Hoops 2010-11

(Note: I'm making these under the assumption that Manny does, in fact, stay in school.) Morris - just slightly under (around 10 ppg) Morgan - tough one. I think he may be our starting center next season (though he may not play Sims-like minutes). I'll go just a hair over. (6 ppg) Smotrycz - under by a little. It may take him a little while to find his best position. (6 ppg) A guy who I think may make a jump is Douglass. With Morris nailing down the point, Stu is free to play off the ball, where he's most comfortable. I think he's going to get his 3-pt percentage up into the upper 30s and score in the 8-10 ppg range.

This would be the best recruiting classes back to back since 02 & 03 (assuming two more recruits sign): 2002 - Horton, Abram, Hunter, Brown, Ba 2003 - Harris, Sims, Petway, Mathis I think Morris has to score >10ppg for the team to have a chance next year. But I think he'll hover right around that number and no more since he can't shoot. The question with Morgan comes down to whether they sign Horford or not. I think they are both similar players in that they are limited offensively at this point but are capable of doing the dirty work (D, rebounding, blocks, etc.). I think the real question is starting lineup. Total crap shoot until the recruiting class finishes out. Obviously Morris starts and then one of the Stu/LLP pair. But then what? Novak probably starts despite his growing limitations, but does he start at the 3 or the 4? Ziegler would probably start at the #3 if he signs. If he doesn't, you probably move Novak to the 3 and start Smotrytz at the 4. I guess Morgan is your default starter at center.

Sorry, forgot to mention the Manny factor. If he stays, he's your starting SF, Novak starts at PF, and either Smotrytz, Morgan, or Horford is your C. That would be ideal obviously. I would love to agree with jmblue about Stu taking a leap. But I don't see it. He'll still be miscast next year as a PG since they have no other options. I think that stunts his growth. And at this point he hasn't shown the ability to hit 3s consistently. So now you still have him playing out of position behind Morris and he'll have to compete at SG with LLP, Vogrich, and Hardaway. I think Hardaway could be the sleeper pick. Right now this team would be great if they could hit >33% of their outside shots. No one can. So either Stu/LLP get better, Vogrich learns to play D, or Hardaway takes their minutes.

in a dream world... 5 - Morgan, McLimans/Wright 4 - Smoty, McLimans/Wright 3 - Harris, Novak 2 - Ziegler if he comes/Vogrich, Douglass/LLP 1 - Morris, Douglass/LLP There's no way the team starts out that way but this gets the majority of our talent on the floor and in their proper positions.

Novak will not just be a backup. He may not start but he will player starter minutes. He plays big minutes because he does the dirty work and Beilein loves that. I think most of you have him moving around a lot which is very likely. I won't be surprised to see a starting lineup/consistent lineup of 1.) Morris 2.) Novak 3.) Manny 4.) Smotrycz 5.) Morgan This gives us a great rebounding lineup with enough shooters to keep people honest. If we land Zeigler than I think he starts at the two and Novak becomes the ultimate backup guy playing the 2, 3, and 4 positions. With Stu and LLP backing up the 1 and 2 and Vogrich still not seeing a ton of time but maybe more of the Jon Barry role. Come in, give yourself a heat check and see where it goes. I don't see McLimans or Horford doing much next year.

Morris Under Morgan Under Mclimans don't think he will be ready to contriute Horford ditto Smotrycz should be able to contribute significantly Hardaway minutes will be tough to come by Ziegler don't think he is coming :( if he does will contribute mucho EDIT: didn't know METRICS = Smotrycz I will take the over

Interesting stuff jamiemac Darius Morris: Over - It's too bad it has taken this long, but we're starting to see why this kid was so highly touted. He will be on the floor for 35-38 minutes a game next year, and shooting a lot of free throws. I think that equates to approx 12-13 ppg Jordan Morgan: Is "I have no idea" a valid answer? No? Ok, I'll take the under. I do think, however, he is an upgrade over Gibby - certainly not in scoring ability but in rebounding, defense, and hopefully basketball IQ METRICS: Evan's production will be so impacted by other factors: Manny's decision, Trey's decision, Horford's decision... because I'm always an optimist I'll take the under assuming Manny will be back and Horford will be getting some opportunities as well. Nevertheless, I think we're going to love this kid If Zeigler and Horford turn blue...It would certainly rival if not surpass the 02-03 classes but that is a reasonable comparison (well played AC 1997) BONUS ROUND: OVER/UNDER Morris assists next season: 6.5 I'll take the over...As hard as this year has been to watch, it's been fun to see him gradually improve - the kid can flat out pass the ball.

I really don't think Novak will be taking Douglass' minutes at SG - most of Novak's skills don't really fit that position - Douglass is a better ball-handler, perimeter defender, and passer. Novak, ideally, should probably be playing at the 3, but if Manny comes back, he's obviously not going to take Manny's minutes. I agree that Novak will still get significant minutes, but they'll be cut - getting him 35 minutes a game is hardly ideal.

Oh, and, FWIW: I'm takng the under on Morris' 11.5 points. I really like him - he takes care of the ball, he's starting to run the offense better, and I think he'll be an elite defender. I don't think he's a good enough shooter right now to the point I see him scoring that amount of points. I see him around 7 or 8 ppg, but with 5 assists and 2 steals, and controlling TO's. I'm taking toe over on Morgan. He'll likely be our starting 5 next year, and should be able to get points just cleaning up some slop. He also has a mid-range game, albeit lacking Sims' range. I see him around 8-10. I'm taking the over on Somtrycz as well. I think he'll start at the 4 from the get-go, and will be the best shooter on the team. I'm guessing 12/13 ppg.

Assuming no Harris or Zeigler (don't think he's coming) Hardaway - I think you guys are sleeping on him. Dude is putting up huge amounts of points this year. 6ppg Vogrich will step up big time next year playing the 3 mostly and some 2 - 7ppg Stu is going average about 12ppg and 3apg (busts out of sophomore slump in a big way) playing 25 mins at the 2 and 5 at the 1 Morris will average 4.5 assists and 1 turnover and 6ppg Smoty (I like that Chris16W - don't know if you came up with that, but I like it) 10ppg 6rpg Morgan - 9ppg 6rpg Novak - 8ppg 5rpg 2apg (also busts out of sophomore slump) If Zeigler in - drop everyone at least a point and give Zeigler about 8ppg and 3rpg splitting time at the 3 with Vogrich and Novak. Grady? - 2ppg, 2apg?