Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in this week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One

To quickly recap part one:

Tier I: Michigan State
Tier II: Maryland, Ohio State
Tier III: Purdue, Michigan
Tier IV: Illinois, Wisconsin

This conveniently split the conference in half and also serves as my dividing line for which teams will make the NCAA tournament. The next two, perhaps three, teams have a chance to at least make a run at the bubble; I'm less optimistic about the rest, and the bottom of the conference could get ugly.

Tier V: Fatally Flawed?

​Joe Wieskamp can fill it up, but can Iowa stop anyone? [Patrick Barron]

8. Penn State

Coach: Patrick Chambers (ninth year at PSU)
2018-19 record: 14-18 (7-13 Big Ten), 1-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG Jamari Wheeler, G Myles Dread, F Lamar Stevens, C Mike Watkins
Key departures: G Josh Reaves, G Rasir Bolton
Top newcomer: G Curtis Jones (Oklahoma State transfer)

There are a couple ways to think about Penn State. One is that they've hit on an intersection of talent and experience that often leads to a breakthrough year. They got stronger as 2018-19 went on, finishing 7-3 in conference play with wins over Michigan and Maryland. The numbers are in their favor: KenPom's preseason rankings put them 43rd, while Bart Torvik's has them all the way up at 19th. In forward Lamar Stevens, they return a first-team coaches all-conference player who turned down a chance at the NBA.

The other is that they remain Penn State, a program that has made four NCAA tournament appearances since 1965, produced two draft picks since 1984, and finished above tenth in the conference once in eight seasons under coach Pat Chambers. Their last time in the Big Dance? 2011, the year before Chambers took over. Before that 7-3 finish last season, they started 0-10 in the Big Ten. Stevens put up big counting stats but one could easily argue a player with greater efficiency should've had his coaches first-team spot—the media gave it to Minnesota's Jordan Murphy instead.

I lean towards the second way of thinking. While Stevens is a good player, he's asked to carry an unreasonable load that stretches him beyond his natural skill set—he made 46% of his 454(!) two-point attempts and only 20-of-91 three-pointers last season. That's unlikely to change; aggressive lead guard Rasir Bolton, a promising shotmaker who played 2/3rds of the team's minutes as a freshman, transferred to Iowa State, and no other player projects to take on major usage. Even if sophomore shooting specialist Myles Dread breaks out, he lingered below 14% usage last season, a really low figure; he'd have to add a lot to his game.

Losing pesky wing Josh Reaves, meanwhile, will hurt the defense, though perhaps not as much as his lockdown reputation suggested—PSU's defensive numbers were nearly identical with him on and off the court, per Hoop Lens.

The frontcourt of Stevens and Mike Watkins is excellent when Watkins is on, which has only been for some of an up-and-down three years in which he's publicly and bravely dealt with mental health problems. The backcourt gives me greater pause; point guard Jamari Wheeler was mostly a spectator last year, sophomore swingman Myreon Jones had a disastrous debut season, and the transfers they're using to plug holes are either inexperienced (redshirt sophomore wing Izaiah Brockington from St. Bonaventure) or searching for success (wing Curtis Jones, who's bounced from Indiana to Oklahoma State to PSU).

Maybe with a different coach I'd be more of a believer, but I thought Chambers had a more talented team two years ago, and the best he could do was win an NIT title. He'd be under more pressure if Penn State cared much about hoops.

9. Iowa

Coach: Fran McCaffrey (tenth year)
2018-19 record: 23-12 (10-10), 1-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG Jordan Bohannon (inj.), G Joe Wieskamp, C Luka Garza
Key departures: G Isaiah Moss, F Tyler Cook, F Nicholas Baer
Top newcomer: F Patrick McCaffrey

The Hawkeyes squeaked into the tourney last year as a ten-seed that, as we've come to expect from Fran McCaffrey squads, relied on an excellent offense (#15 on KenPom) to cover for an abominable defense (#111, worst in the B1G).

It should be more of the same this year, but worse. The status of point guard Jordan Bohannon, whose off-the-dribble outside shooting is critical to the offense's success, is very much in doubt after he underwent hip surgery in May. While he'll try to give it a go this season, quite possibly starting with their exhibition game on Monday, he has a redshirt available. The situation feels reminiscent of Spike Albrecht's final year at Michigan, when following hip surgery he looked like a shell of himself for the first eight games before shutting it down and maintaining his final season of eligibility. Valparaiso transfer Bakari Evelyn has some similarities to Bohannon's game but was less efficient at a lower level; the other options at point guard are freshmen of some variety.

Meanwhile, burly forward Tyler Cook left for the NBA and guard Isaiah Moss transferred to Kansas, taking with them much-needed size, versatility, and athleticism from a team that already struggles to stop opponents from scoring. Junior center Luka Garza is a skilled scorer who gives almost all of it back on the other end. None of the other bigs project as defensive stoppers, either.

There's plenty of talent on the wings, headlined by sophomore Joe Wieskamp, who looks like a potential star after posting 56/42/77 (2P%/3P%/FT%) shooting splits. 6'5" sophomore Connor McCaffrey, Fran's kid, has the versatility to help out at point guard, though he had the usual freshman issues as a distributor and was a bad defender even by Iowa standards. Another McCaffrey, Patrick, is a 6'9" four-star freshman. That's a lot of youth, though, and young guys tend to struggle on defense even when not in a program that's ranked 123rd, 242nd(!), and 111th on that end over the last three years.

Even if Iowa finds a way to replicate last year's offense while Bohannon is, at best, playing at less than 100%, I have a hard time seeing a way their inability to slow opponents doesn't keep them from the tourney. They should be fun to watch, though—they're going to turn up the tempo and try to out-gun teams.

[After the JUMP, we get more definitive.]

Tier VI: Fatally Flawed.

Gabe Kalscheur is one of the conference's best young scorers. [Ben Ludeman]

10. Indiana

Coach: Archie Miller (third year) 
2018-19 record: 19-16 (8-12), 0-2 vs. Michigan
Key returners: G Devonte Green, G Rob Phinisee, G Aljami Durham, F Justin Smith
Key departures: F Romeo Langford, F Juwan Morgan
Top newcomer: C Trayce Jackson-Davis

Archie Miller's seat is unusually hot for a coach in year three, but his teams have managed to be worse than the ones that got Tom Crean fired, and this year's edition loses by far its two best players, one of whom may have slid out of the top ten of the NBA draft because of how difficult it was to showcase talent in this offensive environment. It's good times in Bloomington!

Crean's teams had unreliable defenses but could lean on offenses that regularly made the top ten in efficiency. Miller's teams thus far have improved defensively on Crean's last few IU squads but are still well short of elite on that end; meanwhile, his offenses have ranked #92 and #82 in his first two seasons.

Romeo Langford may have been disappointing as a shooter, but he was the only Hoosier perimeter player who could create and finish shots at the rim, and he was the rare IU player that took care of the basketball. He's gone, as is Juwan Morgan, who was a great finisher, a monster on the boards, and somehow managed to hold the team together as best he could on defense despite playing mostly as a 6'7" center (via Hoop Lens):

Former blue-chip recruit Jerome Hunter may be able to fill the void left by Langford after redshirting his freshman year with an injury. Michigan was going after Hunter hard before the Hoosiers landed him and they eventually turned to Iggy Brazdeikis, and he has similar scoring upside, though it could take him some time to get comfortable after going a full year without playing a competitive basketball game. Outperforming Langford would be a tough ask. Instead, IU will most likely try to replace that production with incremental improvements from forward Justin Smith and guards Devonte Green, Rob Phinisee, and Aljami Durham. The good and bad news is all four have major holes in their game to patch up, so improvement is both possible and necessary.

Center is going to be a problem. De'Ron Davis is a skilled post player whose athleticism has been sapped by injuries; he hasn't cracked a third of the team's minutes since his freshman year and it's unclear if he could handle a much larger workload. The Hoosiers brought in Butler transfer Joey Brunk, whose on-off numbers suggest he may be the worst defensive center in the country to get major playing time. Their best hope for a solid player here is true freshman Trayce Jackson-Davis, a four-star freshman listed at 6'9", 230.

Maybe things click into place for Miller, but belief in that is more based on standard expectations for Indiana basketball than anything we've seen on the court since he took over. While this could turn around, it looks more likely to get ugly.

11. Minnesota

Coach: Richard Pitino (seventh year)
2018-19 record: 22-14 (9-11), 0-3 vs. Michigan
Key returners: G Gabe Kalscheur, C Daniel Oturu
Key departures: G Dupree McBrayer, F Amir Coffey, F Jordan Murphy
Top newcomer: PG Marcus Carr (Pitt transfer)

Let's see how Minnesota did when both Amir Coffey and Jordan Murphy, who are now in the professional ranks, were not on the floor in 2018-19:

Oh. That's rather foreboding. A -0.37 PPP efficiency margin, even in a limited (~2 game) sample, is a disaster. Maybe if you only remove one or the other?

Well that's not good at all. Who's their coach again?

when the ref shows no respect for nepotism [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Oh boy.

Sniper Gabe Kalscheur flashed the ability to continue scoring efficiently while upping his usage. Center Daniel Oturu is one of the league's most promising centers. Both should take freshman-to-sophomore leaps. That part's good.

No other significant contributor returns and the top incoming recruit ranked 98th in the class, with two of the four incomers placing below 400th on the composite. There are a few transfers, headlined by redshirt sophomore Marcus Carr, a high-volume lead guard who played top dog too soon as a freshman on an awful Pitt team, and grad transfer Alihan Damir (Drexel), who should slide into the starting lineup next to Oturu.

Overcoming the losses on this team would be a tall order for a lot of coaches. Richard Pitino is more likely than most in this conference to come up short. I'm evidently down on the coaching in the bottom half of the conference.

12. Rutgers

Coach: Steve Pikiell (fourth year)
2018-19 record: 14-17 (7-13), 0-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: G Geo Baker, G Montez Mathis, F Ron Harper Jr., C Myles Johnson
Key departures: F Eugene Omoruyi, C Shaquille Doorson
Top newcomer: F Akwasi Yeboah (Stony Brook transfer)

Not in the last tier! That's something!

Rutgers suffered a brutal, unexpected departure when leading scorer and rebounder Eugene Omoruyi transferred to Oregon, choosing to sit out a year instead of continue as the focal point of the Scarlet Knights. The stated reason? He'd like to make the NCAA tournament. Ouch.

Even so, Steve Pikiell has this team on the rise. Eddie Jordan's final team ranked 279th on KenPom, and he never finished higher than 170th at Rutgers. Pikiell topped that in his first year (135th) and cracked the top 100 last year at #78 while winning four more games in conference play than the previous season. His last two squads have placed in the top 50 on defense and they consistently give strong effort.

While offense has been a struggle, RU made a substantial leap from awful to merely bad last year, and they've got capable (if inefficient) scorers with the likes of Geo Baker, Ron Harper Jr., and Caleb McConnell. The addition of former Stony Brook forward Akwasi Yeboah gives them a player used to taking on a huge role for an underwhelming team, which should come in handy.

The overall trajectory of this program is pointing up despite the transfer of Omoruyi, though that likely wipes out any hopes for a magical postseason run to anything better than the NIT this year. Rutgers makes opposing teams look like, well, Rutgers often enough to be dangerous, especially when you catch yourself napping in the sleepy atmosphere of the Rutgers Athletic Center.

Tier VII: Abject

Anthony Gaines and friends will find the going tough. [Bryan Fuller]

13. Nebraska

Coach: Fred Hoiberg (first year)
2018-19 record: 19-17 (6-14), 0-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: F Thorir Thorbjarnarson
Key departures: everyone else
Top newcomer: G Cam Mack (JuCo transfer)

Pick a player on last year's Nebraska team that got media darling Tim Miles fired. Unless you're familiar with Icelandic bench guys, that player is gone. Isaiah Roby? Gone. James Palmer? Gone. Glynn Watson? Gone. Johnny Trueblood? Gone. (Yes, that's a real person.) Both members of last year's freshman class? Gone. Only Thorir Thorbjarnarson remains, and he was just an ineffective bit player, albeit a spectacularly named one, as a sophomore backup forward.

In to survey the wreckage is former Iowa State and Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, who kickstarted a similar rebuilding project in Ames with lots of transfers of every variety. That strategy remains in place; the entire projected starting lineup comes from inherited transfers (Robert Morris volume scorer Cam Mack, who sat out last season), grad transfers (FGCU's Haniif Cheatham and Seattle's Matej Kavas), or the freshman class (three-star Parisian big man Yvan Ouedraogo). The bench is more transfers, three-star freshmen, and ThorThor.

It's going to take a while for this group to gel, and I don't expect this quick-fix team to do much. Hoiberg was 3-13 in the Big 12 in his first year at Iowa State before going 12-6 and nabbing a tourney bid in year two. Expect a similar path here, at least in year one.

14. Northwestern

Coach: Chris Collins (seventh year)
2018-19 record: 13-19 (4-16), 0-2 vs. Michigan
Key returners: G Anthony Gaines, G AJ Turner, F Miller Kopp, F Pete Nance
Key departures: G Ryan Taylor, F Vic Law, C Dererk Pardon, C Barrett Bensen
Top newcomer: F Robbie Beran

How bad is it?

This bad.

The Chris Collins era has gone entirely off the rails since the surprise tournament appearance in 2017. Every last trace of on-court production from that team is gone, and this is Northwestern's new foundation:

• A 2017 recruiting class consisting of one player, woeful-shooting guard Anthony Gaines.
• A signature 2018 class headlined by Pete Nance and Miller Kopp, who both looked overwhelmed as freshmen.
• A 2019 class headlined by, and I couldn't possibly make this up, a low four-star forward from Virginia named... Robbie Beran. At 6'9", 210, he's expected to play major minutes at center.

Collins can assemble some talent and put together a defense but his offensive acumen seems, if anything, to be eroding; last year's team, which Collins seemed to forget needed a point guard, finished 204th on KenPom. His roster construction appears to be karmic retribution for what he did to Johnnie Vassar.

They're going to be awful and I'm going to enjoy it.

A Second Opinion

Alex Cook put together his ordered list with some commentary as well. It turns out we're generally in agreement about how things will shake out, especially for Northwestern.

1. State — Returning 1st-Team AA PG pretty much never happens; MSU ranked highly on the strength of the Winston-Tillman pairing. Easy favorite.

2. Ohio State — Wesson should be really productive, nice player to build around. Intriguing players around him, PG will be an upgrade.

3. Maryland — Lost their best player but have a senior leader and a great sophomore class. Not buying some of the excessive hype.

4. Purdue — Williams/Haarms will necessitate a return to a post-heavy Painter style. They need some shooting to emerge; Proctor will be important.

5. Michigan — A great core, but so many unknowns otherwise. However the season shakes out, it will all look much different. Defense will be strong.

6. Illinois — Year 3 for Underwood; has what looks like a good, fun team. Might still be held back by a bad defensive scheme.

7. Wisconsin — Losing Happ could be a seismic event for their program. Offense seems to lack punch, defense should be solid.

8. Penn State — Stevens will put up numbers and they could be decent but Chambers has had losing records 7 of 8 seasons at Penn State.

9. Indiana — Better hope the Ewing Theory works when a mediocre team loses its two most talented players. Very rough start for Archie.

10. Iowa — Bohannon injury is devastating, otherwise Iowa is Iowa: should be able to put up plenty of points and liable to give up plenty.

11. Rutgers — Inexplicable Omoruyi transfer kills a lot of hope, but Pikiell has things trending in the right direction.

12. Minnesota — Murphy and Coffey carried the team to a surprise tournament bid last year, both are gone and they should regress a lot.

13. Nebraska — A new coach having to replace an entire roster usually portends a rough season.

14. Northwestern — [Chris Collins pounding the floor with a pained expression]