28 Tickets To Team 139: Pre-Bowl Edition Comment Count

Brian

What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + SAM + FLEX TE  + SLOT.

PREVIOUSLY: last year's final version.

Note that due to Michigan's frequent deployment of a 3-3-5 with a true SAM linebacker I've added that slot to this year's list. There are now 28 tickets. Actually there are 29 because there are two RBs.

PACK YOUR BAGS

30544914742_ed4537549d_z_thumb111. SDE Rashan Gary, Jr. [Last time: 3]

Saw his sacks pirated away all year and endured a painful shoulder injury that briefly knocked him out of a few games; still first team All Big Ten per the coaches at a loaded spot after an 11 TFL, 5 sack season. Goal in what's presumably his final year is to go from All Big Ten to All American. That's more likely than not.

635894839030253287-DFPawards-121315-[2]2. CB Lavert Hill, Jr. [Last time: 18]

Jourdan Lewis 2.0 was the absurd expectation. And it was more or less met. Hill had a clear PT edge over the other members of Michigan's excellent CB troika, and was so good that he was barely challenged during the second half of the season. Flashed excellent run support along the way; total package and early entry candidate.

Screen-Shot-2016-02-03-at-10.00.33-A[2]3. ILB Devin Bush, Jr. [Last time: 15]

The platonic ideal of a Don Brown linebacker. Roaring start to the season petered out into solid play as opposing offenses started focusing more time and resources on blocking him; still racked up 9.5 TFLs and 5 sacks and was 1st team ABT. Occasional busts expected out of a true sophomore and should drop out of his game as he takes up the mantle of upperclass leader. Drawing skills questionable.

hudson_thumb14. VIPER(!!!) Khaleke Hudson, Jr. [Last time: 13]

Set program and B10 record for TFLs in a game because Minnesota decided to be very Nice to him. Also had 8 non-Gopher TFLs and was a frequent, excellent blitzer. Versatile and explosive; replaced Peppers on defense with almost no hiccup. Busted coverage vs OSU was a bummer. Again, true sophomore.

14_48761125. CB David Long, So.* [Last time: 23]

Rotated more than Hill but played just as well. Put Simmie Cobbs on a milk carton. Program ambassador type. Like Hill, barely challenged over the second half of the season as opponents gave up on their outside WRs. Should improve faster than Watson and emerge into ABT or AA type.

30300197284_6b18c06a0b_z_thumb56. WDE Chase Winovich, Sr.* [Last time: 8]

Translated productive 2016 cameos with nearly no efficiency loss, leading team with 17.5 TFLs and 8 sacks. Ironman who played almost every snap with a nonstop motor. Enjoyed Eric's hat. Some run issues with lane integrity and holding up against power at his face. Has NFL decision to make; quick google doesn't show him as a first rounder, so probably back.

30350541320_53f3c6e05f_z_thumb197. OG Ben Bredeson, Jr. [Last time: 5]

Alarming pass protection feels a lot more understandable if Bredeson is a redshirt freshman, but that was not possible given the dearth of OL Harbaugh inherited. Became a solid cog in the run game; could get a look at tackle but I think we saw why he was never a candidate on the outside over the course of the year. Big leap still possible.

31165120764_f26408fc10_z8. SS Josh Metellus, Jr. [Last time: 10]

Don't let that dropped INT and a couple of drag routes obscure what was otherwise an excellent end to the season for Metellus. Graded out consistently well in UFR. Versatile slot defender and safety was a highly reliable tackler and virtually never showed up on your screen for bad reasons. There are far far worse fates for a new starting S. Don't make me remind you of AMSHG.

v38mru82pxomj6mxzrvx_thumb109. FS Tyree Kinnel, Sr. [Last time: 7]

Spate of missed tackles as Kinnel got over-aggressive on screens see him slot just below Metellus; most of his other misfortune was getting freshman Jourdan Lewis'd on slot fades and the occasional Hornibrook heat-seeking missile. Busts were rare; key component of a secondary that exceeded all reasonable expectations. Man coverage on slots could use some work.

CrxVLFyXEAQQBc9_thumb1010. OG Mike Onwenu, Jr. [Last time: 14]

Got bumped for Cesar Ruiz late in the year but was reportedly ill even after he'd recovered from his injury; if full go would have played. When playing was the exact kind of absurd masher everyone wanted him to be. Early pass protection issues more about stunt communication than a technique deficit; should emerge into bonafide ABT player.

33245237283_6934761f01_z11. OC Cesar Ruiz, So. [Last time: NR]

Was already a holy lock to be the starting center in 2018, and then he started at RG for the back half of the season. There was little dropoff from Onwenu until Wisconsin and TJ Edwards came to town; even so Ruiz played out of his mind for a true freshman. He's a natural C and ain't nobody coming for his job.

36586388714_757de77321_z12. TE Sean McKeon, So.* [Last time: NR]

M's leading receiver... with 29 catches. Couple that with an in-season blocking turnaround as he went from Very Bad to Good-ish, and you've got a pending four year-starter unless the NFL intervenes. Athletic, good hands—the OSU drop was uncharacteristic and I have the charts to prove it—and mean enough on the ground.

37017822590_aaac6ab7b0_z (1)13. FLEX Zach Gentry, Jr.* [Last time: NR]

Loping downfield menace would have had a massive breakout season in functioning pass offense; in Michigan's he got 15 catches. Led the team in YPC with a Gesicki-esque 18.4, and was not a pretty pretty princess when asked to block. More or less Post Apocalyptic Jake Butt. Hopefully can become Regular Jake Butt in 2018.

36428699434_67f64b4670_z14. SLOT Grant Perry, Sr. [Last time: NR]

Michigan's leading receiver by yardage last year, Perry looked the part of a polished just-gets-open chain-mover. He looked that part far too rarely for the usual reasons. As a senior his deployment will be similar, but hopefully he'll be one of a large number of weapons instead of the one guy you need to look for on third and seven. A version of Perry in a functional passing game is really efficient.

38189078341_28cfa20806_z15a. RB Karan Higdon, Sr. [Last time: NR]

Felt wrong to leave either main RB out so let's break out some lower case letters. Higdon is 71 bowl yards away from being Michigan's first 1,000 yard RB since Fitz Toussaint. He demonstrated not only an ability to power through tackles but to run away from a bunch of them. A few better cuts and he's the total package. Oh... and a lot better pass blocking.

CryqvadUkAA3Tz5_thumb515b. RB Chris Evans, Jr. [Last time: 16]

Disappointing first half mostly about terrible blocking at inopportune times; came on late; displayed open-field chops against OSU. A jet with ankle-breaking ability. Running through a few arm tackles. Got up to 5.3 YPC even with terrible start. Should have had 40 catches this year. Scouts flag football at 7 AM. Should be allowed to wear a helmet that has his hair on it.

36639883555_c850aaef2a_z16. FB Ben Mason, So. [Last time: NR]

Sometimes there's a man. Mason is that man. He's the only fullback on the roster who anyone can name, for one. For two, Harbaugh gushed about him through spring and fall as a hitter. For three, Michigan followed that up with meaningful in-season playing time, and he did well with it. For four, just look at that fullback-ass photo at left. Fullback? Fullback.

30030155204_aeed8a5eef_z_thumb1217. SAM Noah Furbush, Sr.* [Last time: 25]

Flies up as SAM becomes a ticket. Got a ton of time as Devin Bush's personal snowplow early; restricted to passing downs later in the season. Functioned mostly as a bonus DL in a 3-3-5; unless he is more versatile it looks like Michigan is going to run actual DLs instead of bonus ones.

UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS

34056744135_046024a637_z (1)18. QB Brandon Peters, So.* [Last time: NR]

There will be a QB competition; Peters has a year, 64 attempts at 7.6 YPA, a 4:0 TD-INT ratio, and the upcoming bowl game over Dylan McCaffrey, his only realistic competition after Speight's exit. If Peters doesn't win the competition it will be a major surprise. Not bad for a Huge Recruiting Mistake.

33220291904_91e3759ddd_z19. WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, So. [Last time: 24]

Emerged as Michigan's main—often only—receiver by midseason, whereupon he was zestily overthrown on wide open post routes and humped to death by hoodie-wearing jabronis in full view of the referees. Did get a bomb against Wisconsin, and had two huge punt returns. Breakout could be coming, pending pass pro.

38456603786_f91ec3a78d_z (1)20. 3T Aubrey Solomon, So. [Last time: NR]

M's late preference for a 4-man-front seemed directly tied to the development of Solomon, a five-star who started flashing that talent late in the year. Removal against OSU because of a ding, not his play; Martin/Glasgow/Hurst play-alike who could/should bust out big time in full time starters role.

38196366241_195c826cee_z21. NICKEL Brandon Watson, Sr.* [Last time: NR]

Probably the season's most pleasant surprise, Watson went from firm-handshake fodder to a guy Michigan had to play even though David Long was taking off. Also gave Simmie Cobbs the business. Athletic upside not as high as the other guys but he's making it work as a press corner. Thomas lurks.

nordin-810x450_thumb522. K Quinn Nordin, So.* [Last time: 20]

Torrid start cooled off; still hit 15 of 20 attempts on the year. Three missed XPs are... uh. Not great. S&P+ has him an almost entirely average kicker. This is not the worst, but it is quite a comedown from GREATEST KICKER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY, which is what Nordin seemed like for half the season. Let's get back to that plz.

FAIRLY SAFE BET

Baq2X62CYAIVIab_thumb523. NT Bryan Mone, Sr.* [Last time: 14]

Conditioning issues were rumored to cost him his starting job; useful piece on short yardage but a zero as a rusher. That could see him relegated to a similar role in 2018 if one of the young guys comes on. Still more likely that Mone trims down in a contract year and takes his swing at the NFL.

37266565725_cd8455398e_z24. WR Tarik Black, Fr.* [Last time: NR]

Michigan's #1 receiver until injury hewed him down; flashed his talent early; with Crawford's continued struggles it's likely that Black walks right back into the starting lineup once he's healthy. Massive, thudding downfield guy with great body control and a year of experience sounds like a nice safety blanket for Peters.

CvKekmXWIAAKkLp_thumb2725. P Brad Robbins, So. [Last time: 26]

This is still a picture of Jordan Glasgow in a bear shirt, and will probably always be a picture of Glasgow in a bear shirt. The punter in question, Robbins, was middling at best as a freshman and could come in for some competition from walk-ons, but the main walk-on shanked three early and got yanked so not so much.

IN A BATTLE

Lq2JiI0826. ILB Josh Ross, So. [Last time: NR]

Mike McCray's vacancy is wide open and could go to any of the second-year players, or Devin Gil, or Josh Uche, or even a relocated Noah Furbush. Ross gets the nod here because he's got recruiting rankings on the veterans and playing time on his classmates. This is a shot in the dark, but a relatively friendly one. The last two spots... not so much.

21235224-standard27. LT Grant Newsome, Jr.* [Last time: NR]

Please baby Jesus, all I want for Christmas this year is a hale and hearty Grant Newsome. And also next year. And I suppose it would be nice if he remained healthy after his playing career at Michigan was over as well.

636215455344246734-IMG-112228. RT James Hudson, Fr.* [Last time: NR]

Here's a near-random guess at which dude will emerge from the seething pile. All three of the returning candidates had major issues, so the door is wide open for a freshman. Hudson moved to tackle and is picking up Webb hype while nobody else has been mentioned, so here he is. Other options: Spanellis, Filiaga, Stueber, Honigford, Runyan, JBB, and Ulizio.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

NOT STARTERS BUT CONTRIBUTING

RB Kareem Walker—flashed promise late, needs to follow his blocking better.

WR Kekoa Crawford—scuffled badly this year, but will rotate in.
WR Nico Collins—redshirt yanked rather pointlessly late this year.
WR Eddie McDoom—Breastonian threat could have been better utilized.

TE Ty Wheatley—injury may have got him Wally Pipped but there's a role for a masher.
TE Nick Eubanks—knocked out for year by brutal targeting.
TE Ian Bunting—Ol' Skillet Hands may have fifth year on the line in spring.

T Jon Runyan Jr.—RT for much of second half against OSU.
T Juwann Bushell-Beatty—road grader who can't pass block.
G Stephen Spanellis—productive masher as 6th OL. Probably gets a look at T.

SDE Carlo Kemp—significant PT a year ago; still developing.
NT Michael Dwumfour—"big Mo Hurst" is what they're saying. Please be right.
3T Lawrence Marshall—decent backup DT
WDE Kwity Paye—flashed some talent as a freshman.

SAM Josh Uche—effective rush specialist late in the year.

CB Ambry Thomas—KO returner and super talented dude could take aim at Watson's snaps.

PUSHING FROM BEHIND

QB Dylan McCaffrey—oblig redshirt year in rear view.

RB O'Maury Samuels—probably needs an injury before he can see real time.

WR Oliver Martin—weird that he was the guy who redshirted.
WR Nate Schoenle—got a few targets.

G Andrew Vastardis—walk-on is in conversation.
T Nolan Ulizio—Pretty terrible but did get a half season of starts.
T Andrew Stueber—potential LT if Newsome can't go.
T Chuck Filiaga—enormous man may be G but M has to see if he's a tackle.
T Joel Honigford—Another LT candidate if he works out.

3T Donovan Jeter—ND decommit w/ salty comments afterwards will be fan favorite
WDE Luiji Vilain—injury enforced redshirt gave Paye the early edge.

MLB Drew Singleton—will battle Gil/Ross.
SAM Jordan Anthony—maybe more of a viper/Bush backup?

CB Benjamin St Juste—oh Canada.

S Jordan Glasgow—behind Woods; special teams stalwart.
S Jaylen Kelly-Powell—got some PT late, didn't go well.
S J'Marick Woods—Ol' Woods brings the wood.
S Brad Hawkins—mostly active on special teams.

WAITING THEIR TURN

RB Kurt Taylor—moves up if he can pass block.

G JaRaymond Hall—only incoming OL listed at under 300.

NT Phil Paea—two-way DL/OL will probably land on O, eventually.
SDE Ron Johnson—might be late early for him as Paye went right by on the weakside.
3T Deron Irving-Bey—at least another year before he's ready.
WDE Reuben Jones—late early.

Comments

tjking82

November 30th, 2017 at 6:20 PM ^

Agreed, but if Winovich comes back, we get better at both DEs.  So equally nasty, just in a different way...less push up front, more pressure on the edge.  Besides, Don Brown will always send blitzes up the middle anyway.

WoodleyIsBeast

November 30th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^

I see pre-empted excuses being made for Metellus.....he had more bad plays this year than anyone in the secondary combined it seemed like.  Not just the dropped INT, but poor angles that led to big plays, penalties, etc....Really feel like Woods would be worth a look there.

FatGuyTouchdown

November 30th, 2017 at 5:31 PM ^

we want Kinnel out there. The fact that he looks average is due to his ability to make plays without fucking up a ton. He's a boring safety, which is ideal. Obviously you'd rather have an All-World safety like Malik Hooker that can make plays all over and is unavoidable, but seeing how we're not Louisville, it's going to be hard to get Hookers. 

FatGuyTouchdown

December 1st, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^

he's not an all american safety, but if you need your free safety to make a bunch of tackles, something is wrong with the front 7. If he were an amazing run support guy he'd be play strong or viper. He doesn't give up big plays over the top and does a pretty good job of coming down on receivers. Boring.

tjking82

November 30th, 2017 at 6:23 PM ^

I agree.  Every time I see Metellus on the screen, he is making a big mistake.  I'm sure it's just perception, but I feel like you can trace half of the big plays on us this season to a mistake by Metellus.  He'd better be the best off-screen player on the team to somehow make up for all the mistakes I've seen him make on my TV.

ST3

November 30th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^

I agree with Brian (I know, big surprise there.) Metellus played well the second time I watched the OSU game. His two blown plays really stand out because they had a huge impact on the game, but other than those two plays, he was solid. The dropped INT could have been caused by obstructed view from the receiver. I don't know, the camera angle wasn't great. He got beat on one crossing pattern, but come on, that play works almost all the time. That's why you see every team run some version of that.

funkywolve

November 30th, 2017 at 6:29 PM ^

that got juked out of their jock by Weber at line of scrimmage on OSU's final TD?  Instead of maintaining outside leverage the safety bit hard to the inside on Weber's fake and Weber ran by him to the outside for a TD.

Yessir

November 30th, 2017 at 2:56 PM ^

Looking forward to our bowl game.  Want to see some of the youngsters play.  

Wouldn't bother me if Coach gives Hurst and Cole type 2nd half off.  Lets see where we're at for next year. Won't happen, but it wouldn't bother me.  

edit: on second though, playing a new LT(blind side) of a QB returning from concussion protocol, not so smart. Thats why I do what I do and coach coaches. 

In reply to by ijohnb

Yessir

November 30th, 2017 at 3:32 PM ^

I wouldn't blame him either. Not one bit. 

Cole might want to see if he can make himself some money though. I think G Glasgow made himself some dough at the Senior Bowl, iirc, but Cole might want to get some time in at the Outback. 

In reply to by ijohnb

Fezzik

November 30th, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^

I'd blame him. This is a team sport and he is a leader on this team. Sitting out is putting himself above the team, the team, the team.

Whole Milk

November 30th, 2017 at 4:39 PM ^

That did it for me too. I was iffy on the whole thing with fournette and mccaffrey. Even Smith's injury at ND didn't sway my opinion too much since he still went early second. Butt was what did it. I get it if you want to play for your team and be with them to the end, but the damage that can happen leads me to the opinion that you cannot blame a player for not wanting to take that risk. 

Fezzik

November 30th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^

Meaningless? Tell that to the players and coaches. Every practice, every game has the potential for injury. That's football. Jake actually made more money by getting drafted late anyways thanks to his wise policy he invested in. Unless a player is already injured, I will always be disappointed in him for quiting in his team for 100% personal reasons. That's a lack of leadership.

Gulogulo37

December 1st, 2017 at 4:59 AM ^

Uh, I'm pretty sure Jake Butt said he didn't regret playing in the bowl and would have done it again if given a second chance.

Also, irrelevant to this conversation, but while I'm posting, is Higdon going to be the only major senior contributing on offense next year? Bunting may be gone. JBB may start but certainly won't be irreplaceable the year after. We'll be much better next year, and that could definitely mean a conference championship and/or playoff spot, but this offense should be peak unbelievably good in 2019.

smwilliams

November 30th, 2017 at 3:00 PM ^

In the years you've been doing the 28 Tickets thing, this version has to have the most "Pack Your Bags" and the least "In A Battle" candidates, right? And even the non-ticket categories have guys who've contributed in big games and/or got some legitimate playing time.

Ultimately, it seems like next year will come down to these questions:

1. Can Michigan find two starting tackles out of, what, like 10 dudes?

2. Is the drop off from McCray to Gil/Singleton/Ross not significant enough to really do any damage to the D? 

3. Is Peters good or merely manageable? 

4. Do DPJ and Black take the FR-to-SO leap?

I'm confident in #2 and #4, pretty confident in Peters being good and not Wilton Speight 2.0 (which still wouldn't be a disaster), but #1 looms over this team like a freaking guillotine in 18th century France. 

EDIT TO ADD:

Here was the breakdown for this 1 year ago:

PACK YOUR BAGS: Hurst, Cole (at C), Gary, McCray, Perry, Bredeson (6/6)

SOMETHING STRANGE: Speight, Kinnel, Winovich, Mone, Bush, Nordin (5.5?/6 because of Mone)

SAFE BET: Jeremy Clark (BOOO NCAA), Onwenu, Bunting, Evans, Crawford, Hudson, Asiasi, Hill (5/8 - Clark is not Brian's fault, Bunting faded and Asiasi transferred)

BATTLE: Furbush, Drake Harris, Hill, Watson, Will Hart, Isaiah Wilson, Grant Newsome (3/7)

So, basically, it's pretty obvious who's going to be contributing on this team next year outside of unexpected departures (or Winovich declaring), any big time freshmen (Solomon and DPJ weren't on this list), and that once again we have no idea who the starting tackles are going to be. 

Fezzik

November 30th, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^

Are you referring to Florida/Cincy/AF Speight? Even when Speight peaked last year with the BEST defense, a borderline elite special teams, 2 NFL wide outs, and the best TE in college he could only win 10 games. And you're telling me a healthy Speight leads us to 11 wins this year?

CalifExile

December 1st, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^

I understand him to be referring to a Speight who shows the improvement we expected from last year. That Speight could certainly win 11.

But even if he is just referring to a healthy Speight playing at the level he reached last year 11 wins are possible. We would surely have won the MSU and OSU games. Probably Wisconsin and maybe PSU. Unfortunately, Speight regressed this year instead of showing the expected progression. Then he was injured before he could turn it around.

stephenrjking

November 30th, 2017 at 6:45 PM ^

Evans was the first RB out there when they took the field against Florida, and held the nominal role for a little while until Isaac, and then Higdon wrested it away. Higdon began to emerge in the MSU game and of course blew up against Indiana.

I like 'em both. I think Higdon has been running dinged the last couple of weeks, I'm hopeful that he's due for a big game in the bowl. 

Bambi

November 30th, 2017 at 3:00 PM ^

I'm already on the hype train for next year. All the concerning areas from this past year have reasonable explanations for why they struggled (youth, injuries, new offense, etc.) and have experienced/highly talented (in almost every case both) guys waiting to fix the problem. Except tackle. Tackle is a huge question mark right now. If we can find 2 average B1G tackles, this team has no excuse not to win the B1G. If they don't, 8-4/9-3 seems likely again.

Yessir

November 30th, 2017 at 3:52 PM ^

Agree on hype for next year.  Can't wait. 

We don't have clear starters at T next year(right now), but we have some good young players that will compete hard and I expect we'll be just fine there.

Oh how great the offseason optimism can be. 

michgoblue

November 30th, 2017 at 3:08 PM ^

This year was frustrating, but to anyone paying attention, the strugles that we had (aside from QB) should have been largely expected.  We were insanely young at so many spots.  Quite frankly, it could have been a hell of a lot worse (see FSU, Florida, etc.).

Looking at this post, I am really optimistic about next season.  Here's my reasoning:

The defense returns pretty much everyone other than Mo Hurst and McCray.  Mo is a HUGE loss, but we have a ton of guys who got experience this year who will step in.  In every other position across the ENTIRE DEFENSE, we should improve, because almost every position sees the same player return with another year of experience and S&C.  With a defense made up largely of underclassmen, I expect that every one of these players will be a better version of their 2017 self next year.

Now to the offense.  The receivers were a disaster this year.  Some of that is on the OL and much on the QB, but there is a reason that this blog has a "freshman receivers" tag.  There are rarely good, often because they don't have the complexities of the offense and route tree down.  The good news is that all of our WRs are back and a year older / more experienced.  I expect the WR position to improve significantly.  Same goes for the TE position (same players, a year older, etc.) and the RB position.  

Now let's turn to the areas of concern:

for QB, while Wilton struggled, we were able to win when he was playing.  Same goes for Peters (he missed half of the Wisco game, but when he was in, he was moving the ball and we scored some points).  All of our losses came when JOK played significant time.  JOK is gone and whomever is the starter next year CANNOT POSSIBLY be more of a liability than non-Purdue JOK was.  Even if Peters comes back and plays exactly as he did this year, it is STILL an improvement from the JOK portion of this season.  

Finally, the OL will have a very solid interior with Ruiz, Onweno and Bredenson.  All will be better than this past season because of , again, age and experience.  As for the tackles, of the 10 possibilities that we have, I expect that we will fiend 2-3 who are decent enough not to be a liability.  I know that Cole was a 4-year starter and very good center, but at LT he was often overmatched.  Losing a senior starter sucks, but in this case, I am not sure that whomever replaces him will be a downgrade.

tl;dr:  We return almost everyone and are going to be really good.