Rush Offense vs S&P Rush Defense.
Wisconsin's run defense is 25th on Football Outsiders Rush Defense metric.
Michigan ran for 140 on the 5th best one, which is Purdue.
They ran for 271 on the 21st best in Indiana.
215 on the 29th in Florida.
Add in two 300 plus days in the last three weeks, and I have to ask:
Why can't we run on Wisconsin?
November 14th, 2017 at 7:37 PM ^
It's not that we "can't" it's more that they probably won't respect our pass offense and stuff the box like PSU did. Those other teams weren't as good overall on D as Wisconsin is either.. soo, grain of salt and all.
Not saying we won't be able to have success though.
November 15th, 2017 at 9:07 AM ^
November 15th, 2017 at 11:24 AM ^
But the motion that we have allows RB and TE to get open for decent gains. If Peters hits a WR for a long-ish gain, we should be able to get the running game going.
November 15th, 2017 at 12:17 PM ^
This seasons motto:
"If [insert QB] hits a WR for a long-ish gain, we should be able to get the running game going."
November 15th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^
"Do not be deceived.." below the banner.
Paging Supreme Leader Brian!
November 15th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
As much as I hope it's true, we haven't really been afforded an opportunity to see if Peters IS worth respecting yet.
November 14th, 2017 at 7:37 PM ^
Just a thought.
Just hope the TEs get separation early to open the run up.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:42 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 9:25 PM ^
The TEs making plays is key to winning this game. As well as our run defense showing up strong.
The last three games are a testament to that has been working for us.
Gentry, please have a monster day.
November 14th, 2017 at 9:47 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 7:41 PM ^
But there was no chance in hell at passing on them with O'Korn, so they loaded up the box. Michigan still paved them. I'm just pointing out that much worse run offenses found room to run on Wisconsin, which is why they aren't ranked super high in advanced stats on run defense.
November 14th, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^
I like our front seven on the ground against their front seven. We should be able to move their front seven, the key will be keeping the DBs away from the box. If they can put 8 in the box with no consequence, then it will be tough sledding. If Peters can hit just a few PA shots, then we should find success. I'm confident in our OL run blocking and in our RBs getting all available yards. We just need a modicum of a passing game to win.
November 14th, 2017 at 7:50 PM ^
without Chris Orr. Without D'Cota Dixon, you have a brand new guy on the TE's. There's traction there.
November 14th, 2017 at 7:54 PM ^
Something I found interesting: None of their DL have a success rate (measures Offense success when that player made the tackle, meaning that the lower the number the better) below 34%. For comparison, our DL go 12.7% (Chase), 15.4% (Aubrey), 15.7% (Mo), and 17.4% (Gary). Our worst DL (Rashan Gary lmao) has nearly twice as good of a success rate as their best DL (Conor Sheehy).
My deduction: our RBs are going to get to the second level quite often. Have to like Evans and Higdon getting chances to make LBs miss.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:37 PM ^
To be fair, that probably has something to do with them playing a 3-4. The DL is much more focused on freeing up the LBs than making the plays themselves.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:50 PM ^
I agree and I considered this, but I think you would still hope that 3-4 DL would be more successful at stuffing plays than...Khaleke Hudson (who has been great but is generally 5+ yards downfield tackling someone when he isn't blitzing). Additionally, their LBs aren't under 20%. Their best is Dooley at 21%. This means that their DL is not going to stuff guys and we are going to get to see our improved run blocking matched up against their LBs a lot. I still think this means that we are going to get our RBs to 3-4 yards with a chance to make a guy miss with regularity.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:58 PM ^
Oh yeah. It's definitely an area we can exploit, I'm just saying it's not a 1-1 comparison. It's definitely a good stat find as well.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:40 PM ^
that we should be in this one with more than a puncher's chance. I only worry if we go down a couple of dramatic scores that it will be hard for a still-young team in that setting.
November 15th, 2017 at 8:26 AM ^
Michigan really has nothing to lose. We are on the outside looking in for the B1G and next to no shot for the CFP. The Badgers on the other hand have everything to play for.
November 14th, 2017 at 7:45 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^
On the non Derrick Tindal cornerback, and pray Peters can hit one deep pass to him.
November 14th, 2017 at 7:59 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 8:06 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 9:55 PM ^
The throws are always frustratingly off the mark too. Like, don't launch a cannon line drive that misses the guy by ten yards! Loft the ball, let him go get it. Come on!
November 14th, 2017 at 8:13 PM ^
... I didn't realize our other WR's were so avg. shall we say (I'm being nice here).
November 14th, 2017 at 8:37 PM ^
Freshmen recievers suck. Never has that been more apparent than this year!
November 14th, 2017 at 8:05 PM ^
but it requires us to mix up our playcalling and not get predictable.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:14 PM ^
increase use of our RB's out of the backfield
in the passing mode.. will need more of that for sure
agasint bucky badger!
November 15th, 2017 at 9:10 AM ^
November 15th, 2017 at 2:27 AM ^
I think that the offensive brain trust has been holding things back for the past few weeks just for these two games to be honest. We have literally ran plays out of a total of 4 formations after we went up big on Rutgers...
I hope I am right, we will need a few plays breaking big to win this game.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^
This is going to be a rock fight. Early weather forecasts show winds 15-25 mph with temps in the mid 30s. It will make passing difficult. However, I do like Peters more than Hornibrook in those conditions. He has a bigger arm and a tighter spiral when he throws, he should have an easier time with the wind. Still tbd on the decision making/pass protection aspect of the passing game.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:54 PM ^
..could be one of those old single digit scoring games from yesteryear
November 14th, 2017 at 8:23 PM ^
that had success running the ball have a gap in S&P between rushing and passing of 76?
November 14th, 2017 at 8:42 PM ^
I'll respond to your concern, but first, want to hear something supremely stupid? Northwestern, maybe the team that came closest to beating Wiscy this season, had the ball with a chance to tie the game in the final minutes despite running for 25!!!!! yards. TWENTY. FIVE. WTF. Someone say the Big Ten west is boring, but I say that it is wonderful for its cold and concentrated stupidity.
But to your point, the two best rushing performances against Wisconsin this year have come from...Maryland....and Illinois??? So neither of these two performances were stellar (143 yards at 4.1 ypc and 134 yards at 4.1 ypc). Maryland has a 21 spot gap in their rushing and passing S&P ranks, Illinois has a 37 spot gap. So no, no such gigantic gap between the two most successful teams on the ground against UW. However, the best rushing attack against Wisconsin so far is currently ranked 24 spots behind us in rushing offense. I trust that we will be the best rushing performance against Wisconsin's D this season.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:33 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 9:02 PM ^
The problem is those stats have data and math behind them. It's a much more compelling argument than you yelling at clouds.
EDIT: oh yeah this is the Sparty troll
November 14th, 2017 at 9:28 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 10:04 PM ^
I'd say the opposite. They are not infallible, as nothing is, and when they fail a bunch of dads start yelling "See, it's all lies!" like bad cartoon villains.
I understand they're not infallible, I don't expect them to be. Are they better than the collective eyeball test of a bunch of engineers and HR reps who aren't quite sure what inverted veer is? Yes.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:36 PM ^
November 15th, 2017 at 2:33 AM ^
You do realize that WR is one of the hardest positions to transition from HS in to college ball, right?
When DPJ was in HS, like all the other 4/5 star receivers, all he had to do was shuffle his feet for a solid 3 seconds off the line and then sprint past the conerback...boom TD. He has never been shown how to properly run a NFL style route tree, or read defenses on option routes, etc. These things come with time, its not as simple as you think.
Once he and the other receivers start to ingrain these techniques, we will have one hell of a WR group.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:48 PM ^
A good question, as it cuts to the heart of the matter. If Michigan outgains Wisconsin on the ground they win. But Michigan will only be able to run the ball if they can effectively threaten to throw, at least.
November 14th, 2017 at 11:46 PM ^
whichever team has the better game passing is going to win. I'm not expecting either teams running game to be super effective. The team that's able to complete some passes to move the chains, put themselves ahead of the down and distance curve and possibly pick up a chunk play or two will probably win. I'm not expecting either team to carve the other up through the air, but if one team can get something like 15 for 23 for 180/190 yds that is going to be a huge boost for that teams offense.
November 15th, 2017 at 2:35 AM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^
November 15th, 2017 at 1:47 AM ^
November 15th, 2017 at 5:54 AM ^
Dude,
You are so on my team.