Thursday Bubble Guide
Of course we need a win, but here are the rest of the games that could impact us on Selection Sunday:
Arkansas v. Florida 1:00 PM SECN - At 18-13, a loss here takes Florida out of the conversation completely.
St. Louis v. George Washington 2:30 PM NBCS - One of Jerry Palm's last four in, GW would be out of the picture with a loss here.
Tennessee v. Vandy 3:00 SECN - Vandy looked horrible against A&M, and hovering right around the last 4 in, a second straight loss would greatly sour their resume.
Penn State v. Ohio State 6:30 ESPN2 - Would be helpful if the Buckeyes went out quietly.
California v. Oregon State 11:30 FS1 - I think Oregon State is in the field on solid ground, but you never know.
Also, hope for chalk in every mid-major conference tournament.
Go Blue.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
italics mean they are a bubble team. Doesn't seem that complicated. Thanks for your contribution though.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^
I don't see any bolding, just italics. We want the italicized teams to lose, preferably in embarrassing fashion because I feel mean today.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
I think you're seeing things - i don't see bold, only italicized, and those are the teams we are concerned about.
i didn't track that.
We want chalk in all the mid-majors so that no undeserving team steals a bid, resulting in the regular-season champions becoming at-large candidates.
season winner of that league, or the most highly rated team from that league to win their respective conf tourney, right?
thanks jmb.
Correct. "Chalk" = no upsets.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
So, if we beat NW - and only NW - could enough bubble teams ahead of us lose that we would still get in?
Or is there such a backlog of bubble teams that would jump ahead of us if we lose to IU that there are not enough games left to play to wipe them all out?
March 10th, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^
you ask me (and about one or two other people on the blog in total), I think there could be enough carnage today alone that could get us in to a play-in game barring any unforeseen deep run in a conference tourney by a real dark horse. I think at this point, two losses out of Tulsa, Vandy, Florida, GW and UConn and either Valpo or Monmouth getting snubbed would get us in if we beat NW. I think the Indiana is an up-side only game, i.e. if we win today, I think the Indiana can only help us unless they beat us like a drum (entirely possible).
However, if you ask basically everybody else, we need Indiana no matter what.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^
Let's just win two games and remove all doubt.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^
It all depends what a NW does for us. If we jump teams like Valpo, monmouth and st marys with a win today its possible. If we are still behind those teams in the pecking order tomorrow morning even with a win it will take a win against indiana no matter what.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^
Really depends on the guys in the room and how closely they adhere to the math. A team like Texas Tech just lost to a team with an RPI above 180 and finished 9-10 in the Big 12. But the math says they are solidly in. Meanwhile we have a bunch of wins against teams ranked in the low 100's that don't look as good as wins against teams in the 80's and 90's.
Other teams on the bubble lack the quality wins we have and have bad losses. St. Mary's lost to Pepperdine twice (100+ RPI) and their only top-50 wins are against #47 Gonzaga (went 2-1 against them). VCU has top-50 wins over St. Bonaventure and St. Joe's, and two losses to teams ranked 150+. Akron doesn't have a top-50 win, and has 6 losses to teams ranked 100+. Providence has a couple of good wins (Arizona and a split with Villanova) but three losses to teams ranked 100+. Wichita State has one top-50 win (Utah). UNC Wilmington didn't play a top-50 team and has 5 losses to teams ranked 100+. Princeton has one top-100 win. So does Yale (they split their games with each other). Pitt has top-50 wins over Duke and Notre Dame (#37), but two losses to teams ranked 100+
Yet the RPI math puts all of these teams comfortably ahead of Michigan.
3 top-25 wins over major conference programs (Maryland, Purdue, Texas), and a worst loss on the road against a team ranked #76 (and loaded with blue-chip talent) seems hard to ignore, but the numbers don't help us.
March 10th, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^
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March 10th, 2016 at 11:53 AM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
For a minute I thought the title read Thursday Bubble Guppies.
March 10th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^
Just let go and accept it.
- Ms. Mary Sunshine
March 10th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^
March 10th, 2016 at 12:06 PM ^
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does the B10 Challenge win by the BIg help our chances?
So the robot turns into a bug?
Just hope all the tournaments stay chalk and we might have a chance regardless of tomorrow.
Vandy lost! That should help, right?!