Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two, Position Preview: Definitely Guards

The season starts tomorrow, which we've designated as Hoops Day. Expect plenty more preview content, plus coverage of M's season opener against Appalachian State.

This is where the positional designations start to get murky. Under John Beilein, the 2-4 spots were all wing-type players with the rare DJ Wilson exception. Under Juwan Howard, the four is likely going to be more of a true big man more often than not.

That said, Michigan will probably start the season the same power forward as last year: Isaiah Livers, who at 6'7"/230 provides a good deal of versatility, if not much post play, at the position. He'll slide down and play the three quite often, however.

In fact, everyone on this page will probably see at least a scattering of minutes at the three. That should be Adrien Nunez's primary position. Cole Bajema still needs to add bulk but his length could make up for that at shooting guard. When healthy, Franz Wagner should play anything from the two to the four depending on need and matchup. This team will be capable of throwing out a number of different looks, including some mammoth lineups outside of the point guard spot.

Until Wagner returns, it appears Eli Brooks is set to start at the two, backed up by David DeJulius and maybe Bajema, while Nunez has been getting the scrimmage/exhibition starts at the three with Livers playing the four.

Let's take a closer look at an area where the Wolverines must replace some major contributors in Iggy Brazdeikis, Charles Matthews, and Jordan Poole.

#2 Isaiah Livers

​this, but more, and wearing a different number [Campredon]

Year: Junior
Height/Weight: 6'7"/230
Key Counting Stats: 22.6 MPG, 7.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 58/43/78 (2P%/3P%/FT%)
Key Advanced Stats: 15.7% usage, 120.6 ORtg, 11.3 turnover rate, 3.9 OR%, 15.7 DR%, 20.6 FTRate

Yes, that's #2 Isaiah Livers—he took Poole's number now that his buddy is a Golden State Warrior.

While many fans seem to expect Livers to become the team's star, until further notice I suspect he'll be a higher-usage version of what he was last year—an efficient and versatile role player. As the sixth man, his ability to guard multiple positions with great efficacy—89th percentile on defense per Synergy—was a critical component of M's top-five defense; on the other end, he was a lethal shooter and solid finisher operating within the confines of the offense.

Livers should be the team's most versatile defender and a high-volume outside marksman; how much else he provides will depend on his development. I knew Livers didn't create much off the dribble last year; I didn't realize just quite how extreme an off-ball player he was until I logged into Synergy and pulled up last year's numbers. In the table below, you'll see he ran fewer combined pick-and-rolls (as a ballhandler) and isolations than every non-center rotation player and even seldom-used reserve guard David DeJulius.

It'd take a massive leap for Livers to become a true second ballhandling option. He'll undoubtedly take on more such possessions, but I'd expect him to be more in the Matthews/Brazdeikis/Brooks range than where Jordan Poole and especially Zavier Simpson were last year.

[Hit THE JUMP for Livers the off-ball star, plus looks at the other three wings.]

What Livers can definitely do, however, is increase the volume of what he did well last season. Livers ranked in the 94th percentile as a spot-up shooter, 93rd percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man, and 99th percentile working out of off-ball screens. He has a consistent jumper that he can get off over a contesting defender, he can shoot on the move, and he's good at picking his spots. His value in the screen game came almost entirely on pick-and-pop threes; he could find his way to the hoop more often if he diversifies what he does as a screener. His shot chart from last year is gorgeous, but you look at the raw numbers below the percentages and want to see more:

I'd happily take a slight dropoff in shooting efficiency and a few more turnovers—Livers rarely coughed it up—as a tradeoff for a significant uptick in usage. He was aggressive hunting his shot in Friday's exhibition, scoring 20 points while making all three of his two-pointers and 4-of-8 threes; unlike at times last year, there was no hesitation pulling the trigger.

Meanwhile, here's how the opponent's shot chart looked when Livers was the primary defender. I hate that Synergy flips the colors for these but there's nothing I can do about their charts; in this case, red is good for the defender, not the shooter.

Livers: good at defense. He graded out in the 89th percentile overall while standing out defending plays derived from isolations, both ends (screener and roller) of the pick-and-roll, and off-ball screens.

There is a small caveat: Charles Matthews took on the toughest defensive assignment among wing players last year, so both volume and degree of difficulty should increase for Livers on defense this year. That said, he was usually the next option for that role after Matthews, and he displayed the technique and instincts to maintain his lockdown status while drawing tougher matchups.

Livers is going to be good in a bigger role. That role isn't likely going to be like those of previous top returning wings like Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert; in a different way, Livers may be nearly as effective, especially if the right pieces emerge around him.

#21 Franz Wagner

​and now we wait [Campredon]

Year: Freshman
Height/Weight: 6'9"/205
Commitment post: Hallo (July 2019)
Key Stats (Eurocup): 22 games, 9.5 MPG, 2.6 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 14/25 (56%) 2P, 7/20 (35%) 3P, 7/7 FT
Key Stats (German top league): 35 games, 12.4 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 39/61 (64%) 2P, 21/53 (40%) 3P, 20/23 (87%) FT, 18 assists, 14 turnovers, 24 steals, 3 blocks
Key Stats (German B-league): 9 games, 23.5 MPG, 16.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.6 APG, 2.2 TOPG, 2.0 SPG, 30/49 (61%) 2P, 19/49 (39%) 3P, 30/34 (88%) FT

It's disappointing that a broken wrist will keep Wagner out for the next three to five weeks or so, not only because he projects to be an integral part of this team, but simply because I was excited to watch him play. Although he's not as physically developed as last year's top freshman, overager Iggy Brazdeikis, Moe's younger brother has extensive high-level experience with Alba Berlin and should provide a similar style of instant offense—plenty of spot-up threes and using that threat to attack with straight-line drives.

Wagner has a purer outside shot than Brazdeikis. His form is damn near perfect.

Wagner is able to get his shot off quickly mainly due to four factors:

1. He’s extremely quick to set his feet.
2. He doesn’t bring the ball lower than his chest. This shortened dip is one of the things that allows him to get his shot off quick.
3. He has a naturally high release point. Wagner can shoot over defenders closing out on him without jumping too high.
4. He takes a short jump, as he barely needs to gain power from his legs in order for his shot to get to the rim.

His numbers reflected that smooth, consistent stroke; across all competition last season, he made 38% of his three-pointers (from the now-standard FIBA line) and 89% of his free throws. He's a capable shooter off the dribble, something Michigan may really need in end-of-clock situations, and he should be lethal from the outset as a catch-and-shoot threat.

That should open up room for the next part of his game. While not an overwhelming athlete or brilliant ballhandler, he's lanky and skilled at finding old-dude-at-the-Y ways to work his way to the hoop, and he can finish around the rim with both hands in multiple fashions.

Before his injury, I thought he'd lead the team in scoring. I may lean towards Livers now, as he got a lot of looks in the exhibition game, but Wagner should still give him a run.

Defense may be tough for Wagner, who turned 18 in August, but he's used to playing against grown men, which should ease the transition on both ends of the floor. He's got length and a knack for timing steals going for him; he will get pushed around a bit by some of the burlier wings he faces.

When Wagner's wrist heals, he'll probably be worked into the rotation as the sixth man; that appeared to be the plan before his injury, though I'm guessing it'd be one of those sixth-man-in-name-only situations minutes-wise. I'm expecting him to work his way up to at least 30 minutes per game, mostly at the three, by mid-December, and hopefully he'll be rolling by the resumption of conference play in January.

#5 Adrien Nunez

​ignore last year, this is a shooter [Campredon]

Year: Sophomore
Height/Weight: 6'6"/210
Key Counting Stats: 20 games, 40 minutes, 3 points, 5 rebounds, 1/13 FG, 1/13 3P

Nunez appears to be your starting small forward for the time being. We saw very little of him as a freshman, when he hurled up 13 three-pointers in garbage time and missed 12 of them. That runs quite contrary to the reputation Nunez carried in high school—and word out of Michigan practices—that he's an outside marksman. Michigan could really, really use another one of those.

Nunez was very much a John Beilein project: a nondescript three-star to the sites that bothered to rank him after he took a prep year when no Division I offers initially came in. His shooting eventually turned enough heads to get him a Michigan offer among a handful of others. When UMHoops broke down his film, they saw a player who could get his outside shot up in a variety of ways:

The trend here is that Nunez is not just a guy who is going to sit in the corner and shoot off the catch. He’s a ‘shooter’ but he can get (and make) jump shots of different types from different spots on the floor. The more recent the Nunez film, the more aggressive he is searching for his shot off the dribble. He gets great elevation on his pull-up jumper and hits consistently from the mid-range and out to three.

Given his profile, Nunez was destined for a quiet freshman year; while it would've been nice for him to sink a few more of his late-game attempts, I wouldn't read much into a sample of 13 shots out of some funky walk-on-time "sets."

The greater concern may be Nunez's defense. He looked a step slow on the ball in the exhibition and wasn't always sound with his assignments. A certain amount of that is to be expected with any inexperienced player, but if Nunez stands out as particularly negative he could lose a lot of playing time when Wagner returns. He should be a reliable bench shooter, one that can be used spotting up or running off off-ball action; we'll see if he can add more than that.

#22 Cole Bajema

​we may have to wait to see more of this [Campredon]

Year: Freshman
Height/Weight: 6'7"/175
Commitment Post: Hello (August 2018)

Bajema was another signature Beilein recruit: an out-of-nowhere late-bloomer who ended up as a four-star ranked just outside the composite top 100 and as high as #74 overall on 247. His primary standout attribute was shooting, though scouts were quick to note he was, well, wait for it:

... has a lot of value as a shooter, but he’s not just that. He showed good footwork, fine mechanics, deep range and the ability to deck it and make a play. He’s still thin at this stage, but he’s extremely fluid, has long arms and is oozing with potential.

There's some hope that he can be a bench gunner this year and grow into something more, somewhat like Stauskas before him.

Despite adding some bulk since his senior year, though, Bajema still looks quite thin. His deployment in the SVSU exhibition may portend a redshirt; he saw only five minutes while eight players—the eight expected to comprise the pre-Wagner rotation—got at least 17. If he can get on the floor, it's because hit outside shooting is too good to leave on the bench. If he doesn't, it's because a year of Camp Sanderson proved to be a prerequisite.

Outlook

I should note in this section that my 4.5/5 grade for the guards was based mostly on Zavier Simpson, since players from this section—namely Wagner, Nunez, and Bajema—could potentially take some or all of the minutes at shooting guard when Michigan is at full strength. The presence of Brooks provides a half-decent floor; there's potential for much more, particularly if Wagner settles there.

On the wing, Michigan could have a pair of top-line starters in Livers and Wagner, though we'll have to wait on the latter. Nunez becoming a viable starter would be a nice surprise; even if he can become a usable bench player, that's needed progress from someone who could fill a critical role as a shooter. I'm guessing Bajema either redshirts or plays Freshman Nunez minutes.

The Wagner injury shows how quickly this team goes from players we're pretty confident about to players surrounded by a certain level of uncertainty. This team's versatility, particularly that of Livers, should cover for a lot until his return, and then that aspect of the squad will only be magnified. There's not a top-tier three-level scorer unless Livers or Wagner surpasses reasonable expectations; otherwise, this is a solid group with great length and a lot of shooting upside.

Grade: 3.5/5