​Just like last season, Michigan is once again heading to the Frozen Four. Perhaps in this case it will be the Fervent Four as temperatures are supposed to be SLIGHTLY WARMER than the last few endings to the college hockey season. Should I even bring a coat? Regardless, the Wolverines have achieved back to back appearances -their record maintaining 27th overall- for the first time since the days of Jed Ortmeyer, Eric Nystrom, David Moss, and Milan Gajic. Those were the days when making the Frozen Four was BOR-ING. Between the springs of 1992 and 2003, the Maize and Blue made the national semifinals NINE times in twelve tournaments. That's absurd...or maybe it wasn't. Maybe that's just what elite programs did.

Only twice, though, in those couple of handfuls of Final Weekends did Michigan hang the banner. In fact, the only times they won a single game were the times they won two: '96 and '98, obviously. (That actually rings true to this day, sans 2011). Once again, however, Michigan is starting to make going to the Frozen Four a consistent thing. In three of the last five tournaments, Michigan has won a Regional and progressed to the final stage. Not too bad. The thing is...was it even expected?

Not really. I mean...sure, okay, with Fantilli and Luke Hughes on the team, they could carry the team there theoretically. That's not overly crazy. But how many stars did Michigan lose after that crushing night in the Boston mist? I count five. Plus, their senior Mighty Mite captain. And two other really good players. AND several more Blue Collar Glue Dudes (who all seemed to score in the Tournament)! It's not like Michigan went portal shopping and snagged a ton of Want-To guys who were looking to Level Up. They brought in eleven freshmen. And all but two of the ones who consistently played were in their drafted year...or younger! Now, a handful of those guys are definite future NHL Dudes, but still! This team is different. 

 

[David Wilcomes]

Some Background

Heading into the 07-08 season, no one knew what to expect. Gone were Hero TJ Hensick, Superman Jack Johnson, and the underrated Andrew Cogliano. Sure, Porter and Kolarik were back (and 1st rounders Mark Mitera and Chris Summers), but was that enough? How good were the drafted freshmen? Would Billy Sauer be able to finally put it together? Turns out all of the answers to those questions were YES (well, except the last one in Denver). That team did have front-liners that allowed the soon-to-be-awesome freshmen time and space to explode. Max Patch was a sight to behold. Aaron Palushaj, Carl Hagelin, Matt Rust, and Louie Caporusso all had moments and found roles endearing themselves to the Yost faithful. Only one frustrating first period forced that crew to use up everything just to get back on even footing...before the inevitable overtime doom. That was still the most fun team I watched in my 20 seasons watching the program.

In 10-11, just making the NCAA tournament was a goal as late as the beginning of February. That was not how it was supposed to go, though. This was the culmination year of that wonder-class of the the previous Frozen Four season of 2008. Hagelin (Bjork!), Rust, Caporusso, Langlais, Winnett, SCOOTER, and Bryan Hogan were all in their final season and hoped to return to where they started. This team had leaders, depth, defense, and experienced netminding in both Hogan and Shawn Hunwick. Still, it took a great 9-1 run down the stretch just to get to a somewhat underwhelming #2 seed. After an emotional-cleansing OT win against then conference opponent (haha oh man!) Nebraska-Omaha and a Hold-On-To-Your-Butts down the stretch win over double upset-minded Colorado College, the seniors did get to add a year to the Frozen Four banner. Unfortunately again, giving every last ounce of energy and determination to gain a monumental upset win over juggernaut North Dakota cost them dearly on Saturday night in St. Paul.

[Patrick Barron]

Even in 17-18, while the Wolverines had to rescue a first half of a season to be forgotten, that team had a perfect combination of experience leader/scorers to head their top line in Dancs, Marody, and Calderone with Sam Piazza, Joe Cecconi, and Nick Boka on the backend. First round picks Quinn Hughes and Josh Norris grew up throughout that season to show what they would eventually become in the NHL. That wasn't a great team, but they gelled at the right time and got a nice couple months of desirable goaltending (again, until the end) from Hayden Lavigne. Once again, it was Notre Dame that came calling and added to the Haunts of St Paul.

My point? Since the boring Frozen Four days, Michigan's return trips have all been on the backs of experienced, older players. Yes there were young bucks ready to take over the scene, but there were plenty of grizzled dudes who carried the water for stretches of time. Not this year, though. Not on this team. I'm certainly not taking anything away from the returning seniors -Nolan Moyle, Jay Keranen, Keaton Pehrson, Nick Granowicz, and Eric Ciccolini, but if you add all of their points together (44), you get fewer than both Luke Hughes (47) and Adam Fantilli (64). Sophomore Mackie Samoskevich has 43. Even 86 game veteran Erik Portillo arguably had his wobbliest season in net (although his last 4-8 games were some of his best).

I won't even go into last summer's program/coaching debacle. They also had most of a coaching and support staff that was either learning on the job or learning each other's names. This was a super young team that was expected to be good, but probably a year away from being dominant. While they did slog through the first half of the season or so, it was clear by the end of January, kids were growing up. Coaches and players both were figuring it all out. They finally got healthy, built a little chemistry, and started owning folks. Now, this team that was supposed to be a year away...just might be three days and nights away. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Game breakdowns]

 

[Patrick Barron]

The Four in Tampa

(1) Michigan, (1) Quinnipiac, (2) Boston University, (1) Minnesota: Despite what the String-Pullers try to engineer control, the Try-Hards and Over-Agers are mostly gone. Who is left is the actual college hockey elite. Okay, maybe Denver, but they hung their banner last year (and six years ago, so whatever). For the second year in a row, we have CHALK (not you, Kansas). This is good for the sport. Sure, everyone loves to hate three of these four teams, but no one wants to watch Air Force play Bemidji State. Minnesota/BU? Um, yes please! Q-Pac looking for revenge against Michigan? Uh-huh! People are going to watch. Tickets are already getting expensive. College hockey has already won.

• Michigan is...gulp...the best/hottest team in the country (at least right now)? Am I allowed to type that? I don't know how I feel about this! They just went into Minneapolis and ripped a banner away from the Gophers. They overwhelmed and outlasted their last two opponents (one in a legit road game, down late in the third period...despite being the better team). Yes, they split at Yost with Boston U way back when Michigan Football was only dreaming about Nov 26th, but the Terriers also probably should have lost their last two Hockey East tournament games to two fringe/non tournament teams. I guess we should talk about...
• Quinnipiac. These dudes just don't lose. Except those couple of times to...uh...Colgate? WUT? How did...it doesn't matter. While the Pollsters do play in the ECAC, they still only lost four games. That is not many. They've gone 6-3 against tournament teams (with two losses to Colgate). They also have a number of point-getters and generally dominate their (albeit poorer) competition. They definitely have a claim for hottest team in the country, but Michigan has better quality of wins.
• Boston University is the heir-apparent to the Duluth Sorcerer/Wizard Magic Hats! And they're also loaded with talent and REALLY good. Man, not bad to have all of that. While they did lose 4th rounder Case McCarthy to an injury, they still have the best defenseman in college hockey? Lane Hutson is outscoring even Luke Hughes! The Terriers also bark with a bunch of experienced depth scoring to go with their NHL draftees. Find their weakness...maybe Drew Commesso in net? If so, that's not a terrible weakness. He's been solid at worst. 
• Minnesota is BU's opponent, a team Michigan has seen five times. Double-jacked, Triple-stacked. Buncha experienced, drafted defensemen? Yep. Top line in college hockey? Check. A couple of depth scores? Yes, sir. They also have basically run over everyone they've played this season...except? You got it...Michigan. Aside from the Maize and Blue, though? Look out. They were 19-4-1 in maybe the best conference in college hockey in quite some time. They question is...do you trust Justen Close in a single elimination, elite level weekend? Hmmmmm...maybe the better question is Can Minnesota Score Enough So That It Won't Matter? 

 

[David Wilcomes]

(1) Michigan vs (1) Quinnipiac

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Quinnipiac	2	23%	86%	2	6	1.46	.932	4-1	??%
Michigan	17	24%	77%	13 (11+2)	8	2.97	.909	5-0	??%

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Quinnipiac (because David is trying to steal parts from the full preview on Thursday):

1. Take Control of the Style. Michigan did exactly this in Allentown, last season. They scored on their first shift of the game, added another late in the first period, and doubled their two goal lead in the second period with a couple of special teams tallies. The game was done and dusted early in the second period...until it wasn't. The Q-Cats have a solid goalie, well-structured defense, and play fundamentally sound hockey. While they do score some goals (see Colin Graf's 20-36-56 season...in addition to six more double digit scorers), they will not want a FIREWAGON game with Michigan. If the Wolverines first period or two is similar to that of their games against Colgate (with finishing) and Penn State (same chances without finishing) or even last year's Q-Pac game, the Wolverines poll percentages of playing on Saturday will be rather favorable.

2. Don't Stop (Make It Pop!). For about ten minutes of last year's third period, the Wolverines played like they were already glancing toward their matchup with Denver (or maybe that was me searching for flights to Boston...whoops). A couple bobbles and an uh-oh later, it was a 4-3 game. Michigan has had intermittent issues all year of racing to leads, then failing to close games. They've mostly fixed those in the last month or so. It feels like this team is dialed in and has mentally matured a ton since the end of that Wisconsin series. Go grab an early lead, then skate away.

3. Backend Commitment. Originally I had "Don't Take A Major" because obviously. That just always goes without saying in college hockey these days. But honestly, the bigger key is how Michigan has played in their own zone and in the crease in their last four games. Man, this is hard to write, but if they defend well, backcheck, and get a March-like performance from Erik Portillo, who are you picking to beat them? *cricket noises* Well, I'm waiting. As scary as it sounds, I think the answer is just Michigan...which leads me to my:

Final Thoughts: Alex revealed on last week's HockeyCast that his #hottake was that he feels better about this team than he did last year's. I was like "I'm still waiting for the HAWT part of it." The more I look at the matchups and think through this team, that thought just continues to push forth. This does not mean that Michigan is winning both games (or even just one). They could go 0/1 for their last three Frozen Four appearances. That is the nature of this sport/tournament. There are no guarantees. Yale and Union have more recent Banners than Michigan. But...our job is take overlook the randomness and fluke bounces of this Plink-O-fest and spit the truth. And the truth is...if Michigan hits their ceiling in this game, they'll be playing in their biggest hockey game since that God-forsaken overtime in St Paul 12 years ago. 

Alex's Take: Michigan has not done very well in Frozen Four semifinal games over the past two decades. They've reached this round of the event seven times previously in the 21st century and are 1-6 in semifinals. Quinnipiac has made two previous Frozen Fours and won both times in the semifinal. What does all that mean? I don't know, just tossing some stats out there. My fundamental belief about this game is the team that scores first wins, and more than likely, the better goalie will win. Erik Portillo is coming in hot, Yaniv Perets has been good all season, but Michigan had no problem beating him last year. Quinnipiac's approach to the game completely changes based on score effects and are much more uncomfortable playing from behind. I think the Bobcats are set up to stifle Michigan if they get ahead, but I just love the way this Michigan team is humming along. They are going to play excited and confident and they've got the best player on the ice. Wolverines finally win another semifinal game. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

The Other Semi-Final:

(1) Minnesota  vs (2) Boston University

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Boston University	12	20%	81%	12 (11, no Case McCarthy)	7	2.41	.914	5-0	??%
Minnesota	15	26%	84%	14	5	1.99	.928	4-1	??%

David’s Take: College rivalries are awesome. Watch this. And maybe This. Minnesota and Boston. This is as Old School as it gets. And it will be the first game on Thursday, so we won't be depressed or so high on adrenaline that we can't consume it. BU seemingly has the Spirit World on their side. Minnesota was built for this. They all returned for this. They are 2022 Michigan (with a better coach and worse goaltending). This has the makings of one of the best semi-finals in years. Minnesota is a little better of a team, but End of Game/Overtime Magic can easily trump quality of play. If Minnesota gets a plural goal lead with 3-5 minutes to play in the game, I say they win. If not...I'd hate to bet against the Terrors Terriers in those scenarios. Matthew Knies didn't come back to lose one game short. He and Logan Cooley with Sniper Snuggarud are too much in a high-flying affair. Boston holds serve but cannot get it close enough into the final few minutes. Their hats run out of magic, setting up Minnesota vs Michigan Round 6. Who will end their long title drought? 

Alex’s Take: I love this matchup, two really good teams going at it. Minnesota is in the Michigan mold as a team loaded with high-end NHL prospects, while Boston U is the classic mix of one or two high-end NHL prospects with a deep roster of mid-round picks. That mix has historically been very successful at the Frozen Four, as you could say it was the same roster construction that produced Minnesota-Duluth's two recent titles, as well as when UMass and Denver the last two seasons. It allows you to blend skill and experience and get the best of both worlds and it's why I take the Terriers extremely seriously. I'm pretty sure Minnesota is the better team, but I worry about the pressure of it being The Year for Gopher hockey getting in their heads. They looked tight against Canisius, something they cannot afford to be against Boston U. I don't love either goalie, both Drew Commesso and Justen Close have their holes... I said on the HockeyCast that I was leaning towards BU and I'm sticking with it. Lane Hutson and this Team of Destiny feel for BU prevails over Minnesota's high end talent.

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

OVERALL PREDICTIONS/Rationales

Is It Okay If Michigan Does NOT Win Both Games? I hate this question because they answer always has to be Yes. But it can't be that every year. Some year, one year, the answer has to be No. This probably isn't that year, though. This is Minnesota's year. Just like it was Minnesota State's Michigan's Denver's year last year. However, just because it is your year doesn't mean you win four straight single elimination games in the spring. Maybe that's because there is no such thing as Your Year. It just comes down to "how do you play?" and "do you get the bounces?" on those particular nights. Lol this tournament sucks. That ain't changing anytime soon, though. Again, like last year, Michigan looks like they're good enough and fully capable of putting themselves in a good position against all other teams. Will that be enough? I don't know, but that's about all you can ask.

Who Wins - David: I've done a very bad job of keeping it a secret who I think is the best team in the Frozen Four. The margins are thin, and anyone who wins shouldn't surprise many people. That has been the beauty of the last two Final Weekends in college hockey. Last June, the two best hockey teams played in Tampa for hockey's Ultimate Prize. The better team won. They ended a 21 year title drought. Efff it. On a warm Tampa night in April, the Wolverines end their 25 year journey through the wilderness. 

Who Wins - Alex: I've predicted a Michigan-BU title game, which to me is a clear tossup. All of these games are. Michigan and BU played back in October, which feels like 40 years ago at this point. The Friday game was hard to glean anything from as a goofy penalty-fest marred by back-to-back 5 minute majors on the Terriers. The Sunday game had more semblance of "normal" but it was still so long ago. Both teams have changed a lot but I think Michigan has changed more. BU scored only two 5v5 goals across the two games, which I think bodes decently well for he Wolverines. I also don't feel like goaltending is anything more than a push in this one. Two great teams, but I'll take the one from the better conference. 25 years later, Michigan finally gets national title #10.