houstan that does a wonderful job of featuring more nitty-gritty plays than the usual "here's all the shots that went in" reel:

His shot is gorgeous and that's always going to be his calling card. The way he relocates to open spots is advanced for a high school player and will be extremely useful in college; playing on a team with the absurd talent of Montverde has done a great job of preparing him to play his role, which is going to involve a lot of off-ball movement.

It's still a highlight reel, of course, but I like what I see in terms of his defensive instincts/positioning, and he's able to combine his length with adequate lateral quickness to cut off drives and challenge shots. Not that this is a bold statement to make about a top-ten recruit, but Houstan should be a major contributor right away.

This Looks Good

This tweet from Shot Quality measures what it purports to measure: the expected points, adjusted for competition, of a team's shots based on the a number of factors that eventually get to the chance of a given shooter making a shot from a particular spot and the chance it gets rebounded for a putback. Other than the Brooks-less blip at Minnesota, the Wolverines have consistently hung around the 90th percentile or better over their last 11 games, and the trend line is moving in the right direction:

They rank Michigan eighth nationally in their adjusted shot quality metric on offense. They're also seventh in the same metric for defense. Seems good!

Comments

1VaBlue1

February 25th, 2021 at 1:56 PM ^

So does this mean that Smith is taking a rightful place as an 'elite' PG for a contending team?  The NCAA Tourney means nothing to a team without an elite PG - because those teams rarely do anything of note, let alone win the whole thing.  If Smith can be legitimately considered an elite PG, then I'll feel better about Michigan's chances than I already do!

Would like to see the B1G make an example of MSU for bringing that type of play against another team.  Izzo sent out his goon to intentionally take aim at an opponents best players.  And it may well effect the B1G's tournament payout by impacting Illinois' seed line.

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 127087

Blue Vet

February 25th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^

One of my feeds showed an article in the New Yorker about "Dickinson."

Considering the magazine, I'm assuming they mean the poet Emily but, who knows, maybe they're broadening their editorial scope to include that other wonder of the broader culture, Hunter.

Joined: 05/08/2012

MGoPoints: 71140

BlueinKyiv

February 25th, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^

Fantastic article on Smith and a testament to his ability to adapt to this team.  

That said, if we leave the always useful Torvik tools for a minute and look at an old fashioned game stats, he also is taking his assists versus turnovers to new heights: 

Last  five games: 3.3 Assists / turnover)

Previous 9 games: 2.25 Assists / turnover

I remember when I pointed out on this board and others that the "turnover problem" for Smith was being exaggerated (not the least by the TORate stat using shot attempts in the denominator for a guy that rarely shot). His shot attempts rise by 1/3 and guess what the TORate starts to head the other direction.  

Moreover, I committed the further sin of suggesting that Simpson's turnovers per game were no worse than Zavier Simpson (if we dropped Torvik's TO per shot attempt stat and looked at the raw TO stats.  Several responded, Smith's stats will only worsen when the competition gets more difficult and he doesn't do all that Zavier was trying to do on the court, etc......., but we can see that Smith  is going well in to Zavier territory (less than 1.2 turnovers per game over the last 5) while outpacing him behind the arc and at the free throw line (nice to have a 79% free throw shooter getting the rock with his 90% shooting backcourt mate at the end of games).  

 

Joined: 04/05/2017

MGoPoints: 4226

AC1997

February 25th, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^

I'm not going to pretend to know how all of the advanced metrics are calculated (per shot, per possession, usage, etc.).  I do think we can get closer to rating Smith on the Simpson scale now that he's playing almost as many minutes.  He still uses his time on the court differently and thus it is still somewhat apples-and-oranges....but definitely happy to have the guy on the team.

Two other quick thoughts:

1 - I suspect Smith's raw assist numbers have gone down a little since Dickinson's stats have come down.  There were at least a couple of dump-downs per game that were being converted earlier that are now either not going in or getting passed back out of the post.

2 - I'll never forget feeling like the only person here defending Smith and calling him the key to the season while Brian talked about him as a 12mpg back-up while plugging Eli into 30mpg at PG.  I'm so glad I was right on this one as Smith is such a key to the team.

Joined: 09/19/2008

MGoPoints: 13809

Basketballschoolnow

February 25th, 2021 at 6:27 PM ^

Simpson was a great passer, a very good defender, and a tenacious competitor.

Smith, who has been a pleasant surprise on defense, has those things too, but his outside shooting really opens up the offense, giving it a beautiful flow, and making it nearly impossible for the opponent to defend.  If you are going to have one guy on the floor who doesn't shoot 3s, it is far better that that guy be the 7 foot post-up monster than the point guard.  Also, with Mike you don't have to sweat the foul shots, especially at the end of the game.

Joined: 10/14/2019

MGoPoints: 890

AC1997

February 25th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^

The refs in the MSU vs ILL game were pretty bad - and while it was both ways it seemed to skew in MSU's favor pretty significantly.  The play were Ayo got hurt should be used to dock the pay of that official.  He was 3 feet away, staring right at it.  Ayo goes down clutching his face and the ref looks at him and calmly signals "out of bounds."  Horrible officiating.  When you don't even call a foul and replay converts it to a Flagrant 2 then you might need to be kicked out of the B10 rotation.  

I'm pretty sure it was the same ref that moments earlier had watched a ball hit an MSU player and deflect right into this ref out of bounds....and then awarded the ball to MSU.  

Joined: 09/19/2008

MGoPoints: 13809